buy

Bank of America is now warning that cash

levels have fallen to such a low point

that out of every single time in the

last 20 times this has occurred. On

every single occasion, stocks fell and

treasury bonds outperformed in the

following one to three months. Cash

levels are now at just 3.7%

in the fund manager survey and Bank of

America is citing this is a warning

sign. Now JP Morgan has this massive

report on the outlook for 2026 which

we're going to break down as well so we

can see where the minds of investors are

today because we've got this crazy

duality going on. Stocks are red and

they're trying to recover. We've got

people worried about recession on one

side, others seeing it as a buying

opportunity. I'll tell you this morning,

I have to say I bought some of the dip.

The Q's had a glorious dip and AMD lost

that 232 line as our strategy this

morning. I actually bought a short-term

call option as well as buying the dip.

But in the alpha report this morning, we

bought some longer plays and a

short-term call option in some of the

mess we saw over here on the cues. We're

now regaining bouncing off 595. And

we're also seeing a reduction in the VIX

down from 10% down to just 5%. And in

addition to that, a critical line to pay

attention to for bullishness right here

on AMD. you want to see AMD above 232 to

reiterate short-term enthusiasm.

Anyway, if you want all of those uh

alerts and insights and perspectives,

make sure you join the alpha report over

at meetke.com. So, let's look at some of

these reports that we're getting. So,

Bank of America is telling us, hey, fund

manager cash is so low. Is this bearish?

Well, yes, it is short-term bearish, but

it could create some short-term

opportunities. See, what you really need

is investor sentiment to kind of cool

off of this 9-month high that we've been

on. We've had now four days in a row of

red. We might end up going green towards

the end of the day today. We'll see.

We've got a nice bounce here at 595,

which is bullish. Uh you can join in on

that over at mecaven.com. You pay once,

you get lifetime access for it. So, we

think it's a great bargain. But anyway,

take a look at this. The fund manager

survey investor sentiment shows us at

9month highs. Usually when we come off

of these highs, we're able to create dip

by opportunities. Dip buy opportunities,

assuming we're not falling into a

recession. And obviously the biggest

factor that would elevate us into

recessionary concerns would be jobs. But

that ADP report this morning of -2500 uh

jobs on the 4-week moving average,

that's pretty close to zero, which is

probably where our break even employment

rate is right now. which is to say that

yes, immigration has really slowed down

the drivers of employment, but even

factoring in the joblessness that you

got announced from Target or Amazon or

some of the other layoffs we saw at the

end of October, we're not really that

far from zero. We're not falling off a

cliff, which is good. Which means maybe

this shortterm 4-day dip by dip we're

getting here is a dip by opportunity.

Maybe f people are finally going to

build up some cash again. This is a

great opportunity for people who have

already been building cash and staying

out of margin. Sentiment is pretty

elevated, at least according to the fund

manager survey. And this fund manager

survey was released today, so it's still

timely. You could see that here November

18th. Now, in terms of positioning

though, this is probably where you still

because I did also have a sell order

that I posted this morning is I'm

selling in one place and I'm

reallocating. Uh, and I'm still selling

a bit more on net than I'm buying mostly

because where I'm selling I've I've, you

know, that stock has returned over

probably 12x or actually I think it's

closer to 16x uh since I bought it in

22. But anyway, look at this. This is

positioning right now. investors are

bullish goldilocks with 53% of people

expecting a soft landing and 37

expecting no landing. Only 6% are

expecting a hard landing. So you don't

actually have a lot of investors in this

market pricing in a recession. I

actually don't think markets are pricing

in recession at all. What you're really

getting right now is a bit of a breather

of of sort of a a cash raise. That's

what you're seeing right here over the

last four or five days. Actually, I

mean, really, you've seen this all of

November, this slow bleed down. We've

had some more days in a row of red over

here, but you've seen this bleed down as

a way of raising cash, and some of that

is kind of normal. We see that cycle in

the market, but we're not by any means

seeing recessionary pricing in risk

assets at all. And it makes sense

because people are still bullish, soft

landing or no landing. Great. I'm still

50/50 on whether we're slow bleeding or

soft landing. But anyway, for the first

time in 20 years, investors are now

saying that there's a risk that

companies are overinvesting.

And the biggest concerns for market

investors right now, 45% say AI bubble

with the number one risk at 59%

being some form of private credit event.

This is beca, you know, following the

Black Rockck write down on their

renovation roll up, Renovo Homes, the

hotels like Sa Homes going bankrupt, way

upside down on their debts, the Ritz

Carlton developer going bankrupt after

getting rugpulled by their private

credit lender, thericolor bankruptcies,

the first brand's bankruptcies, the

failures of finance receivables auditing

at at PWC. Like, what the hell? Why

aren't the auditors catching this? the

reminiscence of what we're seeing with

oh everything's triple rated A+ we're

good here right but we're not actually

seeing the big four rating firms doing

most of the AAA rating right now most of

the ratings are actually in private

credit coming from or coming from

smaller firms who are maybe uh fudging

some of the ratings a little bit you

know it's why one of the reasons with

our um real estate startup we use the

highest standards for auditing PCAOB's

Like first brands didn't use that.

Tricolor didn't use that. X doesn't even

use that. Elon Musk's X doesn't even use

a PCAOB audit because you can kind of

get away with a little bit more. You

know, PCA level PCAOB those those are

those are pretty stringent audits. Uh

but but you know, most people aren't

going to do that because they don't want

that level of transparency and those are

the underlying risks and the market sees

that you know and that's that's all

driving some of the nervousness and

desire to raise cash. I think it's smart

to get out of debt, you know. Do you do

I think you have to run? Not

unnecessarily. But minimizing your

margin exposure, great. Long Mag 7

though being considered a crowded trade.

Now, what does JP Morgan have to say

about that? So JP Morgan actually has a

response about this long mag 7 being too

crowded, you know, argument. And I

actually think they did a good job here.

I will tell you out of this entire

report that we've gone through this 2026

report, they do a horrible job about

talking about the labor market. All they

do, and I feel like they're gaslighting

us. I don't really like JP Morgan. I

will give them credit where credit is

due. I like the Sapphire, but honestly,

I prefer the Venture X card. Uh, and I

think AMX has really lost the lead in

their travel cards. I don't think you

could trust JP Morgan as a bank. If

you're business banking with JP Morgan,

I think there's there's a real

likelihood you could get rugpulled at

the worst time. It doesn't matter to me.

I don't have any bank debt. My business

doesn't have any bank debt. Like, it

doesn't doesn't matter to us. I'm just

saying. I think be careful with with JP

Morgan. I don't trust them. Uh and and I

feel like there's while they do say some

things here that I think are valid, they

gaslight us on jobs. Basically in their

report all they do is they talk about,

"Hey guys, in the industrial revolution,

technology basically created jobs." So,

you know, AI's got to be good for jobs,

too. Yeah. No duh, bro. Yes, in the long

term, AI will create jobs. But I don't

care that AI is going to create jobs in

10 years from now. I'm worried about

what's happening over the next two years

because I don't want to go into an

unemployment recession. And JP Morgan,

you're not even addressing the weakness

in the labor market. In fact, you're

literally saying the opposite. We see

limited evidence that AI has impacted

the labor market yet. That's a red flag.

Mind you, they don't actually go down

that rabbit hole. They do not want to

they don't they do not want any of their

clients selling. And I think that's just

a bias you have to understand with JP

Morgan. They do not want their clients

selling. I mean, they literally go

bullish crypto. In this piece right

here, look at this. We note burgeoning

competition to the dollar from digital

operations such as cryptocurrency with

market cap of 4 trillion now exceeding

the two trillion at the start of 2024.

Investors are looking to crypto as a

potential store of value now with a more

friendly regulatory regime. It honestly,

it sounds like an ad. I I I feel like,

you know, Jamie Diamond's walking

through the office going, "Hey guys, we

can help you with crypto now, too. You

know, we've got bullish tailwinds for a

regulatory regime. Uh, you know what?

Blah blah blah." I mean, you get what

I'm trying to say. Like, it's it's a

very bullish sales pitch and it makes me

a little nervous that it's too bullish,

but primarily because they totally

ignore that jobs are weakening. There's

no question that jobs are weakening. No

question question there at all. The hope

and this is the hopeium. The hope is

that we can rebound, right? Is that we

can see job growth start booming again

and start picking up as we get through

the holidays and into January of next

year. Now, hopes don't always create the

best investment strategies, though.

Consider Home Depot and Six Flags. both

reported that they hoped that Q3 and Q4

would be better. Okay. Uh what ended up

happening? Well, what we ended up

getting was after Labor Day, Six Flags

told us demand trends are slowing and

they ended up telling us that the reason

traffic was down 11% was because of bad

weather. And then Home Depot's like,

"Yeah, you know, we actually had too

much good weather, so therefore people

didn't have to fix up their homes as

much, and that's why our sales are down,

and that's why we're reducing guidance."

I'm like, "Okay, fine. Maybe the weather

was not bad enough to drive sales at

Home Depot and not good enough to drive

sales at Six Flags, but the point is the

consumer suffering, right?" And JP

Morgan's kind of ignoring that whole

labor aspect because a good labor market

drives consumer spending, right?

Uh

so

with that said, let's look at actually

some of the components that I do think

they they provide fair points on. Okay,

so this is now the more bullish part.

Okay, they say that many of their

clients at JP Morgan are holding more

cash than they did before the pandemic.

And so I call this contrarian bullish,

right? Unlike the Bank of America fund

manager survey where where cash levels

are so low, this actually seems

contrarian bullish. This is bearish

right here, which is, you know, we're

capping out on AI model progress,

but they think that agents will take

over. I don't think so. I think we're

probably capping out on like the AI

chatbot encyclopedia progress, and now

it's just a matter of turning that into

revenues. That said, in fairness, I do

think they make some valid points. Right

now, if you compare AI spending today to

the.com bubble, we're only spending

around 1% of GDP right now. It's going

to increase. It's going to increase. In

my opinion, it's already going to like

plan to be closer to 4 to 5% of GDP. I

mean, think about GDP is about what 24

trillion. So 24 trillion times, call it

5%, that's about a trillion, 1.2

trillion a year. We're probably closer

to about 2.5% of GDP actually being

spent right now. You know, half a

trillion dollars a year, right? I mean,

look at Nvidia. They're going to

forecast half a trillion dollars of a

backlog when they report earnings soon,

which is when we're expiring the coupon

code for the meet Kevin Alpha report.

Coupon code is actually NVDA, Nvidia,

right? Their ticker symbol. But anyway,

they say current AI investment is around

uh 1%. They say that investment tends to

peak around 2 to 5% of GDP. Okay. Uh I

probably think we're somewhere around

two and a half right now, but we'll see.

And uh they also say that a lot of the

capex right now is still being driven by

earnings. And they're right like they do

rightly reference that there are bubbles

in history. Tulip mania, Japanese asset

bubbles, subprime mortgage crisis. But

in fairness, I didn't know this. I think

this is a good point. the Oracle, which

I wouldn't touch with a 10- foot pole.

Oracle was 5x overs subscribed for their

bond. That's crazy to me. Yesterday, you

had Amazon talk about a $15 billion uh

new bond subscription. Today, you had an

Azure uh and an anthropic announcement.

Like, these are big investments that are

still going on. And in fairness, they

are being driven by cash flows. They say

that right here. AI spending today is

fueled by cash flows. They are right

about that. Now those cash flows are

going to zero. Like you look at Amazon,

their free cash flow has is almost

indistinguishable indistinguishable from

zero now because they're investing so

much. But this is so much in contrast to

the bubble that you saw in the early era

where companies were going public with

no revenues and you weren't financing

the boom by cash flows, which you are

today. And so they make this really

interesting point. First, they point out

that if you look at the IPO market,

there's no sign of exuberance here. Like

IPOs recently have not been doing that

great. I mean, I was bearish on some of

I mean, a lot of these different IPOs,

but look at Circle for example. Circle

IPO skyrocket meme'd up tanks. Look at

another one here. If you go to Weeble,

dude, look at this bleed out on Weeble.

You know, not great. Some of these

recent IPOs have just been tanking. Not

great. Oo, Q's still recovering. Well,

glad bought the dip this morning. Um,

but, you know, that's potentially a sign

that maybe we're not at that euphoric

part of the Nike swoosh yet. Uh, you

know, Jeffrey Gondlock had a really good

point in an interview yesterday. He

said, you know, uh, he went bearish on

tech in 1999

and then the S&P 500 after he went

bearish rallied like another 80%. and

he's like, "Ah, well that doesn't look

good." Now, obviously ended up being

right to be bearish, but it it there is

a suggestion that maybe there's still a

bubble ahead of us, not behind us. And

that's what JP Morgan is arguing. See,

JP Morgan says here, "The biggest risk

to us is not having exposure." Now, I

have to be careful here. I feel like

this could be a Shamwow style sales

pitch. Okay? Now, don't get me wrong. I

like to pitch as well. We're going to

talk about real estate in just a moment.

And I love pitching my real estate

startup because y'all have invested like

$1.3 million in this company in November

alone. Okay, it's crazy. I mean, we're

offering a 5% yield. You get 100% upside

on the stock. Our valuation is based on

a valuation we did when our expenses

were way higher and we had no AI

product. That's what our valuation is

based off of. August 2024, no AI product

that, you know, we were thinking about

selling. uh and uh and and you know

expenses that were way higher. We cut a

lot of expenses and I feel like we're in

a really great place right now. We're

still offering that 5% yield. You get

100% of the upside. Obviously, you know,

read the offering circular. You can read

about our AI product as well that we're

going to be launching soon which is

really exciting at reinvest.co. Again,

read the disclosures. You can see the

real estate. We got to update this real

estate section with the new like 11

properties we just bought. I can't wait

to do that. But we're in the middle of

remodels on like 11 different fixer

uppers right now. It's crazy. We might

be up at 12 soon. I guess I'll know

later today. But anyway, uh you know, so

like I get it. Like there's a sales

pitch aspect that JP Morgan is doing as

well. Uh and

you kind of have to reconcile that here.

They don't want their clients to sell,

right? They don't want their clients to

sell out. Uh, so you know, like if I was

going to do a Gemini put together uh uh

Shamwow pitch,

Gemini says I should read the following.

Are you tired of market turbulence? Is

globalization leaving your portfolio wet

with risk?

Stop. You need the JP Morgan 2026

outlook. This report instantly soaks up

the three biggest threats. AI. The

massive boom is not a bubble. We tell

you where the trillion dollar value is

hiding. Fragmentation, forget sheep.

We'll show you huge profits in

nearshoring and inflation. Ha, cash

might be leaking value. So, get yourself

some real assets. So, don't let your

portfolio get wiped out. Check out the

JP Morgan 2026 outlook.

Gemini slap together that for me really

quickly. But I I like I I say that

half-heartedly because you have to know

you have to look at these JP Morgan

reports. I mean, look at this. They put

like a beautiful leather binder on this.

It's a sales pitch to some extent. Like,

please don't sell your assets, right?

All right. I get it. They're like the

biggest asset manager in the world. But

it is interesting to me because they

argue that the bubble could actually be

ahead of us. Look at this. When we

consider the evidence, it seems clear

that the ingredients for a market bubble

are present. That said, we think the

risk is that the bubble is in the

future,

not in the past. Kind of interesting.

So, what does JP Morgan recommend? Okay,

so JP Morgan does the following. This is

their strategy, and I've boiled this

down because I don't think they do a

really good job in their piece. So, I've

simplified this. Okay, I've simplified

to this mag 7 super micro computer and

infrastructure that's undervalued

relative to the others that are still

highly valued like avertive but still

they pitch water cooling then mag 7 and

then yolo into GPT or anthropic shares

and data bricks or the private market

that's roughly what they're saying here

now you could pause this and look at

this on screen but here they basically

say that Microsoft Meta Alphabet their

valuation premiums are justified in

fairness I kind of agree

that companies like Meta and even

Netflix, which I think Netflix will

benefit from a boom in advertising to

get these LLMs pitched. I actually think

those are cheap right now. That's just

my opinion, not personalized advice

obviously. But so they say they're

optimistic that these valuations are

justified. They're bullish on on these

various different plays. They also think

when I go to number three here, they

think that Google basically can compound

AI integrations a lot better than a lot

of other companies can because they're

so vertically integrated. Uh they're

kind of like that one-stop shop. Uh and

so when we looked at this the first

time, I made this analogy about how if I

go into my Google Drive, I could click

on our house hack offering circular and

I can click AI voiceover and they will

do a podcast to explain a PDF to me as a

podcast. It was crazy like I gave this

analogy because it we were looking at

this in office. We're like this is

really good. They have like this man and

a woman debating our offering circular.

Oh yeah. They they expect to make money

from these different verticals. One of

them for example buying what they call

wedge deals which which are undermarket

deals. And then they have like the lady

interject wedge deals. Yeah. Because

they think there's a wedge in the market

value of the properties they're buying.

And I'm like this is crazy, right? Like

so I get it. you know, they also say,

you know, so that's why they like the

Mag 7 still, even though there's a lot

of concentration risk there. Uh, but

they also think that there are

opportunities in other companies like

the AI enablers. I think some of the AI

enablers, you know, obviously the

Nvidia, the super micros, the vertips,

the mus, the microns, the MP materials

or whatever. Some of these are still

very highly valued. I think MP is a

little bit of a bubble. I think it can

have a short-term bounce, but I still

think it's going to trend to $31. So, I

I don't want to go long on MP material.

Uh I but I do think like a super micro

is probably less risky than betting on

the consumer right now, whether it's

Fun, Dave and Busters, Chipotle, Home

Depot, Target. You know, it's tempting

because they're getting cheap, but maybe

they're cheap for a reason, right?

Uh and then of course they talk about

private the private markets which you

want to always be careful with the

private markets because of the risk that

you know companies are really high in

debt which obviously is personally I'm

I'm obviously biased here why I like I'm

throwing more money at my own real

estate startup because I I'm like okay I

don't have the risk of debt at this

company. There's the company owns no

bank debt. Like it's massively uh uh

protected I feel like with with so much

real estate and cash in the bank. Uh so

I really like that. Plus, obviously, you

know, we're going to be releasing our AI

product, which some of you were happy in

the chat. I was talking about this.

We're going to release our super early

beta for the wedgeinder. We're going to

call it the reinvest AI, which will help

score kind of real estate for people to

prioritize when they go look to buy. And

because we think people will buy real

estate, you know, over the next 3 to 5

years, I kind of want to sell like right

now as we start the product a membership

that gives you access for like 3 to four

years at a really cheap base like basis

on a monthly basis. uh mostly because

that'll give us cash to really double

down on investing in the AI to make it

even better because we want to you know

not just value single families but then

value renovations how you could boost

your net worth do the valuation work for

you we're really excited about what we

could do with our AI but but anyway a

little tangential there so this is JP

Morgan's take here you know they still

believe throwing money at open AI SpaceX

anthropic data barracks or what like

these these private startups I get at uh

yeah I have a venture capital company

and we invested into uh this company

called Appronic and uh Apptronic's a

humanoid robot uh developer and I

visited them in I think it was 2023 and

I made an investment into them and then

my VC made an investment into them and

now Google backed upon and talks to

raise funding at $5 billion valuation.

If they pull off that $5 billion

valuation, I think I'm like 20x on my

first investment and like, you know,

probably three or 4x, depends what the

valuation and dilution ends up being on

the VC investment. It's pretty crazy.

But, uh, yeah, I mean, I get why JP

Morgan is talking about these private

opportunities because private companies,

you know, they can multiplex really

fast. Like, somebody left me a comment

yesterday. They're like, Kevin, all

these AI plays like Nvidia, they're

going to 5x in the next 5 years. And I'm

like, you think Nvidia is going to go

from a $5 trillion market cap to a $25

trillion market cap? Uh, that's crazy

because that's literally 100% of GDP.

Wow. I mean, I get you're bullish, but

wow. Like, I'm bullish to the sense that

like I'll I'll buy the dip on an

opportunity, right? Like I sent alerts

this morning. I'm like, "Hey guys, I'm

buying the dip on this. I'm buying some

of, you know, my 10-year play. Uh I'm

selling some that's not part of my

10-year play and, you know, I'm buying a

call option. Uh right, like that's in

our alpha report this morning. So, I get

it. But am I am I of this mindset of

like, oh gosh, all in 100% margin? No,

no,

>> no.

>> [laughter]

>> You know, if you look at, and this is

the sentiment right now you want to be

careful of. Look at this dude. I had a

guy I saw on Twitter yesterday on Axe.

He literally posted this uh he posts

deployed margin. F it. I'm either

working at McDonald's next year or I'll

be filthy rich. And apparently the guy

deployed margin on Robin Hood. And and

I'm like, we just hit the f it deployed

margin stage of the cycle. And I'm like,

dude, look at this. Like Robin Hood's

down 22% from peak, but it's had this

crazy run and the guy's yeing in on

margin at this point. Like great. Maybe

it'll work out today. I don't know. May

maybe hood's green today. It's not. It's

flat. Flat's better than than red. I

guess that's fine. Maybe it'll work out

day over day. But dude, you know, to to

yolo into margin when this is what the

week chart looks like. I don't know,

man.

uh you know it's it's not the kind of

risk aversion I like you know I like

being a little bit more careful. So

anyway something else that is wild about

JP Morgan is then of course they talk

about infrastructure they talk about uh

investing in oil and natural gas. Uh

they really like natural gas plays and

they think that uh natural gas plays are

really under allocated to right now.

They like crypto, but there's actually

something else. They talk about hedging

against inflation. Now, this is not a

surprise. You know, goods inflation

likely experienced some upward pressure

from tariffs. Services inflation seems

much more benign. Okay, they took that

right from the Federal Reserve's

playbook, right? But something else.

Look at this. I got really excited about

this. Now, I could be biased. Okay, your

house hack CEO here, reinvest. Okay,

maybe a little biased, but the US

housing market shortage. Let me just

read you their words. We estimate that

since the global financial crisis, the

United States has underbuilt houses by 3

to 4 million units relative to household

formation. Based on current trends, it

could take 10 years to close the gap.

But by the end of the decade, so in 5

years, over 6 million new people will

enter the 35 to 49 age group, which is

the prime age for home buying. Given the

extreme gap between the cost to rent and

the cost to buy, we expect demand for

rental housing to increase, especially

in newer homes suitable for families

within commuting distances for city

centers.

>> Bullish cataly bullish catalyst.

>> I like that. It's why I am investing and

plowing money into real estate.

>> I think that Kevin's a brilliant guy and

I think that we'd we'd we'd all be very

lucky to have him. Kevin's somebody

would consider you. Kevin is fantastic,

too.

>> Kevin is very talented, but I don't know

it's going to be him, but he's a very

talented guy.

>> But it's not just because of this rental

demand. It's also because they think

that real estate is a really good

inflation hedge. It's actually what I've

always loved about real estate is I see

real estate as an inflation hedge. I

don't care about currencies. I care

about the fact that so many people don't

want to deal with tenants and toilets,

but I do. I love toilets. I love rats. I

love dealing with mold. Maybe because

I'm insane. Fine. But somebody's got to

do it. Somebody's got to have the balls

to do it. The cool thing is if you

invest in house hack, I'll do it for

you. But anyway, so they say that to

identify to protect against longerterm

inflation, you can invest in

commodities. Specifically, they like

natural gas. Then they say real assets

such as infrastructure uh and real

estate. Okay, fine. Uh, so I like real

assets like house hack, but okay, I'm

biased again. But anyway, they say we

expect an acceleration in demand for

power driven by electrification. We

think people are underallocated to

natural gas specifically. They say they

think that real estate serves as a great

inflation hedge through rent escalators

and frequent lease resets and property

values rise with land labor costs and

material costs, which is good. They also

think that the multifamily

slump is bottoming out in those

overbuilt markets like Texas and Florida

and even the commercial sector they

think is bottoming out. So they think

this is a good trend for reshaping real

estate for years to come. Okay. And then

they look for, you know, basically stock

picking and how they think hedge funds

will do well and their bearish bonds.

Okay. Honestly, that was a really pretty

interesting JP Morgan piece. And I think

they totally are monkey see no evil on

recession

that like that's what JP Morgan is on

recession, right? Like they do not talk

at all about the jobs risk. But outside

of the labor market risk, I think it's

actually kind of interesting. You know,

I had somebody leave me a reasonable

comment the other day. They said, Kevin,

if we do have a labor market risk,

doesn't that create problems potentially

for rental housing? And the answer to

that that I used is based on what we saw

in 2008. We actually saw rental demand

increase during the great recession

after layoffs and specifically you see

it amongst higher credit households. So

we have very stringent credit score

standards to rent from us. So we really

vet our clients our our customers we

call them uh really well our tenants.

And we find that when people do lose

their jobs and they rent from us, they

move and they leave the property in

often better condition than we rented it

to them in and we just rent it to

somebody else. Uh or they have enough

cash reserves to go find another job. We

also find that rental demand usually

goes up in recessions, not down. More

people are renting because they're not

buying homes because they can't qualify

for a home even when rates are going

down. So we generally feel relatively

insulated when it comes to uh recessions

especially if you don't have callable

kind of bank debt right. Uh now of

course investor positioning you know who

is this? This was City Bank. City Bank

says that uh investor positioning is a

little mixed right now with some of the

bullishness on NASDAQ uh declining over

the last few days. I know we've seen

that. I think some of it's a little

overblown. It's why I think that 595

level has been a nice shelf for us which

is good. you know, we called that out in

the alpha report this morning. Did slip

a little bit below it, but I mean, now

we're riding it really nicely. So, I

think the buy the dip was well timed.

Uh, and um, you know, broadly, if we

don't have a recession, I think JP

Morgan, I hate to give them credit, but

I think they're probably right. The

vertical integration that you're seeing

uh, at some of the mag 7 is a valid

argument. Uh, I also think that the

advertising demand that you're going to

see at companies like Netflix is going

to blow up. And I think they're cheap. I

think actually Meta is a little on the

cheap side as well. And I think Meta and

and to some extent Google are going to

be big beneficiaries of this desire to

advertise AI products and to find new

customers. And I don't think you're

actually really seeing that priced into

markets right now. I'd like to say that

Tradeesk would be a beneficiary of the

advertising boom. I don't know that they

will be. I almost think that Pinterest

could be a better beneficiary, but

you're also heavily relying on the

consumer over there. So, so we'll see. a

little riskier place to get into. Uh,

you know, I mean, look at Pinterest.

Look at Pinterest stock. It's insane.

But their AI ads engine is pretty good.

And look at where they're sitting right

now. See this uptrend? This is a weak

chart. We're on this very long-term

uptrend right here that has been going

on for 5 years and we're bouncing off

the low portion of that uptrend. Kind of

tempting. We'll say kind of tempting. So

anyway,

hey, check out the alpha report. I think

JP Morgan's got a point on real estate,

on uh commodities, and the MAG 7. Some

of the private credit trades I think are

overvalued. I think SpaceX is getting

real competition here. I'm not the

biggest fan of what I'm seeing with

SpaceX uh uh you know, positioning.

But I'm also invested in SpaceX. I'm

just like, does it make sense to invest

more at this point? I don't know. I feel

like we're a little on the frothy side,

but hey, I know there's a lot of

enthusiasm around uh Elon Musk. Uh and

broadly, I think, you know, while it's a

relatively slow news day, everybody's

kind of twiddling their thumb to see if

we're going to end up getting uh uh you

know, a flip over here on on the shock

level of the 102 curve. Wow. We actually

saw live uh Donald Trump get uh get

asked by the ABC reporter over the

Epstein files. And apparently now Trump

is calling to revoke ABC's license for

asking an unflattering question.

Classic. [laughter]

Oh my goodness gracious. Anyway, uh

that's uh that's my take on what's going

on out there.

>> Why not advertise these [music] things

that you told us here? I feel like

nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take. [music]