Mark THESE 7 Dates! Stock Catalysts June 2021

everyone me kevin here here are some

numbers to pay attention to for

june if you are investing in the market

and you want to know

what the heck is happening because the

market's been quite odd

so i'm going to give you some dates that

you want to pay attention to and what to

expect all right

first happens on june 1st which is

tomorrow

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day and that coupon code

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so june 1st ism manufacturing this is a

report on business activity basically

do businesses find that their business

is doing better

worse or the same the same is a 50. if

the reading comes in higher it means

that businesses

feel like things are going better than

they were last month

the last reading which was the april

reading released in may came in at 60.7

we expect this to come at 60.9

honestly i don't think that this is

going to be a big like

upside surprise or a big downside

surprise so this will probably mean

expectations just like on june 3rd when

they come out with a non-manufacturing

report of this

expected to come in at 63 not expecting

businesses to all of a sudden be a whole

lot more or less optimistic

more important though is what happens on

friday

because on friday we get jobs data again

unemployment data i'm not talking about

that weekly unemployment figure that

comes out every thursday

no i'm talking about the first friday of

every month when we get a new

unemployment

rate last month was a disaster

we were expecting 1 million new jobs and

what did we get

266 000

that led inflation expectations to go

down by the way

which is actually good and somewhat

cheered by the market

because the last thing the market wants

to feel like is things are overheating

and the faster we get to many new jobs

in the market

the faster the fed might pump the brakes

a little bit raising rates and slow this

market down

whoa there horsey well that was a big

miss last

month this month we are expecting 650

000 jobs and we'll see what happens if

we miss

again it's not going to be so good for

that inflation argument

lasting now we know the inflation issue

is here we're talking about lasting big

question is how long is that inflation

going to last

then we're also looking at labor force

participation right now we expect that

to go up a tiny bit

one tenth of one percent from 61.7 last

month

to 61.8 percent so not really expecting

a surprise there but the overall

number that's 650k job expectations

if that's a big miss see what happens

but

it could lead to some softening

inflation expectations and ironically do

good for some stocks like tax stocks

but if it's a big beat we get like a

million or 1.5 or something

then those inflationary concerns could

blow right back into the market which

we also have on june 10th cpi data

coming out

cpi can super price index data last

month

we had a 0.8 increase

month over month that was a big move and

remember we really care about month over

month data you're going to see this top

line number that's really high like

three or four percent whatever

year over year comparing into the whole

of last year both

april and may which compare april and

may to

april may of last year uh get reported

in may and june so this is the june

version right

for me these are both comparing back to

the whole of kovid

not the best year over year numbers to

use next month is we can

when we can finally put the whole the 12

month whole of covid

behind us so really what you want to

look for the cpi data is don't look at

the headline number oh inflation's four

percent or whatever forget that forget

that and i know many of you don't like

the cpi but really what you want to pay

attention to

month over month how much inflation do

we actually have

from may to june last month it was 0.8

we're expecting 0.4

so hopefully it comes in at point four

or less

so we can finally get past this uh kind

of you know funny summer

all right let's move that over uh all

right so uh then we've got

let's see here we have june 11th

so june 11th we have inflation

expectations that come out that's the

very next day

inflation expectations are a little

funny because

usually they go really really high when

inflation is really high

i generally don't look at inflation

expectations but you know who does

is the fed the fed cares about what

people's expectations are because if

people think there's going to be

inflation

then prices can sometimes go up as

people buy more

now rather than waiting to buy so we'll

see

right now we have uh the michigan

inflation expectations and it's not just

for the state of michigan it's a

university

it's a university report and they put it

together for the entire country

uh anyway the uh current expectations

are that the

one-year inflation expectations will be

4.6 percent and that

5 to 10 10-year inflation will be

somewhere around 3 percent

both of those numbers are substantially

higher than the fed's target of 2

percent

so we're still seeing people expect

higher inflation than what the fed

actually thinks they're going to be able

to get this down to

we'll see if people's expectations have

started to change

what's interesting about this report is

the 10-year break-even rate on inflation

has actually started to come down

this is fascinating it sort of started

falling after the jobs report last year

and what's really interesting about it

is we've only been seeing inflation

expectations go pretty much

straight up to the moon and they

recently u-turned so for example if you

just go to google and type in 10-year

uh 10-year break even rate 10-year break

even right you can put this in

this is kind of taking the 10-year

treasury bond

and aligning it with tips which is a way

of measuring

uh inflation protected securities and

this has been straight up

just sort of bottom line here it's

basically the chart's been going

straight up up up up up up

until we really got those jobs number

and inflation data here in may

and we really started to see it plummet

here recently

which is kind of interesting well i mean

i shouldn't really say it's a plummet

because it's gone up substantially over

the last few months

but it's definitely a move to the

downside it's a welcomed move to the

downside it's finally an inflection

point

in inflation and we want to see more of

that inflection point

personally i believe we're going to see

more of that coming in

obviously september october we've talked

about that many times before

and if we do get that inflection point

then we do expect

certain consumer discretionaries

especially online tech

uh maybe even spax and other stocks just

start doing better

than they have been the last three

months on june 15th we get

retail sales data it was kind of flat

the prior month and quite frankly we

want this to stay flat and while sure

it's good to have

growth we want to make sure that we're

not getting people going crazy and

in a sustained way spending money like

crazy because then

when we're really going to have that big

inflation now surprisingly

especially with expectations of maybe

going into a frugal decade we haven't

really expected retail sales data to

skyrocket

and even though it's obviously been

doing way better than

it was during covet it's not doing

anywhere

near as uh hot or or crazy as it could

be doing so

this is good uh jerome powell does speak

on june

16th which is the day after that uh it

is an fomc

rate meeting so obviously we will pay

attention to what is talked about here

especially since the federal reserve is

now talking about

potentially talking about talking about

tapering bonds which sounds really

kind of weird and complicated but

basically they might have a discussion

about the taper and you can guarantee

drone powell is going to get asked

hey what'd you guys talk about what

would you say about the paper

he goes yeah well you know i think we're

expecting him to say something like well

you know we talked about it but

we decided that uh where we have to

stick with our course and uh we have to

wait for much more

uh verification or validity of of the

markets substantial further progress

before we actually start to taper so

we'll just kind of keep it on the table

for the time being

and it'll probably do that to us for

like another year

before actually announcing anything who

knows maybe six months we'll see

i'll have to listen to that tone anywho

uh well uh folks there you have uh sort

of the dates to look for

this month not too many really exciting

ones towards the end of the month few

things

i like you know we get that the pce

which is the

personal consumption expenditures

inflation reading most people care about

the cpi relative to the pce they almost

tend to correlate anyway so i wouldn't

worry too much about some of the other

dates

yeah maybe they're things to pay

attention to but we'll talk about those

more when the time comes

these are the big dates to pay attention

to so again this friday is a big date

ism tomorrow yeah okay we're not

expecting anything right there

friday though big date i'd be writing

down friday and i would be writing down

june 10th

those are big dates right there june

11th uh and then of course the fomc

inflation expectations and then the

meeting on the 16th those are good dates

to have as well we'll track what happens

in this market it's been crazy we'll see

if it keeps going crazy

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[Music]

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