The Crypto Correction & Crypto Winter.

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bf hey everyone me kevin here in this

video i want to talk to you about a

relationship that i'm noticing between

the pricing of cryptocurrency assets and

something that you want to know

especially if you are trading

cryptocurrency assets now keep in mind i

specifically am saying

trading here because you are either a

hodler or you're a trader

generally or or you lucked into lots of

money when it comes to cryptocurrency

assets and the reason i want to make

that clear is

if you're a hodler you probably don't

care about this

you're just going to keep buying as it

dips and that's fine

i have a portion of my portfolio that's

cryptocurrency hotel

it's all bitcoin i'm considering getting

into a dip here on ethereum as a hotel

position

but i did have a trader position in

bitcoin and i want to show you something

that i said on january

6th and then i'm going to show you

something about

why i said this and a trend that i

noticed on the bloomberg terminal okay

but first let me show you this so this

video that i'm pulling up right here

this is a video from january 6. you can

see it right here

what's crazy is this was the day of the

capital riots except this was our course

member live stream

before i started streaming the capital

riots i wore this suit

in the 10 hour live stream that you

could still see by going to youtube

which is crazy

if you type in meet kevin capital riots

you will see this 10 hour live stream it

has a million views

of me basically covering the entire

capital rights is a crazy day

even though the thumbnail is a blue suit

you could see that it's it's the same

green suit here

the reason i'm saying this is because

this was filmed on january 6th

and it's really really eerie looking

back to this

but just listen to this for a brief

moment here

i'm going to hide my my current self

here for a moment

give this a listen for like 20 30

seconds here watch this

this is when i want to sell bitcoin

april

april 13th to 15th tax time okay

so i'm gonna put that on my calendar

okay pause there so in this video

i explain why i was considering

selling bitcoin on april 13th and i'm

going to explain that to you right now

at least in terms of my trader position

not my hotel position

keep in mind that is the course member

live stream now what's really really

crazy

about this timing is take a look at this

folks

april 13th is right there literally

right between

the 12th to the 14th the peak here

now i mentioned in the video tax time

and that was sort of an

extra little note sometimes people sell

cryptocurrency assets to pay their taxes

but taxes got delayed

that wasn't the big crux of the video in

fact the big crux of our course member

live stream here

was actually what's on screen right here

which if you look closely it's the us

bureau of labor statistics

that darn consumer price index

thing that everybody hates look

everybody watching this video is

probably rolling their eyes like oh my

gosh

nobody believes the cpi the cpi is

garbage look i agree with you

i totally think the cpi misses a ton of

stuff

stocks going to the moon housing going

to the moon lumber

hvac material copper wiring all this

stuff's up like 50

and they mean to tell us there's no

inflation right it's a bunch of fugazi

the cpi thing

a lot of people don't believe in the cpi

thing but why did i

pick and i explained this in an over one

hour live stream here

which we cover other things obviously in

the course member live streams as well

but i'm going to give you an update

somewhere here

and i'm going to show you what i just

noticed in the bloom door excuse me in

the bloomberg terminal which is

absolutely crazy

but one of the reasons i picked april

13th

was because that's the morning of cpi

data that

came out on april 13th for march and i

thought back in january

if we get the stimulus package passed by

march

we start getting that inflation data

showing up in march

it's entirely possible that using that

cpi

if that cpi data comes in not as high as

expected

bitcoin could begin to trend down

even though many of us don't believe in

the cpi data

if we start seeing cpi coming in softer

even if it's manipulated

if it's coming in softer than we expect

as a trader

it could affect bitcoin and

cryptocurrency prices

now we had obviously the coinbase pump

which happened the very next day

april 14th as well and then when

coinbase missed

things softened but i wanted to try to

see

if there was a longer-term relationship

between the cpi

uh and what can be affected by the cpi

which i think the best measure for

inflation or people's inflation

expectations is actually the 10-year

treasury

and so i want to see the relationship

between the 10-year treasury

and the trends in bitcoin

and this i found was very interesting

so what i did was i took a chart on the

bloomberg terminal

which i'm going to show you in a moment

and i charted the 10-year treasury this

year

so year today and we know it's gone up

and at one point

starting in february it started going up

very sharply

and lately it's kind of been trending

down a little bit

well interestingly so have kryptos

kryptos have performed extremely well at

the first part of the year

now they're trending down a little bit

again i want to be extremely clear

before i show you this chart

i'm not doing this for hodlers i'm not

trying to like fear monger people out of

bitcoin

i want to buy more bitcoin and i want to

buy more ethereum i want to make that

very very clear

but if you're a trader i think this

really or somebody looking at short term

signals while i can't give you

guarantees that this works

this is just an interesting pattern that

i've noticed

when our cpi data comes in

short of high expectations everybody's

prepping for oh my gosh cpi is going to

come in crazy

and then when it didn't come in that

crazy in march we started seeing

treasury yields

go down and now we're starting to see

inflation expectations in the bond

market

go down and what's happening with crypto

crypto prices are going down even today

they fall in a chunk today

take a look at this chart let the chart

do the talking here okay

so i'm gonna just shut up look at the

chart

this shaded line just to explain it here

the white line this white uh

line and everything below the white line

this is the u.s tenure right here the

blue line

is bitcoin and this is all normalized to

a factor of a hundred so they both start

out at 100

and then we can kind of see their change

over time here right look at this

near perfect tracking in january

almost perfect tracking in january scary

then we start getting inflation

expectations

increase here you actually see bitcoins

a little bit more reactive

and bitcoin reacts quicker than the

inflation

uh or i should say the 10-year treasury

prices in

uh inflation but both of them basically

go uh from from being totally matched

around

january 28th right around here to

totally matched again

march 23rd on the same trajectory

now we had our april 13th peak

right here and the coinbase hype

happened

right here at this sort of peak point

here so in my opinion it's possible this

sort of extra

bump here was because of the sort of

coinbase momentum and hype and euphoria

and all that

but take a look what's happening again

they're on the

same collision course of aligning again

which is really interesting how these

two are trending together

now so far this relationship has really

only been

very well connected year to date

if i zoom out it gets a little bit more

unclear that we haven't

also really seen the mega run in

cryptocurrency

until kind of like december and the

start of this year

so really it seems like from december to

now we have this really bizarre

relationship

between the 10-year and bitcoin

but also the relationship with cpi

data and the 10-year and so

this is why when i did that course

member live stream which remember if you

want to join any of my programs there's

a link down below i plan on having that

expire

uh towards the end of this month maybe

like the first week of may i'm still

deciding depends on when the marketing

is ready

and uh take a look at that any of the

programs you join link down below

whether you get the bundles or whatever

you get access to all of not only my

live stream archives so you could go

back to that video on january 6th if you

wanted to

go back to any of my archives or my

fundamental analyses like my palantirs

or whatever

all the videos that aren't released

publicly the really

nitty-gritty stuff but you also get

access to all the lectures and you get

lifetime access to all those lectures

and the new ones that i add

so consider checking that out via the

link down below and use that coupon code

you could also bundle up

now the other thing that's worth

mentioning here is a lot of folks are

discussing the possibility

of this september crash in

cryptocurrencies

possibly because of something known as

the start of a crypto winter

that oftentimes happens a certain amount

of months after the

bitcoin having and this is where there

could potentially be this

crypto winter which some people say last

winter it could last six months some

people say it could last two or three

years

where basically cryptocurrency prices

could sell down

70 to 90 percent who knows if it'll be

that severe

but that there could be some kind of

crash coming that it could last

and and then essentially it'll come back

and when it comes back

it could go to 100 300 400 500 000

who knows there's a lot of talk about

this crypto winter

because there's so much talk about the

script of winter either coming in

september so in the fall or in the

winter

in my opinion wouldn't be shocking for

because of people's expectations of this

coming

us to start seeing some potential

selling pressure

before that kind of like in the spring

or summer which potentially compounds

what we're seeing now in this

relationship

with the ten year now i am i'm not

a hundred percent confident in these

things i personally have to say

i have missed my own advice by

a week which i'm really disappointed

about because

on my calendar i will show you my

calendar for

april 13th take a look at this on april

13th

this is what was on my calendar i had

the kevin o'leary interview at 8

and cpi data coming out at 5 30 a.m

which i woke up for and i covered live

and i wrote on there sell bitcoin except

i didn't do it

i was a baby i didn't do it but i didn't

sell my trader position

that day i didn't listen to my own

advice and i regret that

instead i ended up selling uh about 500

000

worth of bitcoin on april 20th 4 20

which was also when i did my big options

purchase

in case you're not familiar with that

options purchase that's when i

basically sold about nine million

dollars worth of stocks

bought about four million dollars worth

of options that have

the control of about 12 million dollars

in

equivalent share value so as long as i'm

right with my options

bet i actually have more exposure to the

market

than not and i also plan on buying into

these crypto

dips but i did wait until bitcoin was

somewhere around 54 000

to sell which uh does put me pretty

profitable

on uh my bitcoin since i had been buying

it since about 32 to 35 000

on average but this was this was a trade

i went into this as a trade

i left it very profitably if i had

followed my written strategy which is

what i teach in my programs

i would have done even better i don't

know why i didn't

but i waited a week oh well should have

listened to myself

that happens sometimes sometimes we we

let in patience or i should say uh

oh well it could keep running get to the

best of us right

so anyway following the strategy very

very important but i do think

that uh going forward there is a

continued opportunity to potentially see

on the cpi release dates additional

downward pressure and 10-year treasury

yields

which if bitcoin tracks down with it

maybe

uh cryptocurrencies could continue to

sell down and create more of a buying

opportunity

for me my written strategy is to

continue to buy cryptos

at least bitcoin somewhere between 35 to

44

000 that's not my ideal obviously if i

can get it cheaper than this range

i'll be more interested in loading the

boat i am also interested in

diversifying into ethereum

so if we start hitting those prices in

btc i'll probably also be buying

ethereum and of course if i do i'll be

sending out alerts for exactly what i

buy and when

uh in the programs if you want the buy

sell alerts i do mention those in the

stocks and psychology of money program

linked down below and teach you how to

build long-term

wealth with some fundamental strategies

okay so this right here is the schedule

for consumer price releases i personally

recommend

putting these dates on your calendar

again even if you think

these these uh cpi releases are fugazi

bullcrap whatever

i agree with you but at least put these

dates on your calendar

my my expectation was slightly off over

here i

put down two point four percent ended up

being about two point it was either 2.5

or 2.6 percent it was pretty dang close

but it was nowhere near that three

percent some folks were concerned might

come in

uh in the month over month inflation

increase was point six percent

nowhere near that one percent a lot of

folks were concerned might happen

this was one of the reasons we started

seeing the treasury market kind of uh

the yields start selling down or lower

in the treasury market we do expect

bigger numbers coming in april may

but if these don't come in as high as

expected on month to month bases

we continue to see that treasury yield

decline and if it's true that bitcoin's

tracking the treasury yield then it's

possible that bitcoin could also follow

that treasury yield down a little bit

or even precede it sort of predict it a

little bit not sure

it's an interesting connection that i

found and it's it's totally based in

exactly what i was talking about

back on january 6th when i first made my

written strategy

again i was off by a week on my

execution but my strategy

was accurate so anyway we'll see

how things go i will continue to track

10-year treasuries

and uh i'm looking forward to buying a

lot more of a hotel position

in cryptos especially now that i have

absolutely zero margin

which if you want to learn more about

that where i explain

what i bought and sort of or why i sold

and why i bought what i did

i typed this into youtube but type in

meet kevin

the truth about my margin so if you type

in meet kevin the truth about margin

you'll see this video that's called

revealing the truth

about my stock debt what just happened

this is a very very important video to

watch right here

from four days ago and that'll sort of

explain some of the things that i just

did

anyway thank you so much for watching

this video and my thoughts here my

connections interested to hear

what your thoughts are and folks we'll

see in the next one

you