we're toast

hey everyone meet kevin here oh man

let's just have the fed give it to us

already seriously we got a lot of

updates to talk about today not only

what's going on in the crypto market the

fed we got to talk about what's going on

what bank of america seeing happening uh

there's there's so much to talk about so

let's just get right into it look the

federal reserve

start here they just need to give us a

freaking hike already we talked about

this yesterday about how they need to

get more aggressive what's interesting

is we had about a 30 chance of getting a

75 basis point hike after that cpi read

on friday and that consumer sentiment

survey about a 32 chance of getting a 75

bp hike this wednesday

at the morning or monday morning when

the market opened well that shot up to

92.9

why because the chief economics

correspondent at the wall street journal

who's a pretty prominent fed watcher and

he tends to be right says yeah the fed's

basically baking in a 75 bp hike for

wednesday and so the market took an

additional little dumpy dumpy do

yesterday and the market has now priced

in

with almost certainty that we are going

to get 75 basis points of a hike in july

with a also 86.6

likelihood of a 75 basis point hike uh

in july sorry the first one being june

obviously wednesday and then another one

in july

now why could this be well because

remember the fed likes the market to do

its work for them so all the tank is a

little uh texty texty from like a neil

kashgari hey yo you know i'm the dove um

young i'm thinking 75. that's all it

would take at the wall street journal

and they're like all right thanks we got

what we need you know i mean that's all

it would take to move the market so uh i

believe it i think wednesday we're

finally gonna get the fed showing us

some balls some seriousness and some

sincerity and i want them to update that

scp like we talked about yesterday we're

not gonna rehash all that according to

bank of america though stagflation fears

in the economy are the highest point

that we have had since june of 2008 and

profit outlooks are the worst since

september of 2008 boy i hate comparing

to those uh those times and on top of

that credit spreads right now or a

measure of credit risk is now at the

highest level since april of 2020 when

we thought credit was going to get

frozen left and right and it wasn't

until the fed came out with the

unlimited bailout of loans that that

credit risk actually relaxed so now

we're at the highest level since then of

credit risk on top of that we've got

bank of america telling us that the most

crowded trades right now are along oil

and commodities 38 percent by fund

managers long the u.s dollar just

kicking butt and destroying most

emerging market currencies falling

relative to the dollar

shorting treasuries

shorting china stocks about nine percent

short treasuries about 13

long esg

environmental social governance right uh

long cash about four percent and long

btc four percent this is uh very

different from what we had in may of

2021 when the most crowded fund manager

trade was actually bitcoin

which obviously bitcoin is a nat one of

the most crowded trades right now we'll

talk about crypto in just a moment but i

think what we're starting to see here is

the beginning of a earnings recession

starting to get priced in global profit

expectations are expected to fall a net

72 percent weakest guide since september

of 2008

and the latest fund manager survey

suggests that investors are

substantially more net cash and net

commodities than ever before

since also 2008 but folks let's talk

briefly about crypto because i'm pretty

sure we broke the 200 week moving

average for btc of about 22 000 when we

fell into that 21 000 level and a lot of

this came after not only obviously the

tara luna collapse but the celsius

withdrawal

freeze suggesting that well we're

getting too close to the docks here

suggesting that maybe

maybe

we're gonna have liquidity problems over

at some of these uh lenders like celsius

hold on boys here we go

but now we've got concerns that mr

michael saylor's gonna get margin called

the guys got like

okay this blows my mind the guy took out

a loan

against bitcoin in march of this year

why the hell on the downtrend when we

know 2022 is gonna be a stupid freaking

market to be making risky trades why

would you take on

250 million dollars

of margin debt on bitcoin in march you

know what i think happened i think

michael still had got a little greedy

greedy greedy and decided oh look we're

having a rally bitcoin's rallying and

stocks are rallying briefly in those two

weeks at the end of march don't get me

wrong you know i bought at the fed

meeting at the bottom over there which

is obviously higher than where we are

now

but i didn't go greedy and go into

margin to try to amplify returns but

that's what happens man when the market

starts losing money people see the next

rally and then you know what they do

they go stupid and they start taking on

margin debt again because they're like

oh well if i go into margin then i'll be

able to offset my losses and try to get

back to the levels of wealth i had in

november but then the market turns dirty

again and then you get wiped out and you

go bankrupt it's so stupid uh and look i

mean like obviously tesla holding like a

billion dollars of bitcoin is gonna be a

little problematic in this next earnings

cycle because they're going to have to

take a little a little larger impairment

charge on that btc investment button

look it's a problem when you have the

ceo on twitter and we'll put this up on

screen of celsius saying hey you know

what do you even know one person who has

ever had a problem with drawing money

from celsius why spread fud and

misinformation you know this is like so

classic right before

a ponzi or i shouldn't necessarily say a

ponzi but a bank run gets exposed well

actually kind of is a ponzi because when

you rely like in order for you to pay

out 17 and you're relying on uh people

to deposit money to be able to fund

other people 17

that's basically a policy but anyway

when that gets exposed and there's a

bank run coming literally before every

bank run you get all the bank officials

look at history don't worry we have

plenty of money we have plenty of

liquidity no no you freaking don't

uh but the rest of the crypto market's

having issues as well i mean coinbase uh

is instituted now a mandatory 48-hour

white listing for uh any kind of

withdrawal account that you want to add

this used to be an optional feature

where you could uh you know have to go

through this 48-hour withdrawal process

as a sort of extra security well now

it's mandatory for everyone and to me

this is kind of like a a little bit of a

uh

how should i say this

i think they're trying to prevent the

massive withdrawals that they're getting

over at coinbase so they're like well

rather than just freeze withdrawals

let's just make it a little bit more

difficult for people to withdraw their

money under the guise

of security it's ridiculous at the same

time coinbase is laying off 18 of its

workforce they're cutting their

employees uh by uh that's eleven hundred

employees that they're cutting block fi

is reducing head count by twenty percent

crypto.com is reducing headcount by five

percent i mean and honestly this sucks

like i don't wanna pretend like i'm not

getting hit by this either i've invested

in block fi and uh private equity that's

probably getting screwed right now

i originally invested in coinbase until

i realized the sec oh totally screwed

over their lending and their uh their

ceo isn't the most upfront when it comes

to

their policies uh especially that

bankruptcy provision which i ranted

about on twitter about a month and a

half back but whatever you know it sucks

nfts are faring no better just in the

last 24 hours the nft index

yeah there's actually like an nft index

is down 23 in just 24 hours

board apes down 25 in 24 hours

uh obviously the michael sailor

information that we've talked about his

margin call level by the way for that

250 mil in debt he took out is about 21

000 for btc and we we almost knocked on

the door of that at like 21 400 so yikes

in other news hottest retail stocks

right now tracking retail investors who

still have not capitulated by the way

which is quite crazy

i think we really need that capitulation

to hit a bottom of the market and i

think one way that you could really see

that sort of they call it a cathartic

flush out is when the vix finally goes

back over 40 which it still haven't

hasn't yeah that's the volatility index

right we still haven't seen that but

anyway anyway so hottest retail stocks

right now amazon docusign you have the

10-year treasury still up at 3.346

it's going to kill mortgage rates i

think some a lender commented yesterday

that

well first of all on bloomberg i saw

that the mortgage rates i tweeted this

we're going up to about 5.8 but usually

nobody gets that market rate

usually you end up having to pay like

multiple points to get that market rate

so uh lender commented yesterday and

this makes sense to me that they're

qualifying people for between six and a

quarter to six point five percent for

mortgages right now and that's with like

half a point which is just absolutely

crazy yields curve is up to four basis

points which is still pretty

embarrassing because we're pretty much

next to inverted uh the five year break

even did tick down again to three

percent uh this is actually good because

i think that's the market saying

that oh well the fed's actually going to

get serious now when we're pricing in

that the fed's going to get serious so

that should bring inflation down so the

the market's actually believing that the

fed's going to actually do their job now

which is pretty remarkable dude i can't

read this thing this sucks i don't

really need to read it though i just

kind of look at the little stats here

but boy taking this thing out on the sun

man i should just throw this in the

water

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me at me kevin okay so uk purchasing

power this was crazy i'm gonna put up a

chart on this one okay uk purchasing

power that is spending power by those in

the united kingdom fell by the most in

at least 21 years now why do we say at

least 21 years well we say that when the

statistic was created 21 years ago and

this is the worst fall in purchasing

power yet the average decline in

purchasing power for the last three

months was 2.1 percent and if you

compared april to april people were able

to spend 3.4 percent less than they were

able to last april

so problem folks we are in a crap market

2022 is going to suck and it's really

going to suck because now we're in a

position where we actually need the fed

to wake up and

you know

slap us around a little bit it's like

come on fed like give it to me already

and that's what we're all kind of

waiting for and now the market's pricing

in and now that the market's pricing it

in

well hopefully we can hit peak fear and

peak bottom but

there's no way i think anybody can

actually call a bottom until we get

inflation

to meaningfully inflect down which in my

opinion means we have pain until at

least

september now some people are saying

that this is the time to diversify i had

a lot of comments about this yesterday

some folks are like oh this is time to

diversify diversity in my opinion the

time to diversify just sort of my

response is actually when the market's

going euphoric so when the market's

going euphoric that's when you want to

spread your risk because you know these

balls are going to fall that's kind of

like in november it's like all right

let's spread out a little bit right

because what goes up must come down

now when the market's down i generally

like to concentrate my position and

start preparing for when we hit a bottom

then diversifying as we're moving up but

you've got to do that research now so in

today's course member live stream which

remember you get free access to the

course member live streams when you join

any of the courses on building your

wealth link down below 50 off coupon

code as well uh we'll be doing some more

fundamental analysis we've already done

fundamental analysis on quite a few

companies and we're going to keep doing

it whether it's etsy nvidia crowdstrike

uh you know maybe today we'll we'll do

uh docusign or you know i've actually

kind of been interested in looking at

some of the sasses again because those

sassy valuations have gotten unsassed i

mean we're you know bill.com they're

down like 60 and that's not to say that

i'm interested in build.com right now i

don't know i haven't looked at their

fundies yet but sometimes i look at the

fundies and i'm like oh yeah there's a

reason i'm not in this other times i

look at them like

this actually could end up being an

opportunity and i'm a big fan of

opportunities anyway we're getting a

little shallow over here which means

it's time for me to end the video

because i gotta dock a stupid boat i'll

see you later bye