Fed *Recession*, Trump LASH OUT, UAW Strike, Tesla & Housing Market Crash | Bottom Line Report [E.2]

oh boy there's a lot to cover in today's

a bottom line report housing has hit a

wall the UAW could single-handedly push

us into recession will Donald Trump run

for a third term McDonald's could

collapse thanks to California and

instacart's IPO China Tesla and more

let's get started first McDonald's

assembly Bill 1228 in California just

past the state senate and heads to

newsom's desk for Signature who is

expected to sign it this will include a

wage a floor at 20 of per hour for every

chain with at least 60 locations wage

increases would take effect April 1st of

2024 and no that's not a joke that is

four dollars and fifty cents higher than

the state's minimum wage for working at

a fast food establishment the danger

here according to the National Owners

Association which represents franchise

owners is that each franchise could end

up experiencing around 200 fifty

thousand dollars more in costs and

suggests that many McDonald's may end up

having to close as they can't afford

this remember most of McDonald's profits

their corporate profits don't actually

come from selling you food they come

from selling you the brand and the real

estate via an owner who decides to

become an entrepreneur and run the

business as a franchise here it is

directly from McDonald's investor

relation statement on franchise Revenue

McDonald's brings in 84 profit margins

on the actual restaurants that

McDonald's operates they only bring in

16 profit in plain English that means

about 90 cents of every dollar of

operating income McDonald's has comes

from the franchise model not from

actually selling you food they sell the

stuff to entrepreneurs who run the

franchise those are the folks who are

going to have to pay the higher wages on

two the UAW who is also pushing for

higher wages the United Auto Workers

Union could literally push us into a

recession at least that's what Morgan

Stanley thinks take a look at this

research Oregon Stanley researchers just

outlined that at this point only and

this is a big only but a quote unquote

only 13

000 of the 146 000 union workers that

are part of the UAW are on strike but

Morgan Stanley argues the impact to

economic activity could be large if we

see a full scale strike that lasts for

some time the effect of the strike could

be visible in industrial production but

most importantly end up hitting GDP of

course this will end up hitting non-farm

payrolls if we end up seeing these

striking workers show up as unemployed

for a longer period of time and that

could really weaken the Biden

administration's claims that Biden

Comics are really working hard

especially since we would see a spike in

unemployment in other words we'd see the

unemployment rate rise and the number of

jobs created a fall but take a look at

this and this is quite important there

could be a noticeable fourth quarter

drag on gross domestic product if this

strike continues specifically consider

this comparison to 2019. in 2019 a

limited strike of quote 48

000 workers which then represented about

24 percent of vehicle production at the

time took place in mid-september and

lasted through October that's about six

weeks at the time we had to take about

0.4 percentage points off GDP for the

fourth quarter now though if the entire

146

000 union members of the UAW end up

striking which has been threatened the

impact could end up creating a full one

percentage Point hit to gross domestic

product in America well folks remember

when GDP goes negative for two quarters

in a row you're in a recession again we

had that q1 22 q22 we all felt that

whether that was technically a recession

or not whatever what's more important

though is going forward listen to this

her current forecast is for a just 0.1

percent fourth quarter GP read if you

subtract off of that one percent thanks

to a strike you could literally be

sitting at negative one percent for the

fourth quarter in

2023. now that's not expected to pull

the entire year into a recession but it

is absolutely expected to set up for a

recession with Q4 and q1 2024 combined

unless this strike resolves itself soon

others then are naturally arguing that

but if these these workers do end up

getting their 40 percent pay hikes they

would end up contributing to inflation

which would be bad for the Federal

Reserve however Morgan Stanley disagrees

with this and they actually argue that

even if all 146 000 workers got the full

40 raise we would only see a at about

0.05 percent increase in average hourly

earnings over the next four years as a

bottom line bro it ain't gonna cause

inflation even if you give a pay bump to

all of these people but the strike could

lead to a recession and so what's the

latest on that negotiation the UAW

currently suggests that on Friday

September 22nd which is just a few days

away the next deadline will be struck

and then the big three could end up

facing even more strikes that is the UAW

would call on more individuals to stand

up and strike against what they call

corporate greed and specifically

executive greed with Executives facing

potentially per the UAW

wage increases of over 30 percent while

wages for workers have only gone up six

percent over the last four years despite

the fact that the average price of a car

is up 34 now this does somewhat

disregard the inflationary input costs

that have become more expensive to

produce vehicles but it does make it

clear that much like UPS it's probably

time for workers to get some form of a

pay bump so far companies like solantis

have offered a 21 pay increase but the

UAW so far says that's not enough and on

top of this we're now expected to

potentially see unions in Canada join

striking workers in America axios is

reporting we could see a 5100 worker

strike in Canada that would take all all

Ford workers and contribute to the

strike this is by the unifor union now

one thing that's been very misunderstood

is the average pay of actual UAW workers

Barons and the Wall Street Journal and a

lot of mainstream media sources have

been arguing that the UAW ends up paying

its workers around 66 dollars per hour

but most UAW workers throw their hands

up and say I wish I was getting paid 66

dollars per hour and it turns out the

mainstream media along with these

corporations are collecting together all

of the potential future benefits these

employees could earn from not only

health insurance but also potential

profit sharing benefits extrapolated

into the future and then calculated back

into their hourly earnings this is quite

deceptive because it makes it a lot

harder to compare how much individuals

are actually earning so I tried going to

some more on unbiased sources as much as

that as possible I thought one of the

easiest ways to do this was exploring

what zip recruiters suggest an average

UAW salary actually is which is about 25

dollars per hour or around fifty two

thousand seven hundred and seventy one

dollars a per year full-time employees

at the big three usually make a range of

between 18 to 32 dollars per hour

depending on seniority and those as the

UAW argues are wages that haven't kept

up with inflation it's also worth noting

that back in 2008 unions gave

substantial concessions to the big three

automakers because the automakers were

about to go bankrupt this is where Auto

Executives famously traveled to Congress

to ask for bailouts and private jets

wondering when they'd get bailouts and

Congress said you know what come up with

a better plan to prove that y'all ain't

going to go bankrupt anyway even after

we bail you out this has led others to

say this time is different and Congress

will bail out automakers this time

around for sure and this is all just a

political ploy to get more stimulus

money for the automakers but many are

saying there's no way in hell any

stimulus money is coming out of Congress

for legacy automakers so good luck to

the Legacy autos because nothing

bipartisan is coming also it's worth

noting a lot of workers currently

working for the big three are now

considered temporary workers who earn a

lot less and receive a lot less in

profit sharing benefits in fact

potentially no profit sharing benefits

making usually around 1578 to 1928 an

hour this is a far cry from the 66

dollars per hour some of the mainstream

Outlets are suggesting that workers at

the UAW are actually earning this is

because of the common number of 66

dollars per hour which again includes

all those future benefits being thrown

around in the media and then folks are

wondering why are the these union

workers on strike as a result we now

have union workers responding going well

I wish I made 66 dollars an hour here's

an example 38 year old GM veteran making

about 32 dollars an hour at a warehouse

Distributing parts to repair already

sold GM vehicles argues that newer

workers end up starting at 17 bucks an

hour they usually top out at around 25

an hour and he feels honored that he

makes 32 dollars an hour either way you

slice it though this UAW strike could

potentially leave the Federal Reserve to

say you know what there is too much

uncertainty here we could be on the

brink or on the cusp of seeing a massive

amount of either layoffs or unemployment

claims due to these strikes and a real

hit to GDP in which case we are better

off pausing to wait and see what happens

not only with the lagged effects of

monetary policy but also with this UAW

strike in fact institutions across us

Wall Street are now arguing it is

impossible for the FED to know what kind

of impact these UAW strikes are going to

end up having on our American economy

this is a big deal when Donald Trump was

asked about these strikes his response

was the Auto Workers are not going to

have any jobs when you come right down

to it because if you take a look at what

they're doing with electric cars

electric cars are going to be made in

China the Auto Workers are not going to

have any I'll tell you what the Auto

Workers are being sold down the river by

their leadership and their leadership

should endorse Trump the reason is

you're going to have Choice like in

school I want school choice I also want

choice for cars if somebody wants

gasoline if somebody wants all electric

they can do whatever they want but

they're destroying the consumer and

they're destroying the other workers the

Auto Workers will not have any jobs

Kristin because the all of these cars

are going to be made in China the

electric cars automatically are going to

be made in China Trump is not wrong

China makes a ton of electric vehicle

byd is probably one of the world's

largest Electric Vehicle Manufacturer

and hybrid manufacturer Toyota has been

a big hybrid manufacturer they're

finally transitioning into electric

vehicles we know that China is the

biggest export market for Tesla vehicles

in other words they make them in China

and they export them across the world we

know China is critical for battery

production but In fairness we do also

manufacture a lot probably somewhere

around 40 percent of Tesla's in

California and Texas and now we're

starting to produce them in Germany as

well so it's not only China but Donald

Trump does have some point here a lot of

electric vehicles are coming from China

I do find it interesting this tone from

Trump is a little softer on the electric

vehicle bashing that he was doing during

the Tucker Trump interview where he

argued that electric vehicles had bad

range he's walked away from the idea of

bashing the electric vehicles and now

says hey if you want electric you can

have it if you want yes you can have it

change of tune probably smart on the

topic of Donald Trump Donald Trump just

responded to the idea that Kevin

McCarthy and Republicans could end up

facing another government a shutdown

thanks to once again hitting a budget

negotiation stalemate where Donald Trump

argues that if we don't get a fair deal

we should walk away from the negotiating

table and let a shutdown happen remember

during the Trump Administration Donald

Trump was not afraid to let a government

shutdown actually happen to make sure he

got the concessions he was looking for

here's Donald I am proud to shut down

the government for border security Chuck

I will take the mantle I will be the one

to shut it down I'm not going to blame

you for it and now the president is no

longer willing to sign that short-term

funding bill and keep the government

open he wants his wall it's very

important that we have great border

security I think it's going to be over

with sooner than people think

but I will do whatever we have to do if

we have to stay out for a very long

period of time we're going to do that

and many of those people maybe even most

of those people that really have not

been and will not be getting their money

in at this moment those people in many

cases are the biggest fan of what we're

doing how do you know that all right uh

please major go ahead in case you don't

remember Donald Trump did end up getting

the whole government shut down to make

sure he got what he wanted but let's now

listen to what Donald Trump just said

about abortion since this is actually a

big deal to a lot of Americans I think

and I think they're all going to like me

I think both stars are going to like me

let me let me have to happen is you're

going to have to get this question

you're asking me a question what's going

to happen is you're going to come up

with a number of weeks or months you're

going to come up with a number that's

going to make people happy because 92

percent of the Democrats don't want to

see abortion after a certain period of

time why does smart response notice what

Trump does he Dodges the commitment to a

number of weeks in which an abortion

would be acceptable this really appeals

to evangelicals who say basically no

abortion ever essentially with the

exception of maybe maybe certain

circumstances where there's a threat to

the life of the mother or it also could

appeal to those who say oh you know okay

well maybe you an abortion is reasonable

up to a certain period of time Donald

Trump really playing it in the middle

here trying to appeal to both sides if a

federal ban landed on your desk if you

were re-elected would you sign it at 15.

are you talking about a complete ban a

ban at 15 weeks well people people are

starting to think of 15 weeks that seems

to be a number that people are talking

about right now would you sign that I

would I would sit down with both sides

and I'd negotiate something and we'll

end up with peace in that issue for the

first time in 52 years I'm not going to

say I would or I wouldn't I mean to

Sanctus was willing to sign a five-week

and six week would you support that you

think that I think what he did is a

terrible thing and a terrible mistake

but we'll come up with a number but at

the same time Democrats won't be able to

go out in six months seven months eight

months and allow an abortion and his

argument is really I'm gonna get it done

and it's going to get done we're going

to have a negotiation by bringing both

those on the left and the right together

and finding a middle ground and frankly

maybe Donald Trump is right here maybe

Americans in total aren't actually that

far apart on abortion especially since

we know that most on the left are not

okay with abortions Beyond about 20 24

weeks and besides that only about one

percent of abortions happen past 20

weeks anyway so most of the debate 99 of

the debate of abortions has to do with

the pre-20 week period so then we have

to ask ourselves okay is it five weeks

is it 10 weeks is it 15 weeks is it 20

weeks is it no abortions ever is it

abortions with exceptions Donald Trump

is taking a very interesting point of

view here by saying I'll get to the

bottom of it by bringing everybody

together and finding a happy middle

ground

I don't know that there are a lot of

Americans who could disagree with that

with the exception of course of

evangelicals who generally say no

abortion at all with the exception of

maybe risk the life of the mother but no

matter where you stand on the issue of

abortion it's obviously a very heated

issue that's why it hasn't been solved

it's been turned back to the States it's

worth noting how Donald Trump turns this

right back to what Americans want to

focus on which is we got it done

something is going to happen it's going

to be a number of weeks something's

going to happen

where the both sides are going to be

able to come together and then we'll be

able to go on to other things like the

economy our military Donald Trump was

then asked if he would consider running

for a third term which we know is not

constitutionally permitted and he made

it clear that no he's not trying to

latch onto power for another third term

even though some Democrats are arguing

he's gonna get in he's gonna try to make

himself a king a lot of this follows

Rachel maddows sort of argument that

Donald Trump will get in and make all

the rules change so that he can never be

dethroned again is that for life that he

gets to be president will we keep having

more elections or no

if every election is a new opportunity

for him to go to prison do you think he

allows us to have new elections

I mean if those are the stakes if

winning the election is his plan to stay

out of prison what happens in that

election if and when he does not win it

I mean if Trump and his supporters see

the stakes as losing and going to prison

or winning and being president and

probably president for life

how should we expect that he and the

Republican party and Republican

officials in swing states are going to

handle the conduct of that election that

Trump may very well lose that is an

argument that you hear some make others

say this is ludicrous he's coming in for

another term potentially or likely and

that's it let him have his term if he is

so rightfully elected now at the same

time in California you have Democrats

posturing and actually requesting the

California attorney general to have

Donald Trump remove from the ballot in

California citing the 14th Amendment

this is a way of suggesting that because

of j6 Donald Trump would be ineligible

to appear as a candidate for president

obviously you have those on the left who

say hell yeah get them off the ballot

and then of course you have those on the

right who say

can we just let people decide and let

the voters make the decision and let the

court of public opinion decide to the

extent of which we have free and fair

elections Apple phone lead times here

exploding unclear whether these are

because of supply chain constraints or

just massive demand look at this the

white titanium and natural titanium

taking a large lag time of almost two

months 59 days here in the United States

similar in China by the way look at that

the Japanese the Chinese the Americans

the Brits the Indians those in Hong Kong

everyone's sort of like hey we kind of

like the White and the natural titanium

better than the black and blue Titanium

with just a little over a month of lead

time at least in America this is all

thanks to Goldman Sachs suggesting that

the iPhone 15 pro and pro Max are seeing

the longest lead times across regions

while the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 plus

are generally seeing more normal lead

times so once again the iPhone 15 pro

and pro Max kicking but in terms of lead

times it does indicate a positive level

of consumer demand and an increasing

price slash mix for Apple which means

higher margins potentially higher

profits again with little transparency

into Supply which could also be skewing

some of these lead times in other words

if you have artificially low Supply you

could end up in a situation where it

seems like there's more demand for the

phones than there really is I wanted to

dive a bit deeper into this and I looked

up Nordic semiconductor Nordic

semiconductor does a lot of work for

Bluetooth and Wi-Fi in battery powered

devices there was a general slowdown in

demand as well as basically excess

inventory that led to less needs for

Bluetooth and Wi-Fi however these

devices aren't necessarily in the iPhone

they're usually used for home kit

devices or find my devices NFC related

devices so really you might not end up

being able to determine iPhone demand

from any Source you kind of just have to

look and go wow if you missed the order

window by 30 minutes you would have

ended up going from being able to

receive your iPhone if you ordered at

the moment pre-orders opened up which

was a 5 am a Pacific Standard time you

would have gotten it within a week that

following Friday which is just in a few

days if you woke up just 30 minutes

later you would have already been pushed

back three weeks so the question is is

there a supply chain constraint or are

we over supply chain constraints and is

demand for this iPhone really that

incredible well Goldman Sachs goes as

far as arguing one of the big reasons we

could be seeing the demand that we are

is because of well incentives from

carriers and massive carrier promo

emotions with ATT and T-Mobile and

Verizon offering anywhere between eight

hundred to a thousand dollars now they

do require in many cases the most

expensive 5G plans and service data

plans to really try to squeeze that

profit right back out of you these

companies are offering pretty

substantial promotions to get new

customers keep in mind something that I

like to do with my Apple devices is I

actually like to have two carriers on

one device so that way I can switch

between like a t or T-Mobile but if

you're gonna go between ATT T-Mobile go

for like ATT maybe for the 800-ish or a

thousand dollars off and then get like a

mint mobile because they just use

deprioritized T-Mobile bands which

de-prioritize sounds so bad but honestly

99 of the time they're good anyway and

the other time just use the ATT bands

okay but that's like hack if you wanna

you know instead of spending 75 maybe a

month and 75 a month which is 150 bucks

just spend 75.5 15 now you're a 90 and

you have two phone numbers and two

Services instead of just one on Deck is

the instacart IPO expected to hit for

thirty dollars per share they were

targeting 27 to 30 dollars per share

they're going to end up hitting likely

at that upper end around 30 bucks keep

in mind the arm IPO hit for about 59

bucks and ended up at about 58 dollars

in the last trading session though that

initial 59 was up about 17 to 20 percent

from where they were originally targeted

to be that doesn't mean card is going to

have a similar outcome keep in mind much

like the arm IPO the amount of float and

lock-ups that you're getting

ah they're not the best for probably a

long-term hodlers consider some of the

following details of the shares that

will be issued the public float of 14.1

million shares you can expect

potentially up to

56.2 million more shares to end up being

issued in the form of non-voting stock

that could be issued via existing

options or restricted stock units which

are basically employee compensation or

other 2023 Equity incentive plans which

is all just fancy English for saying the

float that exists for instacart may end

up for Xing over the next few years keep

this in mind also keep in mind that

existing stockholders will continue to

own about 95 percent of the company new

investors via this IPO will only own

about five percent of the company it's a

pretty small number the company is cash

flow positive for the six months ended

July 30th 2023 they had 242 million

dollars of cash flow 220 million dollars

of free cash flow and then income

matched at 242 million this is great

because it's definitely a turn from the

lack of profitability they've had in

Prior years especially during covid

although for the full year end of 2022

they did end up with 428 million dollars

of profit and the 2023 numbers they

don't actually look that bad gross

profit there are about 75 percent net

profit they're only at about 16 that's

because they spend a lot on Research

development and sales but get this

Revenue grew 31 in the last six months

compared to the prior six months and

they only increased sales and marketing

by three percent you're still paying

about 50 times earnings for this company

at 30 bucks a share 60 cents annualized

for earnings it's about 50 times

earnings so it's not bad if you you can

continue to grow hopefully the bottom

line the tune of 25 30 percent puts you

somewhere around a two Peg it's actually

not horribly unrealistic however there

are some big risk factors and in my

opinion those are the fact that only

five percent of the company is going to

be owned by new shareholders insiders

are likely to dump there are a lot of

shares coming out just like an arm I

actually think instacart has less

uncertainty than arm does because you

don't have to worry about armed China

but you also have competition I mean

instacart fairly says that right now

only about 12 percent of grocery sales

are online this is despite the fact that

instacart has 7.7 million monthly active

users over 5500 Brands and really

there's hope that instacart is going to

be in a lot more stores in the future

but if there's competition or stores are

reluctant you could end up getting some

resistance to seeing numbers actually

grow at instacart instacart is also

pitching that they offer AI powered

shopping carts which lead to potentially

15 percent more sales by basically

targeting people's preferences via

advertisements

and trying to use AI to profit more

money well it musk had some things to

say on Twitter over the last 24 hours a

first after the Wall Street Journal

published an article suggesting that

Elon Musk who's known for having a

potential contentious relationship with

the Saudis could potentially be in the

very early stage of maybe building a

Tesla gigafactory in Saudi Arabia well

Elon Musk ended up quoting this Wall

Street Journal article and saying it was

utterly false now this is entirely

possible because Elon Musk is also

meeting with country leaders across the

world from leaders in Indonesia to

Turkish leaders to literally riding

around the gigafactory with Israel's

netanyu and quite frankly probably don't

want the Wall Street Journal right on

the heels of you meeting Nathaniel

bitching how you're interested in doing

a deal with the Saudis probably not a

great look and maybe exactly why Elon

Musk right away started reposting more

pro-israel content on his Twitter right

after he replied to That Wall Street

Journal piece sounds to me like elon's

playing a game of politics but guess

what bottom line is he should be the

more he plays Politics the more money

he's gonna get for Tesla to end up

building factors wherever he damn well

pleases Tesla Model X has also seen its

delivery dates move back from being able

to get the vehicle between September and

October to October to November and now

to November and December implying that

the model X is once again becoming more

popular the model X being the seven seed

version that a lot of people like unless

you actually want to use the trunk I

know that because I own a seven seat

model X it's a great vehicle but just

don't expect to use the trunk if you

have all seven seats out I'd probably if

I bought it again go for the six seat

especially since those back two in the

seven seater version

not that comfy or spacious I'd rather go

for the six seat version so you actually

have functional seats that's just my

free opinion Elon Musk also argues that

Tucker Carlson no matter how you count

it is getting a lot more views on

Twitter that's because people are

throwing up screenshots and showing that

Tucker Carlson's Trump interview got 265

million impressions on Twitter versus

the average nightly viewership that

Tucker Carlson got on Fox news of about

3 million now it's worth noting that the

Donald Trump Tucker Carlson interview is

not an average nightly interview so In

fairness if you look at average Tucker

Carlson views per video he's probably

somewhere closer to 50 to 100 million

impressions on Twitter versus the 3

million views he would get on Fox so

obviously we can argue that fox is

probably rigging maybe even how they can

via Nielsen view counts how they come up

with three million but usually what you

do is you take an average of 50 to 100

million impressions on Twitter and you

generally divide it by about a third to

about a fourth that would bring you down

to somewhere around 12 and a half to 25

million views which is still four to

eight x what Tucker Carlson averaged on

Fox

now Tucker's probably also posting four

to x times Less on Twitter because he's

not posting every single night new video

content like he was Monday through

Friday back when he was on Fox

Twitter in my opinion is also a much

more accessible platform versus having

to have cable TV to watch Fox or some

kind of other digital like DirecTV

subscription and then purposely going

into Fox to view Tucker Carlson which is

something you could easily do now while

still having a cut cord through like

again DirecTV they make it pretty easy

to kind of DVR everything like I have a

t and which is harder you know they own

DirecTV now and they let you have

unlimited DVR this is not sponsored at

all just to be saying like I think it's

kind of cool because then I go oh I

missed you know what that person said

and I can go click and go back and like

oh there it is great now let's listen to

Kathy Wood and her argument on Tesla

keep in mind she's going to talk about

one-third two-third that is of Tesla

revenues what are they getting now are

they getting the one-third now are they

getting the two third now and what could

that mean if today we're getting one

third when are we gonna get the two

thirds as Tesla investors let's listen

in what assumptions are made about its

business to get to that 1400 by 27

number

well about a third of our evaluation is

associated with electric vehicles EVs

and scaling them and as as you mentioned

turkey a plant there uh you know many

countries do want a Tesla plant because

is this is the new world right so that's

good this is all working out and then

the then two-thirds of our valuation is

around autonomous and autonomous taxi

platforms we think Tesla is in the pole

position here in the United States it

has collected more data about our roads

and actually other roads around the

world uh then all of the other companies

combined and therefore it has more

Corner cases and probably will be the

company that will get people from point

A to point B as quickly and safely as

possible so it's a winner take most

Market uh so whether it's our base case

uh it just that just means okay

autonomous uh perhaps takes a little

longer to play out uh or the bull case

it happens much more quickly

so even the the if it takes longer to

play out it's still 1400.

um and and that sort of that seems

extremely optimistic in terms of even

the regulatory

um green lights that Tesla would need

for autonomy it seems also you know that

the model where Tesla owners would own

their cars and then they would go out

and earn them money during the day by

driving people around that also seems

sort of optimistic in terms of the

uptake of that Kathy so you know for

two-thirds of the valuation do you feel

like that there's risk even around the

bear case at all with the two-thirds

well

um actually the risks are going down

because Regulators are very data driven

and what Regulators have been

experiencing especially in the

transportation sector is that the number

of auto deaths in the United States have

gone up has gone up during the past five

to ten years from thirty thousand to

forty five thousand after Decades of

falling thanks to Auto safety measures

so the national highway and

Transportation safety board and other

Transportation authorities want to turn

that Trend back down why has it happened

a lot of it is because of texting and

therefore a disproportionate number of

young people are dying in auto accidents

so the data supports what Tesla is doing

80 to ninety percent of all accidents on

the roads are caused by human error if

you take the human being out of the

equation

and and use AI to get people from point

A to point B as safely as quickly as

possible

um I think the the the authorities The

Regulators are going to be persuaded by

the data in fact they already have been

in terms of the fatalities in uh in

Tesla's cars they examine them they say

not Tesla's fault for the most part and

oh by the way uh people driving in Tesla

cars are 40 plus safer uh with autopilot

and FSD than in other cars nothing

absolutely Nails it here remember that

when Regulators found out that Elon Musk

had an Elon mode that basically let you

override having the nudge on the

steering wheel when you're on autopilot

which is just a way of saying you don't

don't have to engage the steering wheel

at all rather than Regulators shutting

Elon down and punishing Elon and Tesla

they said hey we want to know who has

this how do you enable it

and would you learn like we're curious

what what did you learn from not having

the nudge was was it safer was it better

hello this is The Regulators actually

doing what Kathy is highlighting The

Regulators are going

we we're not opposed to this if it's

better we we want to know we're data

driven here which I know saying

government and data driven in the same

sentence is like oh my gosh what are you

a Democrat let's try to put the politics

aside for a moment okay now if you want

to see some wild charts that consider

the following if you were told that hey

you could invest in a vaccine company

that would end up being extremely

popular during the pandemic do you think

that vaccine company would have actually

outperformed the S P 500 well if you

stack it up over well

the last year the answer is no last five

years the answer is no last over 20

years the answer is no throw in the

NASDAQ the answer is no as well and if

you now really want to see what

outperformed just throw in apple

yeah

ouch

it kind of goes to show that sometimes

investing in the right innovation of

right stock can outperform but boy that

could also end up being a lottery to try

to hit Apple that early on public sector

jobs are up 327

000 in 2023 alone according to the

Bureau of Labor Statistics that actually

accounts for one-fifth one in five of

every jobs created coming to you from

the government this is also usually

deemed to be a late stage indicator also

known as counter-cyclical in other words

when the economy goes into a

recessionary environment private

companies are less aggressive at hiring

individuals and this is when public jobs

potentially with more stability

reasonable hours and a sense of purpose

can step in and encourage people to go

for public sector work

now more private workforces are pausing

their hiring maybe even undergoing quiet

layoffs leading to more desirability for

public work again

potentially indicating a recession could

be here or near Mark Cuban is getting

heat for saying back in 2021 quote if

you work for me I require my employees

to be vaccinated unless there's a

doctor's reason why you can't be now

there are some messages from telegram

circulating that suggests when you get

vaccinated and tell others to do the

same all come on your podcast my choice

not to support people who haven't been

vaccinated this is a very much in

contrast to something like what a Vivek

aramiswami says who even though him and

his wife have differing opinions makes

potentially quite a reasonable argument

that a lot of people relate with today

the vague argues that he regrets taking

the covet vaccine and says if he had the

facts he had now would not have gotten

vaccinated and many probably agree with

that his wife on the other hand who

works with a lot of cancer patients

given that she's a laryngologist

something that having to do with like

swallowing and voice disorders but

anyway she deals with a lot of folks who

have undergone treatment for cancer

which is absolutely terrible knock on

wood nobody watching ever has to deal

with this it's absolutely horrible but

anyway she says she felt she had a

responsibility to have a vaccine because

of the patients she was around and this

sounds quite reasonable now just as sort

of a throwback back to my campaign for

governor in California take a listen to

this clip where I talk about the

constitutional right for a business to

determine their own rules around whether

or not they would require mandates and

this was in response to a question as to

whether or not I supported Gavin

newsom's mandates my opinion was clear I

was a big fan of individual choice and

business Choice path for ath agrees with

all the Republicans on stage in opposing

Governor newsom's vaccine and mask

mandates I believe every individual

business has the constitutional right

and every individual building has the

right to determine their own mandate

rules now let's talk about housing

having hit a wall and it's not just talk

it's literally what I'm starting to see

and it's spreading much like a covid

virus it's really bizarre and kind of

freaky it's something to pay attention

to and I'll tell you we are just

drooling at house hack for the

opportunity to buy even cheaper deals

we're expecting to buy about a hundred

unlivable fixed roppers and we can't

wait to go shopping here's where we're

finding weakness and where some pain

just hit the wall first of all Oregon's

been weak like all freaking year long

Boise's been pretty weak as well Austin

started booming though in Texas between

the beginning of the year and about July

but guess what over the last two months

the Austin Market based on what we're

seeing on the ground working with

Realtors has hit a wall this means we're

putting a pause on taxes until maybe we

hit a bottom closer to late October

November we're watching the data we're

going to be data driven on this but boy

some markets are hitting more of a wall

than others let me give you another

example we verbally floated an idea that

hey maybe we'd be willing to be at about

470 000 on a certain property in an area

where we started to see the market term

then we decided you know what Market's

turning in this area we're gonna wait

and let it bottom out a little bit first

seller calls us and says hey look you

were at 470. I I can't go all the way

down to where you want would you

consider 460 no would you consider 450

no okay then they let a couple days go

by how about 4 30. no and then they're

like okay okay okay we we know you've

wanted to be at 420 that's what you

floated to us after you kind of

initially were floating around 470

you're like maybe you'd be convinced at

4 20. how about we go for 420. and then

I'm like yeah that's how I felt a few

days ago now I don't feel like that

anymore and they're like oh

for me it's actually this perfect

experiment into what's going on in the

market because that's how I know what

competition there is if they keep

calling me back the competition just

vanished and that is different we did

not see that in July we have not seen

that anywhere throughout the year we

didn't really see it in August with the

exception of certain parts of the

country and now we're starting to see it

more and more now that we're in

September my guess is as I've been

saying for over a year and a half Q3 Q4

2023 is going to be where the party is

and I have a feeling the party's just

getting started so buckle up for a

roller coaster there's some

opportunities coming up How's that gonna

go make some money by the way stay tuned

because we've got some big announcements

coming for house hack on China Xi

Jinping snub Joe Biden last week in

favor of Biden just meeting with the

Prime Minister of China big slap in the

face and we gotta pay attention to

Country Garden this is China's largest

privately run property developer it's in

big financial distress and could be a

bigger crisis than ever Grant 2021's

default that could lead to some

disinflation as it continues to

contribute to the contraction of the

Chinese economy although so far oil

prices rising to now 95 bucks a barrel

of crude for Brent not so great for the

disinflation narrative but it is a pro

tightening Financial conditions

narrative which could lead the FED to

pause but definitely could end up

causing some inflation straight through

higher oil and energy prices not great

but this country garden issue big deal

and given that a lot of Chinese

households have lost faith in housing as

a safe investment you could end up

seeing a renewed deepening of the real

estate crash in China since Country

Garden focuses a lot on the suburban

area and even rural areas you might end

up seeing a whole lot more pain than you

might otherwise see in areas where

people are really focused on wanting to

live which are

bigger cities in other words maybe more

stability in places like Shanghai and

Beijing which are deemed to be some of

the top tier investable property markets

and everything outside of these areas

not faring as well on top of this you've

got a pretty big piece from a

presidential candidate in Taiwan he's

also the mayor of Taipei the capital of

Taiwan and the biggest argument this

presidential candidate makes is that

Taiwan needs to build up its Western

Alliance and its military capabilities

to deter China from invading Taiwan

while at the same time showing that they

are willing to democratically talk with

China well unfortunately for Taiwan

China doesn't seem to want to care so

much about talking instead China's right

back to flexing China flew a record 103

warplanes near Taiwan marking the most

in Bloomberg compiled data going back

three years the China activity appears

to be in response to American visits

said Taiwan especially Arizona's

Governor Katie Hobbs as tsmc is building

a massive facility in Arizona just

outside of well it's actually within the

Phoenix area sort of towards the western

side of Phoenix Taiwan now reporting

that the Chinese military presence is

posing a serious security challenge to

Taiwan but Taiwan also really concerned

because they import the vast majority of

their energy over 90 percent and that

maybe they've got to focus on nuclear or

some form of homegrown energy to finally

be less dependent on outside sources

that could easily be cut off and crimped

by China some say this is more saber

rattling from China but also counter

Sable rattling from Taiwan so they can

get more support from America now I

promise to snip it from our Daily Wealth

emails and in today's Daily Wealth email

snippet we are going to talk about

work-life balance since basically in my

opinion there is no such thing as a work

life imbalance you have to enjoy what

you do because ultimately everything

that you're doing every single day is

part of your life and in my opinion it's

the quality of what you do that matters

not the nominal hours that you spend so

maximize quality and manage your

productivity rather than your time spend

focused quality hours on your journey to

success it's not about the time on paper

that counts in a balanced life for

example if I spend two or three days

crashing hard stud crash studying super

hard for a test to make sure I could

pass that Series 7 broker exam like I

did last week that's high quality Focus

time on passing that exam with almost no

family time and that seems really out of

balance but then when I pass guess what

I get to celebrate with my friends and

family uh now

yeah

I can now enjoy quality time building

Legos with my eight-year-old going on a

run with my children I could spend time

not only playing Luigi's Mansion with

them but riding go-karts with them or

going to Chuck E cheese with them and

that quality time is so much more

valuable because it is in contrast to

the hard work that I did to Succeed in

Business and now I can succeed with

family and it's that yin and yang that

actually makes me enjoy both work and

family why not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin path right there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take