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The Great Metals Crash of 2026: What 140 Years of Data Predicts Happens Next . This may surprise!

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0:05

Ah, there you are. Hello, my name is

0:08

Clive Thompson. Today is January 31st,

0:12

2026. It's Saturday.

0:15

Yesterday was Friday, often known as

0:18

Smackdown Friday, and what a smackdown

0:21

it was for precious metals. It was a day

0:24

of historic proportions. We witnessed a

0:28

bloodbath in the metals market. So today

0:31

I'm going to be talking about that. I'm

0:33

going to be telling you what caused it

0:35

and why people might have got it wrong.

0:38

I'm going to tell you what comes next or

0:40

at least what might come next based on

0:43

historical precedent.

0:45

So let's just go back a little bit and

0:47

talk about what's been going on

0:48

historically. After a spectacular

0:51

year-long rally that saw gold and silver

0:55

smash record after record on Friday,

0:59

Smackdown Friday as I sometimes call it,

1:02

the bubble didn't just leak. It burst

1:05

violently.

1:06

Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium

1:11

all plummeted in a sell-off that has

1:14

left investors breathless and asking

1:17

themselves two questions. Why did this

1:20

happen and what comes next?

1:23

So, let's start by just looking at the

1:26

chart of this bloodbath. So, I'm going

1:29

to bring the browser up and we'll have a

1:30

look at that. So, let's go to gold to

1:34

start off with.

1:36

Here you see the huge collapse in gold.

1:39

This is a daily chart going back to

1:41

September last year. Uh you can see in

1:43

September last year the price was 3,300

1:46

and something. It rose quite slowly to

1:49

start with until it was past the $4,000

1:52

mark by about um dis early December and

1:56

then it accelerated in December,

1:58

crashing through the $5,000 mark without

2:01

even stopping. Went all the way up to

2:04

nearly 5,600. Uh might have might have

2:07

touched 5,600 with depending on which

2:10

chart you're looking at. uh and then

2:13

slipped a little bit and then we see on

2:15

Thursday, but Friday, look at that drop.

2:19

Gold was down 8.99%

2:21

ending up at $4,89359,

2:30

a drop of 8.99%, call it a drop of 9%

2:33

for simplicity. And the futures, the

2:36

nearated futures fell even further. They

2:39

finished at about $150 below the spot

2:42

price. Uh down $69 on the day or 11.39%.

2:50

Silver fared even worse. Spot silver was

2:56

down an incredible

2:58

26.44%.

3:02

I think I've got to repeat that. 26.44%

3:05

44% down in one day or $30 odd dollars

3:09

$305 in a day. But the futures, the

3:13

nearated futures down $35.90.

3:19

That's more than silver was worth 6

3:22

months ago. That was a drop of $31.37%.

3:27

Nearly a third of its market value was

3:30

knocked off in one day.

3:32

Platinum didn't fare any much better,

3:36

down 17.2% or uh finishing at 2150 and

3:40

palladium down 16.25

3:42

ending at 1682.

3:48

In Shanghai,

3:50

the

3:52

futures price dropped $21

3:55

or or 16%. But I think we can't look at

3:58

any of these prices and regard them as

4:01

real because these prices are going to

4:03

bear no resemblance to what we see on

4:05

Monday. On Monday, we might see a fall

4:08

further fall or we might see an

4:10

extremely strong rally uh and the prices

4:13

you're seeing in coin shops and the

4:14

prices you're seeing uh in different

4:16

countries and different places are all

4:18

over the place. So take really you have

4:20

to take no notice of these prices other

4:23

than to get the direction uh which has

4:25

been down.

4:31

So today we're going to look at what the

4:33

impact of these falls could be on the

4:36

stock market, what they could do to

4:38

Bitcoin and what history teaches us

4:40

about what's going to come next. Now

4:43

I've conducted a deep analysis this and

4:45

I've started very very early this

4:47

morning and it's now um 7:00 over 7:00

4:50

in after 7:00 in the evening in Europe.

4:53

Um so I've been doing this all day. Um,

4:56

I've conducted a deep analysis of every

4:58

major stock market crash going all the

5:00

way back to 1885 to see what happens

5:03

after a day like yesterday. And I've

5:06

also looked at all the previous crashes

5:08

in gold and silver to see what might

5:10

happen next. And I'm going to be telling

5:12

you that shortly. The results might

5:14

surprise you or they might not. But

5:17

let's get into it. First,

5:21

let's get a handle on the scale of this

5:23

collapse. As you can see on the chart

5:26

looking at the gold price, the the rally

5:29

was nothing short of parabolic. In 2025,

5:35

gold surged 66%

5:39

and silver was up an incredible

5:43

135%.

5:45

Then just before the crash, gold was

5:48

flirting with $5,600

5:50

and silver had soared past $120

5:56

and then the floor gave way.

6:00

Let's have a look at the damage which

6:03

was done on Friday, January 30th,

6:08

yesterday.

6:11

So here we see the very very large drops

6:15

in prices of the futures. 31% go silver

6:19

11% gold platinum 18% and palladium down

6:24

nine. And the spot prices were also down

6:26

very very sharply.

6:35

Now moving on. This obviously wasn't a

6:38

minor correction. It was a violent

6:41

unwinding of one of the most crowded

6:43

trades in the market.

6:48

The ETFs that track these metals also

6:52

fell and felt the full force of the

6:55

blow.

6:57

The popular iShares silver trust at the

7:00

symbol is SLV

7:02

lost 31%

7:05

of its value even more than the spot

7:08

price of silver.

7:12

And again, don't take that as being

7:15

representative of the net asset value.

7:18

Um things were moving so fast it may be

7:21

above or below the net asset value of

7:24

those shares at the moment. We'll find

7:25

out on Monday as thing as as prices well

7:29

we don't know prices are probably going

7:30

to move very fast on Monday one way or

7:32

the other. Um so I'm not going to say

7:35

which direction other than I'll tell you

7:37

what I think in a minute. Um but we'll

7:39

get to that. But another one which

7:41

really really hurt was the ProShares

7:44

Ultra Silver Fund

7:48

that cratered by over 62%.

7:51

So beware of leveraged funds. They can

7:54

move far further and far faster than you

7:57

can imagine. It was one of the worst

7:59

days on record for both.

8:03

So what happened? Why did the market

8:08

suddenly panic and sell all its gold and

8:10

silver?

8:13

Well, President Trump announced his

8:16

nomination of the next chair for the

8:21

Federal Reserve. His name is Kevin

8:24

Walsh.

8:26

He was a former governor

8:29

and he has been seen as

8:33

uh a sound money person because of the

8:36

fact in 2011

8:38

he resigned from the Federal Reserve.

8:42

Why? Because he didn't agree with the um

8:45

quantitive easing QE2 it was known as at

8:49

the time and he felt that this would be

8:53

inflationary.

8:54

So you can see based on that a lot of

8:57

people see him as a hard money man. But

8:59

I think you're going to find out a lot

9:01

more this weekend and on Monday. Uh

9:04

because

9:06

looking at some of the things he's said

9:08

since um my conclusion and I won't go

9:11

into too many details here, but my

9:14

conclusion is that he's a person who

9:17

tends to follow whoever is in power at

9:20

the time. and he has made some

9:22

statements um which you can read about

9:25

if you Google it but they make me think

9:28

that he's not at all going to be uh

9:31

hawkish uh but rather could well be very

9:34

dovish and support lowering of interest

9:37

rates something which even President

9:40

Trump has said he expects that he will

9:43

be lowering rates he Trump says he

9:45

agrees with him that rates should go

9:47

lower

9:48

but that's not how the market saw it on

9:50

Friday because they didn't know that.

9:52

They perhaps hadn't got time to read up

9:53

on him. But I think you're going to find

9:55

out that uh that that view that they

9:57

employing somebody who is uh um going to

10:01

defend the Federal Reserve as was seen

10:03

back in 2011 uh defend the independence

10:06

of the Federal Reserve. Perhaps uh it's

10:10

not all that it seemed at first sight.

10:13

Um that's just my opinion. We'll see

10:16

what the papers and um TV channels make

10:19

of it over the weekend.

10:22

Anyway, his appointment had an immediate

10:25

and powerful effect on the US dollar.

10:28

Let's have a look at that now and see

10:30

what happened to the dollar. So, I'm

10:32

going to bring up the DXY.

10:35

The DXY is an index of

10:38

a basket of currencies. Now last year

10:42

the

10:44

to just make that fit on the graph here.

10:46

Auto fit. There we are. Last year the

10:49

DXY

10:51

that's the dollar index fell by about

10:53

10%. There we are from there to there on

10:56

that red line. And it started falling

10:59

just last few days until yesterday when

11:03

we heard about the appointment of Kevin

11:05

Walsh and the dollar rallied about 1%.

11:11

Now a stronger dollar means it will cost

11:14

foreigners more to buy gold. So it's a

11:18

contributory factor perhaps in the in

11:21

gold's fall. But of course what was

11:23

really going on in the fall was as it

11:26

started to plummet it triggered stop

11:29

losses. Stop losses are where someone

11:31

has said I'll buy some gold but if it

11:34

falls below a certain level I want this

11:36

to be automatically sold. Do not consult

11:39

me, just do it. That's a stop-loss. So,

11:43

if it touches a certain price, the gold

11:45

is automatically sold at the next price.

11:47

It doesn't mean to say you get the price

11:48

of your stop loss. You get the next

11:51

price after that stop loss, which could

11:53

be 5 cents lower, it could be 10 cents

11:56

lower, it could be dollar lower, it

11:57

could be $5 lower. Um, I personally

12:00

would never recommend anyone to put a

12:02

stop-loss, but uh the whole world is

12:04

full of people who uh have leveraged

12:07

bets. uh they they borrowed or betting

12:10

10 times as much money as they've got.

12:12

Uh and they know they could lose it all,

12:14

but to make sure they don't lose more

12:16

than they've got, they have what's

12:18

called a stop-loss. So, if the price

12:20

falls beyond a certain point, they're

12:21

auto sold, ensuring that they maybe they

12:25

don't have anything left, but they

12:27

haven't lost more than they uh they had

12:29

to start with. And of course, if you're

12:31

on a contracts for difference uh site,

12:34

CFDs as they're called, um those sites

12:38

often let you trade five, 10, sometimes

12:41

many times more, even one or two up to

12:44

100 times as much as your net worth in

12:46

the of money you've got on the site. So,

12:48

of course, those sort of sites have very

12:51

tight stop- losses because they don't

12:53

want to be going to collecting money

12:55

from people on the other side of the

12:57

world. um they'd much rather that the

13:01

position that p a person's taken is sold

13:04

before there's a problem of trying to

13:05

get the cash. So

13:08

if you place a order on a contract for

13:11

difference site to buy or sell gold or

13:14

silver, there's an automatic stop-loss

13:16

being put in place depending on how much

13:18

money you've got in the account. And of

13:21

course, futures traders also are like

13:23

that. They trade on margin. they only

13:26

have to put up a certain amount of

13:27

margin about 10%. And if the price

13:29

starts falling against them, they

13:32

immediately have to put up extra cash.

13:34

And if they haven't got the extra cash,

13:35

they have no choice but to sell into the

13:38

market at any price. Uh and again, that

13:41

would be done by some sort of stop-loss

13:43

if they haven't got their money.

13:48

So,

13:51

because of the incredibly huge rally,

13:55

we'd had more and more people coming

13:56

into a crowded trade, uh, buying gold

13:59

and silver. They were short-term

14:00

traders. They'd come in, uh, they were

14:02

putting stop losses to prevent them to

14:05

avoid them losing more than they could

14:06

afford to lose. And once one stop loss

14:09

gets triggered, that pushes the price

14:11

lower, which triggers the next stop

14:13

loss, which pushes the price lower,

14:14

which triggers the next one, and so on

14:15

and so forth. and to add fuel to the

14:18

fire when this sort of thing starts to

14:20

happen. There are some big boys who come

14:22

in to effectively short the market

14:25

because they know they know the price is

14:26

going lower when they see they can see

14:28

they've got visibility on all these stop

14:30

losses. They can oh there's one there,

14:31

one there, one there, one there, one

14:33

there. All we have to do is sell into

14:34

the market. We'll trigger all these stop

14:35

losses and we can buy back at a lower

14:37

price.

14:39

So these stop losses cause the market to

14:42

cascade into like dominoes. one domino

14:46

knocks over the next one and it it goes

14:48

it's a downward spiral. Uh but of course

14:51

there are people profiting it from it

14:53

because they know exactly where those

14:54

stop losses sit and they can sell it at

14:57

one price and expecting to buy back when

14:59

all the stop losses are triggered and

15:01

they can buy back and make a profit. Uh

15:04

so when you've got these upwards

15:07

movements like uh what we have seen kind

15:09

of a parabolic move you get more and

15:12

more people putting in very very tight

15:14

stop- losses like hair triggers and the

15:17

slightest decline can trigger them all

15:19

to go off at the same time and that's

15:21

what happened on Friday. So the shock

15:24

wave from the metal markets was felt

15:25

across other markets too. Stocks took a

15:28

little bit of a hit. It wasn't much. The

15:30

Dow Jones uh industrial average and the

15:32

S&P both fell by 0.4%.

15:36

While the tech heavy NASDAQ index

15:39

dropped by 0.9%. It wasn't very much at

15:41

all. Uh but the hardest hit part of the

15:44

market and this I know will be hurting

15:46

many many people myself included um was

15:50

the mining shares sector. Now, it

15:53

doesn't matter if you started buying

15:55

mining shares 9 months or 12 months ago

15:58

when I started talking about them

15:59

because you're still well up. But if you

16:02

bought them in the last month or so, u

16:05

and particularly in the last month,

16:06

you'll be looking at a loss because

16:08

those mining shares fell very very

16:10

heavily. Um, one example, for example,

16:13

was Kerr Mining. Um, that's a silver

16:15

miner that's down 17% but many mining

16:19

stocks were down much much more than

16:21

that.

16:24

Bitcoin, sometimes called digital gold,

16:28

didn't offer any safe haven either. Um,

16:31

it's been in a down downward trend for

16:34

some time since last October and its

16:37

price was down another 2% towards

16:39

$81,000

16:41

on Friday. Um it's at currently at about

16:46

$78,000 over the weekend on Saturday

16:49

afternoon at late afternoon.

16:52

So both old world and new world gold

16:56

bitcoin or gold physical gold both were

17:00

falling.

17:02

But what does this huge fall this crash

17:06

tell us about what's going to happen

17:08

next? Can we find out uh or can we have

17:12

a guide? Now, I have taken the time

17:14

since first thing this morning. I've

17:16

been up first thing this morning and

17:17

I've been studying until now. It's now

17:20

uh nearly 8:00 in the evening European

17:22

time. Um I've studied every single

17:25

crash, every single single day crash in

17:28

the Dow Jones Industrial Average since

17:31

1885.

17:33

Now, that's 130 years of history and

17:37

more than 38,000

17:39

data points. I also looked at every

17:41

single crash in gold and silver. Uh

17:45

although on that I couldn't go back uh

17:48

nearly as far as 1885 with the Dow

17:51

Jones. But I'll get into the gold and

17:53

silver shortly. Uh but let's just start

17:56

by talking about

17:59

uh the fact that my conclusion as to

18:02

what's going to happen is the same.

18:05

Whether it be stocks or precious metals,

18:08

they both tend to behave in the same way

18:11

after a crash.

18:15

So let's look at the stock market

18:16

crashes. I started looking for a crash

18:19

of the same order of magnitude as the

18:21

silver crash. And unfortunately I maybe

18:26

it's fortunate, I don't know. I could

18:27

only find one crash in the Dow Jones of

18:31

over 15%

18:33

which is kind of like the silver crash

18:35

of uh what did we see uh it was down

18:38

26%.

18:40

So there was only one crash which was

18:41

greater than that. Um and on that

18:45

occasion in the Dow Jones that is

18:49

the Dow rallied strongly immediately

18:53

after the crash. 7 days later it was up

18:55

6.2% 2% and a year later it was up at

18:58

another all-time high of 31.21%.

19:02

So within a year, not only did it fully

19:05

recover the crash, but it went on to

19:07

make another high. But that was just one

19:10

data point of a crash of that scale. So

19:12

we can't really draw any conclusions. I

19:14

then tried to look at crashes of 10% or

19:17

more, but they also are incredibly rare.

19:21

There were only four instances. So

19:25

again, and I I don't think we can draw a

19:27

firm conclusion. So I broadened my

19:29

criteria to look at the single day

19:33

crashes of 5% or more. Now that's more

19:37

like in line with what gold did. Um

19:41

gold, don't forget, uh we're over here

19:43

it fell by 8.99%.

19:46

A bit more on the futures market, 11% on

19:49

the futures, but on the spot market it

19:51

was down 9%. So, um, I was looking at

19:55

all the stock market crashes at this

19:57

point of 5% or more, and most of them

20:00

fell in the range of 5% to 10% in line

20:03

with what gold did on Friday. And this

20:06

gave me a much larger and more

20:09

statistically significant sample size of

20:12

85 crashes since 1885. Yes, the stock

20:17

market dropped by more than 5% in a

20:20

single day. 85 times since 1885.

20:24

And this is where I start to see a clear

20:26

pattern.

20:28

Following a 5% or more single day crash,

20:33

the stock market, the Dow Jones

20:35

Industrial Average, was twice as likely

20:38

to move up strongly than it was to

20:41

continue falling.

20:43

Let's look at the numbers

20:46

here. I'm going to bring the numbers up

20:49

here.

20:51

So, as you can see, looking at this,

20:56

this tells us the time after the crash

20:59

of the Dow Jones by 5% or more. I'm

21:02

looking at what happened 7 days after,

21:04

30 days after, 3 months after, 6 months

21:07

after, and one year after.

21:11

And as we can see, whoops, I've gone off

21:14

the page. Go back to the page. As we can

21:17

see over every period

21:22

there were more gains typically twice as

21:25

many gain upsides as there were downside

21:28

periods. Now that's two out of three

21:31

chance probability that the next move is

21:35

going to be up as opposed to a one in

21:38

three chance of down. But of course it's

21:40

still rolling the dice. But we can see

21:44

that on average if we go to the one-year

21:46

mark at the one-year mark there were 62

21:51

occasions where it had risen strongly

21:54

and only 23 occasions one-third as many

21:58

so where it had fallen and on the 62

22:02

occasions more than two out of three

22:04

times the average rise a year later had

22:08

been 38.22%.

22:10

22%.

22:15

But that doesn't tell us with a

22:17

certainty what's going to happen on

22:18

Monday. Uh but it does tell us where the

22:21

probability tends to lie. At least we

22:24

were looking at the stock market there.

22:28

So this is not looking at the precious

22:30

metals market, but it provides some sort

22:33

of historical analog of what happens

22:36

after crashes. It shows that

22:39

historically sharp and violent crashes

22:45

have often represented a buying

22:49

opportunity, certainly more often they

22:50

were a buying opportunity than a signal

22:53

to run for the hills. In other words,

22:56

did it make any sense to sell after a

22:59

crash? Uh well the answer is no it

23:01

didn't because the odds were in your

23:03

favor that you'd have a strong rally

23:06

pushing back to a much much higher level

23:08

than the the point from which you fell

23:11

in probability.

23:14

So panic selling tends to create

23:17

oversold conditions which are often

23:20

followed by very strong rebounds

23:26

and I think that perhaps that this will

23:28

happen this time. Uh obviously they're

23:30

going to look at this guy Kevin Walsh

23:32

over the weekend and discover that

23:33

perhaps he's not such a sound money

23:36

person as the market initially thought

23:39

and maybe he will be doing Mr. Trump's

23:41

bidding and voting for lower interest

23:45

rates at the Federal Reserve.

23:47

Um which of course will be fueling

23:50

inflation to some extent uh and it will

23:54

also fuel the stock market and the

23:56

precious metals market.

23:59

But what happens next after a brutal

24:02

crash like this?

24:05

So

24:06

I went obviously as I I I went I went to

24:09

the stock market and I analyzed um six I

24:13

looked at the went beyond the stock

24:14

market. I looked at the gold and silver

24:16

markets to see what happens to gold and

24:18

silver when we have crashes like this.

24:21

Now, I couldn't go back as far as the

24:25

1800s, unfortunately, as I could with

24:27

the stock market. In fact, I could only

24:30

find the data going back to August 2000.

24:33

Um, but that's still 26 years of data

24:36

nearly. Um,

24:38

and it's 6,300

24:41

data points I could look at uh for gold

24:44

and silver.

24:47

And I identified every single day where

24:51

gold or silver crashed by 5% or more on

24:54

the day.

24:57

So typically that would be a move of 5

24:59

to 10% in line with what gold did on

25:02

Friday down 8.99%.

25:04

So I tacked every single movement where

25:06

there was a crash in one day of more

25:08

than 5%. And then I tracked what

25:10

happened to the precious metal gold or

25:13

silver in the days and months which

25:15

followed.

25:17

And the results are quite fascinating,

25:20

but actually there's a stark difference

25:22

between the two metals.

25:26

So for gold, a single day crash

25:32

of 5% or more

25:35

is an incredibly rare event.

25:39

In the 25 years of data that I can look

25:41

at, it only happened about 10 times.

25:46

This tells us that gold is relatively

25:48

speaking a far more stable asset than

25:52

its volatile cousin silver.

25:56

Let's just have a quick look at how that

26:00

did. So, I'm going to go over here

26:06

and

26:07

bring up the There we are. This is gold.

26:12

And I'm looking at what happened seven

26:14

days after a 5% crash.

26:16

31 days after a 5% crash or one year

26:20

after a 5% crash. The reason these

26:23

figures don't all add up to nine is in

26:26

one one occasion uh the difference was

26:30

actually 0%. Um but what we see is after

26:36

one year

26:38

there were three times as many or three

26:40

times as much probability uh three out

26:43

of four probability that the price would

26:47

rise. I've gone to the wrong sheet here.

26:50

Go back to that. There we are. Now

26:52

that's only six versus two. Uh so six

26:55

rises or two falls. It's not a huge and

26:59

statistically significant number, but it

27:01

does tell us that it was historically

27:03

was more likely to rise after a 5% crash

27:06

than fall. And on average, gold was up

27:09

13.99%

27:11

one year later, more than recovering the

27:14

fall. But of course, you had to be

27:16

patient to get that.

27:25

So whilst the market after a crash in

27:28

gold was more likely to go up than down,

27:32

the rebounds were not as dramatic as one

27:34

might expect.

27:38

One year after the 5% crash,

27:43

gold on the when when it went up was up

27:47

about 38%. But if we take into account

27:50

the losses, it would have been on

27:53

average up 9.34% if you take the loss

27:55

years as well as the positive years.

27:58

But silver is rather different.

28:03

Silver tells us a completely different

28:06

story.

28:09

A 5%

28:11

or greater single day crash is not an

28:14

anomaly. It's a regular feature of the

28:16

market. Since 2000, the year 2000,

28:21

silver has experienced

28:24

96 crashes of 5% or more.

28:30

So those who are in silver have had a

28:34

stomach churning time over the years, of

28:36

which most of which they've forgotten,

28:38

but on 96 occasions, they've seen 5%

28:41

falls in silver or greater. And of

28:44

course, yesterday was probably greater

28:47

than any of those falls ever.

28:50

Let's see how silver performed after

28:54

those 96 crashes.

28:57

And I'll bring that up here

29:04

where we were on it. Sorry.

29:08

Yeah, there we were on it. So, uh, by

29:12

the way, these figures don't always add

29:14

up to 96 because some of the, uh,

29:16

returns after one year were zero. So,

29:18

they're ne neither positive nor

29:20

negative. Um, but we see that on after

29:24

one year after a crash of 5% or more,

29:29

silver was up

29:31

56 times and it was down 32 times. And

29:36

the average gain for the up moves was

29:39

38%

29:41

obviously uh clearly exceeding the size

29:44

of the fall. So silver definitely was a

29:47

much more volatile asset and generally

29:49

recovered uh not always because there

29:52

were um like two out of three one out of

29:55

three chances that it would fall but two

29:57

out of three times it recovered and

29:59

recovered very very strongly.

30:06

So the pattern is clear.

30:08

The longer you hold on after a silver

30:12

crash or for that matter a gold crash or

30:14

for that matter a stock market crash,

30:17

the higher the probability of a positive

30:19

return. And the longer you hold on, the

30:23

more powerful that return is likely to

30:26

be. Let's put it another way. It's

30:28

always a good move to buy after or not

30:31

always. um it's more likely to be a good

30:34

move to be a buyer after the crash

30:37

because quite often the crash represents

30:39

a situation where the metal has been

30:43

oversold.

30:45

So

30:48

one year later after a crash silver was

30:50

up 64% of the time um with the average

30:54

up move being 38% after the crash.

31:03

So while my analysis of the Dow Jones

31:08

suggested a two chances out of three

31:11

that it would rebound and one out of

31:13

three that it would continue falling.

31:17

When you look at silver it's you can see

31:19

that history strongly favors the bulls.

31:25

Bulls are the ones who go long silver

31:28

buy it.

31:31

Now another question is is there a

31:33

correlation between stock markets and

31:35

precious metals? Does a crash in

31:38

precious metal mean that the stock

31:40

market is going to crash next? Well,

31:43

history I've checked the two compared

31:45

the two history and uh of gold, silver

31:48

and the stock market to see to what

31:51

extent one can forecast the other. And

31:54

the answer is a fall or a crash in gold

31:57

and silver does not necessarily foretell

32:01

a fall in the stock market.

32:04

There is a weak correlation, very weak.

32:07

On days when gold crashed 5% or more,

32:12

the Dow Jones fell

32:16

on 60% of those days, but it rose on 40%

32:19

of those days. So not much difference.

32:22

it was more very close to 50/50 and and

32:25

for silver even less correlation. Um it

32:28

rose it fell 57% of the time and rose

32:31

43% of the time. So almost 50/50 as

32:34

well. So we c I couldn't detect much

32:38

correlation between the way stock

32:39

markets behave on days when gold and

32:43

silver are crashing. They tend to go in

32:44

the same direction but only it's only a

32:47

slight tendency to move together and and

32:49

in the same direction.

32:52

So a stock a precious metals crash is

32:54

not a reliable indicator of a stock

32:57

market collapse.

33:00

However, yesterday, January the 30th,

33:03

Friday, gold, silver, and the Dow all

33:05

fell in unison,

33:08

pointing to a broader riskoff day where

33:13

investors kind of sold everything which

33:15

wasn't nailed down. So what's the future

33:18

for the precious metals? Well, if we

33:20

look at the analysts, they're pretty

33:22

divided. Um, you know, the bull case and

33:26

most of the fundamental reasons for

33:27

owning precious metals haven't

33:29

disappeared.

33:32

Geopolitical uncertainty remains high.

33:37

Many countries are looking to diversify

33:40

their reserves away from the US dollar.

33:43

Before the crash,

33:46

major banks were calling for gold to hit

33:50

$6,000. Deutsche Bank, Sockgen, for

33:52

example,

33:54

uh they were talking about 6,000 in

33:55

2026. Um and on silver, they they were

34:00

forecasting higher prices, too. Um City

34:02

Bank, for example, were forecasting that

34:04

silver would get to $150.

34:08

So,

34:10

I haven't yet seen what they've got to

34:12

say about it, but I've seen a number of

34:14

comments and I think the general comment

34:17

is the correction we saw on Friday and

34:20

we're calling a correction um was an

34:23

understandable correction after such a

34:26

long bull market and all bull markets

34:30

climb walls of worry and corrections are

34:33

part of the the makeup of every bull

34:37

market. So, will this bull bull market

34:39

continue? And is this just a correction

34:41

on the way or is it telling us that it's

34:43

all finished and it's never going to get

34:45

back to those levels again?

34:49

I'll let you answer the question.

34:53

I think a lot depends on how everybody

34:56

else sees Kevin Walsh's appointment to

34:59

the Fed over this weekend. Um, I think

35:02

the markets will be the the analyst and

35:04

the newspapers will be digging much

35:05

deeper into uh his views and not

35:11

focusing quite as much on what he said

35:13

and did in 2011, but rather on his more

35:16

recent speeches or talks and the things

35:19

he said and done. Um, I can't go into

35:21

the details of all that, but it's public

35:23

knowledge, but my personal opinion is

35:26

that he's going to be uh towing the line

35:29

of what President Trump wants and voting

35:32

for lower interest rates.

35:34

But what is for sure

35:37

is that over the coming weeks,

35:41

we're going to get a lot of volatility

35:44

before the market actually finds its new

35:46

level, higher or lower.

35:50

But if history is a guide,

35:53

the odds are in favor of a recovery,

36:00

especially for the more volatile silver.

36:04

Now, before I just finish this off, I'm

36:06

going to just uh and I have one more

36:08

thing to show you before we finish. Um

36:11

please do like and subscribe if you like

36:14

this sort of video. Um I will be

36:16

covering um major events in the markets

36:18

in the future. Uh but just to show you

36:21

one last thing or one or two last things

36:24

here which I think are quite

36:26

interesting. Um this is the um calcul

36:30

this is the result of the calculations I

36:33

did. What we were looking at here were

36:35

the impact of 5% falls, 10% falls, 15%

36:39

falls, 20% falls uh over

36:43

7 days, 30 days, 91 days, 182 days, and

36:46

365 days. The most interesting one was

36:50

this one down uh this one here. 5% moves

36:53

over 365 days because I've got a lot of

36:55

data points. Um, and I'll blow that bit

36:59

up. That that there we are. I see that

37:01

there were 84

37:05

uh down moves. This is the looking at

37:07

the Dow Jones since the 1800s. Um which

37:12

were followed by uh over one year an

37:16

average including down days and up days

37:19

of 22% gains with the best gains being

37:24

138%

37:26

and the worst falls after a 5% fall

37:28

being 48% down.

37:31

But we had 62 up moves, 22 down moves.

37:34

So very much in favor of up moves. And

37:36

the average up move was 38%. But where

37:39

it went down, the average down move was

37:42

23%.

37:44

That was what I wanted to show you

37:45

there. And here's a little histogram uh

37:48

to show you the up moves of the So the

37:51

down moves are here. Um

37:54

that there was no move of I I actually

37:56

put a minus 100% move in there, which

37:58

didn't happen. um just a mistake on my

38:01

chart but you can see very few down

38:03

moves on the left hand side and then the

38:05

long right hand side starting here are

38:08

the size of the or the number of up

38:11

moves. So we had some up moves after the

38:13

stock market crash of over 100%. These

38:16

are the 100% plus moves there and we had

38:19

plenty of moves greater than 50% and

38:22

even more greater than 20% starting

38:25

here. All these moves were greater than

38:27

20% after a 5% fall in the stock market.

38:31

And this is the 0 to 10% moves. So up

38:35

moves on the stock market after a crash

38:38

of 5% or more overwhelmingly

38:42

um were many much many more of them than

38:46

down moves. And just to put it a little

38:48

bit another way, uh this is in number

38:51

terms. The green bit here are the good

38:56

day or good days. Good years good year

38:59

for it was 365 day move. The the green

39:03

bits are the size of the good moves

39:05

after a stock market fall of 5% and the

39:08

yellow or red sort of light red. Um it's

39:11

more yellow uh are the bad moves. So

39:14

looking down here the frequency almost

39:17

nothing falling after the stock market

39:19

and after the after a fall if you have a

39:22

5% fall not many days were or years were

39:26

negative after that but on the other

39:28

hand if we had an up move sorry we had a

39:31

5% fall almost all of the moves more

39:34

than half were uh I think it's 66%

39:37

something like that were up strongly and

39:40

where where it did go up strongly the

39:42

moves were quite powerful you know you

39:43

can see 30% % 40% 50% 60% uh five there

39:48

were five moves of 70% or uh to 80% one

39:51

move of 80 to 90 and even two moves of

39:54

greater than 130%.

39:57

So that's all I had to show you ladies

40:00

and gentlemen like and subscribe uh if

40:03

you appreciate the effort I put into

40:05

this. It's been a lot of work. I've been

40:07

working all day to bring you this and I

40:10

will keep you posted hopefully on

40:12

Monday. I want to bring you good news

40:14

for those who are bullish on gold and

40:15

silver. Uh but I suspect that if you're

40:18

a buyer, you're going to have to pay

40:20

higher prices and if you're a seller,

40:22

it's not going to bounce high enough for

40:24

you to get your money back. But uh uh

40:27

all I can say is good luck and whatever

40:29

you do, I this is not a time to be going

40:32

down to the gold and silver shops to try

40:34

and buy or sell because they will have

40:36

widened their spreads massively because

40:38

they don't know what's going to happen.

40:40

Just as I don't know, this is not

40:41

investment advice. I really don't know

40:42

what's going to happen. So, the spreads

40:44

will have widened out to much larger bid

40:48

and ask. And that means that you uh if

40:53

you're buying, you'll probably pay much

40:54

higher than the the spot price. If

40:55

you're selling, you get much lower than

40:57

the spot price. Give it time, and those

40:59

spreads will narrow as things settle

41:01

down, but that might take more than a

41:03

few weeks. Um, so if you do insist on

41:06

buying, uh, I would buy very very small

41:09

quantities to see how you feel. And if

41:11

you insist on selling, I wouldn't, uh,

41:14

rush and sell it all. Just I'd sell a

41:16

little bit to see how you feel cuz both

41:18

buyers and sellers might end up being

41:20

disappointed by anything they do. I'm

41:23

personally sitting on my hands. I never

41:25

had any plan to sell anyway. Um, and

41:27

just because it's gone down doesn't

41:28

change my mind. So, I'm sitting on my

41:30

hands and I hope that most of you will

41:32

be able to sit on your hands until

41:34

things settle down. My name is Clive

41:37

Thompson. Thanks very much for tuning in

41:39

and thank you very much for all the

41:40

lovely comments on my recent videos.

41:42

They were really appreciated and some of

41:45

them actually moved my heart. You guys

41:47

are wonderful. Bye-bye now.

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