The PPI [Inflation] & Retail Sales SHOCKER *JUST OUT*

we're 30 seconds away from PPI and

retail sales I want you to focus on two

very important numbers number one PPI

final demand month over month it's

expected to be 0.3 number two retail

sales month over month negative point

four we want these to come in ideally

PPI comes in low that'd be fantastic

that would reiterate potentially rate

Cuts this year although that seems like

a dream right now and retail sales

stable we don't want them to be too low

because that would be recessionary here

we go retail sales match point four on

retail says yes oh my gosh yes dude oh

my gosh this is bullish bullish bullish

bullish holy crap uh PPI final demand

month over month it was expected to come

in up 0.3 it came in at negative point

one negative point one let's go that is

freaking awesome let's go PPI uh X food

energy trade comes in at 0.2 instead of

0.3 fantastic beat leading indicator PPI

leads CPI anyway ppix food energy comes

in instead of at 0.4 comes in at zero

big Miss so final demand headline coming

in at a big Miss uh food and energy big

Miss at zero basically flat minus food

energy and trade comes in soft at point

two instead of 0.3 this is fantastic PPI

final demand comes in year over year

whoa expected to be 5.4 comes in at 4.6

big Miss to the downside bye bye

inflation holy moly ppix food and energy

year over year 4.4 expectation was 5 5.4

big Miss ppix food energy trade year

over year 4.4 expectation was 4.8 big

Miss and lower than the prior release of

4-5 retail sales uh prior retail sales

were actually revised up from three

percent month over month to 3.2 this

month comes in at expectations uh minus

0.4 uh X Auto comes in at expectation

minus 0.1 x Auto gas comes in slightly

higher than expectation at flat versus

minus 0.2 and then retail sales control

group came in a little hotter this is

incredible absolutely incredible I mean

this this is very exciting uh if if you

want to jump on over and get some stocks

now you just go to metcaven.com Weeble

get yourself 12 free stocks start

trading on Weeble let's go and look at

the actual PPI report let's also look at

the sticks over here you've got the

NASDAQ going from about negative 1.5

percent on the day to actually going up

uh about uh well it's trying to Trend up

right now we're sitting at about 9

negative 0.9 but this is a fantastic PPI

report producer price inflation look

index you all know I love PP uh you know

I like pricing power this right here

shows we've got pricing power without

inflation this is a fantastic report

today is the Ides of March today is the

day that chat GPT told us the world was

going to basically end but it's not

instead we got ourselves a giant Halo

Needler here which you could get to at

metcaven.com Needler all right well

let's go actually into the PPI report

and see what some of the details are

here but this is fantastic really really

good I mean this this is literally what

I what I wanted literally 30 seconds

before the release I said ideally retail

sales come in at expectations and

inflation comes in soft because that

means the recession isn't as bad and

inflation is better right dude we got

Merry Christmas with this report this is

fantastic I don't know I don't know

exactly how the Market's gonna end up

taking it today because obviously

there's there are a lot of concerns in

the market market market now pricing in

over a hundred basis points of cuts but

let's look at actually some of the

details here wow this is insane decrease

point one percent again the expectation

was an increase of 0.4 percent holy moly

uh this shows you January was an anomaly

look at that the index for uh a minus

food energy trade here 0.2 percent after

January it Rose point five percent right

January was hell uh this is fantastic

here are the one month changes with a

seasonally adjusted chart right here and

uh we we can kind of see that they're

really trending under the line right

here if we look at uh actually all three

of these here final demand final demand

Services final demand Goods all of them

under zero that's great you see this

anomaly right here in January uh and it

rightfully so an anomaly we really want

to keep this as low as possible ideally

we want to be below this red line that I

just threw across here which is about

0.3.4 we're now nicely below that with

the exception of that January crisis

this shows you the 12-month Trend it's

straight down fantastic final demand

blah blah blah okay I want to get some

actual numbers here uh okay here we go

some actual numbers here uh index for

final demand inch down uh leading

declines let's see prices for

transportation and warehousing lead

declines falling 1.1 percent

final demand Services less

Transportation warehousing Advanced

point three percent that's not fantastic

uh because Services still still a little

bit stickier but that's only 3.6 percent

we can stick with that we're okay that's

okay I don't mind that because the fed's

just going to talk that away thanks to

fate flexible average inflation

targeting margins for machinery and

vehicle wholesaling fell three point

nine percent you know the car steel car

dealership guy actually had a really

good piece on this yesterday he was

basically trying to explain how

basically the people getting screwed uh

in car dealerships right now are the car

dealers in other words auction prices

for like buying new cars for the

companies are going up but like average

selling prices are stable or falling it

basically means we've said it before on

the channel we've said it many times the

companies are taking it in the margin oh

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for chemicals and and products

wholesaling automobiles automobile parts

guest room rental Airline passenger

Services declined oh that's actually

good guest room rentals Airline

passenger Services decline but

Outpatient Care Rosa little bit 0.5

percent that's that's a lingering

expectation that's okay the index for

food and all alcohol retailing

Securities brokerage dealing investment

advice and Loan services increase this

is because people like Kevin keep

raising the prices for their uh for

their courses on building uh your wealth

actually I don't show up in PPI I don't

at least I don't think I do I don't

think we get surveyed if we get surveyed

I'm sorry but that's just the promise we

make the price goes up over time we add

more value more people join the price

goes up over time that way there's

there's always a reason to join sooner

rather than later prices for process

good and we give you a price match

guarantee too in case that isn't true uh

prices for processed goods for uh

intermediate demand move down point four

percent of whatever that means prices

for processed foods declined 1.9 yeah

you shouldn't be eating processed food

anyway the index for industrial

electrical plug don't even get me

started on like dietary said okay we're

not going down this uh the index for

industrial electrical power primary

organic okay whatever so some chemicals

and stuff move blower yeah because well

that's ironic because you spilled them

all over in uh East Palestine

thermoplastics and resins Rose 1.8

percent unpro okay I don't know what

half this crap is uh but I do know that

uh I want to look at services so

Services matters so the February Advance

can be traced to a point six percent

rise in prices for services less trade

transportation and warehousing okay

that's not good so in other words all

services minus trade Transportation

warehouses up at an annualized rate of

7.2 percent that's not great

we'd like to see uh we'd like to see

that slow down a little bit uh so we're

still seeing some stickiness in Services

uh again we want that to go away overall

though we're getting a very good report

here so I'm very excited about that

along with that retail sales report uh

which is uh which came in pretty decent

now I want to go to that retail sales

report as well but I'm also going to see

if we can get some charts here on uh to

get a little bit more data so let's go

let's try retail let's see here and

let's also take a quick look at what the

suits are saying on this but again both

of these reads absolutely fantastic

reads so I'm pretty happy about these uh

all right March 15th here's the March

15th release from the Census Bureau on

retail sales uh PP let me just also tell

you quickly what uh the suits are saying

here U.S underlying measures of

inflation at an industry level coming in

less than expected will further fuel the

treasury's rally yields down is what

that means which in turn will give the

FED scope to slow down the pace of hikes

while it does soften Financial

conditions whereas the RuneScape party

hat right it does look like stock

futures actually continuing negative but

whoa what a plummet on the treasure

yields holy smokes look at that plummet

on the treasury yields my God down to

3.47

dude that's really good the treasure

eels are plummeting uh a good thing if

you own a bunch of treasuries like house

act does my real estate startup oh wow

look at that the two-year dropping 31

bips now solidly under four percent 3.9

on the two year look at that look at

that crash on the right side

all right uh so PBI all right something

showing a little sticky but overall good

news okay we'll keep it on that what

about retail sales what's happening here

so we know retail sales uh you know came

in somewhat stable I don't want to

reread some of the numbers here I want

to get to some of the details give me

give me the Deets where are the Deets

here we go these are the Deets that I

want uh all right so let's look at some

of the Deeds here

so adjusted we'll go with the change I'm

gonna go with the two month total right

here we're going to look at this change

right here this rate so what do we have

furniture stores total change and

actually can I just get a percentage

Yeah okay this is gonna be a lot easier

uh Feb 23 Advance month over month oh

this is much easier okay so what do we

have here Jan 23 this is the the two

month average here December through Feb

here's the tumor okay all right fine so

where where's the the heat that's what I

want to see so the softness total retail

softness 0.4 great motor vehicle parts

down 1.8 Automotive down to uh furniture

down 2.5 that makes a lot of sense gas

stations down clothing's actually down

here at point eight we get mixed reads

on clothing sometimes it's up like CPI

it seems like it was up and uh here in

the producer it's actually coming down

so bad for leading indicators for

clothing get out of the clothing

retailers I think that's that's one of

the the more uh lower income discretion

areas that's going to end up getting

whacked in the Spy health care and

personal care stores you know yesterday

we did a fundamental analysis on Ulta

Ulta beauty wow that's all I got to say

I mean watch re-watch the course member

live stream yesterday on Ulta beauty but

look at this PPI telling you price is

going up and Healthcare and personal

care stores Ulta actually gave us a

reason for that uh but anyway food and

beverage store is up 0.5 percent grocery

store so still getting that food

inflation I'm actually surprised by this

we got this in CPI as well that

appliances were starting to take up

again

Food Services and drinking places oh

this is fantastic news down 2.2 percent

that's great news for me uh department

stores love those Food Services places

uh department stores minus uh four

percent great anything else over here

not really okay okay all right so this

gives us a little bit of an idea

percentage-wise where's the heat really

the heat is in health and personal care

that could potentially be lingery right

like lingering and price increases

um you know okay A little bit of a

spoiler alert uh what you're seeing is

you're seeing Beauty and cosmetics

companies come out with more product

verticals to start appealing to lower

income demographics because they realize

we're walking into a recession that

however is starting to lead to some of

the the cheaper stuff go up in price but

the more expensive stuff come down in

price they're trying to protect their

margins basically by introducing like

mid-tier style products and it's really

interesting because you are still seeing

health and personal care pump like this

stuff is done very very well over the

last year to two years it'll be very

interesting to see what goes on forward

uh and and you know we talk some more

about the valuations of Health and

Beauty and that in the live but uh but

yeah this okay so this gives us retail

sales this gives us uh what's going on

with producer prices I think this is

fantastic news here's another update

from Wall Street today's data releases

were not totally unambiguous what uh but

in other words a little confusing is

what they're saying that's a confusing

way of saying it was confusing anyway on

balance it cleared room for the FED to

take a step back the PPI data Smooths

some inflationary concerns with figures

coming in below expectations at across

every major aggregate correct the FED

does not Target PPI this is true they

target the demand side CPI pce but this

is good to know that pipeline inflation

is coming down

uh Empire manufacturing surveys even

though they're erratic they're trending

down and really this just reiterates to

the FED that inflation is is potentially

solved here and now we gotta minimize

the potential for uh a uh uh you know a

hard recession here uh okay so Break

Even inflation yields on the snooze

trending down looking uh like they're

hitting about 2.33 now World interest

rate probabilities uh yep now increasing

again the odds of a rate cut towards the

end of the year so uh now we're now

we're pretty clearly expecting rate cut

by the end of the year uh it's

remarkable to me that markets are

potentially starting to price in rate

Cuts as soon as June it really kills

this um this uh dare I say um higher for

longer thesis yeah here's Steve who

gives us some numbers Empire

manufacturing coming in at negative 24.6

versus the expectation of negative 7.9

and the previous of 5.8 thank you for

that uh let's see here then we've got uh

somebody trying to make a Linus Tech tip

jokes uh in the chat uh I saw that video

too uh and then uh frankly I'd be fine

with three percent CPI says the crypto

guy well of course because you know the

fed's just gonna explain it away with uh

with fate so anyway as usual check out

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description uh Futures right now

actually going more negative on this

news even though in my opinion this is

fantastic news this is just reiterating

that inflation it's not the issue and we

should be focusing on pricing power

stocks but hey the market is so

irrational it the more opportunities

they give me to add the more I'll take

them I mean it's fine with me so I think

this is fantastic this is just yet again

as not like I you know I will flip-flop

on you I would be I would be I would be

the most excited person to flip-flop on

you because then I could make a

wonderful video that I get a lot of

views that'll say I'm flip-flopping

again

but I'm not like this just reiterates uh

the volatile Nike Swoosh uh this is uh

this is actually very good news uh I

think that maybe if the market trends

downwards today it would solely be

because because retail sales came in

negative it just reiterates the idea of

God now we're not worried about

inflation anymore now we're actually

worried about recession uh that's really

the only reason but again I think you

can minimize the worries of recession by

being exposed to pricing power style

stocks you know things with big PP uh

you know things with people with money

you're still going to be spending money

on while we get through this disaster

the good news is the Quaker inflation

Falls the less pain we end up getting

from inflation uh uh right and the

quicker we could flip-flop uh and uh and

bail markets out with price cuts