It's Actually Happening

Welcome back to my 10 favorite people.

Hope you're doing well. I'm incredibly

excited for today's video because

Bitcoin continues to show early signs of

accumulation. Now, I know there's a ton

of investors out there right now that

are convinced they're going to be able

to buy Bitcoin at 40K or 30K later in

2026, like a traditional Bitcoin bare

market, but those investors are

completely underestimating just how

strong of a support region Bitcoin is

testing right now. Not only was this

area resistance for almost the entirety

of 2021, Bitcoin also consolidated in

this price region for 8 months in 2024.

Something Bitcoin has never really done

midbull market. And as if that wasn't

enough, it also coincides with that

pivotal 200E moving average that we know

has been so important for Bitcoin

historically. And you don't have to take

my word for it that longer consolidation

periods result in stronger relief

rallies. We can see that Bitcoin

consolidated for about 8 weeks in April

of 2025 and got an 8week relief rally

when it first retested that region. And

in June of 2025, Bitcoin consolidated

for about 5 weeks. And what do you know?

It got a 5we relief rally when it first

retested that consolidation region. Now,

do I expect Bitcoin to get an 8-month

relief rally? No. But I do expect this

relief rally to be a lot stronger and to

go a lot higher than most investors

currently expect. And it really wouldn't

surprise me if Bitcoin found a double

bottom here at this major support region

in 2026 the same way it had a double top

back when this was a major resistance

region in 2021. And that's why a shallow

bare market is still my base case. And I

completely understand why most investors

are ignoring this major support region

due to all the bearish narratives,

uncertainty, and extreme fear that's out

there right now. As you can see here,

the market has been in extreme fear for

quite a while now, and many investors

are just capitulating and throwing in

the towel. But it isn't just the market

sentiment that's getting investors to

capitulate. It's also all the

uncertainty. We know how much markets

hate uncertainty. And in just the past

week, we saw the Supreme Court strike

down the Trump tariffs. And right after

that happened, a 10% global tariff was

announced. And soon after that

announcement, a 15% global tariff was

announced. So markets are having a very

hard time pricing this in. and it's

creating a ton of uncertainty. And in

case the tariff uncertainty wasn't

enough confusion for markets to

navigate, we also have a ton of

uncertainty and fear surrounding AI. We

saw cyber security stocks take a beating

recently after Anthropic unveiled

Clawude Code Security. As you can see

here, a lot of these 50 to100 billion

companies were down 5 to 10% just that

day due to the announcement. But the

market truly hit peak panic when Catrini

Research published their 2028 scenario

piece on how many companies are going to

get disrupted between now and then. And

that felt like the perfect catalyst and

narrative for the software market to hit

peak capitulation. And this is

incredibly important to us Bitcoin

investors because the market still

treats Bitcoin like a software company.

As you can see here, this is Bitcoin's

chart overlaid with Black Rockck's

software ETF. And the similarities are

absolutely mind-blowing. And they seem

to have hit peak capitulation at the

exact same time. Software probably due

to AI fears and Bitcoin probably due to

four-year cycle fears combined with some

quantum FUD as well. And if anything, I

believe it's incredibly bullish that the

market still treats Bitcoin as just

another risky software company, which

means the market still doesn't fully

understand what Bitcoin is. We also saw

negative funding this week as traders

started aggressively trying to short

Bitcoin, expecting it to break down.

Again, underestimating just how strong

of a support level Bitcoin was testing.

And we saw a ton of capitulation onchain

as we can see here with the Bitcoin

realized profit and loss. We saw a big

spike in realized losses recently. And

these spikes may look small compared to

what we saw in 2022. But keep in mind,

these are in Bitcoin terms. So,

Bitcoin's price is about five times

higher than when it was at the FTX

bottom. So, in US dollar terms, this

spike recently here is actually bigger

than what we saw at the FTX bottom in

2022 because the dollar price per

Bitcoin is so much higher today. And we

can see that very clearly when looking

at charts denominated in US dollars like

the Bitcoin entity adjusted short-term

holder net realized profit and loss

ratio. As you can see here, these recent

realized losses by short-term holders

are larger in USD value than what we saw

back in the end of the bare market in

2022. Another great sign that Bitcoin

and crypto as a whole are near a local

bottom is it has once again become the

laughingstock of mainstream media. And

these comments by Neil Kashkari, the

Minneapolis Fed president, sum up crypto

sentiment so well. He said crypto is

utterly useless compared to AI and that

pro-stablecoin arguments are a buzzword

salad. And whenever you see mainstream

media or prominent figures confidently

dunk on Bitcoin and crypto because it's

the popular thing to do because prices

are down quite a bit, that's usually a

great local bottom indicator. But even

with the extreme fear, tariff

uncertainty and all the bearish

narratives, Bitcoin is still showing

clear signs of strength here and early

signs of accumulation and forming a

major bottom. And that is because smart

money and long-term oriented investors

are ignoring all of those things and are

instead focusing on this major support

level and the fact that Bitcoin is now

cheap relative to its 200E moving

average. And that is exactly why I

bought more Bitcoin on Monday morning.

It was pretty difficult to do given the

current price action, but I know

sticking to my plan will pay off in the

long term. And I do feel the temptation

to wait for lower prices, but I know

they aren't guaranteed. So, I am taking

advantage of this sell-off into the

cheap region and this major support

level while we have it. And if you'd

like to be notified whenever I make

portfolio changes, you can subscribe to

the free weekly report in the video

description. And as always, if you'd

like to learn more about my portfolio

automation system or mental models I use

to navigate this market or common

mistakes I see so many investors making,

you can check out the crypto enjoyers

program and community. And it's great to

see that the onchain data is saying

Bitcoin is cheap as well. This is the

Bitcoin MVRV pricing bands. And right

now, Bitcoin is at the green region. And

as you can see here, although Bitcoin

can go below the green region to the

blue very cheap region, anybody that

purchased anywhere around the green

during bare markets ended up being very

happy in the subsequent bull market

whenever it ended up coming back around.

Here's another way to view that chart

that makes things a little bit easier to

see. As you can see here, Bitcoin just

entered the green region and it tends to

spend very little time in this area. So,

I view it as an accumulation

opportunity, but I will also save some

cash in case we do get an opportunity to

buy in the blue, very cheap region at

some point in 2026. The RSI is telling a

very similar story here on the weekly

chart. As you can see here, we are just

as oversold today as we were back in

June of 2022. And although that wasn't

where Bitcoin bottomed that year, it was

within 15% of the bottom. And the RSI

ended up putting in a higher low when

Bitcoin went down to 15K during the FTX

collapse. But I don't think anybody

cared whether they bought at 15K or 17K

in 2022 when Bitcoin was trading above

100,000 a few years later. Bitcoin sharp

ratio is also telling a similar story.

Right now it's at the same level it was

at at the 2022 bottom, at the 2018

bottom, and at the 2015 bottom. And the

smart money seems to be realizing this.

So they have reduced their short

positions significantly recently. As we

can see here in red, CME traders are the

most net long they have been since the

April 2025 bottom before Bitcoin had a

strong rally. And the time before that

was September of 2023 which preceded a

long rally as well. So we'll see what

happens. But for now, bulls and bears

will likely keep battling over this

major 69K pivot level for Bitcoin. And

that's exactly why Monday's free weekly

report was called the battle continues.

As for the Bitcoin spot ETFs, so really

not much going on, but it's nice to see

some inflow starting to trickle in a bit

here. Bitcoin treasuries are still

pretty quiet and have only purchased

about $300 million here in February, and

most of that is coming from Strategy.

Strategy bought another $40 million in

Bitcoin this week, which marked their

100th purchase. MSTR seems to be finding

some support in its old consolidation

range. So, a relief rally alongside

Bitcoin seems likely, especially because

Strategy is now the number one most

shorted large cap stock in the US stock

market. And in terms of our Bitcoin

trading ranges, we haven't really done

much since we established our range low.

So, we're still waiting for more clarity

on how this range is going to develop

for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still down about

13% for the month of February with a few

days to go. So, it seems like the relief

rally might have to wait until March to

begin. And speaking of a March relief

rally, that's what the GLI is pointing

to over the next two months as well

until about the end of April. But what's

going to happen for the remainder of

2026 is going to come down to what the

US dollar decides to do. The US dollar

index is still consolidating at support

here. A breakdown would be huge for the

GLI. But if it does rally higher like it

has in previous midterm years like 2022,

2018, 2014, and 2010, that would be bad

for the GLI and Bitcoin as a result.

Because we know how important the GLI is

for Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, and

Bitcoin bare markets in the past have

coincided with tightening liquidity. But

as of right now, the Fed is still

expected to continue QE, which is

different from what they did in 2018 and

2022 during Bitcoin's past bare markets.

And the Fed is still expected to cut

rates twice here in 2026, which is also

different from the rate hiking they did

in 2018 and in 2022. The main risk to

more rate cuts and QE in 2026 would be

inflation continuing to head in the

wrong direction. We did get PCE at 2.9%

and the Fed's preferred measure of PCE

core PCE at 3%. And if we continue to

head in the wrong direction and go above

that 3% level, the market might start to

panic and start to price out some of

those rate cuts that were expected for

2026. In terms of US real GDP, still

quite positive at 2.2% for Q4. So, no

recession fears there. And the current

estimate for Q1 of 2026 is 3.1%. So,

we'll keep an eye on how these estimates

progress. And as for the labor market,

definitely still weakening according to

the unemployment rate, but nothing is

falling apart quite yet. Whether we take

a look at continuing jobless claims or

initial jobless claims, yes, the labor

market is weakening, and there are

cracks under the surface, but we're not

seeing the type of spike we would expect

in a layoffs going into a recession. As

for gold, still trying to grind higher

here. It's hard to tell if it's going to

be a lower high and more consolidation

or if it's going to go for it on this

move, but we're going to have to wait

and see. With silver, it seems a lot

more likely that it's going to be a

lower high before more consolidation. As

for the S&P 500, it continues to climb

the wall of worry, which is exactly what

we want to see if Bitcoin is going to

get a strong relief rally here. As for

Ethereum, bulls keep stepping in below

2,000, which is exactly what we want to

see. This is the most important support

level on Ethereum's chart, so it's great

to see that bulls are buying when

Ethereum is below 2,000. ETF inflows are

still pretty quiet, similar to Bitcoin.

And there's a bunch of scary narratives

out there right now for Ethereum, like

Buterine is going to sell 7,000 ETH, as

if that matters to the Ethereum price,

or the fact that Bitine is currently

down $8.8 billion on their Ethereum

investment. And that's distracting

investors from what really matters, like

Ethereum being below its realized price

here in purple, and how every time it

has been below its realized price, that

has been an incredible accumulation

opportunity. if you have a long time

horizon. Same thing with the Ethereum

Coinbase premium. It's now at the lowest

level that it's been at since the June

2022 bare market bottom for Ethereum,

showing you that there is a lot of

capitulation happening here by investors

on Coinbase. And last, but certainly not

least, perhaps the most important

Ethereum chart of all, the Ethereum

Bitcoin chart, which is currently

bouncing off of that range mid level

that we have been talking about over and

over again these past few months. And

Ethereum Bitcoin continues to hold that

level. Ethereum Bitcoin putting in a

higher low here is a pretty big deal

because the rest of the altcoin market

is doing the same thing according to the

altcoin season index showing that many

altcoins are still outperforming Bitcoin

here even after Bitcoin had this 50%

sell-off over the past few months and

for the first time in a long time we're

seeing early signs of life here for

Total 3. Now, it's too early to get very

excited, but if the Russell 2000 can

consolidate here and continue its price

discovery breakout, that could be an

early indication of what Total 3 might

do in the very near future. Right now,

I'm only expecting a relief rally, but

we'll continue to take it one week at a

time as price action develops. As for

Salana, great bounce off that $80 level

we've been watching over the past few

weeks, which coincided with previous

support where Salana has gotten some

major rallies in the past. So, it's nice

to see that buyers stepped in once again

when Salana was below $80. We're also

seeing very solid ETF inflows coming in

for Salana as well. And Salana Bitcoin

held and is currently bouncing off of

major support as well. So, this is

exactly what we want to see from Salana

for a major rally alongside Ethereum and

Bitcoin in the very near future. But,

we'll see what happens. We'll continue

to track this week by week. As of right

now, it seems like a very strong relief

rally makes the most sense and downside

is pretty limited here in the short term

given the capitulation we've seen over

the past few months. But we'll see what

happens. But as we look forward, the

federal government is still running huge

deficits. That trend seems to be

worsening year after year. Exponential

debt growth results in exponential money

supply growth as that debt has to get

monetized and the fiat currency gets

debased. and when the fiat currency gets

debased that acts as a tailwind for

valuable risk assets like the S&P 500

and fixed supply risk assets like

Bitcoin. But as always, let me know what

you expect. Thank you so much for the

support on the recent videos. Thank you

so much for watching and I'll talk to

you