Yikes - This Changes Everything. LAST Warning.

hey everyone me Kevin here you ought to

buckle up because we've got a huge

debate for what's tomorrow and what

tomorrow is going to mean so make sure

to watch this whole video before

tomorrow because if you do you're going

to get some pretty serious and important

insights on artificial intelligence the

jobs report and much more what I'd like

to do though is I'd like to start with

artificial intelligence because

yesterday we got a little bit of insight

from some of the manufacturers that work

for asml and this is really important

because it goes into

what some of the Bulls are saying about

quite frankly where we are in the cycle

is this good or bad who's going to win

this debate yesterday we heard that some

of the suppliers for asml the chip

making Manufacturing Company in other

words the company that makes the

machines that make the chips uh they

have some partners that are delaying

machine parts with their suppliers and

some temporary jobs are starting to get

cut at some of these Dutch companies

like jdl TG vhe these jobs are just

being cut in part because there's what's

called a temporary stagnation occurring

in the field of artificial intelligence

that's some related to artificial

intelligence and asml are saying the

entire semiconductor industry is in a

dip and everyone knows that which is

really interesting because it comes at

the same time as UBS downgraded asml

from buy to neutral because they expect

to see lithography spending slow and

this is really interesting because that

is a form of capital investment that

might slow think about it once tsmc has

enough machines to make uh 5 nanometer

or 3 nanometer artificial intelligence

chips do they need to keep buying those

machines or do they just milk those

machines for the next five years and

just appreciate them over those 5 years

without having to continue to make the

capital in investment

expenditures well apparently UBS and

some of the suppliers for asml think a

Slowdown is starting which is really

interesting because I was reading a bull

piece by TS Lombard today and I'm a big

fan of when I'm bearish I like to read a

lot of bull pieces when when I'm a bull

I like to read a lot of bear pieces and

I like to share those with you because I

think it's the right thing to do I think

it's dangerous to only look for

confirmation bias in other words

people's opinions who agree with you and

trust me if you want to iions that are

going to disagree with you on like a

daily basis you know you can take

advantage of the coupon code expiring

tomorrow into the Labor Day week sale

and join me and get my opinion every

single day I've been doing this for

quite a while now but TS Lombard is

making this interesting argument that

we're on track for a soft Landing

because there's no glaring inbalance or

failure of the cyclical economy defined

by durable goods consumption equipment

investing or residential investment

instead TS Lombard says all of those

recovered from their 2022 to lows and

instead they're calling what we're

seeing now a unique fake cycle in other

words this time is different but wait a

minute if asml is starting to see

lithography equipment slow down

lithography equipment sales slow down is

that a sign that maybe the chips

industry is going to start petering out

its growth just in the same way that

black rock is worried about growth see

this is interesting because black rock

is also bullish another bullish piece

was reading yesterday uh and today which

is that software and Enterprise may be

waiting for AI advances despite all the

infrastructure build outs we've seen but

you might see some of these Enterprise

companies and software companies move a

little slower when it comes to

artificial intelligence and don't worry

valuations remain solid so everything is

fine that's basically what black rock is

saying they're just saying some

companies might still be a little

nervous to adopt AI because they're

concerns about accuracy and cost now I

thought this was really interesting

because at the same time as you're

getting murmurings about these slowdowns

and artificial intelligence you're

basically getting Black Rock telling you

don't worry they're just waiting for the

efficiencies of artificial intelligence

to get better and then we'll see

artificial intelligence balloon in usage

which aligns with what the New York fed

just said on artificial intelligence

which is that there are only about 25%

of service firms and 16% of

manufacturers who actually use AI so

black Rock's kind of like don't worry uh

once AI gets better then people will use

AI then you have people at asml they're

like uh equipment spending is slowing

down and TS Lombard's like don't worry

we're not going into a recession because

the equipment spending sector isn't

slowing down and I'm like wait a minute

if it does slow down does that mean we

are going into a recession and so what

was fascinating about Black Rock was on

September 3rd which was Tuesday we had a

pretty big red day Nvidia was down like

10% and black rock released an update on

this story and their argument was well

um artificial intelligence stocks are

now cheaper than they were before the

rally because uh we had a little bit of

a crash and uh don't worry just be

patient they actually think that

investors today are just being too

impatient uh they say don't bet against

AI in the long term instead you should

bet on patience in the near term now I

personally uh am a big fan of not

arguing that Now's the Time for patience

like buy and be patient for AI to play

out I'm actually a big fan of I'm going

to like have cash or treasury BS I mean

I've got over uh$ 1 to2 million dollar

of call options on certain plays that I

think are going to do really well

recession or soft Landing which is

really exciting we talk about those in

the course member live streams uh we

just did even more analysis on that

today uh but what's interesting here is

Black Rock is suggesting right after you

have a really red day hey um you know

all the concerns over AI they're just

overblown don't worry this is just a

normalization and the uh the stuff is uh

it's getting better it's getting better

and I'm like okay okay or or we are

going to have a lot of volatility

between now and the election that

volatility is going to be met with very

little liquidity which is the capacity

of other people to buy remember this

whole notion that oh there's all this

excess cash on the sidelines no no no no

no no no remember BCA research told us

that there's a record low level of cash

on the sidelines that households and

investment funds have very little money

to deploy the cash that's in money

markets on the sidelines those record

highs those are sitting over at like

apple and Microsoft you know those are

the big cash banks of the people like

Warren Buffett these aren't people that

are going to blow all their money on

stocks just to buy the dip they're

waiting for like the really nasty dip

where they can buy companies on for

pennies on the dollar these people are

going through stress and bankruptcy yeah

it's kind of evil but I mean that's

capitalism right they're the sharks so I

I'm not so optimistic so then TS Lombard

the Bulls they're like and besides don't

worry that the unemployment rate went up

it only went up because labor force

participation is

expanding okay that's cool but US Bank

uh sorry UBS not US Bank UBS says yes

labor force is expanding it was almost

like a direct response to TS Lombard and

I love the drama UBS is like yeah labor

force is expanding because people are

nervous about the economy you dummies

and I'm like oh the drama's getting real

out here cuz they're basically saying

hey if you're nervous about the economy

you're going to come out of retirement

you're going to go make some money

before crash so you could preserve your

retirement or if you're a single- income

household you're going to quickly send

your spouse to work because you want to

pick up some extra dollars in case you

lose your job so you've got this huge du

ity of opinions here where black Rock's

like don't worry we know people aren't

using AI yet but they will just be

patient don't bet against AI I agree I

don't want to bet against AI in the long

term but am I going to bet that it's

going to go to the Moon between now and

the election no I'm not going to do that

am I going to be patient yes why because

usually the market goes down between now

and the election and then I think

there'll be a great buy the dip

opportunity like around Halloween maybe

even earlier who knows but the problem

is I want to see are are we going to

have more recession data between now and

then like what are Q3 erings going to

tell us which we'll get in October but

what's also very interesting is you've

got people like Nick T telling us hey

you know the yield curve uninverted

right uh or you know it's sort of been

bobbing around plus or minus one basis

point this isn't really a big deal

usually when the yield curve un inverts

you're waiting for like the big spike

which comes out of Black Swan style

event when you're really like oh my gosh

in a crash but what I was really

bothered by was uh Nick T showed the

change in the S&P 500 before and after

the

uninversity so look at that July 1998 I

had to ask myself Nick why did you use

July 1998 somebody on X actually wrote

that was the same year or the year after

where Clinton cut the capital gains tax

to 20% from

28% uh introduced the Roth IRA and made

primary Sal primary resident sales

exempt from capital gains on the first

250k or 500k if Mar if married so this

was a major lift for markets this person

argues but I don't even care what

happened politically during that time I

care about this look what I wrote here I

wrote between 1980 and 1982 we had 201

basis points of inversion in 89 we had

46 basis points of inversion in 98 which

is what Nick T said we only had five

basis points of inversion like what why

are we even talking about 1998 this

doesn't make sense Nick T this is like

this is like a waste of a time what are

you doing because in 2000 we had 47

basis points of inversion in

2007 I wrote a I wrote 16 basis points

of inversion which isn't even that much

but it was already a Great Recession

right and in 2023 we had 106 basis

points of inversion so my point here is

we had all of these that I listed here

were recessions with the exception of

1998 and they all had significantly

larger inversions usually people say the

deeper the inversion the deeper the FED

cuts are going to have to be to bail us

out of the recession that's about to

occur and I think that's why you've got

people like um some hedge fund managers

uh it was Mr pulson not Hank pson but I

wrote this down Mr pulson anyway his POV

oh yeah here it was hedge fund

billionaire pson fed likely needs to get

rates under 2 and a half% the market is

only pricing in that rates are going to

go to about 3 to 3 and 1 12% right now

actually I can get you the most updated

information right now which in my

opinion means rates are probably going

to get cut a whole lot more than markets

are pricing in markets are pricing in a

soft Landing we have a 40% chance of a

50 basis point cut uh and we're only

pricing in rates going down to about

three we're not pricing in lower than

three right now so anything under three

still needs to get reflected and there

are a lot of trades in my opinion out

there that you could use to take

advantage of that uh so uh those are the

kind of Trades we're talking about in

the course member live streams and in my

portfolio that I'm showing to people in

in our um uh you know where I show my

current allocations in the courses so if

you're not part of it yet do remember

prices go up tomorrow at 11:59 p.m.

email us at staff atme kevin.com if you

have any questions but otherwise just go

to Meek kevin.com when you pay once you

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years from now if you want to know

what's Kevin allocating to right now

it's not for you to copy me I can't

guarantee you I'm going to be right but

at least it gives you perspective go

check it out go learn about it so what's

interesting here though is the standard

for data that we're getting is is going

up because there's so much of a debate

out there right now consider that the

CEO of interactive brokers right now is

saying that stocks need Goldilocks to

keep going up you don't want too hot you

don't want too cold bad news is bad and

maybe the FED is too late because even

if they decide to go 50 here in

September they might be too late so then

I'm like okay well why did markets start

rallying a little bit this morning and

they started rallying this morning a

little bit because isms ISM Services

started popping up a little bit but then

I'm like all right well let's look at

the history of isms okay well uh isms

were at a peak literally in August of

2008 so they gave you like literally no

notice and then all of a sudden stocks

crashed and that was after a three-year

downtrend okay well ism's recently

peaked over here in February of 22 and

we've been on a downtrend for two and a

half years and if we align with a peak

like right here before the crash we're

basically at the same level also after a

near three-year downtrend we could

totally have a big collapse like that

and stocks usually bottom after ISM

Services bottom so little bit of a red

flag the same thing happened over here

although it was less of a leading

decline when isms peaked in August of

000 the stock market peaked like a year

or sorry bottomed a year later so like

ism's being at the level where they are

now I don't know that it's actually very

bullish I think it's actually just sort

of like a noisy signal it's not too

useful I know a lot of people are are uh

looking oh see the data was good this

morning I'm like okay but what does that

usually signal because it's been good

right before giant plummets before we

already know that uh Celsius is losing

its pricing power why the stock has

collapsed like 67% from its double Peak

uh we know that ADP employment came in

weaker than expected 99k versus 145 with

a minus 11k revision last month and we

know that 20,000 of the job losses came

in professional business services and

information only 8K in manufacturing

which is a problem because all of a

sudden it means hey a white caller

recession could actually be more likely

and white collar workers are usually the

kinds of workers who aren't going to

file for unemp employment that's a

problem because you know they're getting

uh uh what's it called they're getting

um severances potentially or maybe

they're not getting severances uh maybe

they've got too much of a a reputation

to to want to go on and unemployment or

they have side income or their previous

income was too high to actually show up

on unemployment claims this is why I'm

so frustrated when I people hear people

say Hey you know unemployment claims are

fine they're at a you know the moving

average of the last 3 months is going

down I go could you pick a more lagging

indicator of recession it's insane so

like when you put all of this together

we're not like coast is clear here asml

is warning you about the AI slowdown we

already know Nvidia got punished because

people are worried about the growth rate

slowing down we know that ISM Services

aren't a leading indicator we know TS

Lombard is bullish because labor force

force participa participation expanded

but wait a minute who cares if labor

force participation expanded if UBS is

right and people are just going back to

work because they're nervous about a

recession coming up and the economy

actually sucking now right now the jobs

Market is expecting 165,000 jobs in

August which is definitely a pickup from

the

114,000 jobs that we had reported in

July that was really weak and the

unemployment rate is expected to drop to

4.2% I'm a little worried about that

because that could suggest that markets

are actually really looking for a really

good report tomorrow and if we miss

these high expectations ations which is

unemployment rate going down and jobs

coming in strong at 165 if we miss that

high expectation we're just going to

tank but in addition to that you got to

think about the fact that even if the

numbers come out good you know they're

just going to revise them down again and

so next week on 911 we'll have CPI

numbers which we're expecting to be 02

and 0.2 uh for core 0.2 month over month

TS Lombard's a bull we know there are a

lot of bulls out there but I have to say

I'm nervous I know black rock is bullish

I know people are trying to be bullish

I'm just I'm really trying to let

patience guide me on this one especially

since there's this weird like spread

that you're getting between GDP and GDI

right now GDI is gross domestic income

and usually when that's spread spreads

it's because GDP is overestimated and

the same thing happened in 2001 where

they just Revis it away like in 2001 we

were told we had one quarter of negative

GDP and then the summer after that like

June or July of 2002 they just revised

two more quarters of negative GDP data

and it's like what we thought we were

growing at 2% now you're telling us

we're negative .8% it's like yeah oh

yeah by the way we're in recession now

it's like oh thanks for telling us a

year late yeah so I don't know I'm

nervous if you want to learn more you

want to ask me questions you want to

talk to me make sure to join the courses

over at Meek kevin.com coupon expires

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know what these are these aren't like

little day trades these are these are

Big trades anyway thanks so much for

watching we'll see you in the next one

goodbye and good luck these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it Go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

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