DeSantis vs Trump | One ALWAYS Loses.

Biden Donald Trump to Santas do some

we've got to talk election 2024 and what

they recent Wall Street Journal poll is

suggesting about favorability ratings

for example Donald Trump's favorability

ratings have recently fallen in March

they were as high as 85 percent amongst

Republicans now they're down to about 74

some here are blaming Donald Trump's

fraud criminal case that he lost this is

for the Trump organization not Donald

Trump personally some others are blaming

Donald Trump's poor performance in the

midterm elections now of course the

Trump campaign selectively chooses

candidates and says look this candidate

won because we endorsed them and then

they say other candidates were not

endorsed and lost but the reality is in

the midterm election Donald Trump had

over 500 different endorsements and a

trump candidates won 224 of 241 primary

races and 208 out of 254 general ones

that's pretty good right but I guess it

it doesn't really matter if you're

endorsing somebody in a non-competitive

state for example Donald Trump endorsing

Rand Paul in Kentucky doesn't really

give Rand Paul any Edge that he

potentially didn't already have after

all Rand Paul got 61.8 percent of the

vote in his area it's more so the

competitive areas that really matter and

in Battleground races where it's not as

simple as just getting a rubber stamp

Donald Trump only won about 14

endorsements or rather I should say

Donald Trump endorsed candidates only

won about 14 out of 37 times that's less

than half in fact 14 divided by 37 is

only about a 38 percent success ratio

flumping a coin would have been a better

success ratio now Mitch McConnell was

previously endorsed by Donald Trump but

he thinks haven't been great between

Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell lately

Mitch McConnell recently said our

ability to control a primary outcome was

quite Limited in 2022 because of the

former president so in my view do do the

best you can with the cards you've dealt

hopefully in the next cycle will have

quality candidates everywhere and a

better outcome Donald Trump responded by

suggesting that Mitch McConnell should

be impeached and of course Mitch

McConnell slap back here and suggested

that anybody who suggests you should

suspend the Constitution would probably

have a hard time becoming president

again obviously clearly directly

attacking Donald Trump now in 2018 we

had some research about Donald Trump's

effect on midterms from the legislative

studies quarterly and they suggested

that Trump potentially had a down drag

on some candidates that he endorsed

maybe helping contribute to the loss of

12 House Seats that year possibly

because of his polarizing nature to

motivate Democrats to come out and vote

remember in the 2020 recall election in

California when Larry Elder ran against

Gavin Newsom Larry Elder's photograph of

him standing next to Donald Trump was

circulated and that's all it took to get

Democrats to come out and vote was

painting a candidate as trumpian and all

of a sudden and Democrats came out in

droves now in in competitive elections

we also noticed based on some research

put together by NBC that any candidate

who denied the 2020 election in a 2022

race lost 20 out of 28 out of 29 races

so if you were an election denier you

were almost certain to lose so where do

we stand in terms of favorability well

favorability between uh well all voters

sits at about 43 percent for DeSantis

and 36 percent for Trump if you put only

the likely voters against each other you

see an 86 percent favorability rating

for DeSantis and a 74 favorability

rating for Trump now things get

interesting when we leave favorability

and we start actually talking about

which candidate might win in a

hypothetical context us between DeSantis

and Trump The Wall Street Journal

released a poll and this is also the the

poll that conducted the favorability

studies the Wall Street journal's

hypothetical contest between DeSantis

and Trump led to DeSantis beating Trump

52 to 38 however you could just as

easily look at another morning consult

poll that also just came out within the

last week and in a hypothetical contest

between Trump and DeSantis Trump leads

to santus by 31 or sorry 31 to Santa's

49 Donald Trump I think the key thing

here is look we know we should question

polls right but I think what's clear out

of polls is that this is really right

now not a race of Ted Cruz or Greg

Abbott or Mike Pompeo or Tim Scott or or

really anyone else this is going to be a

trump DeSantis runoff and it's going to

be a very interesting primary now worth

noting that the morning console poll

actually

surveyed more registered voters 4 200

approximately uh between December 9th

and 11th and the Wall Street Journal

poll register only surveyed about 1500

registered voters between December 3rd

and 7th so you've got the morning

consult one that's a little bit earlier

but I think really what what we should

take away from these uh is is because

you could get as long as they're

randomly selected you could get

statistical significance out of these

which means even though those numbers

seem very small they could be somewhat

representative uh I believe the best

takeaway from this is just okay we gotta

focus on Trump DeSantis that's where it

is it's probably not going to be any of

the other candidates and the focus

should be on those too additionally if

you pit the Mike Pence against Donald

Trump you get Trump beating Mike Pence

but and this is by a large margin 63 to

28 and if you pit Biden versus Trump you

actually get Biden leading Trump 45

percent 243 now obviously these are just

poles but they're they're quite

interesting and in a moment I want to

touch on Gavin Newsom a little bit and

maybe a potential vice presidential

candidate for uh DeSantis to choose

which could be very powerful in my

opinion but take a look at this

percentage with a favorable view of all

you can see the breakdown here again

within party versus amongst all voters

that's the difference between the green

bar and the gray bar gray bar is within

the party and within the party you can

actually see this very clear distinction

where DeSantis edges above Donald Trump

here Mike Pence not not much excitement

over here for Mike Pence and then of

course within the party larger

favorability rating among some Biden but

not much more than what DeSantis already

has so quite fascinating we've got a

poll over here matchups again this shows

you potential matchup of primary

opponents Trump versus DeSantis DeSantis

here pulling ahead pretty pretty nicely

in that Wall Street Journal poll however

Donald Trump versus Mike Pence and it's

just a slam dunk for Donald Trump now

what about a vice presidential candidate

potentially for DeSantis well I spoke

with someone from Texas uh just the

other day and not that it matters where

they're really from but uh they're

they're in oil work and they had this

really interesting perspective that I

actually think is brilliant what if you

had DeSantis potentially aligned with

Abbott as a vice president that is the

governor of Texas so rather than them

competing against each other what if

they joined forces and aligned now that

I thought was really interesting in a

potentially powerful match-up against

Donald Trump

the only question then is who are feet

people going to vote for when it comes

down to DeSantis versus Newsom now some

folks argue that a Newsome vote could be

interesting because if he runs the

United States like he runs California

the United States just isn't going to

get anything done we'll literally just

have Democratic gridlock and nothing

will get done because risk just won't be

taken whereas a DeSantis presidency

could actually see some changes but then

that also makes some folks on the left a

little bit nervous as potentially

leading them to come out and vote more

than Republicans might who knows but

it's an interesting idea and it's

obviously very very early but we're

seeing a clear Trend so far and this has

been reiterated time and time again

since the midterm elections that Donald

Trump is getting a little bit pushed

aside whereas Mike Pence uh doesn't seem

to have much of a chance and DeSantis

seems to be really getting elevated in

multiple different polls and the more

this gets reiterated the more popular

DeSantis actually seems to become uh and

then that's very common the more news

coverage you get the more popular you

seem to become anyway let me know what

you think in the comments down below

thanks for watching we'll see in the

next one bye