Get Ready | -40%.

This has been what's gotten me so

excited about the market to the upside.

I had a call in the Me Kevin Alpha

report that we were going to go to $615.

Uh, and I have to say I'm I'm pretty

impressed that we got within less than

$2 of that. We got to $61318. But that's

because we had no catalyst and this

changes quickly because we literally

went from no catalysts after Powell.

Nothing. Like not only did we have no

catalyst to worry about, but we were

literally like, man, if the government

shuts down, they're literally going to

take away even more catalyst. Like we

won't get CPI on time. We won't even get

a jobs report, right? So those catalysts

went away. Now, post taco, which don't

get me wrong, we had a glorious taco. I

mean, we made taco charts. I asked my

designer to make a beautiful version of

my taco chart, which was nowhere near as

beautiful as this one, but we are at an

8.2 out of 10 on the taco chart at

meetke.com/data.

I put some other things on here as well,

like I put uh you know what what are the

odds of a tariff rate on China between

60 to 100% on November 12th? These odds

have plummeted now just 6%. So, this is

sort of the market accepting the taco.

Will the federal government be shut down

for uh 10 to 29 days in 2025? This is

starting to fall because people are

betting that the government's going to

be shut down longer. So, I'm just

putting some trackers here which I think

are useful. But understand now we

actually have a lot of catalysts coming

up and this is going to be something we

have to watch because Bessant now

expects that Donald Trump is going to

meet Xiinping. So, we're basically now

getting the fullblown positive catalyst

of, oh, okay, they're going to meet and

everything's going to be okay. But

markets usually just price in, oh, we're

going to meet and everything's going to

be okay. And we don't actually price in,

well, what if they meet and everything

is not okay, right? Then you've got

Powell tomorrow. Powell speaks at NAB

tomorrow. He's the keynote speaker. And

every Fed speaker talks tomorrow, like

almost tomorrow and the next day. Uh,

we've got Zalinsky coming to Washington

on Friday, which is probably when he's

going to get his tomahawks. Like, he's

probably coming to Door Dash tomahawks

for Ukraine, which is going to create

some geopolitical tensions, maybe even

oil up on that. Uh, you got CPI coming

out in 11 days. You got the Fed meeting

coming out in 13 to 14 days. Maybe we'll

get a double jobs report, which I think

would be bad. Like, imagine you get a

double jobs report. I think this would

be the it would be a horrible moment.

like you'd probably get TLT 100

instantaneously if you got a double jobs

report which would be September and

October combined getting released maybe

at the beginning of November and you get

this double jobs report and it

potentially leads to emergency cuts from

the Fed. Maybe not. Maybe we'll confirm

a soft landing. But the point is all of

these catalysts on top of earning season

starting this creates some reason to at

least be a little nervous. maybe start

thinking about like at least some

deleveraging. Right? So, this is where,

like I always say, I tell my, you know,

course members in the ME Kevin

membership, hey, like I'll let you know

when I start tripping a little bit. But

what I want to pay attention to is Rahul

Bal. Uh, he had a really good post this

weekend and I thought it was interesting

because it actually tells us, hey, don't

worry, maybe everything is fine. And I

wanted to look at some of the charts

that he had because he had a great

thread. So, uh, let's go look at his

thread here. He writes, "No, it's not a

bubble in tech stocks. We are less than

one standard deviation from trends." And

I'll tell you what the Achilles heel of

this entire analysis is because I

actually think he did a great job uh

doing this analysis. I just think

there's one Achilles heel that he didn't

talk about. Uh, and it's the most

critical Achilles heel, which is great.

Well, I mean, like the impact of it

could be great. It the Achilles heel is

not a great thing. So, he writes, uh, we

are less than one standard deviation

from trend. You can see what a bubble

looks like in the late 1990s when we

exploded out of a decade log regression

channel. basically when we got, you

know, overvalued. Log logarithmic scale

just basically like chills the chart out

a little bit. We're oversimplifying

here, right? Okay. So, we exploded out

of the channel. Part of this was because

a lot of companies with very few

earnings were actually like in the tech

index and tech the whole tech index was

pretty new back then. This isn't the

Achilles heel, but it's worth knowing

like the tech index, the NASDAQ was so

sensitive to tech because that was the

first time we actually had tech in the

tech index. I mean, yeah, technically

you had Apple and stuff like that in the

earlier years, but let's be real, the

tech boom was here, dot bubble, so it

was a an immature index, right? That's

why it doesn't go back much further than

that. Anyway, then he writes, but PE

ratios aren't uh or at bubble

valuations, he says. uh the narrative

doesn't take into account the fact of

the debasement of what's happening with

prices uh and uh of prices getting

debased more than earnings. So basically

if he says prices get diluted 11% GDP is

2% PE rises by 9%. He's basically making

this argument that companies are able to

be more efficient take more to the

bottom line therefore we could justify

higher PE ratios over time. I don't know

if I agree with this. I think it again

also not the Achilles heel. It's a good

argument. It's it's it's great and it'd

probably take a whole video on its own

to really break it down. It's a decent

argument though. This idea that over

time, hey, because of debasement,

companies become more valuable. This is

a simple way to put it. Owning assets

like real estate or shares of

corporations is almost always going to

be more valuable than holding dollars.

And I completely agree with that. I want

my money out of dollars as quickly as

possible. But do keep in mind there is a

balance to where you want some dollars

because dollars are also the best call

option that exists in the world.

Dollars, as Warren Buffett tells us, are

a call option on everything with no time

expiration. Think about that for a

moment. Call options on every asset in

the world with no expiration date.

That's kind of nice, especially for

people who have really good ideas on

call options, but then maybe their

timing is off or their sizing is off or

whatever, right? Uh so, continuing on uh

with the chart, we've got BTC is less

than one standard deviation from trend.

It usually hits two standard deviations

when there's sort of excess euphoria

like it did here in 21 or 2017. He

argues that the business cycle has been

lackluster so far. Although I think he,

you know, this is also not the Achilles

heel. I don't think he's accounting for

the fact that you might have this might

just be part of the whole downtrend of

this last up. What he's arguing in his

post is, oh well, we go up then we go

down, so the next cycle should be up,

but we're consolidating evenly here. We

might actually be about to break down on

the ISMs. So, I don't think that's the

best chart over here. uh which in turn

is driven by lower liquidity needed to

add uh to the US as uh you know whatever

he's talking about liquidities. The

issue here is we in my opinion have more

dollars that exist today in circulation.

Obviously, we saw the inflation and the

money printing, but they're not just

flowing into normal things like the S&P

500 or the NASDAQ. They're flowing into

leveraged funds. And this is probably

the first cycle we are lit Vance

interview just got cut off on ABC after

tense exchange. Oh, that's going to be

entertaining. But anyway, you got to

think about this money today. there's

more money and a lot of it we don't even

know how much is going to leveraged

ETFs. This is going to be the first

cycle where we actually see the pain of

not tracking leveraged ETF exposure

because we track margin debt which is at

all-time highs but what happens when we

actually factor in leveraged ETFs to me

not good things. Uh okay. Uh so then we

have thus the bulk of liquidity is

delayed and forward-looking indicators

suggest it lies ahead. and financial

conditions give us a 3-month lead. Fine,

it's bullish. That in turn leads ISMs.

So, he argues global liquidity is going

to lead ISMs to break to the upside.

Honestly, like I said, I think he did a

great job with the thread here. Uh, and

that all drive numbers go up. NASDAQ has

a slight premium currently, but that's

normal at this phase of the cycle. BTC

usually decouples at this point in the

cycle as well to the upside. So,

obviously, his whole thread here is

bullish BTC. We're about to break up to

the upside. Bullish NASDAQ. You're

paying a little bit of a premium, but

it's worth it right now. We're not in a

bubble. Everything's fine. I hope so.

But there's the one Achilles heel he

forgot in this whole damn thing. And the

fact that he doesn't mention it is sad.

You should already know what it is. You

should be screaming at your screen or

your phone or whatever it is going,

Kevin, I know exactly what it is. It is

the coupon code expiring called the

Schumer siesta at meetke kevin.com where

you can get lifetime access to the meet

Kevin membership. No, it's not actually

that. It's actually what happens what

drives corporate revenues. What drives

earnings per share? Obviously business

is expanding. Now there are two factors

that go into that and this is still not

the Achilles heel. One is theopium. the

opium factor that we are going to see AI

drive productivity. But what happens if

AI doesn't actually drive productivity

on net instead AI drives productivity

for the people who know how to weaponize

it and then everybody else loses their

jobs. Think about that for a moment.

See, there are people who truly think

that artificial intelligence can replace

their job. Those people are probably

going to lose their job. Then there are

other people who know how to weaponize

AI. They know how to use AI because they

use it for cold temperature tasks. They

use it to ideulate on warm temperature

tasks, but they know not to take on warm

temperature tasks it for granted. We're

releasing new lectures in the the Me

Kevin membership, by the way, talking

about this difference and how to

weaponize AI versus letting somebody

else weaponize it against you. He has

some really cool examples, even legal

examples, real legal examples. It's

really fun. But understand what again

this thread is missing is exactly what

I'm leading to. Now before I lead to

that, I I want to remind you that if you

go to uh investing.com, they've got

their prosale going on, their flash sale

going on right now. And uh the reason I

bring that up is because if you go to

investing pro, this is what I get so

excited about, and you look at a

company, you could get their forward

earnings if you have their Pro Plus

membership. I'm a big fan of this. Yeah,

I'm also sponsored by them, but that's

because they got their flash sale going

on and you can get an extra 15% off if

you use coupon code me Kevin. Now,

what's really exciting about this is

what drives earnings here, folks. Well,

what drives earnings?

Jobs, people having money. That's what's

missing from Raul's threat is first of

all, he probably doesn't have the

investing pro plus membership, which

yes, #sponsor, but is amazing because

they've got their flash sale going on

between now and Wednesday. So, really

encourage you using that coupon code me

Kevin. You can actually use uh this

forecast tool uh to understand where

these earnings are showing up for

companies and what works out. We

compared it by the way in to the I won't

mention any names but certain like

terminal software where people pay like

30 grand a year and it's pretty dang

similar which is amazing that you could

get these earnings forecast but think

about that when we factor in Raul's uh

thesis he didn't talk about jobs at all

what happens if AI is super productive

for some people but it doesn't actually

drive revenues instead what it does is

it makes existing people more productive

which means you need fewer people that

creates a really ugly negative cycle. So

think about this in in a more clean

line. Okay, let's do this together here

because I think there's a lot of value

in understanding when when people are so

bullish sometimes they do miss you the

forest for the trees. So what do we have

here? Look at this. you start with AI is

productive for some. Okay, this doesn't

necessarily mean a biz makes more money,

right? Like, are you going to sell more

Caterpillar tractors because of your

workers and human resources being more

productive? No. But you need fewer

workers. Those people get laid off. What

ends up happening when those people get

laid off? earnings per share at

companies like Cake or Dave and Busters

or, you know, whatever go down. This

isn't a surprise. I mean, even look at

like Dutch Bros, for example, right?

Earnings go down. This is also why I'm

so excited about seeing where the

market's head is and why I put this

banner up here because we could see

where the market's head is on earnings

expectations for companies using

Investing Pro. Uh, and then uh here,

let's do an example here together. I

don't know. Let's let's pick Bros for

example. You can also see what's going

on with their earnings revisions. Look

at this. So, if I go to Bros., you could

oneclick a PDF here. And this is what's

so exciting about them. Go down over

here. Look at this earnings revisions.

EPS revisions. You can see they're

starting to trick up trickle up over

here on the right after coming down

substantially after uh um what's it

called? The uh the Trump the Trump

liberation. Uh but a lot of those

impacts are still potentially to be felt

and I think Raul mentioned nothing about

this and this is where again people have

this mindset that oh AI is going to

create keep pushing this boom of chip

sales and that great so who wins in this

case who wins

the rich get richer the rich get richer

that's just unfortunately how it works

over and over again these companies are

able to do more with fewer people the

rich get richer

the rich earn more money and everybody

else loses. I mean, think about this. If

you had a company with 10 employees and

you make $10 million of revenue, okay,

we're just going to make an example here

together. So, so this makes as much

sense as possible.

Now, enter AI. All right. So, AI comes

in.

Uh, you can do the work of 10 with five

people. Okay. So, you lay off five. You

lay off five people. Your company

revenues. Company revenues still 10 mil,

right? But you did it with half of your

human labor. That's going to take

that'll take a long time to show up. Uh

but when it does, it's going to suck. Uh

so, that's that's the Achilles heel of

this analysis. Now, does that mean this

is going to roll over very soon?

Maybe not.

But let's just put it this way. We're

we're setting up for a lot more

catalysts over the next few couple

months here than what we've had over the

last uh three weeks. The last 3 weeks

we've been in a really fortunate

situation. We've been straight up uh

obviously since uh since April, which is

where we first started advocating for

trailing stops. If you had trailing

stops over here, you would have been

riding the market all the way up. Now

though, we have new catalysts to deal

with, a lot of catalysts to deal with,

and I'm most worried about a double jobs

report and then a potential subsequent

deleveraging. So, it's not saying be

bearish immediately. But what it's

saying is, hey, if you've got a bunch of

debt outstanding, you know, you've got

margin, don't get rugged like some of

the people did this weekend. Did you see

what people were writing this weekend on

social? I don't know how much of it is

like bull crap. I spend very very very

little amount of time actually looking

uh on any kind of scrolling sites. But

uh like here this guy, you know, this

guy was echoing some of what we saw this

weekend. I don't know where this guy is

from. Jake Jakey from Super Kick. He's

got kicked down, but whatever. People

legit lost their whole portfolio.

Biggest liquidation event in history.

And then basically Trump says, "Never

mind. All good." 48 hours later. Insane.

I mean, he's got a point. He's got a

really good point here that, you know,

people did get screwed here by what

happened over the weekend. But it's not

just that. It's the insider trading that

you had. The insider trading that we had

was insane with people minting hundreds

of millions of dollars on insider trade

shorts with crypto wallets opened up

just moments before this news drops.

It's almost like they're sitting in the

Oval Office going, "All right, everybody

get their bets in. All right, let's send

the to the the truth social or or

probably goes more like uh you know

Trump pulling something like a all

right, I'm going to schedule this truth

to go out, you know, and people are

quickly setting up their trades. I mean,

like I don't know how much of this stuff

is true, but look at this guy. Today was

the worst day of my life financially.

Over $9 million gone instantly. Typic

typing this feels like ripping open a

wound that's still bleeding. But I'm

posting it because this space needs more

honesty. You see wins, the 100x calls,

the yachts, but you rarely see what

happens when the market humbles you. It

wasn't a rug. It wasn't a hack. It was

me. Overconfident, overexposed that the

market did what it always does. Reminded

me who's in charge. I wasn't gambling

with crazy leverage. It was a quote safe

play. The one that can't go wrong until

it does. One bad trade, one liquidation

wick, and boom, 9 mil erased in seconds.

The truth is no one is untouchable, you

know. And it wasn't just this. There was

another guy, too. Where did I have it? I

think I bookmarked it here somewhere.

There was another guy who had uh Yeah,

here it is. This guy, I don't know,

sounds very similar, but he says, "I

thought about taking my own life

multiple times since. I can confidently

say my mom saved my life by answering my

phone call at 3:00 a.m. on a random

Saturday. I owe my life to my Lord and

Savior Jesus Christ." And he's basically

talking about how he got fully

liquidated, you know? So, it's it's the

leverage, man. Leverage, leverage,

leverage. If there's one thing I could

just say to people, take like recognize

that as humans, we are when things are

going good, we are going to naturally be

greedy. We're going to have that we're

going to be looking at our margin

accounts. We're going to be like, damn,

bro, I'm almost max margin or whatever

it is. We're going to look and be like,

"Oh crap, almost max margin." But then

the candles are green, you know? Then

you look, it's like, "Ah, the cues are

up 2%. Dude, I'm making so I'm printing

money on margin." But you like Friday

was a wakeup call. Look how quickly the

market tanked on Friday, dude. The Q's

were down almost 4%. If you were in on a

leveraged Nvidia position, let's say,

you were down 10 to 15% on the largest

company in the world in the span of a

few hours. And that's just on one well

technically on two truth social posts.

So, imagine when [ __ ] actually hits the

fan. Nvidia on a leveraged ETF position,

not considering options, just a 2x or 3x

leveraged ETF uh Nvidia position would

have sent you down 10 to 15%. On two

truth social posts, imagine the pain

when we get a double bad jobs report or

like, oh my gosh, wait a minute, we

haven't been paying attention to the

Achilles heel. So, you know, I'm not

here to be bearish. Trust me. Look, I

got a bullish price target on MP

Material in the course member liveream.

Uh, and we are about to hit it. Like,

this is insane. MP material, we've been

tracking this one for quite a long time.

We're about to hit the bullish catalyst

and the me Kevin membership uh or or of

the price target, which is way sooner

than I thought, but it like wow,

we're almost at my target.

Now, I have longer term thoughts on that

like is that a profit take? You know,

what to do? We talk about that in the me

Kevin membership. Remember, you could

join using uh Schumer Siesta. Did we add

Siesta to the soundboard? If we haven't

added the Siesta to the soundboard, we

really ought to. I don't think we added

the Siesta to the soundboard. That's

unfortunate. Uh I I do have a breaking

news thing I could play.

Put that on. Does that work? No, it's

not working. All right. So, I'll just

put the hat on. It's all right. So,

coupon code Schumer Siesta. But anyway,

uh yeah, I think that's like that's what

the bulls are missing right now, right?

And that's probably that doesn't make me

bearish, but it does make me unwilling

to be full margin. Like if you go to uh

the was it meat.com/data? We just made

this the taco chart, right? Uh the taco

chart. If you go above the taco chart,

we still need to update the bull bear

scale because this is supposed to be at

a 10. So we made a little mis the

designer made a little oopsies over

here. But I'm actually like the little

bare bull scale. I put it at four out of

three out of 10. So, it's actually

probably more of an orange over here.

And the idea here is like in the

mid-range, the goal is you could be

bullish, but just don't go crazy debt.

Like the time to go full bull, full debt

is when the market's like low low. Like,

as an example, when I bought in March of

2020, I refinance everything. I go buy

like crazy. or you know at the end of

2022 when I sent out an alert and I'm

buying chip stocks you know of which you

know Nvidia is up like I don't know

what's it up now 100x or something like

that 10x I can't remember cuz it's up a

lot uh it's probably more like a 10x but

anyway it's up a lot

you know that's great like those are the

times to to lever up but anyway so uh

okay that's u a little bit of insight in

terms of where we sit bond market is

closed today. Obviously, we expect the

bond market will open up again tomorrow,

so we'll get a little guidance. We did

get a drop on the bond market uh on

Friday. Uh this will probably go up a

little bit. Uh and I'm curious where our

102 spread goes. Our 102 spread should

be stable tomorrow because we're not

really getting much shock out of this

whole Trump thing. Uh because there's so

much hope that oh, okay, yeah, Xiinping

and that they're still going to meet.

Everything will be fine. All right.

Well, we'll see what ends up happening,

I guess. oil still under 60 on that

western blend though. Pretty pretty

incredible. So, uh, very very very

interesting. Uh, anyway, okay. Uh, that,

uh, that gives us a little bit of a

thought on bulls versus the bare thesis

and the Achilles heel of the market. Why

not advertise these things that you told

us here? I feel like nobody else knows

about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you. Kevin Praath there, financial

analyst and YouTuber, Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.