WARNING: Real Estate & Stock Market GREAT RESET Begins.

gold down stocks down Tesla down a lot

real estate prices up according to the

20 City average by core logic what is

going on Drome Powell's talking tomorrow

let's break all of this down because

there's a lot to understand the first

thing we should do is understand real

estate now you know me I'm a big person

about you know when it comes to real

estate in terms of my opinions on it and

how much I'm involved in it you already

know I've got a real estate startup we

have a fundraising deadline for that

tomorrow but we'll do a q Q&A like after

Jerome Powell tomorrow we'll just stay

in the same live stream we'll do a

really big Q&A I'll answer any single

question anybody has about that but

let's first understand the real estate

market right now single family homes are

actually becoming substantially more

expensive in the spring which is great

for the stuff we bought as a real estate

company at the end of last year but it's

not so great for buying more why what is

happening this is my opinion as we're

starting to see in certain cities

inventory Rising what we're seeing is

buer Euphoria stepping into the real

estate market for single family

dwellings this is very different in

multi and I'll explain that the single

family Euphoria for singles it's

skyrocketing because people have finally

come to terms with the idea that we're

not presently experiencing a 2008 style

crash in housing in America now that

doesn't mean we won't and I'll give you

some speculation on what may happen

going forward in just a moment but what

it's telling you is that a lot of people

are trying to get their hands on real

estate and this is leading a lot of

folks to overpay for accessible real

estate no not wheelchair accessible I

mean accessible as in close to the price

that they are able to buy real estate

for so maybe 600,000 to a million bucks

somewhere in there this sort of range

that a lot of people are buying real

estate in and so as inventory is still

relatively low and even though rates are

high there's enough Euphoria to

diversify away from stocks which are

being a little volatile right now to

move into real estate and buy singles

themselves as either rentals or to live

in this actually has been making housing

more unaffordable as prices are still

ticking up from those lows of last year

and rates are also ticking up so yes

housing is becoming substantially more

unaffordable now people are speculating

that as interest rates come

down housing prices will go up I

actually don't think that will happen in

the near term I actually think that as

interest rates come down we'll see more

housing inventory and you'll sort of

have a balanced Market but what's

starting to happen may be even worse in

areas like parts of Texas parts of

Nashville parts of other areas in the

country that had sort of a covid boom

that is we might be exper experiencing

what I call the covid reversal Trend

which is where you have this massive

surge of individuals moving to an area

Texas Nashville whatever uh Boise Idaho

and then you have this this sudden

overbuilding of new construction in that

area then the flow of people slows down

and as the flow of people slows down and

you still have that construction with a

two-year lag time coming online rents

fall and all of a sudden you have a lot

softer Market with a whole lot more

inventory and it's a whole lot more

desirable to just go rent than it is to

buy that creates potential Corrections

in those markets that are suffering

covid reversals and in the underbuilt

markets like the blue states that you

know a lot of people don't like

investing in a lot of those markets are

seeing way more stability because they

underbuilt what a surprise blue States

underbuilding and actually leading home

prices to rise not fall not a surprise

so this is a little bit on real estate

and what's happening in real estate but

it's happening at the same time as we're

seeing volatility in the stock market

and now the odds are that we're not

going to get as many interest rate Cuts

this year if any at all in fact the odds

are greater that we were going to have

zero interest rate Cuts uh than the odds

of us having three interest rate cuts

which markets believed we were going to

have three just as of a few months ago

and at the beginning of the year markets

thought we were going to have six or

seven rate Cuts that's basically over

now so why is some of this over now well

numbers continue to come in hat hat hot

when it comes to inflationary numbers

and not so hot not so hot not so hot for

other numbers which is giving fears or

rise to fears again about stagflation

look we're nowhere near the 9% inflation

and the you know fractional GDP we had

in 22 when we were comparing to a hot

year of 2021 so of course our GDP was

lower in 22 we had a technical recession

2 qu in a row of negative GDP that was

not a surprise we predicted that in

January of 22 it was that was almost

obvious and of course inflation ran up

to 9% yes that felt stagflationary but

again comparing to 2021 when we had low

prices and really high GDP that was

logical now the fears that are

regurgitating are oh the decline of

inflation is starting to reverse we're

getting more inflation with GDP

potentially coming in lower based on

those q1 preliminary estimates now we

can clean that up by saying ah well it

was less inventory build up we don't

need more inventory build up because we

could just call our suppliers and

they've got plenty of Supply available

uh and less exports to foreign countries

and quite frankly this is where the data

picture gets mixed because you go well

real GDP estimates for Q2 were like 3.9%

so what is it is the economy hun or it's

not well the only thing we seem to know

with certainty is that the last three

INF inflationary reports were either On

Target or warmer than expected and just

this morning we got a very important

report called the employment cost index

which came in hotter than expected at

1.2 versus the 1.0 expected for the

quarter 1.2 works out to 4.8% in wage

gains a lot of that per Nick T over at

the Wall Street Journal the leaker over

at the Federal Reserve we like to say

I'll give you a big hint of what he's

saying in just a moment but he thinks

that's heavily driven by unions now

something to know about Nick T is first

of all he sent this really important

message and his important message was

Kevin tendies were so nice yesterday on

that call option that he played with

course members you got to check out the

course member live streams the course

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a beautiful stocks and sight course

expiring today coupon code expires

tonight that's April 30th so make sure

if you have questions you email us at

staff at me kevin.com otherwise check

out over at meetkevin.com uh and if you

have questions after you could always

email us as well I do send trade alerts

to send all my trade ideas and I give my

rationale for the ideas doesn't mean

they're always going to be a win but uh

boy this Friday to Monday trade we

freaking killed it let's go 500k we can

go buy a house now woo seven children uh

anyway so uh okay so so Nick T actually

warned that JP Pal's potentially going

to lean a little bit more on the hawkish

side and take this approach of do

nothing signal that no greater

confidence has been achieved and that

it's going to take significantly more

time to actually gain the confidence

than they had previously anticipated and

that again is because of potentially

those hotter ECI numbers and I hate to

say it but Q2 ECI numbers employment

cost index numbers are probably going to

be even hotter than q1 that's because

California is probably going to

contribute 2% to ECI itself so that

means you potentially go from two 1.2 to

1.4 not great because if you annualize

that out you just multiply it by four

now you got

5.6% annual wage gains sounds good but

if you have 5.6% annual wage gains then

you get States like California that are

so freaking stupid they go oh well

prices have gone up again for goods and

services and costs companies are raising

costs again let's raise the minimum wage

again and again and again and then you

have this never ending cycle of things

getting more unaffordable people trying

to make more money and catch up to the

30% inflation we've had but then things

companies raise prices even more and get

even more un affordable and the cycle

keeps going and you never end up solving

inflation just like you had in the 1970s

which is a big cluster F it's a disaster

it's a big problem so hot ECI sucks it's

bad so I really went in today into today

before this ECI print thinking we were

going to get a neutral

jpow now I'm kind of moving the needle a

little bit to that hawkish side I think

we're probably 6040 Hawk Dove tomorrow

because of that hot ECI print tomorrow

so last week I'm like ah probably

neutral you know some of the data is

coming in soft consumer confidence went

to 97 that is a uh low that is the

lowest level that we've seen since July

of 2022 that's when inflation was 9%

that's how low consumer confidences now

and they revised down the last consumer

confidence number Chicago pmis missed

Dallas activity missed the yield curve

is getting more inverted which is more

of a signal of recession and ironically

despite this hot ECI report The

Five-Year Break Even which gives you

sort of a predictor of what inflation is

going to be over the next five years

actually take down tiny little bit to

2.42% because what's happening is at the

same time as we're getting hotter

inflation reads we're also getting

recessionary reads and so the market is

starting to maybe start pricing in again

oh no what if there's a recession

slightly right now most people are not

thinking there's a recession coming but

those are often the folks who realized

last minute that oh my gosh there is a

recession coming there's a reason let's

just say and this is not to advertise

this is just to tell you I put my money

where my mouth is I know there are a lot

of people that uh that don't listen to

the full videos and that's unfortunate

to them because I feel like I'm very

transparent with everything that I'm

doing uh and so there's a reason why in

an ETF that I manage you you know we're

we're like 19 to 20% cashola right now

uh you know we were as high as 40% we

did a little dip buying and and uh you

know we we expect to do some more but

that's 20% cash myself I'm pretty high

in cash you know I've I've deployed a

little bit uh in a dip over the last few

uh a few days here and have done some

trading over the last weekish but uh I

still have a lot more cash than I've

previously had and that's because I

think if we get a dirty jpow tomorrow

it's probably a decent hedge to go into

tomorrow with some cash depending on

what he says will determine are we going

to have a big sell off tomorrow or uh

you know and and how bad is what he says

or is he going to go hey you know what

we're going to reduce our uh Bond

selling which is stimulative to uh to

the bond market we'll provide some more

liquidity that's a complicated topic but

it's basically way saying if get the

treasury market that's screwed up the

government can't Finance more debt and

they obviously love debt they love their

debt they're going to keep financing

more debt and then you have problems uh

but you know what it's really going to

come down to is this idea of could he

signal that we're going to get another

hike me thinks not but if he does this

Market's going to tank it's it's really

going to tank very fast I don't think

he's going to Signal another hike but he

would say hey the doors not closed to it

he'll say that but signaling a hike is

different from saying you know the doors

open are closed to it uh I'd like to

hear him reiterate that we think we're

at Peak for the cycle but it may take

longer to raise rates that would be you

know and depending on some of his other

word wording I think we get 55 Dove 45

uh sorry 55 Hawk 45 Dove maybe 6040

something like that leaning towards the

hawkish side could create a slight

sell-off obviously we've got earnings

this week as well from Amazon and other

companies so we've got a lot to pay

attention to earnings last week were

great but what's happening with the

consumer really going forward can Amazon

tell us are we starting to see a turn in

the consumer because once the consumer

rolls over it'll happen fast in terms of

how quick we'll be in a recession now

there'll be some sick opportunities to

buy stuff in the real estate sector

because I think those single family

homes might have a little bit of a

Poopsy dupsy correction maybe depends

might be localized and I think the place

to buy the dip right now is in multi

family now if you want to know exactly

what kind of trade alerts I'm sending

make sure you're part of the stocks and

sight course is a coupon expiring today

we got to talk Tesla in just a moment

though uh but the second thing is

tomorrow after the FED meeting I'll

actually be in the studio uh I want you

to uh stick around if you're interested

in my house hack ask me anything Q&A you

can literally ask anything on the

internet live uh so that'll be right

after J pal finishes talking we'll just

go right into the house HCK Q&A so hope

you're there look forward to seeing you

there now let's talk Tesla look this

weekend my butt was puckering I'm like

like oh my God I just went I like I

bought Tesla uh calls Friday morning and

and I'm like all right and I wrote this

strategy out I said and I wrote this my

you know as the alert this was part of

the alert I'm like look I'm going to buy

about 10% of what I'm willing to buy

right now and then I'm going to DCA all

the way up to uh from a 20K position to

a $200,000 position so throughout the

day I saw that option go from like a

buck 90 to a buck 70 to a buck 60 to a

buck 40 to a buck 20 and I'm like this

is really freaking annoying anyway I

dollar cost averaged all the way down I

got my cost bases down to

$150 which is great why is it great

because this weekend two things happen

number one the buttpucker I heard Elon

say we're going to be spending $10

billion in autonomy spending AI spending

basically this year okay that's freaking

nuts that's nuts I saw that I'm like Oh

my my God that's a lot of freaking

spending

now I going to tell you what I think was

going to happen but first if if you're

in Austin Dallas or Houston today I'll

be there make sure to go house hack.com

2024

RSVP okay I'll be there talking about

house hack Austin Dallas Houston all

today anyway so so I'm like this is

terrible because there's no way we're

going to be free cash flow on this and

I'm reading the earnings call again I'm

going bro y'all said you think you're

going to be meaning y cash flow positive

how no way with 10 billion of extra AI

spent and training and compute no way so

I saw that I got nervous I'm like I'm

screwed my 100,000 in options will die

no no see I was looking for the reason I

was making this investment was because I

thought we'd have a quiet weekend and I

thought we would get a bounce from

Friday's sell-off Monday Tuesday before

the FED meeting what we got was bad news

and good news FSD approval in China that

$1.50 option went to like $9 it actually

went even higher intraday was incredible

there was a lot of money to be made

there that was great uh but now what I

think is happening to Tesla St today is

people are going wait a minute you're

laying off the whole supercharger team

or the new products uh part of the new

products team what's going on I can tell

you exactly what's going on they don't

have enough money remember like even

though we had a good Q2 earnings report

nothing has changed we still have the

same high interest rates for cars we're

still going to miss on deliveries yes

Tesla can do it with better margins that

was a godsend that was the Lifesaver if

those margins missed we would have had a

$100 stock they didn't miss knock on

wood congratulations what a blessing but

are rates lower no is it more affordable

by a car no are we still going to see

price Cuts probably yes uh yes did we

get a 1,000 price increase in the

performance model this weekend yes we

did uh are we probably still going to

see more layoffs and more cutting at

Tesla yes is the vehicle growth rate

this year probably going to be negative

yes now can they do all of that

potentially with better margins and

could margins in Q2 actually improve

because of all these layoffs potentially

but see how it's a mixed bag right it's

not all bull now and I mean like bullish

when I say that uh and so I I just I

like to be very very transparent with

all my thoughts I've exposed myself to

Tesla nowhere near as much as I used to

uh and I'm just upsid hedging with call

options and like I'm open to buying dips

but I don't think we need to be like

Mega impatient on Tesla though I do

think there's a chance the sucker is

going to run and touch 220 bucks by June

by the vote a lot of things could change

maybe that doesn't happen but do think

there's a lot of desire for Euphoria

over at Tesla but it's offset by uh

potential costs and spending at Tesla

and more Cuts is are they going to be

able to maintain margin uh how

profitable and how quickly can we get

FSD actually rolling money remember now

we're going to lap off of the FSD trials

and what we really want to see in Q2 is

please a lot of FSD signups give me

those $99 a month come on baby I need

more more of them so that's my take on

everything that's going on from the

stock market to the FED to Tesla all

that good stuff so make sure you check

out that expiring coupon code linked

down below meetkevin.com be there or be

square tomorrow for the house hack Q&A I

love you all thank you so much for being

here and we'll see you all soon goodbye