Tesla's New Car Event | WHEN will TSLA Stock Skyrocket

hey everyone me kevin here so a lot of

you have been asking me what my thoughts

are on

tesla and the tesla model s plaid event

that happened yesterday the first 25

deliveries of which

went out yesterday which is super

exciting for tesla it's

a move in the right direction to launch

a new car and especially one

as powerful as the model s plaid the

model s plat in case you haven't seen it

yet

take a look just at the website here the

model s plaid boasting of a 390 mile

range 1.99 second zero to 60

10 well 1020 horsepower and

this a new reformed interior where you

have a horizontal screen

all standardized parts so we could use

the same parts in the cyber truck the

new s's

x's and the threes and y's everything

gets the same interior

including this yolk steering wheel which

is half size so that way you have more

visibility of your screen

and your surroundings especially during

autopilot use which is very important

given that we expect these cars to be

used with autopilot a lot more

so a lot of you have been wondering am i

going to get the model s what do i think

about the model x and

why is it that tesla stock is not moving

so let's go ahead and answer all of

these

i do want to mention that tomorrow i

will be in san francisco that is june

12th

holding a campaign rally if you want to

come make sure to sign up

go to meetkevin.com there's a button for

you to sign up for the san francisco or

the los angeles one

click the button sign up for whichever

event it's totally free to come to and

i'd love to have you it's 4 p.m

each day all right folks so on the s

here will i be getting one

well let me tell you this first things

first you got to know that the model s

plaid has this uh

standardized mirror in it which the ys

and model threes have as well which does

include an interior cabin

camera which has begun

starting to enforce autopilot

usage and so here's what i mean by that

if you google cabin camera

autopilot tesla you'll see that

previously

the autopilot camera was actually off

and not used

and it was really just there to start

training the algorithm that

tesla uses so that their neural net

understands whether or not you are

actually paying attention

to the road but what we have here is a

usa today piece from may 28th that says

tesla activated their cabin cameras

for monitoring drivers during autopilot

use and

this here says the move qualifies as

something as a concession towards safety

watch hogs or watch dogs who have

criticized the company for not doing

enough to prevent drivers from misusing

its autopilot feature

this obviously comes after we've had

many instances where autopilot was

blamed for people climbing into the back

of the car while having autopilot on

and blatantly disregarding safety rules

which is unfortunate because it's really

an example of tesla

being forced to basically punish

everyone on behalf of safety watchdogs

for a few knuckleheads who are

totally misusing the device for example

this article talks about how in gm's

cadillac supercrew system the vehicle

will even come to a complete halt

if the driver does not respond now we

don't yet know how

teslas respond if you don't pay

attention

or your eyes aren't on the road but the

assumption is that they probably kick

you out on autopilot or stop the car

kind of like the car does now when you

don't jiggle the steering wheel enough

i have an older 2017 model x which i've

had for

three and a half years now and i've

watched autopilot evolve and get

really really good let me tell you this

system here which is the supercrew

system

it to me seems a little excessive and

annoying

for example there's this camera right

here in the steering wheel and when this

individual covers up the camera

the wheel starts flashing the green

which indicates hey you need to prove

that you're paying attention

and then it flashes red to essentially

warn that the car is going to stop

or discontinue the use of autopilot

personally i think this is

excessive uh that is because i've used

autopilot

so so much that i've come to find if

let's say you're on the carpool lane on

the left lane which is not a passing

lane when it's a carpool lane

and you've got your uh you know distance

set to seven

seconds behind the car in front of you

you've got plenty of room

and really what you're doing is you're

paying attention to your right and

you're sort of right front to make sure

that traffic in front of you isn't

slowing down and that traffic to your

side

isn't coming to cut you off really the

need

for you to stare at the road

consistently

is is a little less uh if anything it

could lead to

making you more drowsy and pay attention

less whereas if you're let's say in a

driver's seat and let's say this is the

road so you're the road here

and let's say i'm having a conversation

with a passenger next to me i can

occasionally look over at them

while still having my peripheral vision

paying attention to the road to see if

i'm getting cut off or traffic is

slowing down

as the car is driving you can do that

with your hand on the wheel so that way

you're ready

to re-engage if at any point you need to

this is very normal it's very natural

when a car is

on autopilot but to be on autopilot and

then to

essentially have your eyes force glued

to the road

is really doubly boring than just

straight

driving no some people actually just

like straight driving and that's fine

i'm not trying to say

that liking driving is a bad thing

that's fine well what i am trying to say

is if you're driving and you're actually

actively driving

then great like you're engaged you're

driving you're engaged everything

but if the car is on autopilot and now

you're just sitting there

staring the road like a really boring

silent movie in my opinion

it takes away from the purpose of having

autopilot

if if i can move my eyes freely and take

a look at different

aspects of the road or briefly look at

the person next to me

i should be able to do that on autopilot

while still being able to main control

and maintain control of my field of

vision and my peripheral and my reflexes

and ability to take control of the car

if i need to

now maybe i have too much trust in the

tesla autopilot system

it is not full self-driving yet we are

not at that level yet

but to me having my 2017 tesla model x

means i don't have this camera system so

for me

i'm not upgrading to the model s in fact

i'd rather just take my money and throw

it into tesla stock anyway

i'm gonna keep my old tesla model x i

don't know maybe i'll get tempted by the

cyber truck

but quite frankly i barely drive right

now it's mostly making youtube videos

fly to where i gotta go fly to

destinations to talk to people and

interview people

and then i'm sitting here again so my

driving is very little

maybe i'd feel differently about buying

it if i was driving a lot more so i'm

not going to be buying one

but i did want to get that out about my

thoughts about the camera

i think the the newer models

unfortunately this is just the direction

the industry is heading and it's one

that i think is a little excessive

now with that out of the way what do we

actually think about the event well look

the event was great we have

a new model that we have delivered and

this is absolutely wonderful we want to

see new deliveries of new vehicles

but when is the stock actually going to

move and this might be something you all

care about is when is the stock actually

going to move

well in my opinion here's what how this

is going to work so this is tesla's last

presentation and we can see that snx

production

came in at zero which makes sense we

came in at zero for q1

2021 which uh ignore this this 2020 here

this was an annotation i made the last

time i

filmed excuse me using this presentation

but anyway we have zero deliveries for

2021

of the s and x that's of course because

we've re-ramped

the production lines to accommodate the

new

tesla model s and the revamped model x

and so the issue with this is when in a

quarter previously we were delivering

16 000 units or even 6 000 before

with now delivering zero our average

cost per vehicle has plummeted

and that unfortunately hurts tesla's

profitability of course

and you would expect it to hurt tesla's

margin but what's been absolutely

incredible

is that tesla's actually maintained

their vehicular margin

despite not having the more expensive

s's and x and what's incredible is

despite having these lower margin

vehicles if you go to the section where

it says automotive gross margin

excluding regulatory credits

you'll actually see that margin in q1

2021 went up

at tesla despite not having

the more expensive models so think about

it like this

let's say you got a zero on your term

paper and

your grade point average went up that

would mean that all of a sudden

all of your other papers just got a

whole lot better

all of your other processes at tesla

just got a whole lot more efficient

and this makes sense because remember

we're standardizing

so much at tesla now that it would make

sense

margins go up as we have the most

standardized interior of a car that has

really ever existed

between four different models it's soon

to be five different models when the

cyber truck comes out

which is absolutely incredible now of

course we did have a margin decline

going into covid this is understandable

so we did we are kind of

more just like showing this recovery

back to where we had been so this could

have a little bit of a skew here

but the fact that we got a zero and

margin still went up is very very good

so

when do we start seeing price reaction

and price movement when it comes to this

new vehicle that has been released okay

so to answer this question we have to

understand what elon musk projected

so to conservatively understand that

let's do this elon musk says

that we should be able to deliver 700

units per week pretty darn

soon so for the next quarter since we're

only starting halfway in

let's go with 700 for six

weeks as part of well actually we only

have june left and they're just now

getting delivered so quite frankly you

only have three weeks left in the

quarter

so you're really only going to see

somewhere around if you're

lucky 2 000 of these model s units get

delivered in this quarter

that's going to help push our margins up

a little bit in q2

but where this is going to become much

more important is actually going to be

q3

see by q3 elon musk thinks we're going

to be able to deliver a thousand units

plus of these vehicles

which on a quarterly basis should lead

us to get to around 12.

uh sorry two yeah 12 000 to 15 000 units

per quarter and if you notice that's

going to be roughly in line with where

we before where we were before

now ideally this number actually starts

growing as well and we start getting to

somewhere around 20 000 deliveries per

quarter

because that would show a large appetite

for this new hyper fast car

and pretty incredible car now when that

occurs and we are able to start filling

in

12 000 over here 15 020 000

i expect vehicular margin to go up

substantially above what we've had

previously

because what we've had previously again

has been this vacillating margin here

for various different reasons covet

absolutely having an impact

the shutdown of the model s and x lines

hurting over here

so i would expect especially with this

increase in efficiency over here despite

those lines being down

i would expect that margin is going to

return not only to this 23.7 percent

but it's probably going to return to an

even larger number if we can get

to a new margin level of somewhere

around 25

by either q3 or q4 i think tesla is

easily an 800 to 900

stock again and i wouldn't be surprised

if in a year from now

we're sitting at fifteen hundred to two

thousand dollars because

then all of a sudden we're going to have

this massive period of tesla flood

behind us

we're going to know hey did the tesla

model s's the new ones did they fall

apart did they have quality control

issues that the new batteries if they're

using the new batteries burst into

flames

what what like how is the new car

how are tesla's latest engineering

standards

and so this is going to be a really big

test moment for tesla

and so as long as tesla survives this

test

and we start delivering these vehicles

in q3 and 4

i expect tesla's margin to go up

substantially and when wall street

realizes oh my gosh there's a brilliance

to having a standardized interior

across all of your four to five

different models wall street

i think is going to really reward tesla

so i'm very enthusiastic about tesla

certainly over the next 12 months i

think we've had one heck of a

an extended buying opportunity here

close to this

550 to 620 range

i think this is a steal quite frankly i

think under 700

is a bargain for this company it does

trade for about 20

trades for about 54 times 2025 estimated

earnings but i do think wall street's

estimations are low for tesla's earnings

so i am personally pricing this at

closer to 40 times 2025 earnings and

as a result i i really believe that

here's a company

uh that that has a lot of growth coming

for it

and we're really just at the beginning

of the s curve we're at the beginning

of the exponential curve of tesla's

production

people see the stock price and say oh

well tesla's already gone to the moon

yeah but their production is literally

right here like we're

just getting started this year we expect

to break one million units produced

we're probably going to get to 10

million produced within the next

eight nine years here so we'll see how

things develop but i'm super excited

about this course

and i see that exponential growth ahead

of us so there you have my opinion on

the tesla event my opinion on the model

s thank you very much for watching if

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