The 6 Major Market Catalysts THIS Week.

hey everyone meet kevin here so here's

the latest on catalyst that we should be

looking at

this week so i'm going to talk first

about a new catalyst that just came in

and then i'm also going to talk about

future catalysts for the rest of the

week

so if you are watching this in the week

of april 12th whether it's monday

tuesday wednesday thursday right

it's probably got something for you to

watch all right so here we go

uh today we just got a new survey of

consumer expectations for inflation's

out

or for inflation inflation uh and what's

neat about this is it it kind of gives

us a forecast

of how high individuals or consumers

actually think the consumer price

inflation or consumer price index is

going to go and this is unique because

what we're trying to understand is not

just what

inflation is last month but what

inflation might be

month after month after year after year

the reason for that is jerome powell

tells us

that inflation trends are going down

that inflation dynamics are going down

and that a lot has to happen to sort of

de-anchor us

from being in an environment of one

percent inflation well if consumers are

starting to expect

higher inflation and they continue to

hold that expectation

year after year after year this could be

a leading indicator for bigger inflation

coming

and folks the survey just came in and

the survey says

that our expectations for inflation over

the next

few years hit their highest levels

in march which was just reported since

march of 2014

with expectations for surging costs

especially in

housing now expectations for march of

those people who are polled

came in at 3.2 inflation a year from now

and 3.1 inflation

three years from now both of these

readings were up

a tad i think it was one tenth of one

percent from february

and uh survey respondents when they were

asked also

assumed that there would be higher

incomes and higher spending

going forward but that they did believe

inflation would come in

coming at 3.2 percent a year from now

and 3.1 percent

three years from now that goes really

counter

to what the fed has believed that

inflation would go up to potentially

around this two and a half to three

percent level

and then just modestly come back down

and kind of go back into the bottle the

genie will go back in the bottle so to

speak

the fed believes hey look if inflation

goes up three

three and a half percent two and a half

percent and then settles back down at

two point four two point two

ah we'll raise rates a little and we'll

get that right at that perfect beautiful

two percent number

well if consumers are expecting

inflation's actually going to be 3.2

percent and then 3.

uh to 1 3 years from now fed might be

unfortunately mistaken here and we might

see a lot more pain

coming from when the fed has to react to

raising rates faster now we'll see

who's going to end up being right

consumers or the fed

all right now let's look forward so that

is the data that already came out that

just came out

now let's look forward at new data so

tuesday morning we will have cpi

data consumer price inflation or

consumer price index data which measures

measures inflation there are generally

two reads we look at we look at the

broad scope of cpi and then we look at

core inflation

which core is just basically the same

basket minus food and energy

and so we're going to see what kind of

month over month increases we had that's

where we really want to focus on

what we really want to see is that

coming in as low as possible

ideally something like you know a third

of a percent

because even a third of a percent

implies an

annualized rate of inflation of

somewhere around

uh three and a half percent because if

you take a third

0.3 and multiply it by 12 you get 3.6

percent that's a lot right

and we're expecting larger inflation but

what we're really paying attention to

is how much did prices go up between

february and march and we want that

number to be as small as possible

in february so from january to february

we had the month-over-month data come in

at 0.4

so we're hoping for something under 0.4

that would be good

if it's you know if it's like 0.5 okay

all right maybe we're kind of bracing

for impact here anyway

if it comes in high kind of like the ppi

came in high the producer price index

which came in at one percent the market

could get a lot more shocked

so we're not so worried about that year

over year figure you're gonna see a lot

of headlines oh my gosh year over year

inflation you know 2.4 2.5 percent

whatever

what we're really going to be interested

in is that month over month figure so

that's what we're tracking

uh tomorrow i will be live at 5 25 a.m

california time

and uh 8 30 a.m or 8 25 a.m

eastern time so we can understand okay

what what happened

because uh that data will be coming up

first thing in the morning now at the

end of this month we'll also get the pce

which is another way of measuring the

consumer price index it just includes

some things that the cpi doesn't

this is actually the measure that the

fed uses it includes things like

medical care expenses paid for by

employer-sponsored insurances or

medicare it's

we expect them to be pretty similar cpi

because it's so much earlier than the

pce is going to be the one everybody i

think is paying attention to

now keep this in mind as well bloomberg

is already reporting that inflation is

already being priced into 12-month

shipping contracts

and that's because a lot of companies

are locking in 12-year contracts

with shipping container prices between

2500

and 3000. per 40 yard container or sorry

per 40

40 foot container now that's that's

substantially higher

than how much a container usually costs

to ship which is around fifteen hundred

dollars

it's somewhere around a chunk to twice

as high

and this is exactly the kind of stuff

that could end up

leaning consumer prices to go up which

as consumer prices go up those shipping

costs get passed on to the consumer what

do we have boob inflation

we're already expecting to see hot

growth this year which adds to inflation

as well

if we end up seeing 6.4 growth this year

by the way

we will end up having 2021 go down as

just a handful of years

that have grown this fast in a single

year over the last

70 years we used to grow at six percent

more frequently but in the last 70 years

it's not as common anymore to grow that

fast

with growth coming in or growth

expectations coming in at about 3.2

percent for 2022

we do expect that combined 21 to 22

will be some of the highest growth we

have seen since 2005

which is not exactly a date or year that

people in real estate want to hear

we don't want to make any connections to

2005. anyway so there's a little bit on

growth inflation expectations what

consumers are expecting

and a catalyst coming out on wednesday

we have

so the day after the cpi data comes out

we have the beige book of economic

conditions coming out on wednesday

the beige book is just really a summary

from the fed of here's what's going on

in the economy

we really don't expect massive surprises

in this

because we hear from the fed so darn

frequently so probably not the biggest

catalyst on a wednesday then on thursday

we get

march retail sales and we get march

industrial production both of those are

going to be key we want to see

industrial production up a lot to try to

help us

alleviate these supply chains keep in

mind industrial production

includes companies like mp materials

that make

magnets and parts for motors so think

input costs

for things like chips or motors or all

these

input sectors or utilities that's what

you're measuring with industrial

production we want to see that go up

up up we really want more production so

we can grease the wheels of this

economic growth as much as possible

especially since we're expecting so much

growth over this next year

we need as we need all cylinders firing

basically we don't want anything lagging

then on friday we get housing starts

this is also going to be a highly looked

after number

we want to see housing starts skyrocket

please

to help alleviate the madness that we

are seeing in the real estate

sector right now we definitely want to

uh eliminate

some of this supply shortage and one of

the easy ways to do that is just

building

unfortunately building does take usually

about two years from start to finish

uh so there will definitely be a lag

time and that does mean we'll still

experience quite a bit of a shortage for

a while then we've got earnings for the

rest of the week we've got

ogi coming at the top of the list for

implied volatility with 26.2 percent

uh with a tuesday report fast and all

will also be

reporting on a tuesday with an implied

6.1 percent move

we do have lovesack reporting wednesday

but the bigger ones that we're really

going to want to pay attention to

are going to be the financials we want

to see the financials take off

we got ally we got citizens financial

group

reporting we've got first republic bank

reporting we've got

b n y melon reporting and these are

going to be some of the big

intros to our earnings season and just

getting started here for q1

so we'll buckle up it's going to be one

heck of a ride obviously

the market is pricing in some insane

growth

and ex insane expectations so

i mean look at just the uh the s p 500

with the gains we've had

over the last four or five trading days

we're trading at a pretty high relative

strength index of the s p

500 we are relatively overbought right

now on the s p 500

which going into earnings well let's

just say a lot of people are holding

their breath

so here's a video full of catalysts for

you to pay attention to hopefully this

helps you out if it does consider

subscribing

folks thank you very much for watching

the video and we will see you in the

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