Tesla | It's Over - Why Tesla Stock is SKYROCKETING

Tesla stock is rocketing today for two

very distinct reasons plus a third which

is awesome. Uh but let's talk about all

of these. The very first is uh Elon Musk

gave a hint that potentially Tesla semis

could be set for volume production next

year. Now a lot of people are quite

skeptical about Elon Musk's time frames.

So, I think this has less of a

contributor to why Tesla stock is

rallying as much as it is today. Uh, but

it could be one of the things that is

contributing. Uh, here's Elon Musk's

comment. He says Tesla Semi will be in

volume production next year. This

obviously comes as they are building out

the Nevada facility. Uh, and you know,

we've been hearing about construction

for this buildout and this expansion for

quite a while. And it seems like now the

the framing is done, the facility is

done, the line work is being done, and

uh the facility will be ready to crank

out Teslas as soon as next year. Now,

it's unclear Tesla semis. Now, it's

unclear if the battery technology will

actually catch up. We don't think that

the 4680s are going to be the core

battery that are going to be used for

the Tesla Semi. Uh we think that it's

likely that we're still going to see

some of these Chinese-based uh

batteries, mostly because of cost.

Lithium prices are plummeting. So much

so that even CL is actually pausing

lithium refining uh in China for 3

months, one of the largest facilities in

the world. Uh frankly, because lithium

prices have come down so much, which is

great for Tesla because it's then

cheaper to acquire battery material. So,

uh, this it could be one of the reasons.

I don't actually think it's really the

big reason. It wasn't my motivating

factor for the call that we made this

morning in the alpha report. Now, we we

every day we make multiple calls. Uh,

the number one call we made today was

Tesla to 34758.

We literally labeled it number one. We

said that was the core one. Uh, I gave

it a 48 hour time frame. And frankly,

the reason for it was because of, in my

opinion, a breakthrough review on the uh

robo taxi service, which is critical and

a game changer for uh even even my

impression of uh what's going on with

the robo taxi service. So, we'll talk

about that, but I want you to know, you

know, when I set this alpha report out,

we were sitting in the 330s and we blew

up at open. It's been straight up

towards my line. I thought it would take

about 48 hours to get here. I did think

we'd trend up on the day. I didn't think

we'd as quickly get to this line. Uh but

within 48 hours, uh getting it within,

you know, 4 hours, we'll take it. It was

just awesome. And so, if you want these

sort of calls, make sure you're part of

that Me Kevin report every single day.

It's an alpha report. You get it every

day before the market opens up when the

market is open. Just sign up at me.com.

Pay once, you get lifetime access

forever. Uh okay, so what happened?

Well, what happened was this uh this

channel AI Driver with 135,000

subscribers, they did a really good

video on Robo Taxi. Now, I'm not going

to play their entire video, but what I

am going to do is give you some of the

highlights that I wrote down on this.

So, the highlights that I wrote down on

this were that uh first of all in their

review and they they show the video

plenty of times or they show plenty of

of uh context to to showcase this. They

show the Tesla robo taxi really as a

human style driver likely because

obviously it's trained on human style or

human training data. And so even though

they they're able to engineer some

failures, what I found really respectful

of this review was that they actually

saw various different circumstances of

the vehicle as it's being driven acting

like a human would. Uh where for example

here where this left car, this I thought

was a great example. This left car

really sets up this car turning for a

failure. Uh that is if you just pull

over here and this car keeps driving

straight, you end up having an accident.

It's a very dangerous situation, but

people are trying to be nice. So this

person tries to be nice, stops for that

person, waves them on or whatever. But

if this car just bulldozes through,

you've got a problem. But here you could

actually see this sort of human behavior

where the Tesla robo taxi actually comes

to a stop to enable even though the

Tesla has the right away to enable that

van to complete their left turn maneuver

and keep the flow of traffic going. And

if you watch the full review, which I

think really the second half is the most

useful, which is unfortunate because

they have a 32minute robo taxi review

where I think they did somewhere around

I don't know 60 robo taxi drives or

something like that. Uh way more than

MKBHD honestly, which the MK video, you

know, Marcus Brownley video I was was

okay. Uh I I think he was very cautious

to be very neutral to both Whimo and

Tesla, but there was no real discovery

or investigation in his video. It was

sort of more like I went on a ride and

then I left. Uh whereas like this

creator I thought was kind of ingenious

like purposefully putting a bag in the

way of the Tesla blind spot uh and the

safety driver's blind spot and actually

the Tesla crashes into it. Uh, well,

crashes is maybe an extreme word, but at

the same time, he says he hears the

safety driver go to open the door, and

he found that to be confirmation that

the safety driver opening the door is

sort of like an emergency override to

get the car to stop, which we had all

suspected all along anyway. But, uh,

this was his way of saying that, hey,

like the front camera is not used in

clearly here. Uh and so while that looks

bad, it's like an engineered limited

failure uh that he basically set up,

right? Uh and so that's kind of like the

worst that came out of this. In fact,

out of this video, and this is why I

like the second half so much, they

actually show the vehicle uh in in sort

of extreme edge cases where either it it

safely stops because it doesn't want to

go through a puddle, which previous

times it had gone through, which was a

little overkill in terms of like how

long it waited in this particular area.

But they also showed it uh and again,

you know, watch the whole video

yourself. I thought they the the creator

did a great review on it. They actually

showed Tesla doing a phenomenal drive

through quite rainy environments. Uh

where I thought that the robo taxi

service suspended in rainy environments,

but they actually showed this in I can't

find exactly where the minute is in

here, but they show this driving through

the storm. They show uh the robo taxi

service fully operating in stormy

weather about how uh oh I think that was

it where the AI team had actually worked

very hard on working the robo taxis for

hydroplaning and operating in heavy

rain. I found this very optimistic for

the robo taxi service. Here it is. Look

at this. I found like this very

realistic. So, uh, the creator gives us

a very good overview of, uh, a

human-like driver, uh, in the Tesla robo

taxi, a comfortable and safe experience

to where he even felt comfortable going

to sleep, an experience that operates in

the rain, an experience that's probably

not too far away from the hardware that

we actually use, given that it doesn't

even use the front camera, which was

ironically a more bullish thing. uh and

uh ultimately uh a a safe

and expansionary service that made me

look at this and go, "Wow, this is

actually quite bullish." Because we, you

know, a lot of us are looking at these

robo taxi sort of expansions as, oh,

well, there's a safety driver, you know,

that's a big asterisk. But really, uh I

don't that's not the impression that you

get at all from this video. When you

watch this video, you look at yeah,

there are some extreme edge case

scenarios which you would really expect

in any kind of robo taxi service uh that

have to be solved. But the advancements

they're making with the Tesla robo taxi,

especially in that rainy environment and

when you watch the video, very

impressive. So, I have to say I think

that is actually promoting the stock

much more today than the uh semi-truck,

you know, announcement of a time frame.

The semi-truck announcement of a time

frame to me is just sort of another Elon

time frame commitment. But this robo

taxi video where somebody actually did

some serious testing of trying to push

the robo taxi to its limits and the most

we really got was a robo taxi that

didn't want to go through a flooded area

because the safety driver stopped it and

uh a robo taxi that hit a piece of

luggage that was put in its blind spot.

That's the most we got in terms of like

bad is actually really impressive. And

so, shout out to that YouTube creator

whom I think did a fantastic job on

actually putting together a really good

video and I give them a lot of credit

for

why Tesla is moving the way it is today.

That video is called breaking Tesla's

robo taxi stress test AI driver. So, you

know, subscribe and like. Uh, but uh

yeah, I think they did a good job. So, I

think that's one of the big reasons here

because now, you know, one of the big

objections a lot of folks have had is

that, oh, well, robo taxi won't work in

weird lighting environments or it won't

work in the rain and this clearly

disproves that. Uh, and again, still,

you know, relying on this sort of death

grip safety monitor over here. But

again, I think this is Elon being likely

overly cautious because he realizes, in

the words of Elon himself, that even if

the a Tesla robo taxi so much as injur

somebody's knee, uh, you know, the

mainstream media is going to have a

field day over it where, you know,

thousands of people die. I mean, 45ish

thousand people a year die from regular

car accidents and we never really hear

about them. 45,000 people just as an

example here or for clarity is 123

people a day die due to vehicle

accidents.

123 per day. In 3 days we cover

basically all aviation related deaths in

the United States in a year with autos

which is crazy to think about. Uh

I mean that's that's wild. That works

out to about two per hour. So in about

two hours we cover all of the roller

coaster deaths that happen in the United

States per year which is about three to

four. Uh so Elon's right about that and

I have to say this is optimistic. Now do

we think that this is an economic

gamecher for Tesla? Uh well I mean

stock-wise yes but uh you know how

profitable will robo taxi be and how

long will it actually take to you know

scale out without the expense of these

safety monitors? I mean that could be

another year or two years. I mean we

could be testing robo taxi with a safety

driver uh and dealing with these edge

scenarios for another few years and even

then will there be enough demand to make

robo taxi profitable relative to the

competition of Uber andyft or otherwise?

hopefully uh because I think the service

is actually making leaps and bounds

here. And I personally would rather be

in a robo taxi any day than with an

uncomfortable driver who cares about,

you know, their air conditioned settings

or drives with the window down because,

you know, they want to save a couple

bucks on MPGs or, you know, they drive

aggressively and dangerously. I'd rather

be in a robo taxi any day of the week.

So, broadly bullish here for Tesla. So,

shout out to the Tesla community. This

is a great video. It's a great moment

for Tesla. And I think the the stock is

really moving on a real practical test

of the robo taxi experience versus this

semi-truck announcement, which I I don't

think is really that surprising uh or of

a game or much of a game changer. And

shout out to those of you taking

advantage of the Alpha board uh who were

able to kill it with some gains today.

So anyway, if you want to be part of

that, remember, use coupon code JHole.

That's short for Jackson Hole uh over at

mekevin.com. Why not advertise these

things that you told us here? I feel

like nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.