wtf happened today

hey everyone me Kevin here what happened

today we had a red day in the stock

market and we get to talk about a lot of

the things that are developing including

what's happening in Shanghai a little

bit of an update on Ukraine we gotta

look at some data and charts really

important we're gonna look at that short

interest as well now this video is

brought to you by public go to

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up to a thousand dollars but folks now

listen to this this is only the second

red day for the S P 500 since March 14th

when I said bye like there's so little

buying pressure like now is the time to

freaking buy I did the most buys on

February 24th and March 14th super low

buying pressure great times to buy but

hey can't time the market I guess right

anyway this is also the only fourth day

that the NASDAQ has been read and then

read by any means since March 14th so in

other words like the last two weeks have

been really amazing four red days on the

NASDAQ two red days on the S P 500

that's nothing and if you go all the way

back to February 24th which was another

bottom for the NASDAQ you'll find that

we've been green 68 of the time on the S

P 500 that's almost 7 out of every 10

days green on the S P 500 NASDAQ since

February 24th it's been a little bit

more 50 50 at about 56 green but it's

clear here we're on a trend up we're on

a green Trend but why did we have this

red today I mean yeah that makes us feel

a little bit better because when we put

up the average candlesticks like we're

clearly blowing up uh from March 14th we

go to the normal candlesticks this is

where we can actually count our couple

red days over here or red day since the

24th we go over the NASDAQ we could see

the same thing got a few more red days

over here though a couple small red days

that barely did anything like a quarter

percent down or 0.08 down but I counted

those you know the point is we've been

doing very good I mean this has been one

heck of a rally here so is this just a

normal give back day or what are people

looking at in the market well the first

thing that people are looking at in the

market right now that's creating a

little bit of an anxiety and we'll talk

about future things as well it's really

Shanghai but in my opinion the Shanghai

lockdown is actually not as terrible as

it seems the reason for that is they're

locking down Shanghai in a very

different way now so they're locking

down neighborhoods rather than just the

entire city in fact and what they're

doing right now is what's called a

two-phased lockdown phase one will be

they'll lock down the Eastern side and

then phase two they'll lock down the

western side so the Eastern side will be

locked down from Monday to Friday and

then the western side from Friday

through April 5th what's interesting

about this is not only does that mean

you're not locked down for that total of

two weeks you're just locked down for

five days but it also means the ports

are actually remaining active because

they're not falling under the purview of

those sides so the ports have been

active for 24 hours now we have gotten

pauses at factories like for example

Tesla we know had to shut down for at

least Monday of this week and you know

so far we're only on Wednesday speaking

of which by the way I will be going to

the Tesla cyber rodeo and I'm gonna have

have an announcement coming up about

well I'm just going to give you a little

preview okay I'm going to also be going

to Tesla con Texas not like if you go to

teslacon texas.com it's an event that's

happening the day after the Cyber rodeo

in Austin I'll be there Sandy Monroe uh

Dave Lee Galley and so on so if you're

interested in Tesla stuff go to

teslacontexas.com but more on them in in

a future video I've got a Tesla uh

analysis coming up so I'll have more

details in that video so stay tuned for

that but they've only had their Factory

down one day here and what's kind of

interesting about this strategy is if

you shut down some of the factories in

in a weird way you're actually giving

the ports an opportunity to go

oh no more boxes coming let's get this

stuff out you know in a weird way like

everybody's worried about some live

freaking chains but in a weird way

you're giving the ports a little bit of

a break because the ports are still

going 24 7. so they can catch up a

little bit without constantly getting

all these new shipments hopefully

reducing Port congestion a little bit

now why are these lockdowns happening

obviously kovid 3450 covet cases it's

the most in any province in Shanghai of

course last year remember uh and this is

I think why you start seeing some some

red in the markets there are concerns

that we might see a repeat of the

anti-import getting shut down again

which is in Shenzhen China the third

largest city Shanghai is the first

largest uh shipping port and this uh

Shenzhen here is the third largest

shipping port in that City and uh one of

the things about last year that was so

devastating was remember the Suez Canal

and and how that ship got stuck there

and everybody's like oh I Supply chains

uh yeah well when we lock down Shenzhen

the supply chain disruptions were twice

as bad as the Suez that means twice as

many vessels were delayed with the

Shenzhen Port shut down compared to the

Suez Canal blockage so it makes sense

why there's some nervousness going on

right but again ironic because the ports

are up which is good at least right now

hopefully it stays that way and maybe

that'll allow some catching up okay

because the factories or some of them

are shutting down anyway then we've got

some fears lingering about Ukraine we

have a lot of euphoria almost yesterday

about oh my gosh in-person peace talks

this is it this is that de-escalation

we've been waiting for but as expected

those peace talks didn't do much if

anything they've kind of re- allowed uh

Putin to sort of regroup polish troops

back from Kiev as he said he would but

now he's kind of regrouping them in the

Eastern regions like the donbos and we

know that one of Putin's demands is to

essentially carve out the Eastern

regions and the donbos and he just

doesn't want Ukraine to be part of NATO

but maybe would even consider allowing

them into the EU who knows the point is

we didn't get an end to this War

yesterday during these peace talks now

we didn't really expect that personally

my expectation is that this war will be

over by the end of May Ukraine expects

it'll be over by the beginning of May

we'll see but at the same time as you

have these talks that didn't turn out as

positive as hoped although still a great

sign you have Germany now bracing for

the potential that natural gas is just

going to get cut off completely because

Putin is demanding that any natural gas

Germany buys be paid for in Rubles which

in order for you to pay for natural gas

and rubles it's not just like okay let

me just like transfer the wallet in in

BTC to eth or whatever I mean I guess in

some degree it's like that but you

actually have to buy the rubles so this

means it's like okay here are Euros give

us rubles and now you have currency risk

because now you're hurting and

depreciating as or you're holding an

asset it's like falling in Valley it's

like a freaking hot potato and it's like

okay give me the natural gas you know if

it takes a few days that natural gas

could end up being 20 cheaper if the

currency felt 20 in those days now it

has been as volatile but it's certainly

a risk it's something that's being

considered so uh this this is something

that's frustrating European countries

it's another sort of negative thing

that's going on the markets I don't see

it as like that big of a deal I think

it's all solvable but now there are

rumors that Putin's gonna say well by

the way you want Russian wheat ruples

you want corn uh you want neon apples

uh I mean quite frankly you can't blame

them it's

kind of makes sense but anyway so this

is some of the drama that's going on the

market regarding data we did have some

actually in my opinion not terrible data

uh but we did get a slow down a little

bit in personal consumption from Q4

estimates and this is what I'm saying

like it's still good it's not terrible

we were expecting 3.1 growth in people

spending came in at about 2.5 percent so

slower this is from Q4 by the way so

it's kind of like an older piece of data

but Q4 okay came in a little weaker than

expected GDP annualized came in at 6.9

percent we were expecting seven percent

a little weaker than expected but

honestly not terrible now we'll see what

happens q1 GDP that comes out in April

uh actually come out past April will

take a little bit for them to put this

together but that's more of a concern is

like are we in a recession right now

right that that sort of look back uh

private payrolls came in robust a strong

in a weird thing though in a weird weird

way here though good news in payrolls is

kind of seen as somewhat bad news so ADP

reports come out two days before the

actual jobs report the actual jobs

report comes out Friday and the actual

jobs report if it comes in strong like

the ADP report came in it'd be beat by

about 5 455k versus 450. if that comes

in strong on Friday like the actual

government report uh the unemployment

report and the unemployment report does

show that unemployment fell another 0.1

percent to 3.7 then that's gonna instead

of being good news and be seen as a

Rally Point going to be looked at as

like a a great more fuel for the FED to

give us that 50 BP hike so kind of got a

little bit of that you know good news is

bad news thing going on especially this

overhang of like oh no like what are

earnings is going to be like in Q4 how

are companies going to guide and I'll

tell you I mean so far Nike and Lulu

they reported really late in the in this

quarter and they're giving really good

guidance like I'm impressed they're

giving way better guidance than they

thought they would give for uh for for

this upcoming quarter here q1 which is

the earnings that we're going to get

next month uh in the month thereafter so

well cautiously optimistic but still a

little worried that consumers are going

to be out rotating down or sort of

turning that dial back on on spending

right so we'll get some other reports

but some important charts to look at

we'll look at these together right here

or the following because they give us a

really good picture of some of the other

drama that's going on in the markets so

first of all we got the 10-2 technically

the yield curve at least according to

the chart that I've been looking at for

10 2 did not invert where to spread on

the 10-2 here of just 3.6 basis points

which is really really low and if I zoom

into a three-day version of this this is

yesterday here where there was talk

about an inversion we got really close

to that line there but we didn't

technically invert yesterday which is

good and if anything were kind of

spreading away from that but not by much

I mean 3.6 basis points we're really

close to inverting on that yield curve

right and then of course over here this

is actually another piece of good news

so like let me just give a quick recap

here so far a lot of these things

they're not terrible news like it's more

I would say more good news than bad news

with Ukraine I'd say more good news than

bad news with jobs even though it could

be interpreted bad more good news than

bad news with like the Lululemon report

for example on consumers right that's

good uh and and uh on on the inversion

not happening that's good yet could

still happen obviously right but I'm

seeing more good news here than bad news

it's not like horrible news that is

going to come through and all of a

sudden tank our NASDAQ under that triple

bounce that we had and here's another

example of that so this is our inflation

expectations chart The Five-Year Break

Even we've been seeing this Skyrocket

here but look at this we have a nice

little drop in that market expectation

of inflation and this is really good

like in my opinion for us to really see

uh another like a quad bounce we would

call it on the QQQ where we actually

retrace all the way back down to zero

percent over here which would be NASDAQ

you know somewhere around 320 it'd be

losing about you know 50 points that's a

huge move it'd be giving up 15 again ish

12 15 somewhere around there that's huge

for the NASDAQ right because that means

you know Tesla's probably down 25 right

for us to really do that you know when

you look at the data it's like well I

mean it's not great but it's also not

horrible like yeah okay lock down in

Shanghai but then you look at the

details it's like okay well that's not

that bad like the news we're getting is

not that bad and so to me it's actually

consistent with us being at about a 50

to 60 retracement now it would be stupid

absolutely stupid if we ran all the way

back to all-time highs like that would

be dumb there's still too much bad news

for that but the bad news is not really

getting worse right now if that makes

sense so I think that's something to pay

attention to and in an interesting way

you've got the 10-year treasury yield

here taking a little bit of a breather

right now at uh 2.34 this is good for

mortgage rates remember real estate and

this is also interesting for the stock

market but if mortgage rates go up and

then real estate potentially goes down

if real estate goes down then spend

could potentially goes down as that net

worth feeling the feeling of how rich

you are goes away people spend less

money right but it could also lead

people to go more into the stock market

because hey if real estate's starting to

have potential issues more people might

throw their money and buy the dip in the

stock market because we do still have a

dip in a lot of sectors right uh and uh

the problem though is where people are

putting their money is is mostly at

least based on flows that we're seeing

the big boys the institutions are seeing

this sort of move to NASDAQ and sort of

Mega cap style stocks more so than

Smalls and mids so Smalls and mids while

they get these occasional like momentum

surges for one to three days it's the

big caps that just keep getting bigger

and bigger and bigger because it's

almost like they're seen as a little bit

of a safety tool like the most popular

big caps right now at least for retail

and Retail has kind of been leading the

charge buying the dip in this here

retail's been focused on Apple Tesla

Facebook Nvidia and AMD now institutions

are still somewhat bearish here we're

going to talk about shorting in just a

moment but retail is not I mean we have

1.2 billion dollars of retail inflows a

day that's as much as we had per day in

March of 2021 that's crazy because

people were way more active in stocks

last year than they are today but we're

still seeing a similar amount of money

flowing in right now from retail so this

is really good now uh another thing for

us to really pay attention to are

potential bearish signals in the

Bollinger Bands and I'm going to show

you exactly what I mean with those but

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gotta talk Bollinger Bands and shorts

first let me just hit shorts really

quickly people are still pretty bearish

I mean take a look at this okay I'm

gonna hide myself for a second here look

at this okay this is Arc in March and we

are at the highest point in shorts for

Arc K right now you look at Sofi we're

still pretty elevated we're at a higher

level of shorts in the last 10 days than

where we were at the beginning of the

month uh palantir somewhat less but

still elevated about 7.28 tattooed Chef

still over 30 percent AMC look at that

after the AMC and gme runs here you've

actually seen seen Short interest jump

roughly about five percent each Lucid

still sitting around 19 short and then

you go to the big boys look at that spy

17.7 short pretty stable throughout the

month here and 13.5 short on the NASDAQ

actually less short on the NASDAQ than

we are on the Spy which is pretty

incredible but still these are these are

indicators here that markets are still

somewhat pricing and protection here

because they're nervous now our

Bollinger Bands which uh I always like

to use the trading view platform for

show us that we are hitting these

potential overbought areas here on for

example Tesla you could see us hitting

the red Bollinger region over here but

this could be a little bit of a tough

one to declare as a potential sell

signal here because you have this new

piece of data about this stock dividend

essentially the stock split right yeah

no sell signals here on end phase still

not in that overbought a Bollinger band

Bitcoin not in the overbought yet QQQ

not in the overbought yet not in the

overbought yet on this on the Spy I know

it feels like we've been nothing but

straight up but I mean we're we're still

mid-range here on the indices on spy and

NASDAQ uh personally I think we've got

room to run here uh you know if anything

Tesla again not the best indicator

because of that split if anything end

phase or BTC you're getting a little bit

closer to touching these uh these

overbought bands over here but beyond

that I'll tell you the indices aren't

showing a super bearish indicators like

no sell signals I see here yet despite

the fact that they're just being shorted

so I think on days like today it's just

people loading up on downside protection

again maybe institutions who knows some

other news by the way that came out is

that uh Biden announced that he was

activating the defense production act

for lithium this helps certain lithium

miners rally like LIC and lithium

America's company and SEC well the the

SEC ended up responding to this rumor

that there was a deal going on that

Chinese companies would have have some

sort of deal that would allow them to

stay on U.S stock exchanges without

necessarily having to comply with the

audits that the SEC is requiring and

Gary Gensler came out and said that I

don't know quote I don't know where this

is going to end up it's up to the

Chinese authorities and frankly it could

be a hard set of choices for them so it

kind of threw cold water on the idea

that it's going to be easy for these

Chinese ADR stocks American depository

receipts to uh to to be safe here so

that's your baba your Neo your x-pig now

it doesn't actually seem like the stocks

really care about that I mean here's Neo

yeah we had some red the second half of

the day but quite frankly everything was

jump on over to Baba your uh same thing

that's second and a half a second half

of the day here but again that was

really the entire Market I mean I throw

in QQQ over here second in half of the

day as well so I don't necessarily see

any huge drama here of anything that

tells me that the Market's already

pricing in a lot of risk that these

stocks could end up getting de-listed

over the next couple years so just

something worth noting and this is also

why you've been seeing so much pressure

on what I think are actually good

companies like Neo and Alibaba anyway

check out metcavin.com public link down

below thanks so much for watching we'll

see you next one goodbye