Shocking Recession ADMISSION from Trump Admin!

the Trump Administration is willing to

accept a recession to accomplish what

they want in this video we've not only

got to talk about what ladnik just said

but also Canada's retaliation or new

retaliation and what this could mean

going forward for the stock market

recession CPA this morning everything

together we're going to talk about it

let's get started with this will these

policies be worth it if they lead to a

recession even a short-term recession

these policies are the most important

thing America am has ever had so it is

worth it it it is worth it a I don't

think they the only reason there could

possibly be a recession is because of

the Biden nonsense that we had to live

with these policies produce revenues

they produce growth they produce

factories being built here you're seeing

the announcements I went to all right so

let's break this down first of all I

have to give lutnick an A+ for being a

Salesman for Trump but I'll tell you if

we go into a recession

these announcements of factories being

built and Investments coming into the

United States from Apple or other

companies they're just that

announcements Capital expenditures get

cut in a recession so Mr lutnick

respectfully if we fall into a recession

because consumer spending knows Dives

and I'm not saying we definitely will

but if we do those Investments are going

to get put on pause and ironically it

might end up being the next

administration at is 4 years years from

now that ends up picking up the benefits

of those it's sort of like the irony

that when Donald Trump lost in 2020 a

lot of us joked on this channel we said

wow wouldn't it be crazy if for some

reason inflation didn't end up being

transitory we ended up having a lot of

inflation and Biden got blamed for it

all and then all of a sudden Trump came

back in right around the time that

inflation was starting to settle back

down again gee wouldn't that be

crazy well as Elon Musk likes to say

usually the most ironic outcome is what

happens and that's exactly what happened

which is just like wow okay that's my BL

isn't it then also possible that there's

this weird irony that yes Donald Trump

could set up tax cuts and a lot of

investment into America but those

Investments don't actually come to

fruition until after Trump leaves office

and potentially after a recession given

the willingness of the Trump

Administration to endure a recession now

I don't know that we are primed

for a recession immediately I think data

is clearly signaling slowing and a lot

of people are suffering and feeling like

we're already in a recession data

doesn't say we're in it yet but that's

okay the data usually takes a while to

say that we're in it the real issue is

the pH balance of the United States

economy is starting to turn ugly Goldman

Sachs says macroeconomic signals are

clearly slowing we're seeing those price

reductions on future targets for the S&P

500 and we're seeing those PRI those

increases in odds from JP Morgan and

others over recession risk BCA research

suggesting a 70% chance JP Morgan

revising up to about a 30% Goldman up to

about a 40% chance these are all risk

factors that our economy will have to

manage in addition to the turbulence

that we've get from Canada now remember

yesterday Canada imposed a 25%

electricity uh tariff on exports of

electricity from Canada from the Ontario

provid uh Province yesterday I estimated

that this was worth about 1 to $4 per

$100 of electricity that people in New

York Minnesota and Michigan pay in other

words it's a very very small tariff that

25% of a small number works out to $1

to4 per $100 tiny tiny tariff so Canada

yesterday withdrew those tariffs and if

you were looking at x.com at all you saw

a lot of people on X cheering how Donald

Trump just crushed the Canadians and

beat the Canadians the tariffs uh you

know folded right over in Canada As

Trump came in and said we're doubling

your steel and aluminum

teffs I looked at this with suspicion as

I usually do I look at everything with

suspicion I try to give you unique

perspectives I was looking at this

yesterday go those electricity tariffs

weren't worth it keep that in mind those

electricity tariffs were so small they

had such a tiny impact on Americans

whereas the doubling of 25% to 50% the

aluminum and steel TS were worth tariffs

on essentially 10 billion of

infrastructure in Industry that's bad

those are a hit so Trump's response was

significantly larger in response to

those electricity tariffs so Canada says

all right let's get rid of those tariffs

cool Trump's big tariff goes away now

what does Canada do they come out with

some real tariffs this morning Canada

just announced a 25% matching tariff

against items like steel aluminum cast

iron products computers and other

products against the United States now

we're actually hitting over $20 billion

of Industry not a little bit of an

electricity surcharge we're actually

hitting a real portion of us

industry and Canada is announcing that

they are planning to raise tariffs in

coordination with European allies this

is what I warned about a few days ago

when I said the biggest concern that we

have is not what Sarah Eisen says on

which is oh you know Mexico versus the

United States they don't have the cards

Oh Canada versus the United States oh

they don't have the cards the biggest

risk is actually a coalition of all of

the people that we are upsetting in

America with these uncertain tariffs and

these make everything equal again

tariffs that's at least the

argument which I like to it's it's a bad

name please leave a comment with a

better name but I call it NAFTA you know

like not the United States again it's a

terrible name but a CO Coalition of

China Mexico Canada and Europe all of

those economies together are very

powerful against the United States it's

very easy to say oneon-one we win all of

them together becomes a problem now keep

this in mind as well lck's thesis is

clearly one of populism and one that

makes logical sense if you believe that

economically it could be achieved let me

rephrase this in a simple way by showing

you the clip of the passion that he

gives you 9 minutes into the video uh

with with um Face the Nation I just need

you to know going into what you're about

to hear

economically and

historically okay so I'm not trying to

you know say that the Trump

administration's poopy doopy or this

that or whatever I'm just trying to give

you facts okay I purposefully I try to

stay in the middle politically because I

just I just want to arm you with

knowledge I want you to look at the

1930s the only thing we ended up

achieving was massive anti-americanism

other countries leaving the gold

standard after the tariffs that we

applied not only in the early 1920s the

mid 1920s the late 1920s the early 1930s

oh my gosh we're in a Great Depression

now uh what is the first thing that FDR

tries to do let's remove all the tariffs

and go back to free trade because we've

exported so much anti-americanism and

and you know growth has collapsed this

is bad mind you also that when Argentina

first of all they didn't start a trade

war with everyone but when Javier

Malay you know chainsa spending uh in

government the first thing that happened

is a recession they immediately

plummeted into negative GDP the next

year you know after Javier's election

now this was necessary Javier mle you

know they didn't have a country anymore

right know people say that in the United

States as well but we were nowhere close

to the hyperinflation that Argentina was

facing you know you're talking

3,000% inflation or whatever okay maybe

not that high in Argentina but it was

substantial we we had substantial

currency devaluation and inflation for

Argentina

so what we look at is

historically tariffs are an economic bad

they don't level any playing field they

make things worse okay we we know that

and markets know that that's what

history teaches us lutnick does make a

good argument though that Americans are

suffering and this is true both of these

things could be true it could be true

that Americans are suffering and that

tariffs are bad except ladnik assumes

that tariffs will make the American

suffering less bad but the reality and

this is the irony I want to talk of is

that if you take the lessons of History

tariffs will actually make the suffering

worse before things get better and this

is why I think there's this irony that

it is possible these tariffs drive us

into a recession you actually have

people in a worse situation rather than

just autom manufacturers not having jobs

now all of a sudden 20 million Americans

don't have jobs and other people see

their business sales decline because

there's a recession now all of a sudden

everybody's suffering versus just one

industry of individuals who are out

competed unfortunately by lower wages in

places like in Mexico and Canada that's

globalism now of course this is where

the Trump Administration people like let

Lake are like oh the globalists are bad

that's fine you could argue against

everyone else but a capitalistic economy

looks for the cheapest way to produce

because what happens and letnik doesn't

mention this but what happens when

you're able to produce a Chevy truck in

Canada cheaper than you are in America a

what happens you get to buy a cheaper

Chevy truck all Americans have access to

lower priced Vehicles yes some Americans

lost their jobs to Canadians but all

Americans get cheaper vehicle access so

this is why economically tariffs are

generally seen as bad and and free

markets are generally seen as good

because they lower costs for everyone

free markets are truly

deflationary uh the only reason we

actually experience inflation in an

economy is because we print so much

money and we'll continue to print money

because it encourages more spending and

lending all right and it's politically

popular too let's listen to the passion

here though you can't argue his passion

his passion is right on

economically like this is why I say I

said at the beginning of video he's a

great salesman an economic

dunce didn't want to cry why why is it 7

years lower it's not the air we breathe

it's not the food it's oh seven years

lower is just a reference to why is uh

uh the life expectancy of somebody with

a high school degree seven years lower

than somebody who doesn't somebody who's

like college educated he he does give a

passion impassionate answer here and I

actually agree that our school system

sucks you know that I ran for governor

on fixing our schools it's not the

medicine it's despair if I'm moving your

factory where your grandfather worked

and your father worked and you planed to

work and I moved that factory to

Canada your life is ruined

drugs alcohol and suicide and then

fentel comes in and finishes the job I

hear what you're saying great

salesman and so him saying this first of

all I know there are people going right

on man I'm pissed my jobs my family's

jobs went to Canon rightfully so you you

deserve to be pissed but is the solution

careening us into a recession to apply

what history has already told us is

quite frankly stupid economically dumb

and this isn't to argue that oh we

shouldn't have fair trade we should have

free trade on all

angles wielding tariffs as a way for

free to achieve free trade historically

just doesn't work but again we're just

referring to the fact of history and

trying to apply who knows maybe maybe

this time will be different Donald Trump

is going to end it he's going to rebuild

those communities he's going to rebuild

it and you know the statistic you're

going to see that's going to make the

most difference the average life

expectancy of our Workforce is going to

be equal and that is going to be because

they're going to have a better life

under Donald Trump how are you going to

convince manufacturers to bring

factories back to the US if you don't

show them consistency that you have a

tariff plan and it's not going to change

tomorrow or the next day but it's a

wellth thought out plan and it's going

to remain in place Donald Trump said

from the beginning reciprocal tariffs

how you treat us is how we will treat

you what people don't understand but

then he said it's all open for

negotiation and if somebody brings him a

deal you might pull it off no no

reciprocal tariffs are the Baseline and

the countries of the world like Europe

has a 20% vat yeah countries like Europe

oh

lutnick okay okay we get it yes other

countries have tariffs on us and some of

Trump's work some of it will lead to

lower tariffs in other areas over time

as we get closer to free trade maybe we

just have to break a bunch of stuff and

then sit down like mature adults and get

free trade everywhere maybe this is a

means to an end and I think this is why

letnik says hey if we have to go through

a recession it's worth it the irony that

I see is a high possibility if this sort

of of ridiculousness kind of keeps going

on uh in markets is we actually end up

inducing a recession that causes so much

damage to Americans over the the longer

term I don't think this is like

everybody in 05 is like oh it's going to

be a quick recession in hindsight it

actually was you know eight 18 months s

it's just not that bad of a recession of

financial crisis in terms of length Doom

bubble was worth at worse at three years

and then of course you've got you know

lost decades like what you saw in Japan

or the Great Depression where you've got

a Whole Decade of loss or if you bought

stocks at the peak of the bubble and the

AI bubble or sorry AI bubble Freudian

slip of the dotcom bubble uh you know it

took you 10 years to make your money

back that was just to make your money

back not to make a return on your money

but anyway the irony here is that

there's so much damage that's caused

that people actually end up electing a

bunch of Democrats because they recoil

against the the policies that have

occurred here you get a democratic sweep

in four years and then all of a sudden

the lower tax benefits and the corporate

Investments coming out of a recession

end up supporting growth again in the

American Stock Market and for jobs and

people and then you know that again

could be an ironic outcome just because

of the turbulence that's created from

from things like these tariffs now JB

Morgan had an interesting argument this

morning and I talked about it with my

course members and as we wrote Our Alpha

report out uh we talked about how

there's a likely move to fade any

rallies and we want to be careful of

this so JP Morgan's like like hey it's

too much uncertainty any bump you get in

the stock market fade it sell it it's

interesting we were sitting in our

course member live stream this morning

and as the bell hit I said watch Tesla

go to 250 do not buy it at 250 hash #

not personalized Financial advice but

don't buy a put right before wait for a

little bit of a breakout and then you'll

see a fall that's usually how this trade

plays out and this is all before it

actually happened right and then what

played out oh how interesting we broke

out you don't want to buy it before cuz

then you get stopped out you buy it when

you lose and sure enough you lost this

whole range here you went to retest and

you could have played the game

again so lines are at Play Again these

are the things we like to talk about in

the course member live streams in our

Alpha report we kind of go through our

historic volatilities and trade ideas

for the day but anyway well another

thing that we analyzed is we said look

the NASDAQ is up you know 1.8% at open

and I look it's it's extremely rare for

the NASDAQ to close up more than 2 and

1/2% and so I argued there was more

downside ahead at open than there was

upside because there's just a ceiling

that we're going to hit on on Naas

growth it usually just grows slower uh

and sure enough uh that so far that's

what happen that's happened but these

are again join us in the course member

live streams by the way many of you were

asking for and we're probably going to

release it within the next day or two uh

sort of like a one month trial option

where you pay a very small amount just

to see like is it right for you uh or or

maybe a monthly option we're still

working The Kinks out on exactly what we

want to offer there I'm taking your

feedback so leave me a comment with what

you I'm I'm trying to make sure we can

provide Great Value while also um having

it be accessible so consider that leave

me a comment so uh you know what else

well Merill is actually very bullish

which is interesting see Merill formerly

meril Lynch now at Bank of America

Merill suggests that the Tailwinds of

our economy still support large

companies they site global economic it

is picking up uh they say that

manufacturing is moving back into

recession though they don't acknowledge

that manufa sorry manufacturing is

moving back into expansion though they

don't acknowledge that the reason

manufacturing might be moving back into

expansion is because of the pull forward

of tariffs no mention of that at all

which kind of makes me scratch my head a

little bit how could you miss that but

anyway they argue that consumer service

spending corporate investment and

Manufacturing are supportive of of

expansion that Europe is benefiting from

Chinese growth and that the broadening

of the market is still and well they see

a healthy consumer which I also question

uh and they recommend incorporate growth

and value stocks balance and they're

slightly overweight equities personally

when when they have those sort of

critical Mistakes by not at least

mentioning the Tariff pull forward and I

don't know where they're getting this

idea that the consumer is presently

still healthy especially in the face of

the write Downs that we're seeing from

Airlines Kohl's Best Buy Target Wallmart

like these are all consumption warnings

and they're ignoring those so it does

sort of make me SC scratch my head and I

don't know if I can trust y'all but okay

whatever uh Goldman Sachs is worried

about credit spreads potentially

widening uh they they suggest that that

could lead to a potential shock in the

economy and this is true that is

actually what we're most at risk of is

is not like you know a day-to-day Trend

in a certain direction we're at most

risk in my opinion of some sort of

substantial shock uh a Japanese carry

trade uh some other Black Swan and then

that actually forces layoffs which then

pushes us into a recession that's the

greatest risk in my opinion I I can't

say that just tariff volatility is going

to do that and I actually don't think

that markets as I said on on Monday when

we had a lot of tariff volatility I

don't actually think that

tariffs uh or or the market is pricing

in recession at the moment I think that

uh if we were pricing in recession bond

yields would be way lower than 4.3% on

the 10 year we're not the market is not

pricing in a recession right now uh and

the spread between the two and the 10 is

like 32 basis points that is not

recessionary Spread recessionary spread

would be you know 100 100 plus basis

point spread certainly at least 50 uh

but more likely a shock to over that 50

to 90 range that I always talk about and

you'd have some large spike in credit

spreads not only the the 210 spread but

also risk spreads corporates topic for a

different video uh so we're not seeing

that yet which does mean if we need to

price in recession risk there's probably

more downside because it's not priced in

but then again maybe we won't have a

recession you know treasur Steve

treasury secretary Steve minian was on

this morning goes people are

overreacting there's no chance of

recession all right uh this is an

interesting article Tesla investor

survey shows 85% believe Elon Musk

politics are having a negative or

extremely impact negative impact on the

company ah small small sample size on

CBC yeah whatever

you know I was actually debating with

Zero Hedge this morning a little bit on

on X I encourage you to follow me there

uh just because when I see news updates

I sometimes I'll throw things on there

uh and you know like that comes out

sometimes a little bit before I can make

a video on

it but um what's interesting is uh well

two things Jim Kramer no longer allows

replies on X which I thought was kind of

interesting but if I go to replies I

replied to a Zero Hedge story here where

they said Tesla q1 earnings should be

quite should be strong quite strong and

what they did is they put up this image

here by Tesla by rivian by elcid by a

Mercedes by a Porsche and they show this

explosion of by Tesla on the right and

uh I replied and said sarcastically

obviously if only there was a reason why

by Tesla could be soaring in Google or

news results and so I wrote Trump buys

Tesla and you get the explosion so

obviously there's a heavy weight of of

uh of these search results being skewed

to everybody going what Trump bought a

Tesla yeah so that's that's uh a little

skewing there now Zero Hedge replies if

only there was a reason companies spend

on marketing and to that honestly like

touche uh you know I guess these things

uh spending to to buy uh advertising

from the White House is a form of

marketing and In fairness that is what I

asked Elon Musk to do why not advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes why not

adver so I mean

touche Kevin they're just doing what you

asked them to do they're

advertising I'm like oh damn that's

right uh no it's it's like hey you know

there's an old saying no press is bad

press right so this there's no doubt uh

you're getting a lot of press at Tesla

right now in fact I'm pretty sure the uh

the cyber truck is it the Cyber truck uh

uh X account just uh just tweeted uh

living in everyone's

uh head

rentree it's honestly kind of a good one

uh take a look at this uh where is it oh

there it is living in everyone's head

rentree it's true uh very very true and

then of course you got AOC over here

everyone needs to call their Democratic

senator right now they're starting to

Cave tell them vote no on clure vote no

on the Republican spending bill today is

The

Showdown uh AOC wants the government to

shut

down all right AOC so uh yeah wow well

quite interesting day eh well we'll see

how it all goes thank you so very much

for being here oh Pokemon Go Games unit

sold to Saudis for $3.5 billion damn

anyway all right folks see you all in

the next one appreciate you all being

here good luck out there goodbye why not

advertising these things that you told

us here I feel like nobody else knows

about this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin paffrath there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take