An Urgent Warning to Investors.

oh man hey everyone meet kevin here this

market is a crazy it's nuts and no i

don't mean crazy and nuts that on

january 23rd i said in a video the

market will likely fall in an additional

20

i was wrong it fell an additional 23

before bottoming out no that's not crazy

it's just mostly lucky but what's crazy

is that on one hand you've got companies

like robin hood amazon and tesla cutting

jobs and google and facebook freezing

hiring and threatening layoffs we're

technically in a recession at least if

you use the technical definition of a

recession and not the political

definition of a recession and company

earnings while are coming in a little

bit slower are still mostly above

expectations leading to large rebounds

and stocks like coinbase up nearly 100

from the time kathy woods sold she

literally dumped about uh 1.3 million

shares and it pretty much doubled since

then the tesla up over 50 from its lows

in the last two months and companies

like uber sofa doordash and cloud fire

were all jumping 10 to 30

after their earnings even companies that

miss earnings like airbnb are seeing

their shy prices just in general rise

after short declines and yet at

all this might seem bad we still have an

unemployment report that came out this

morning that literally came in twice as

hot as expected with more hiring than

expected by the tune of a two-fold a

prior revision up in the amount of jobs

we created so we're getting still more

hiring in an unemployment rate that's

actually falling

yet things are supposed to be bad so

this is really really weird and kind of

leaves us with this feeling of like a

lack of direction are we going up are we

going down what's going on and what are

the two freaking warnings that we gotta

watch out for well we're gonna talk

about those just a side note i have

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boom that might have been a mouthful but

let's talk about warning number one

warning number one is all about data

folks between now and the next federal

reserve meeting on september 21st when

we're likely to see another interest

rate hike the federal reserve has told

us to watch for two major data points

number one jobs we have two jobs reports

between now and when the federal reserve

is likely going to raise rates again

august 5th and september 2nd and we have

cpi readings coming out august 10th and

september 13th and let me just put it

very simply if these readings are bad

the market is going to have to price in

a higher likelihood of the federal

reserve giving us a little bit more of a

spanking because what the federal

reserve is trying to do is drive

interest rates up so that people and

businesses spend less money and feel

less rich

the problem is

this is all going to get worse if the

data that comes in again august 5th

september 2nd august 10th and september

13th jobs and cpi if that data comes in

hot which could mean the economy is

still overheated or doing very very well

and companies and businesses and people

are still spending money like crazy then

the fed's going to have to talk more

dirty to us and it's going to drive the

market down because the fed is mad that

even though the fed is like we need

everybody to stop spending as much money

everybody keeps spending money in fact

according to the economist most people

when asked about the economy say the

economy is bleak and doing terribly but

most people when they're asked about

their own personal finances say

they're doing great way better than they

did in 2019

even with higher gas prices and higher

energy costs people feel great about

their own personal finances and their

net wealth is substantially higher in

many cases than what it was in

2019 right before the pandemic so

what does this tell us about watching

data well first again this morning we

had a crazy jobs report we were

expecting 250 000 jobs to come in and

what did we ended up getting well we

ended up with 528

000 jobs created that is

over two times that is an example of a

hot reading and immediately the nasdaq

went from positive 20 basis points to

negative one percent boom

instantaneously after that hot jobs

report came out but folks that's just

one out of four data sets that we have

coming up the next is the cpi report

which comes out on august 10th where

we're going to be looking for

inflationary pressures and i'll tell you

even the jobs report that just came out

here august 5th didn't help us at all

with job or with inflationary

expectations because we had an average

hourly earnings expectation of 0.3

percent that is wages potentially went

up 0.3

month over month

we missed that they actually went up

0.5

which means rather than seeing an

annualized rate of three point six

percent for job wage growth it actually

came in at six percent annualized that's

bad again telling the fed we got twice

as many jobs and wages are going up

faster than expected this is double bad

on top of that we got the year-over-year

measure which was expected to be 4.9

coming in at 5.2 percent so we literally

got three

hot pieces of data

in the august 5th report but hey we get

to look forward to august 10th next

which is when that cpi report comes in

the cbi report consumer price index this

is how we measure inflation generally

the federal reserve uses a similar one

called pce but we generally watch cpi in

in the public eye

that rhymes uh and here's what's wild in

the last inflation report we had a month

over month increase of prices of 1.3

percent however in the august 10th

report we're expecting that inflation is

only going to move up on a

month-over-month basis by 0.2

now that initially sounds good because

it's like yeah elon musk is right

inflation's going down inflation's

transitory inflation's going to go down

which i have to say i believe that at

some point inflation will go down as

well but just because i believe

inflation will go down at some point

doesn't mean that i can lie to myself or

anyone else and say that we don't have a

problem here well this jobs report this

morning was a problem and what i

personally believe is we've got a big

problem with the cpi report coming up

because if the expectation is that

inflation on a month-over-month basis is

going to be 0.2 percent and that on a

year-over-year basis it's going to go

down to 8.7 percent personally i think

there's a really good chance we're going

to miss at least one of those numbers

that means we might see inflation on a

month-over-month basis come in at 0.4

percent or 0.5 and even though that's

lower inflation than what we've been

used to because last month prices went

up 1.2 percent it's still going to be

higher than expectations it could drive

the market down so you could literally

see the market go down after august 5th

jobs the market go down after august

10th cpi and then we repeat the process

again for jobs on september 2nd and

september 13th and so you have to be

very careful of these dangers

but you also have to be careful of the

very next danger and this very next

danger is one that is probably the most

critical

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description with that said let's get

back to the video now folks the second

big danger and this one's really really

important because folks take a look at

this chart right here this chart might

seem overwhelming let's keep it very

very simple basically if you go all the

way back to the post-war era which is

like the 40s and 50s you're going to

find that there have been very very few

dates or periods of time where the stock

market has gone from

negative seven percent on the s p 500 to

positive seven percent the next month

and folks on screen here are the returns

that you could have potentially seen if

you were in the market at the time

one month out three months out six

months out and 12 months out in time

now what's wild about this is we just

had one of those occur on july 29th we

went from negative seven percent in june

to positive seven percent actually more

than positive seven percent in july

and that sets up the odds that we could

if we're at all average right here see

some substantial returns in the stock

market over the next one three six and

12 months

and this sets up the potential danger

that combines with danger number one

danger number one says if we continue to

get bad reports

we could end up seeing some of these

right here see these two instances where

we actually had red numbers where on the

one month we fell five percent or on the

three month we fell three percent that

could happen again we could see another

test of some of the lows that earnings

right now are really affirming if you

actually go and look at the nasdaq for

example via qqq you could see that we

hit a beautiful bottom on june 16th and

we've retraced over 38 percent from then

but with some of these reports coming in

hot or expected to come in hot we could

quickly see a retracement not just down

to the 318 level for the nasdaq but

maybe even down back to 299 or retest

that bottom at 268 but based on this

chart we should probably be anticipating

green

if we hold and get in and that really

sets up the big next danger which is not

being in this market yes there can still

be bad news but all signs are pointing

to

over time even if it takes a little

longer than expected inflation's

probably going to go down this economy's

still killing it earnings are holding up

spending's holding up jobs are holding

up and yeah that means the fed's going

to talk a little more dirty to us but

all it's going to do is give us more of

a buying opportunity and no i don't just

mean a buying opportunity to get in with

me on my series a or to get in on the

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opportunity in the market and folks if

you found this video helpful do me a

favor hit the like button share the

video and subscribe because we gotta get

back to grow

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you