Peter Schiff's Issues Economic "Bloodbath" Warning.

oh boy Peter Schiff has some Choice

things to say about inflation which

we're going to cover in just a moment

many of you can already imagine what

Peter shiff has to say about inflation

but there are some concerning things

leading into what Peter shiff has to say

that makes me pay a little bit more

attention take a look at this this is

the 5year break even for inflation it is

the markets expectation of inflation

over the next five years I broke this

down over at ec.com and what you can see

is this the last one year of inflation

expectations we have now broken the

highs that we briefly hit in October and

in March of last year and we are now at

a higher level of expected inflation

with a clear Trend straight up in

markets than we have had for any point

in the last 12 months hitting a low

right around the time JP pivoted and

turned a bit doish leading Marcus to

think hm is the Federal Reserve really

going to do enough to constrain

inflation especially since when we look

here we could see that if we annualize

the last 3 months or 6 months including

the estimates for February for pce of

pce inflation we can see very clearly

while we've come down nicely we're back

on an uptrend of inflation now is it

possible that this January February

uptrend will just be like a January

February uptrend here and we'll be right

back on a downtrend absolutely and maybe

that's what Fed chair jpow is waiting

for and expecting but what do Peter

Schiff warn in the meantime well that is

right here Peter shiff a guest I've had

on my channel multiple times visited his

house a couple of times great guy don't

always agree with all of his opinions

but I love paying attention to them

anyway to get perspective and insight

and that's one of the most important

things about the internet is we don't

have to agree with everything somebody

is saying we just want to look for what

is new and what are we potentially

missing Peter Schiff here suggests that

there's essentially no chance that

inflation is going back down to 2% and

we're on the verge of the biggest

Commodities bull market since the 1970s

this is probably very likely a proponent

of gold now I will say though that

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson who's been

pretty dang bearish on the stock market

has actually just turned bullish on

energy Commodities pretty bullish on

companies like conico Phillips and

ocidental petroleum suggesting that yeah

Commodities could actually rally Mike

Wilson from Morgan Stanley interested in

the energy sector Commodities not to be

confused with Renewables or like EVS or

solar but instead gas oil and then of

course shift more in gold silver right

here though Peter shift cites the H than

expected producer price report last week

contradicting power

but more importantly the FED is quote

cutting rates come hell or high water it

doesn't matter what the data is the Fed

is going to cut rates because the

country is broke they're not cutting

rates because they've won the war

against inflation they lost the war

they're cutting rates because they have

to avoid a financial crisis a banking

crisis and they want to try to reelect

Joe Biden now Donald Trump has has

already made it very clear that he would

fire Jerome how if Donald Trump is

elected and the Federal Reserve

indicates that they won't be

politicized but you have to wonder how

much politics might still have at least

somewhat of an influence on the Federal

Reserve right here uh you've got Peter

Schiff arguing that back in the day Ben

banki said we would never monetize our

debt basically print money just to be

able to pay our interest payments

because that would be like a Banana

Republic yet that is exactly what's

happening now so we must be a Banana

Republic and Peter Schiff wraps up by

saying we haven't experienced anything

like that this economy facing this sort

of inflation since the 1970s the

difference is that we're in much worse

shape economically now than where we

were in the 70s now I find this very

interesting because it stands quite in

contrast to what you see from uh

companies like TS Lombard who are

suggesting the following so where do we

end up from here for me the likeliest

path is a is still the softish landing

with the occasional bump I'm not sure

the authorities can get inflation down

to 2% but they're not going to trigger a

recession for the sake of an extra 100

basis points even a small policy

adjustment can prevent problems in

corporate debt and Commercial Real

Estate now this is very interesting to

reconcile because if you pull together

TS Lombard and Peter Schiff you're

actually somewhat arguing the same thing

you're arguing hey maybe we don't get

inflation down to 2% but maybe that's

okay after all it should be no surprise

to Jerome Powell that inflation

expectations have risen if anything Drew

and Powell is acutely aware that

inflation expectations have risen and

yet actively chose to ignore this so is

it possible that TS Lombard is right

when they say hey

we're going to stick on the path of some

nominal rate adjustments because even a

nominal rate adjustment will help soothe

the pain in commercial debt commercial

real estate and in banking I'm not

entirely sure if that really is going to

make a difference but TS Lombard thinks

so and of course Peter Schiff thinks

well it's all up Ponzi and they're going

to do whatever they can any way to keep

it going as long as they can even if

they end up giving up on the inflation

battle so this is where I got to

wondering hm where could we potentially

look to see some introductory inflation

in markets and see hey is there maybe a

leading indicator of what's going on

well this morning in our course member

live stream which I like to try to do

this every single day the market is open

we go through some form of fundamental

analysis one of the things we looked at

this morning was Olive Garden now Olive

Garden has always had this principle of

we will end up pricing below inflation

and they're doing that to really

advertise to their customers that look

we're not raising prices we're we're

just barely keeping up with inflation if

anything we're undershooting inflation

yet the reality seems to be a little

different see Olive Garden stated the

following commodity inflation came in at

about

1.5% which was below their expectation

and their pricing went up by 3 and 1/2%

and labor inflation was about 4 1/2% so

to me it seems like you're either right

in the midpoint or you're slightly on

the high side of how much pricing you've

actually taken at Olive Garden that's

LED Olive Garden to brag about their

margins and how well they're doing

because of course they're using AI in

their scheduling of course they are now

I personally think they're full of crap

last year they said yeah we're going to

price below inflation and then oh well

surpris we actually priced higher than

inflation now they're saying the same

thing again yeah yeah yeah yeah we're

going to price below inflation yet in

the meantime we're going to kind of keep

ratcheting and ratcheting and ratcheting

and the scary thing about this is take a

look at this overall inflation

expectations for Olive Garden Olive

Garden expects overall inflation to be

in the mid3 for us and pricing probably

in two and a half or the two to two and

a half range I actually think it'll end

up being higher but the fact that they

expect inflation to be in the mid-

Theses and labor inflation included in

that to contribute to Mid 3s on

inflation shows we're not exactly

trending close to 2% just yet now maybe

maybe maybe maybe it's all as JP said

maybe it's just that hey look we got to

get through the first few months and

then we're going to be right where we

were right where we were was the

trajectory of cutting cutting cutting

now what I like to do is I like to

compare well where were we just a few

months ago well just a few months ago

and I think this is a very interesting

chart to compare to I'm going to show

you the world interest rate probability

chart now I think this is fascinating

because it's going to show you

a change over time so let's throw this

up on screen so what you have on the

left side is a chart that shows you

markets were pricing in about 6.6 cuts

by the end of 2024 see that here

December 20124 this would be roughly the

beginning of 2025 and then over here you

have the number of rate Cuts so about

6.6 rate cuts that would bring rates

down to about

3.75% percent over here number of cuts

over here I'll zoom into into that for a

moment just so you can kind of see it

maybe a little bit more clearly right

here okay that's where we were now I

want you to see how many rate Cuts we're

pricing in now so this is January 2nd is

what this screenshot is from uh at least

I I backdated the uh data and went back

into the data which you could do you can

look at the charts back uh and then

compare that to where we sit

today this data is based on today today

we're only pricing in 3.6 rate cuts by

the end of January so if we go over here

to this left chart we've removed about

half of the cuts well what happens if we

continue to get data like this do we

remove the next half of the cuts yeah

probably now does that necessarily mean

the stock market's going to have any

issues no I mean look at Bitcoin

basically it's at all-time highs

nasdaq's about to go positive and once

again you've got Nvidia in rally mode

knocking on the door of its all-time

Highs at

957 pretty dang exciting now one thing

that did rally a little euphorically was

lucid this morning but we made sure to

short that this morning as we started

our course member live stream we shorted

it right around here sold it not all the

way at the bottom but right around 3ish

dollars right around where it is right

now and so we didn't get the exact

bottom but we did pick up a nice 40 to

50% gain on that short if you want my

Buy sell alerts make sure you're part of

the stocks and psychology of money group

so that was a nice few thousand just for

a quick little swing on a morning

euphoria pop boom short out thank you 30

minutes of work or less it's great but

what matters most here is could Peter

shift be right and could TS Lombard be

right that the Federal Reserve kind of

throws in the towel on 2% inflation I

don't think so and this is an important

bottom line so good job if you made it

this far in the video I do not think the

Federal Reserve is going to be willing

to increase their inflation Target to 2

and2 or 3% drum Powell was already asked

about flexible average inflation

targeting that was his best opportunity

to say yeah as long as we average out

10% or two and a half sorry as long as

we average out 2% we'll be good but

that's not what he said he said

basically we're not using a flexible

average inflation targeting anymore

we're committed to 2% now of course the

risk is that if you're committed to 2%

for too long you end up creating a labor

market issue you lead to

layoffs now even though we have started

seeing layoffs people do seem to be able

to get jobs again so jobs data hasn't

started weakening but there is the risk

that once jobs data starts weakening

it's too late but I don't think you have

a Federal Reserve that's willing to

throw in the towel on 2 and a half% yet

that means that when you have people

like ghouls be suggesting that we're in

a murky period of inflation even though

he thinks we still have three rate cuts

to go whereas bosk says he only expects

One Rate cut this year we have to

recognize that 5year break even

inflation levels this on a chart going

all the way back to

2022 5year inflation Break Even levels

sit at 2006 and S levels when the

Federal Reserve was worried about

inflation and was raising rates going

into the Great Recession yeah they were

raising rates going into the Great

Recession that's scary that we St we're

stabilizing out with inflation at

roughly the same level as we did before

2007 and 8 so am I here to say the AI

Euphoria is over no not not at all that

could probably keep going for quite a

while does it make me want to chase

every single AI play there is no do I

want to trade heck yeah and I'm going to

send Bell alerts for that but am I a

little dare I say confused at the moment

that you could have a Federal Reserve

literally staring at the data and say

data looks fine to me and I'm going

y'all said you data dependent which one

is it I advertise these things that you

told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this well we'll try a little

advertising and see how it Go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

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