Elon Reveals SpaceX Explosion **Why SpaceX 36 Exploded** COPV Failure

If you haven't seen it yet, yesterday a

uh SpaceX Starship 36 during conducting

a single engine static fire test, which

is a static fire generally means you

stay uh seated in a position, so you're

not planning to take off. We actually

call the a static takeoff as a pilot

since obviously I'm a jet pilot. uh a a

takeoff where we will hold the brakes

and we will advance the thrust fully

forward to the toga position takeoff uh

or goaround position and and we'll just

hold uh the plane in position to static

fire up the engines. Uh so this this is

a common phrase in aviation but

yesterday a single engine static fire uh

test at the Massie outpost uh resulted

in a rapid uh unscheduled disassembly.

You can see that here in this footage

and you'll find that um Elon Musk hasn't

given us a sort of perspective on this

yet. Obviously, this it does carry a

little bit of um you know, egg on face

POV. I I am also I want to be clear like

a SpaceX investor, so I'm not like you

know trying to bag on SpaceX or

whatever, but it just it's just

something that they gives the media

classic ammunition again to kind of

complain. This is generally normal

though. Usually the reason we do these

tests is to see are we doing anything

wrong and what can we do to prevent

these in the future when we have manned

missions. Right? This is obviously an

unmanned static fire uh mission. Uh

SpaceX's official statement was that on

Wednesday, June 18th, at approximately

11 p.m. Central time, the Starship was

preparing for its 10th flight test and

experienced a major anomaly while on the

test stand at Starbase. A safety clear

area around the site was maintained

throughout the operation and personnel

are safe and accounted for. Starbase

team is actively working to basically

secure the test site and immediate

surrounding area. there is no hazard to

residents in the community and we ask

individuals not to approach the site uh

while they are conducting their safing

operations which is a bizarre um uh sort

of phrasiology they use but that's what

they use uh Grock somebody writes here

Grock simply reframed this post in short

but do it as an old man with wisdom son

when SpaceX Starships met its fiery end

on Texas night on that Texas night it

wasn't just a mental loss mental loss it

wasn't just mental loss Each burst of

flames teaches us like the scars on an

old man's hands. Progress ain't smooth.

It's forged in trials where failure

whispers wisdom.

No soul was harmed. Thank the stars, but

the path to the heavens demands

patience. I actually love this. Like I I

think it's it's totally true. It's like

you can't only have success in life,

right? So Elon writes just a scratch,

which is pretty classic. I love this.

Uh, I also think it's funny like Elon is

really like tripling down on this like

drug test that he has, which you know

plenty of people who are doctors online

are like, "Bro, this was not a

supervised test." Like a woman took the

sample, which is not who would supervise

a test. It's also a a sample that you

knew was coming and you could dilute

your sample by drinking a lot of water

or by knowing that it's coming and then

just being clean for some. this I don't

think honestly any investor like as a VC

investor in SpaceX I don't really care

this like Elon is Elon and it doesn't

matter to me so whatever people will

make a big deal about the drug use but I

figure I may as well at least mention it

but I want to jump into Scott's channel

here because he posted uh his thoughts

on this and so I want to give some time

to listen in uh so we're going to go

about 420ish into the vid and let's

listen in here see from this angle is is

that the initially this starts out as

spray of like cryogens, condensets

coming out of the nose cone area, right?

Yeah. It's not the propellant tanks now

on the Starship. Yeah, this could be a

sealant issue, too. Honestly, you get

such variations of temperature and I I

don't know. This is just speculation,

but let's see what the Texas um weather

is really quick. I'm just going to look.

Yeah, you're you're running between I

mean today looks like it might be a

little rainy in parts of Texas. you're

you're typically running in the 90s to

hundreds and you can cool down pretty

rapidly at night and sometimes just like

we've had with NASA explosions before uh

like the I think it was the Discovery

you really had like just like one O-ring

failure could lead to a catastrophic

explosion like this. It is terrible. V2

you have the liquid oxygen tank at the

bottom. Then you have the liquid methane

tank in front of that and then above

that you have the space where you've got

the uh you know the PEZ dispenser. But

more importantly, as we go up the side,

we also have the two header tanks. Now,

in the V2 Starships, we believe we have

uh a methane and an oxygen tank in the

nose. And then there is a down comer

which runs along the windward side. Now,

that windward side that is where the

heat shield is and it we see that the

spacecraft is splitting along that area.

So I'm really feeling that this failure

is related to the header tanks or at

least that is how we're manifesting now.

How it's this is an interesting point.

It's basically saying like the seal uh

under the the seal like think about like

a tin can. tin can may not be the

perfect example because it's rolled, but

it it you know it's likely that the way

these starships are assembled are sort

of almost like two like a half of a tin

can and then put together and then under

that heat shielding you have a seam and

it seems like there may have been some

kind of uh abnormal pressurization upon

ignition inside of the actual canister

that then led to that sort of rupturing

uh of the canister or or the fuel tanks

itself then leading to the rupturing of

the outside. Unclear obviously what came

first. We'll find out over time, but

let's keep listening because I think

he's got a good perspective. Actually

get this particular failure. I'm not

sure. Uh this could well be a kind of

like the seam right here. It's a perfect

example. design deficiency in the

spacecraft or it could be there was a

design deficiency in their testing

procedures which led to something going

wrong led to a line being say over

pressured rupturing and then failing we

will find out more in coming days but

anyway I believe this failure starts in

the forward section with the header

tanks and initially what we're seeing is

this sort of collapsing downwards and I

think probably what happens s is we have

the oxygen tank spilling hardware down

and something falls down, ruptures the

methane tank. You get mixing and that's

when the ignition starts.

Now, as this starts to fail, we also do

see what looks like a sort of a wave

shock wave or whatever some sort of Oh,

Elon did, it looks like, make a mention

that it looks like there may have been a

CPOV failure

uh at below rated pressure. Let's take a

look at this. Here's a SpaceX lounge

right here. Preliminary data suggests

that a nitrogen C uh COPV uh in the

payload bay failed below its proof

pressure. It further if further

investigation confirms that is what

happened. It is the first time ever for

this design. Uh let's just see what what

for some what some folks are um talking

about here. Here are some folks who say

hey who manufactures these? Is it SpaceX

here? Uh, let's see here. Uh, debris

washes it. Some have washed up in

beaches. Okay, let's take a look at some

of these. And SpaceX debris washed up.

How interesting.

Debris washes up on shore. Okay. Yeah.

You know, that's one of the things as

well that a lot of people talk about uh

is Elon's relationship uh with the

uh FAA and sort of the the allowance to

like go expectantly blow these things up

over the Gulf of Mexico is pretty dang

impressive. Uh but just so you know what

what you're looking at is these are uh

called composite overwrapped pressure

vessels. They're basically uh they're

almost like I feel like oxygen tanks

that you could go diving with or

whatever, but they're designed to hold

fluid under pressure. Usually some form

of fiber composite. Makes you wonder if

there's some like carbon fiber related

issue. Uh because you you can use carbon

and Kevlar on these and you know I

always get nervous now when I hear

carbon fiber after obviously the the

Titan though this is you know

potentially different. Uh but then

again, maybe not because sometimes these

carbon related tanks, they get damaged

and then people don't notice the damage,

right? Or like somebody drops one of

these. It's entirely possible one of

these was dropped uh in and and then

that's what ruptured uh leading to some

sort of internal then explosion uh and

then a tearing of obviously the outside

along a seam and then out of the heat

panels. So uh these

uh pressure vessels uh C O PV again

composite overwrapped pressure vessels.

Um

let's see here. I want to see who really

manufactures these. They're manufactured

by winding resin impregnated hightensil

strength fiber tape directly onto

cylindrical metallic liner. Fine. Mind

you, by the way, the uh Cirrus aircraft

are made out of carbon fiber, which is

very makes them very light. Pressure

containing vessels. Yeah, we know that.

And failures. Let's see here. A COPV can

be subject to complex modes of failure.

In 2016, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket

exploded on the pad due to a failure of

a COPV inside the liquid oxygen tank.

inside of the liquid oxygen tank. You

had one of these smaller tanks fail in

2016 on a Falcon 9 rocket. The re the

failure resulted from the accumulation

of frozen solid oxygen between the

COPV's aluminum liner and composite

overwrap in a void or buckle. Yeah. So,

some kind of actual like fracture or

fissure in one of these tanks. these

tanks potentially seem to be a little

less reliable

uh given that this has happened in the

past.

Uh so that's interesting. It makes you

wonder what kind of,

you know, verifications or inspections

you can conduct on these because one of

the problems with carbon fibers you if

it's used in these tanks is it's really

hard to identify if if they're actually

damaged. Uh, so

and they're designed to hold, you know,

fluid or gas or whatever at at a high

pressure. So, so it's not uncommon for

these to fail. Let's keep listening

here. The displacement happening that

shows up at the common bulkhead between

the fuel and the oxidizer tank. Uh, and

that very quickly then fails and we get

more mixing. Now during the sort of

breakdown of everything, the whole

vehicle then begins to collapse. And as

it falls over, I think the methane tank,

the main methane tank remains largely

unmixed because at this point it didn't

have a huge amount of of liquid in it.

But as it falls over, eventually it hits

the ground, spills, we get a large

amount of mixing, and that's where you

get the secondary fireball, which then

propagates up into the mushroom cloud.

Now, if you step through these videos in

the original form, you can also see

various recognizable pieces of debris

flo flying around. You definitely see a

few COPVS flying away. We see Yeah, I'm

going to jump now for a moment since I

think we've got sort of an initial

impression from him. We've got some

initial impressions regarding the COPVS,

but I want you to take a look at this.

This is a 2021 article where they

actually talk about these pressure

vessels. uh and they remain a challenge

for engineers to unravel. Now, keep in

mind this is from 2021, but it is a NASA

blog piece, which I think is very

interesting. Uh these vessels are

ubiquitous for NASA. They are found on

launch vehicles and spacecraft. They are

critical containers

uh and suppliers of propellants and

elements required for life support. uh

we've invested a significant amount of

time and resources to better understand

how they work and more importantly how

they can fail because should they fail

the catastro the results could be

catastrophic. Well, we just saw that. We

saw that in Falcon 9 in 2016. We saw

that today and well I mean last night uh

as NASA's profile changes to more deep

space missions, in particular deep space

human missions, reliability is

paramount. Well, of course, COPV

behavior remains difficult to

understand. I I'm telling you it's the

composite f carbon fiber. Uh it's a

complex stress state that exists between

the liner and its overwrap and the

adhesive that holds it together. We need

to and adhesive by the way can fail when

you get temperature like rapid expansion

uh you know differentials and pressure.

Hot day, cold night, you know, adhesives

can wear away over time. We need to

understand not only the manufacturing

process but the material compatibility

fine. Today in many cases COPVS are

blown down systems. Their pressure is

reduced with use. Okay. COPVs used on

launch vehicles leave the ground at

their highest pressure. So that is your

most stressful point and as their

contents are depleted, the pressure

drops. This makes sense. Sort of just

like when you go diving, right? Uh their

use environment is often measured in

minutes. uh with going back to the moon

and Mars, we have situations where COPVS

might sit at a lunar base or in a Mars

ascent vehicle or orbital platform like

a gateway. They would be long used

measurements. Fine. Okay, we've got

tests and analysis for what challenges.

Okay, so they decide they're designed to

hold liquids and gases under pressures.

They have composite overwraps. They're

made from aluminum, steel, uh,

elasttores, plastics, uh, composite over

wraps, a mix of fibers, resins. It's

just a mix of like everything. Okay? And

they go through a process called

autofredage where the tank is subject to

high pressure to compress the inner

surfaces, making them less susceptible

to pressures later on, right? So, you

overpress the inside to push together

the adhesives on the outside. That makes

sense. Uh, okay. The autofred edge is

where many questions begin. Do auto

fredages affect the state of stress in

the liner? Was there a crack and will it

propagate? Right? Did somebody drop it?

And can you even see that? Right? Could

be something as simple as somebody

dropping it like the UPS delivery guy,

you know. Sorry, I'm not trying to poop

on UPS and just saying, "Here you go.

There's probably more safety around how

they package these. But anyway, the

complexity of these is deceptive and

bleeds into all failure modes associated

with these temp tanks. And there are

failure modes we still don't fully

understand. See, this sucks. See, like

cuz people are going to bag on SpaceX,

but here's NASA in 2021 telling you like

we use components that we still don't

fully understand.

That's kind of bad if you think about

it, right? Uh I mean it's it's kind of

like

not good.

Uh so let's see here. Uh

threedimensional state of stress

changes. COPV failures can be difficult

to predict or understand. See this this

makes me nervous. It's like, yeah, you

know, these suck and when they fail, it

will take your spacecraft down because

there's so much stored energy, but we

kind of need them, but we don't fully

understand them yet. Like, bro, don't

put me on one of these spacecraft, you

know? Jeez, man. Uh so to help advance

COPV technology and be better prepared

for long-term space travel uh they've

been actively engaged at NASA to develop

state-of-the-art non-destructive

evaluation techniques. They've got a

working group. They do stress test

rupture whatever these uh cracks in the

liners can lead them to rupture uh blah

blah blah. So basically

a core element of the propulsion systems

or gaseous storage systems

at most critical pressure loads at the

time of takeoff are a piece of

technology, a piece of equipment that

frankly we just don't fully understand

yet. Here they are. Here are pieces of

them in in prior rapid unscheduled

disassemblies.

not great because it's almost like not

fair to SpaceX, right? Because it's like

and people blame SpaceX and it's like,

well, not even NASA understands why

these suckers fail. So, it kind of

sucks. Uh, and worth sort of paying

attention to a little bit. Uh, the COPV

failures. I'm going to go back for a

moment to the Reddit here just to see if

they have anything extra that's

interesting on this. Uh, let's see here.

uh they get tested before they get

shipped, right? But this is also like by

design that they overpressurize them on

the inside. But again, like how do you

identify if somebody dropped it? That's

my biggest concern. How do you identify

if the adhesives that are used are

properly fitted uh to where they won't

fail. Static fire means the ship wasn't

moving. Exactly. We already explained

that. Uh strut failure is therefore

unlikely, says somebody. Maybe there was

a valve failure. Maybe uh this is other

speculation. I mean, everything we're

doing is speculating, but I think these,

if you haven't learned about these COPVS

yet, it is a very interesting thing.

Good news, we found a whole new failure

point before it caused a flight issue.

Well, not necessarily. So, this is this

is the very optimistic take and and I

respect that because the optimistic take

is look, nobody was on the aircraft. We

have successfully destroyed another

aircraft that we can now learn from.

This is true. I give credence where

where credit is due. I I I respect that.

Yes, we have found another failure.

However, if the failure is COPVs suck

just like they did when the Falcon 9

exploded in 2016 and in 2021 NASA's

telling us, yeah, we still don't really

fully understand these and we kind of

just like cross our fingers that they

won't blow up. Then we're not actually

really learning anything. Then maybe

what we really need is a better

alternative. Let's just Google better

alternative to COPV in spaceflight. uh

because to me at least the limited

research that we've done on them and

talked about in this video because I you

know I I'm not trying to come across as

knowing everything here. Obviously

there'll be a full investigation here

and there's a lot that we could look at

here. It kind of makes you wonder is

there a better way to do this? Like take

a look at this. This looks like straight

up carbon fiber just like the Titan.

Dawn Aerospace

partner on smart coop.

Okay. So now we're going to have smart

COPVs because the old ones suck. So

maybe they have like AI in them or

something. Dawn continues to expand its

satellite propulsion system offering uh

offerings for uh smart COPVS with

development contracts blah blah blah.

The goal is to develop lightweight smart

composite overwrap pressure vessels for

nitrous based propulsion technology.

Fine. Uh COPVS are the next logical step

in expanding our product offering. Well,

it's their version basically of these C

COPVs. Propellants are traditionally

stored in metal tanks in orbit, but size

is constrained due to the weight of

metals. COPVs offer a lightweight

structure with high tensil strength,

making them withstand the harsh

conditions of space, including extreme

temperatures and radiation. So,

basically, we use these smaller tanks

because the big metal ones are just too

darn heavy. So, you use lightweight

ones, which oh wow, wrapped in carbon

fiber and epoxy. Fantastic. Exactly. the

tech like the problem with carbon fiber

is like if that thing falls I'm just

thinking it's hard to know that it was

actually damaged. You have to like

microscopically see that it's damaged

and now compromised and it doesn't get

better. Carbon fiber over time gets

worse and worse and worse. Take a look

at this. Using smart sensors in the

process accelerates the development and

gives much deeper insight into the

laminate status, hence the quality of

the vessel during testing and

production. So basically they're telling

me it's only smart during the

production. See, but what you need is

like a smart COPV that can tell you it's

compromised before takeoff.

Uh so some some work to do. It seems

like this is a very common issue here.

Uh developing ground test fiber optic

strain system. Understanding structural

stress and strain is important in

designing the COPVs. Alternatives to

this method include costly but powerful

co progressive failure analysis software

packages and digital imaging correlation

measurement systems. Basically scanning

all of your tanks all the time I imagine

is what it would take. Uh temperature

indicating paint will support monitoring

liner temperatures. Interesting. This

for testing purposes. Great. So it looks

like this is a pretty large issue that a

lot of folks are still working on. Uh,

and it doesn't actually seem like

there's a big solution here, which would

be the worst case scenario for SpaceX is

that there is not a solution yet for

these types of failures. I guess we'll

see. Why not advertise these things that

you told us here? I feel like nobody

else knows about this. We'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes.

Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you. Kevin Praath there, financial

analyst and YouTuber, Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.