This is BAD

boy oh boy oh boy oh boy you won't

believe the data that came out this

morning and there's a reason Invidia

stocks moving up and it's because people

are starting to realize I don't know man

there small caps the small business is

really the place to be but beyond that

you got to know what's in this report

that just came out this morning I

highlighted so much of it I feel like I

highlighted the whole dang thing but

before we talk about this I got to talk

about AutoZone and what they just said

because it blew my mind it was

mindblowing this report which we'll talk

about after autoone by the way is the

report that I traded this morning I sent

alert to course members right as the

data came out I'm like going short and

we doubled our option that's after our

first profitable trade of the day on

Tesla and then a second profitable trade

that was up almost double both two out

of two today sweet win you want to get

those alerts join the stocks and sight

group my team told me we got to do a

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California time so go check that out if

you want to get lifetime access to those

courses on building your wealth trade

alerts and course member live streams so

in our course member live stream this

morning I'll give you a quick preview

but AutoZone this is crazy AutoZone was

bragging about how they're having

Revenue growth about 10% year-over-year

and we're like huh well that doesn't

seem that bad why is the stock down okay

what is it because of international

expansion rather than domestic expansion

and when we get into the weeds we find

that discretionary spending is plummeted

in the United States do-it-yourself

spending is plummeted in the United

States and the company is so frustrated

that they can't pass on any price

increases that they're essentially

begging for inflation to come back

they're like we're looking forward to

some inflation so we can raise prices

which would then increase revenues and

bring us back to growth in the same vein

while they realize they can't they're

starting to talk about rightsizing

Staffing and that's all I mean we all

know this this is a euphemism for

layoffs that are coming it's a big big

problem and folks it's basically exactly

what the consumer conference board is

warning about but I just to hit the nail

on the head here when AutoZone is

telling you hey we're growing in Brazil

and South America and we're just going

to focus on international stores and

we'll eat the currency headwinds which

are massive Let's uh let's just uh

ignore the US consumer because things

are really bad right now well it's

basically what the September consumer

confidence board report says this is

nasty again I highlighted a lot of this

sorry but listen to this consumer

confidence weakened as consumers worry

about jobs realize anytime we get bad

news about jobs going forward we are in

a low liquidity High volatility

environment what that means is stocks

can move extremely rapidly this morning

we saw the 10-year bond yield you know

bare steepening again up six basis

points thanks to China's stimulus

bazooka but what people forget is in a

recessionary environment or slowdown in

jobs what we actually get is called a

bull steepening the yield curve goes

from positive where it is now 10 20

basis points to positive 50 to positive

90 but that's the beginning of the

recession not now when we're at 50 or 90

we are walking towards that number every

single time we've gone from inverted to

positive 50 to 100 we've been in a

recession we are screaming towards that

and anything any bad data on jobs is

just going to reiterate that the stock

market will move on that I think that's

why in part yes obviously the Chinese

stocks are doing well today uh because

of the stimulus bazooka of yesterday I

don't think that'll actually be enough

to Spur consumers I think consumers will

be like cool I'm going to take profits

now and not continue to trust the

Chinese government but anyway uh what

happens in America is people probably go

towards higher cash flow companies at

first back into the safer like Morgan

Stanley's Mike Wilson says Mega cap like

nvidia's I actually don't think nvidia's

valuation is too horrible so long as

they can hold up their growth which so

far it seems like they can but listen to

this report it's crazy the consumer

confidence board confidence index fell

in September to

987 this is a low by the way consumer

confidence dropped in September to near

the bottom of the narrow range that has

PR prevailed over the last 2 years so

basically the lowest in the last 2 years

September's decline line was the largest

since August of 2021 and all five

components of the index deteriorated

that's how they measure you know where

the spending is happening for consumers

remember folks the consumer makes up 70%

of our economy more some people say 72%

so consumer weakening whether it's

consumer goods or services very very

very bad so September's decline was the

largest since August of 2021 all five

components deteriorated consumer assess

ments of current business conditions

turned negative while their views of the

current labor market situation soften

further consumers were also more

pessimistic about the future labor

market conditions available and less

positive about future business

conditions the drop in confidence was

the steepest for consumers 35 to 54 now

what's fascinating about that that age

was just entering the job market or

barely in the job market during the 2008

recession so when you have 34 to

uh or sorry 35 to 54 year olds who lost

the most confidence because they're

worried about recession they're thinking

back to 2008 and rightfully so that's a

smart thing to do listen to those those

who had the uh uh most confidence were

consumers under 35 basically people who

were in high school middle school or

elementary school during the Great

Recession so they don't have the memory

of the pain they only have the market

opinion of by the dip everything's going

to go up confidence declined it's

September across most income groups with

consumers earning less than 50k

experiencing the largest declines and

the 6-month moving average uh for

consumers of over 100k remaining most

confident but uh obviously also

declining hold on a second let's give

this a little move here I got to turn

the page okay there we go deterioration

across the indices main components

likely reflected consumer concerns about

the labor market and reaction to fewer

hours being available slower payroll

increases fewer job openings even if the

labor market remains quite healthy with

low unemployment fuel layoffs and

elevated wages the proportion of

consumers anticipating recession over

the next 12 months remained low but saw

a slight uptick so let's try to distill

this what you're seeing is consumers who

have lived through a recession are

getting more nervous substantially more

nervous the worries across all of them

yes in part are still to some degree

higher prices because they also survey

in this report that I've read and just

going to bottom line on some of it they

talk yes high prices are still an issue

because even if we have disinflation

prices are still so high until we really

have deflation but what's most

concerning for people is their concerns

over wait a minute what happens if we

lose our job and then we can't get

another one look at the percentage of

people who have been unemployed for more

than half of a year Google this one St

Louis Fred with an R like your buddy

Fred 27 weeks unemployed

the only time that number goes up is in

a recession go look to see what it's

doing now anyway uh these are people who

are worried about not seeing increases

in their pay to try to catch up with

higher prices they're worried about

seeing fewer job openings they're

worried about seeing hours cut at jobs

that they're working or or companies

they're working for maybe they're even

seeing quiet layoffs around them this is

something else to keep in mind companies

like IBM and Amazon and this sort of oh

yeah Force everybody back to work even

Salesforce did it it's just a way of

quietly firing people right because

you're going to lose people through

attrition but no company wants to be the

first company to say oh yeah uh we're

doing layoffs because as soon as you do

guess what happens your stock tanks and

then you're the loser but if everybody

lays off during a recession it's okay

it's just a recession so this is some

really bad data the Richmond fed

Manufacturing Index also came in at like

-24 versus the -12 expected I can't

remember that number exactly but it was

also bad that's why I threw in the trade

that's why I sent an alert to people in

the uh stocks and site group and I

always like to say past performance

doesn't guarantee future results we

always try to do our best uh obviously

if uh uh if if we can do well uh trading

off data like this uh in the morning the

goal is to do it again but again can't

guarantee that you'll make money we

always want to be transparent about that

uh I'm just going to keep every single

day providing value to you I'd love for

you to be part of the course member live

streams you can come any day you can

watch the replays on them on days that

you're interested in seeing what my

opinion is or for all those of you in

the second wave of inflation Camp you

really got to ask yourself are you

reading earnings calls are you seeing

what the Auto Zones are saying are you

seeing what companies are saying say

look we are facing deflation not

inflation ask yourself that we do it in

the course member live streams almost

every single day anyway we'll uh end

that flash sale tonight at 11:59 p.m.

automatically if you have questions

email staff atme kevin.com and for the

uh last of you still remaining here if

you want actual personalized Financial

advice go to stock hack.com it's live

thanks so much we'll see you soon bye