The Stock Market Correction May be Over - Buy?!

is the worst over or are we just in the

middle of the eye of the storm in this

video we're going to break down three

different analysts opinions on what's

actually happening in the economy we're

going to start with Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley says we're in the eye of

the storm we're going to go through the

actual document together and then we'll

get into the maybe more bullish pieces

but Morgan Stanley has an interesting

point of view first of all when you're

in the eye of the storm it's really

important to remember what that means

what it means to be in the eye of the

storm is is the weather's actually

really calm see unless you've actually

lived through a hurricane you might not

know and that's not your fault but the

eye of the storm is actually the most

calm part of a hurricane in fact when

I've lived through hurricanes as a child

in Florida during the eye of the storm

you had like a 30 minute period to go

outside and there was no rain no wind

you chat with your neighbors see how the

first half of the storm went and then

you go back inside for the second half

of the storm which depending on which

side of the storm you were on could be

worse or better usually that top left is

the one that spawns all the tornadoes

and is really bad so it's kind of TVD in

terms of where we are but enough of the

analogy let's actually get into the

document so conversations have talked

about hey has has the market stabilized

and is the worst over Morgan Stanley

actually and here's where they talk

about the eye of the storm Morgan

Stanley has a little bit of a negative

view on this they actually say look the

market is appropriately selling off

because as we know valuations are pretty

high all you have to do is look at the

S&P PE ratios either trailing or forward

looking and we're at a historically High

set of valuations for S&P 500 companies

it's also worth remembering that 30% of

S&P 500 revenues come from guess what

international markets now of course in

the near term that has led a lot of

people to say okay I'll just invest in

the stocks 50 you know Europe's you know

Blue Chip stocks or all ofest in Chinese

exposure which honestly has outperformed

since the beginning of the year but

other people argue that's just really a

potential fad right now to diversify

from the US but remember if the US the

world's largest economy actually goes in

the pooper dupers everything could get

impacted now that said let's see Morgan

Stanley's taken remember they're going

to be more of the Bears out of these

three analysts here so take a look at

this they say the real slowdown is yet

to show up in the hard data and they

think that there's more bad news to come

ahead mostly because the four things

that they thought could have been

potential growth drivers for the United

States are currently not that would be

tariffs not a current growth driver

maybe in the long term Fiscal uh you

know cutting government spending is not

a growth driver lack of immigration is

not a growth driver and deregulation is

not a growth driver which there at this

point in the future maybe we'll get

enough deregulation or we'll get enough

home Crown manufacturing that will be

there but that doesn't seem to be the

near-term case we're still waiting for

those tax benefits of course but Morgan

Stanley touches on those as well as some

of the analysts touch on those as well

and one of the arguments that we'll end

up finding is we might need more more

than just tax cuts at this point and

this is something that I want you to

think about going into

this when you have an economy that is

slowing usually the way you stimulate a

slowing economy is by either printing

more money or taxing less okay so we

could do that but the Trump tax cuts

right now are expected to be an

extension of the 2017 tax cuts which

means we're not actually getting tax

cuts by passing an extend of the 2017

tax cuts we're merely avoiding a tax

hike and so you'll see one of the

analysts sends up arguing that we need

more than just what we had in 2017 to

stimulate growth in this economy we

actually need bigger Cuts now whether we

get those or not remains to be seen keep

in mind Republicans are expected to pass

their tax plan through just simple

budget reconciliation which means they

only need 51 votes and they're

filibuster proof if they utilize budget

reconciliation and in English it's going

to be really hard for the Democrats to

block them as long as you know

Republicans get it done before midterms

okay fine those are all aspects to

consider here uh but what else does

Morgan Stanley tell us well they say

that right now uh fiscal is

contractionary as in the government

isn't going to spend more so we can't

see this we know that tariffs with April

2nd looming are probably a downside but

they could be an upside too right like

what if Donald Trump comes out bullish

and we're back to free trade

fantastic however then we also have what

Morgan Stanley argues an unappreciated

drag of immigration sort of a lack of

immigration into the country which of

course a lot of folks say hey well just

you know cares about the immigration

like Americans can do that job there's a

small problem with that in that it's

kind of unlikely that the fired

government bureaucrats who are now

potentially looking for work or willing

to take the jobs that illegal Americans

were doing and you know vice versa it's

unlikely that those illegal government

or those illegal workers were you know

working for government jobs right so

they they filled different places of the

economy so somebody will benefit but

people might also in the short term be

interrupted by those disruptions but

anyway markets substantially

overestimate both the likely speed of

deregulation and its ability to push

growth this is something that I've

talked about as well before that some of

the problems with the Trump hope that we

saw in November that tax cuts probably

won't really be meaningful for us as if

we get more tax cuts until 2026 because

we're already expecting the base cuts

the new Cuts probably won't be

beneficial until 26 and deregulation

also takes quite a while you can start

slashing government uh you know agencies

like the Consumer Financial Protection

Bureau but when do we actually go back

to you know the ludicrous level of 2006

I mean that could be a decade from now

who knows but anyway by the way that's

going to be a bubble at some point in

the future if they cut the Consumer

Financial Protection

there'll be a huge bubble again at some

point in the future in lending who knows

maybe that's what we're seeing in buy

now pay later right now you know the

cfpb was trying to reign in buy now pay

later and now what we're actually doing

is we're buy now pay lering for our door

Dash orders which honestly is a little

bit crazy but whatever we got more of

this to cover here

so uh are all of these cries about

recession overdone probably the

strongest evidence to date is in the

Soft Data and we will continue to lean

on the hard data over the Soft Data so

even though Morgan Stanley is actually a

little bit bearish they say they're not

that bearish that we're going to go into

a recession this actually somewhat

bullish if you know some of the more

bearish arguments of these three pieces

that we're going to review are coming

from someone who's actually kind of like

ah recession is probably overblown at

this point hey that's actually not that

bad they say in their forecast the

meaningful slowing might not show up for

another quarter but we will be following

non-farm payrolls data even more closely

than usual ah you know me labor market

slowdowns are the last thing that rolls

over in a recession but what is

interesting from this Morgan Stanley

piece is they're arguing hey we might

not actually see the worst of the data

until guess when a quarter from now the

problem with that is in a quarter from

now that's when we expect to see maximal

impact from tariffs so if they see signs

of potential sentiment leading data to

roll over well when tariffs actually hit

in April we'd be aligning both of those

potential negativities the sentiments

potentially rolling over to hard but

then actual hard data showing up and

maybe lower durables purchases we get a

durables report this week I think it's

Wednesday uh and and also future heart

data which all culminates in sort of a

June ouchy wouch which is also you know

double this up with what Deutsche Bank

says which is hey you know in October is

when we're probably going to see the

biggest impact from tariffs June just be

the start that's when you're going to

have your most economically sensitive

time so that's important to look at

because Morgan Stanley is kind of like I

don't know like we could be done but

maybe we're just in the middle of it we

still have another 3 to six months to go

worth paying attention to and we'll

align this with some of the others are

saying as well now I want to get to the

next piece quick note before I do house

hack has a non accredited race going I

haven't posted a full dedicated video

yet on the on the meet Kevin Channel but

there's a full one over on the house

hack homes YouTube channel if you want

to check that out or just go to hous

hack.com I plan on making a full

dedicated video as well but if in the

meantime you want to get a little bit of

insights feel free to check these out

ask us questions send us emails over at

IR uh house hack.com check out all the

properties that we have renovated over

here uh you can click the invest button

if you're accredited or non accredited

and you can diversify to real estate

while earning a 5% yield with downside

protection and and the upside of a stock

learn more about that obviously over at

house act.com and the disclosures

related to that now let's talk about

City so City says we're going to get

some clarity from tariffs around April

2nd which now we're being told maybe

maybe just maybe we'll be a little bit

more targeted maybe we won't get this

sort of blanket Global tariff set but

this

information could do poorly or lead to

poor results for risk I actually found

this really interesting because a lot of

people think that in tariffs are going

to lead to inflation and that that'll

lead bonds to do poorly but CI actually

makes the argument that risk assets like

stocks or crypto would do poorly and

bonds would actually do well this is

interesting to me now I look at some of

their arguments uh to get a little bit

of an idea of you know where's where's

their mindset coming from what what are

they seeing and first thing I notice is

they say that if the end goal is 15 to

10% on tariffs even though we have a

whole variety of scenarios we're

probably going to end up somewhere at

least

15% and this is what it forms really the

basis for some of their opinion is okay

we're going to go into this with about a

15% tariff on a lot of different

products as a result they say that risks

are two-sided and I want to read this

one because I think this is an

interesting line of course the market

has already priced in a tariff shock to

some extent this is what you hear a lot

of bulls saying right now oh it's

already priced in let's go to the Moon

I'm all for everybody going back to the

Moon CU I don't want to see pain and

suffering and I think there are

opportunities no matter how you invest

it's actually a lot of what we talk

about over in the meet Kevin membership

where you can now get access to every

single course Alpha report private Liv

stream trade alert everything all eight

courses and everything with one small

daily subscription essentially you can

see the prices over at meetkevin.com

it's less than a buck 60 a day go check

it out you get access to everything

immediately if you don't like it cancel

after 30 days no harm no foul but take a

look at this if people are saying that

we've already priced in a shock to some

extent then hey do does it matter like

let's just buy the dip right they say

though the experience so far has

suggested that tariffs are not

necessarily overly lasting and may

change if us corporates are getting

impact too significantly in other words

if corporations complain then Donald

Trump is likely to sort of unwind the

tariffs kind of like what they did with

the auto tariffs if you remember back to

when we got our blanket 25% tariff on

Canada and Mexico with the exception of

energy they really quickly Exempted cars

like almost immediately they Exempted

cars for a month and then they're like

okay we we'll actually also exclude

anything usmca compliant and so the

Trump Administration does react to

complaints from the industry which is a

bullish thing right because it it means

there's some flexibility now the market

however in their opinion might still

underappreciate the ultimate negative

tariff outcome right they say the Tariff

announcements could turn to be more

benign than expected maybe because

tariff gets phased in over a longer

period of time however there is that

risk about the markets having

underpriced and assuming that Trump is

going to be too accommodative or

potentially benign with his results and

therefore City's conclusion here is we

would rather buyback the market on a

benign outcome than go very long into

the Tariff decisions okay let me clean

that up a little bit because it's a

little bit of a messy paragraph

basically they're saying look we're

going to sit on the sidelines until we

figure out what the tariffs are mostly

because even though markets have priced

in some level of tariffs we don't know

what the true impact of them is going to

be

when it comes to who will underperform

they say the case for being too cautious

into tariffs is relatively easy to

justify so in other words hey totally is

reasonable to be cautious going into

this the question of who will

underperform though is hard to answer in

2018 it was China and international

markets which is the opposite of what's

happening so far right now and the US

had outperformed literally the opposite

is happening right now China and

international are doing better than the

United States so they reiterate that

over here and this is why they say we're

tactically downgrading the United States

okay interesting so they're not exactly

the most how would you put it bullish

but they're also not super bearish

they're like hey look you know if we can

get past this we're ready to dive in

we're ready to get back into the market

okay good so far I'm not actually seeing

huge Wall Street Panic you know I think

when you start seeing Wall Street

panicking that's probably when you're

closer to the bottom honestly like but

all the analysts are mega mega bearish

that's usually you're signed to buy

right the contrarian play but anyway

take a look at this city ends up saying

that the best asset could end up being

cash they say cash maintains its

relative appeal to late last year and

that our cash allocation is usually the

residual of the other positions but now

they're actually interested in being

bullish on cash and the ability that

cash provides them it's actually one of

the reasons why we're offering that 5%

heal at house Haack because at least on

the channel a sort of broad a broad

suggestion uh free financial advice if

you will like not personalized for you I

think increasing your cash allocation

like City says is smart but not only do

I like the idea of increasing your cash

allocation I like the idea of increasing

allocations to things like cash yielding

private equity and Equity that's outside

of some of the bubbly sectors like I

kind of think real estate

is a deal right now and will continue to

be a really good deal that's why we're

hoarding cash at house act because we're

going to go shopping in Q3 Q4 when most

people are panicking that their listings

haven't sold and inventory is flooded

and we're going to be able to shoot fish

in a barrel you get to be a part of that

if you invest in house act house act.com

uh and you get the 5% yield on top of

that so it's kind of diversifying away

from the stock market you get a yield

and you're going into sort of uh what

what a lot of people see as an

undesirable sector right now which is

usually what I want to be buying when

nobody else wants to right so that's

what we're going to be doing Q3 Q4 so

Cash Cash yielding assets this makes

sense but what does Goldman Sachs tell

us so unfortunately I'm a Goldman Sachs

piece my highlights disappeared but I'll

go through the highlights anyway because

I've got a lot of memorized because I

didn't read it too long ago so first of

all Tony who is the sort

of Chief hedge fund coverage strategist

or whatever you want to call them over

at Goldman sa has a few opinions first

he says the economy slowed down but

growth has not collapsed like you cannot

call right now A recession a lot of

people disagree with that a lot of

people say right now I feel like I'm in

a recession that's bull crap and I think

there are a lot of reasonable arguments

to be made that we're actually

experiencing a rolling recession like

Kathy Woods says right now

however Goldman Sachs you know Tony here

suggests that uh you know growth so far

far like the hard data isn't showing us

falling off a cliff which is very

similar to what jome Powell told us at

the fomc meeting this week I haven't

seen the data yet to say we're

definitely falling off a cliff the worst

thing that we actually face right now

are multiples you know multiples on the

S&P 500 are are sitting you know in

excess of 24 25 26 somewhere in that

range uh and and if you look at the cape

Schiller ratio either of those

statistics we're at like all-time highs

on valuations now yes markets have come

down but only about 5% or 10% off these

crazy all-time highs you know for the

broader indices some stocks more more

dramatically uh and the more dramatic

moves are really a sign of what can

happen when PE compress again to some

extent as an example Tesla was a little

overbought I think everybody can agree

with that going to 480 a little

overbought uh and that's not to say

anything bad about Tesla it's just to

say he got got a little euphoric there

after the Trump win and basically Elon

you know buying his way into the White

House there's a lot of enthusiasm around

what that could mean for the future of

self-driving and Manufacturing or

otherwise but eventually pees you know

multiples valuation multiples tend to

compress and so Tony argues that the

entire Market actually has a little bit

of an overweight uh uh position and he

says that while Traders may have removed

their allocations a lot of longer term

holders what he calls structural holders

like households who are really exposed

to stocks right now highest exposure in

history to stocks right now households

who are overweight to

equities and aren't trading are actually

overallocated to stocks and they haven't

trimmed High valuations yet they've kind

of just taken the bleed so yeah people's

portfolios have gotten hid and that

might be you where you're like damn yeah

man I mean I I had stocks at you know

125 pounds here you know 480 Tesla or

whatever and I was looking at my

portfolio like DN not pretty good you

now it's like it's still good but it not

as good as it

was this this is fine but Tony makes the

argument that you really get this true

panic when the structural sellers start

selling and so far what we have are

structural people still buying

households and people broadly by

by which is

fine anyway irrespective of the market

bias when you take a half a step back

it's stunning how much is going on right

now and even if implied volatility has

settled down the market continues to

metabolize a huge range of significant

variables the result is a trading

environment that is profoundly different

from the past few years to say nothing

of entire blocks of time what follows

from the point the post GFC period was

dominated by unbounded fed policy fiscal

spending and UND unrivaled US tech

preeminence all right basically saying

look we're going into this en

environment where you don't have that

fiscal spending anymore Tech dominance

maybe come into a question a little bit

and the FED isn't supporting you this

sounds a whole lot like what Morgan

Stanley said over here in their four

kind of issues if you will now something

that I thought was really interesting

about Tony was Tony over here in

paragraph number six says holy smokes

the me Kevin membership is a great deal

check it out over at meetkevin.com

before me Kevin raises the price on the

members ship and if you get in now you

lock in that low price forever so in

other words if you want to lock in that

low subscription now before we raise the

price of that subscription you're

guaranteed the lowest price of that

subscription and you keep it we're not

going to raise that existing

subscription price on you only new

subscribers would have to pay more so

check that out over M kevin.com now what

Tony actually says is whatever your

Market view I'd remain flexible on where

this all leads here I'll invoke the

wisdom of Jesse Livermore when you're

doing nothing those speculators who feel

they must trade day in day out or laying

the foundation for your next venture

where I'm going with that is the year is

not yet 25% complete and the degree of

difficulty is very high so the

preservation of capital is as important

as anything else right now this line

right here coming from Goldman Sachs you

know hedge fund coverage like head of

hedge fund coverage is pretty powerful

is they're basically like you have a

hedge fund telling you we're like

focusing on preservation of capital

right now over trading now that's in

part what we've been

doing at least you know what I've been

doing and talking about uh in the course

member live streams where I I'm a little

bit more choosy with my trades last week

we had an S&P 5 or sorry it was a NASDAQ

100 play that went up like

125% in the 40 minutes after my alert on

it which is amazing and I took great

profits on it hopefully you were able to

take great profits on as well you get

those alerts on the me Kevin membership

mind you but uh there's certainly fewer

trades going on right now because you

have to be more careful in this

environment and I think that's what

Goldman Sachs is saying as well it's

like ah we you know we want to hold that

cash that optionality which makes it a

hard time for a lot of the AI companies

or the tech companies to really raise

money again this is where I think

there's a really good opportunity to get

a steal of a deal on companies that are

exposed to real estate like house but

they again I'm I'm a little bit biased

and I think we're actually selling the

shares for a wedge deal for buyers you

could learn all about that and what our

Wall Street valuation is when we as we

were ready to IPO you know we got

evaluation from Wall Street you could

learn all about that over at house

act.com or watch the video over at house

homes on it uh and if you want you can

always join me in a live stream as well

and ask questions about it but anyway

Tony makes this argument that you know

it's it's hard to know right

now where the Trump Administration is

going to go with tariffs and this is a

pretty big line ready for this look at

this right here the US consumer shows

that survey sentiment surveys look like

dirt and the pressures on low-end

consumers are

accumulating however again the high-end

consumer is holding things stable so

what's going on is it weather is it not

is is GDP going to go down to 1.9% or is

it going to go negative who knows but

there's a lot to talk about here and I

think when you put all of this together

what you kind of have is Morgan Stanley

City and Tony over at Goldman Sachs

they're all kind of neutral they're kind

of in the middle like H we got cash we

don't know what to do with it shout out

by the way to whoever has this plushy

Max gave it to me and uh we call it the

good luck plushy I don't even know what

it's from I mean I'm sure it's from some

kind of game but anyway thanks Max good

luck but uh yeah what's interesting is

all three of them are kind of

like it's not going to be that bad I

think but we like cash and

bonds yeah I agree like I want to be

bullish but I'm kind of like cash and

bonds that's why we're doing bonds at

house right and I put $5 million of my

own money into house I'm like oh that's

a good deal right now I put some into

that and some into treasury bonds and

some into cash right that's how I like

my portfolio allocated right now I can't

wait to go buy the D again I just don't

think that right now is that opportunity

that doesn't mean I'm bearish I'm just

bullish on other things anyway so uh

then Tony makes this argument that

what's interesting about the episode

relative to this one when you compare to

2018 is all of the differences in 2018 I

hate the phrase different you know this

time is different in 2018 the market

came to believe that the FED policy put

was much further out than thought

basically Powell rolled earlier than

thought the problem now is because of

the uncertainties we don't actually know

when we're going to get the power put

the Power put could come a lot later

than we expect now it probably will

arrive at some point but it could be too

late things could have already gone

quite poopy by then so I I don't know uh

it's going to be really interesting but

uh all I know is we're raising cash and

we're going to buy houses and have cash

for optionality uh we've already raised

over seven figures by the way for house

Haack congratulations to all the house

Haack investors there are a lot of

firsttime investors who are investing

more money because they want the 5%

yield uh and they want the downside

protection they want the upside as well

uh again you can learn all about that at

house hack.com and I'll put a link uh

down below to uh to a private live

stream that we're going to be doing uh

probably right before I post this video

so you can watch it back on 2x if you

want it's sort of like a free sample if

you will of kind of what like a course

member live would be like plus Q&A and

Market commentary so uh this is sort of

the kind of live stream that we like to

do daily in the course member live

streams as part of the meet Kevin

membership so I'll put a free sample as

a pin comment down below and in the top

of description thanks so much for being

here folks we'll see you in the next one

goodbye and good luck out there do not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there Financial anst

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take