the worst opportunity cost

such nonsense I really despise this debt

ceiling stuff we deal with this debt

ceiling crap I feel like every year and

it's just such nonsense because it's it

just politicians wanting to make sure

that they that that America knows

they're fighting uh to do the best for

you know what people believe they want

their politicians to do and uh

unfortunately uh that uh that means uh

you end up having this uh uh

brinksmanship and uh populism and that

finger pointing and name calling and

it's it I I I don't know to some extent

I feel conflicted because our founding

fathers wanted uh there to be gridlock

but then we've also walked ourselves

into situations where gridlock sucks

like when it comes to having a literal

debt ceiling where which is stupid

because it's like authorizing payments

twice uh it's it it's really really dumb

if you think about it it's like what's

the point of passing a bill uh agreeing

to spend money if you're just going to

end up holding it up in debt ceiling

negotiations in the future just it

really it it blows my mind uh but uh you

know that's uh that's what we have to

deal with so here we are now I mean I

really believe that nobody is dumb

enough to actually let the uh uh the

United States economy uh tank so badly

by letting a default occur but then

again you know I've seen some pretty

stupid things in politics so I suppose I

won't let myself be too terribly

surprised but um let's just say I'm I'm

uh I'll continue to be hopeful uh I

continue to think this is uh nonsense

the debt ceiling nonsense I I put the

odds at default at well under one

percent uh I I know that would be pretty

wild if we you know we ended up

defaulting but it just it seems so uh

widely

impossible that that I just I can't I

can't see a reason why it would happen

Beyond just again this nonsensical

breaks a political brinksmanship I think

there'd be plenty of uh ways the

treasury just ends up figuring out how

to you know stop making payments for for

a little bit on things that don't matter

like they did in 2011 then you get a big

media spectacle and poop show uh if you

don't remember 2011 basically in 2011

the uh uh the government stopped paying

like TSA agents and park Reps for a

while and everybody was freaking out

because this this idea was like wow man

like seriously government you can't even

pay TSA agents like this is ridiculous

this is a joke and it was so

embarrassing that we had Parks basically

fenced off you know National well like

uh you know federally guarded Parks uh

like the Washington monuments or or

whatever that uh uh that uh politicians

finally figured it out uh but uh you

know the good news is the stock market

is actually doing surprisingly well in

the face of all of this and in my

opinion that's well I mean I don't think

I need to say the the b word I think

I've already been pretty dang clearly

bullish for you know I think I was a

little early with the bullishness but I

think the Nike Swoosh has been something

I've been very consistent with uh and

and people have regularly been asking

you know since since really December and

and uh in January uh and otherwise as as

yields have been high people have been

asking well Kevin you know why bother

being in stocks I can make five percent

on you know my cash and it's true you

can you can make five percent you know

you go to various different platforms

I've actually resisted

talking about where to place your cash

to get yield uh you know whether that's

uh uh like I mean I've I've briefly

mentioned it in in sort of just lists

like oh you know you can go to Robinhood

so far or you go to uh you know what

whatever it doesn't doesn't really

matter but I've resisted wanting to

really make videos about this or or try

to encourage people investing in a way

that uh they're trying to get just cash

yield mostly because when cash yields

are high you have to consider that

you're not really earning five percent

right so you get a five percent yield at

say wealth front what are you actually

getting well you're getting a real

return maybe in the neighborhood of zero

percent right when we could when we

factor out inflation uh but beyond that

what are you actually looking at well

you're looking at let's let's assume

Nation doesn't matter to your cash right

so how could inflation not matter your

cash what do you mean Kevin we've been

talking about this for a year and a half

on the channel inflation doesn't matter

to your cash if you're applying assets

that are going down in value I don't I

personally if I have you know a

household food budget yeah inflation's

going to make that household food budget

go up but if food represents I don't

know one percent of our household budget

then and 99 of my budget isn't affected

by inflation because let's say it's

going into investing in assets like

stocks or real estate or whatever then

if those values go down then my cash

actually becomes more valuable in an

inflationary time not less but

ignore inflation for a moment completely

and let's think to ourselves

if inflation

is zero and we're getting a five percent

cash yield what is the other risk we

face with our cash and this is something

regularly people on the uh you know my

courses have been asking me people and

uh on the channel I've been asking Kevin

why why not just put all my money in on

five percent cash or treasuries

and the the real reality that I I think

is so quickly missed is this phrase I

know everyone here has heard before

everybody's heard it before it should

come as no surprise and so if you're

surprised by what I'm about to say in

terms of why you're able to get this

this yield uh that uh that everyone's

excited about

well it should come as no surprise uh

and that is opportunity cost what's your

opportunity cost well since January 1st

your opportunity cost of being in cash

as opposed to the S P 500 has been 10

percent

that means your Opera like you have

earned 10 on stocks since the beginning

of the year

and uh

the year is not even over which means

hey wait a minute if

we continued at this level your

opportunity costs for a year of the S P

500 could be 20 right now of course with

stocks there's always the risk of the

market going down right that's that's

that's the downside uh if you're on the

right of stocks of course there's a risk

of Market going down uh and then you

could actually have a negative return on

your money but you know look for example

at um two two responses to that first of

all I want to quickly bring up the

NASDAQ the NASDAQ 100

top 100 technology companies in America

is up

27.6 year-to-date that's insane

so you know if you're excited about

earning five percent

congratulations

in this time let's see we're five uh

yeah we're about a full five months into

the year right so we're about 41 of the

way in the year

41.6 into the year uh let's

multiply that by your five percent yield

so so far out of five percent annual

yield you've earned 2 percent

all the way through May 23rd so you've

earned two percent the S P's return 10

The nasdaqs Returned 27 percent

that's what opportunity cost looks like

now yes is it possible stocks can go

down of course it's possible especially

since they've already done so well

but something to remember is and this is

the beautiful thing about owning stocks

the problem with uh options for example

is you have faded a k you get slowly

bled out uh unless of course you're a

seller of options which is is generally

the way to make money with options you

sell options and you become uh someone

who profits off of that Theta Decay but

anyway

if

you're holding stock you don't have to

worry about data Decay you don't care at

all about okay you could just hold the

stock and you ride it up and down so

really to not be in stocks you have to

believe in some form of extreme level of

bearishness that says well you know

we're gonna go into an earnings

recession and everything's gonna be

worse going forward you know I was

trying to read a summary of bare pieces

and uh or or like reasons to be bearish

and I found one it was in a Goldman

actually in a bullish Goldman piece and

we'll talk about it in a little bit but

I I was curious I'm like okay well

what's their bear case and what they did

is they basically put one little

paragraph out for hey like look you

don't have to look far to understand the

bearish narrative so we're just not

going to talk about it uh see so what

they did is look at this they uh right

there for the bear case talk to the

person next to you geopolitics fed error

that would be over tightening or under

tightening uh debt ceiling financial

crisis two recession Rich session that's

the white collar recession credit

stagflation commercial real estate Urban

Divine civil unrest rate Cliffs job you

know jobs stocks first bonds blah blah

blah bad news is in The Ether and is

priced in and I thought that was really

interesting this this uh sorry this

wasn't a Goldman piece that was actually

a Bank of America piece but anyway uh

point of this is really it's like yeah

there's no shortage of like this poop

but the thing that I keep going back to

and it's really what defined

the Nike Swoosh uh before we you know

before the Nike Swoosh actually started

becoming a reality my thesis with the

market uh with with the Nike swooshes

that we would go through a volatile

period of ups and downs and uh that over

time would look like

2022 was it down uh and then you'd have

your up but that up would not be a

straight up it would be a volatile up

and my thesis supporting the Nike Swoosh

before you know just just broadly

zooming out from all of the data was

when does the market feel more fearful

or when did the market seem more fearful

and I mean now we obviously we have the

luxury of hindsight you know as they say

hindsight is 20 20. so it's it's you

know but then again you you know you

know we've talked about the Nike switch

for many months probably just tired of

hearing about now but the point is what

what was sentiment like uh think about

this like yourself for a moment how are

you feeling in uh September or August or

October of last year relative to how

you're feeling now now that's a really

important question and uh I I personally

I try to think about it I go well how

was I feeling and the reality was not

that great because there was no bottom

indication yet there was no bounce off

the bottom we were still free falling

and nobody knew how far things were

going to go you had the Jackson Hole

Summit before we had a little bit of

optimism but boy oh boy after that uh

not great you know I remember when I

launched uh uh my ETF on November 30th

December was actually a really difficult

month because everybody was selling it

was like tax laws harvesting uh and so

it was really remarkable to see just how

much bearishness there was and to some

extent it made sense because we're

looking and saying well we we don't know

where's the bottom inflation hasn't gone

away yet do we have any faith that that

we've actually hit uh Peak inflation and

it's only now that we have this luxury

of looking back that and this is going

to be remarkable to say it but it just

shows that when you're bearish how

quickly things can turn on you

do you realize that it's almost been one

year since we hit Peak inflation

think about let me let that sink in for

a moment it's almost been one year

since we hit Peak inflation

we hit Peak inflation 11 and a half

months ago in about two two and a half

weeks three weeks we will be one year

away from Peak inflation

that's crazy that's absolutely crazy to

think that we are already a year away

basically from Peak inflation especially

since uh inflation has been so Salient

in our lives and and it's create we've

had so much

dare I say fear uh about uh what's gonna

happen you know uh so

look I guess my thinking in all of this

is just that

when you're getting a five percent yield

and you're like look at all this money

I'm making on my cash there's usually a

reason uh and I think that's that's the

important lesson is when you're making

big big big big money so somewhere it

usually comes to an end or it comes with

some form of cost and that's that's not

a bad thing like keep in mind in certain

cases it absolutely makes sense to be

sitting in treasuries uh there there are

some companies that shouldn't be

investing in stocks they shouldn't be

gambling in stocks there's some people

who shouldn't be gambling stocks look if

I if if uh if you're a company that's

going to be buying real estate you

should be in cash right uh because I

know what's going to happen with real

estate I mean think about for a moment

we could talk about real estate a little

bit more in depth a little bit later but

think about it for a moment the 10-year

treasury went from the banking crisis of

3.3 percent all the way to where it is

now basically a 3.7 it's actually higher

my goodness those it's up again

3.746 percent so what's happening oh

interesting the stock market's going up

while yields are actually Rising weird

making real estate more expensive

putting more potential pressure on real

estate we're just now starting to get

those year over year negative numbers

but we'll talk about real estate

differently uh you know maybe somebody

else who shouldn't invest in stocks

would be you know somebody who's retired

who's like dude I I just want to lock in

the 10-year treasury at nearly four

percent and screw it like I just that's

great I don't need any volatility stocks

just give me the money and I'll sit here

and milk the yield that's fantastic

but if you're you know and this is my

opinion this isn't personalized

Financial advice that should be obvious

but you know you never know these days

everybody on the internet seems to get

get upset if you're not like super clear

but

you know if you're uh 18 19 20 30 40

years old 45 years old 50 years old and

you're still going to be working for at

least the next 10 years either by choice

or because you have to

who like if you're mostly just cash

farming you gotta look and go

damn screwed up for the first part of

the year now again that's okay like I

absolutely got back in the stock market

way too early right so yes in hindsight

we could probably all have done

something better now my belief was that

the stock market would pre-price in the

fed's U-turn remember when I sold I said

in January of 2022 that you want to get

back in the market when the Federal

Reserve u-turns because the Federal

Reserve u-turned in 87 uh February of

2009 uh December of 2018 March of 2020

uh you also had the uh March of 2003 I

skipped over that one but every time the

fed you turned and Mark at the bottom of

the market and this was sort of your

broad shift in strategy Mark the bottom

of the market and the market did a lot

better that's obviously led a lot of

people today to say okay but but you

know maybe maybe that hasn't happened

yet and that means the Bottom's still

ahead of us or we know that the problem

isn't actually fundamental finally a

broken economy it's just inflation and

since inflation is basically you know

basically peaked a year ago people like

well as long as the economy can just get

through for a little while longer and

and the FED pauses maybe we didn't

actually over type

so so long and short of it we we my

thesis was okay well if

if the market comes to expect that the

market rallies when the Federal Reserve

u-turns uh and and the entire Market

knows that this time around then what

will happen is you'll actually end up

seeing the stock market recover before

the U-turn under the assumption the

U-turn is coming

and so far that's what's happened that's

actually exactly what's happened so far

which is scary but it also goes to show

like you could not have perfectly

predicted that oh yeah in January the

market was just going to start rallying

again and it would have stuck there's no

way you could have predicted it uh now

of course there was this uh

understanding of like oh well all the

taxos Harvesters jumping back in sure

but nobody thought that would end up

being sustained so

um yeah it's really incredible it's

really interesting so the point of that

is can't be perfect but the other point

of that is you know if you're looking at

your portfolio it's like yeah you know I

know cash was great in 2020 too but boy

it sucked in 2023 that's also

potentially another lesson is usually

the assets that do really really well

one year don't do that great the next

year because fund managers are trying to

find Alpha have you ever heard of the

website Seeking Alpha yeah that's

because they're looking for Alpha

they're legitimately looking for ways to

outperform the market that's what Alpha

is your outperformance of the market

beta adjusted anyway long and short of

that uh it it makes sense to some extent

that's stuff that did really well one

year isn't isn't going to be the next

pitched thing the next year you've all

seen The Wolf of Wall Street right

everybody's seen The Wolf of Wall Street

and what's fascinating about the Wolf of

Wall Street is is um remember when uh oh

what's that guy uh math is it Matthew

McConaughey yeah I think it was

McConaughey he's uh he's like you know

you always have another idea you never

let him out of a trait this is something

like that right uh you always have

another idea that's how I feel like the

you know the real suits on Wall Street

are because but but because they have to

be you know that's not to just back on

suits it's just that's just the business

it's like all right cash did really well

last year

what do we think's gonna do really well

this year well you have to pick you know

okay great it was it was attacking Ai

and stuff that was massively oversold

last year could it continue to do well

maybe just maybe maybe we'll see with

Nvidia earnings which I think is propped

on a pedestal right now A shaky pedestal

uh but we'll we'll have a video on that

probably later today not not from this

live stream

but I expect to make it in video video

uh later today

so uh sort of just an earnings preview

video but anyway uh yeah it's a really

fascinating time and a really

fascinating market and I think it is a

it's always good to sort of self-reflect

you know the nice thing about you is you

know you don't have to be public with

your portfolio and your decisions and

your successes and mistakes it doesn't

matter uh you know celebrate your

successes forget about mistakes and just

move on and and try to do better go for

it it's difficult now because it's like

you know now and this is the conundrum

this is probably the hardest part and I

I feel bad for anyone in this situation

if you've got a bunch of cash you're

like all right Kevin you're right you're

right too much cash have too much cash

what do you buy stocks now you know and

now it's like

well you know anything can happen in the

next uh you know in the next few weeks

here I mean ignore ignore the debt

ceiling for a moment but I mean just

look at like retracement levels over

here it would be very easy for the

NASDAQ to at least go back to 3 30 on

QQQ right which is your your index for

uh or ETF for tracking the index of the

NASDAQ 100. one of them uh you know you

could easily go back to to you know 312

or uh you know can you go back to 290

Pro that's probably a little bit more of

a stretch but look you've you know

you've got some downside yeah we could

go up to 348 but so what's the upside

okay well 348 divided by 330 7.64 you're

at a three percent upside

337.64 divided by if we go to call it

312 okay new numbers 312 divided by

337.2 you know seven and a half percent

downside

like it would be horribly frustrating to

go from cash now to like the NASDAQ and

then it takes down but it'll also be

frustrating to miss it if it keeps going

like this so it's very frustrating and I

think that's another lesson that we want

to think about is when we're in cash the

hardest thing is figuring out well when

do you pull the trigger and deploy

uh you know when when looking at the

stock market

uh because you just just don't know

probably

Vanguard says that statistically the

best thing to do is love some invest but

uh psychologically most people find it's

better to take your cash divide it into

let's say 10 buckets and just DCA dollar

cost average those 10 buckets so you

know you put one ten percent bucket in

and then if the market goes down great

throw in another 10 Market goes down

more another 10 Market goes down more

another 10 Market goes up maybe wait or

go wait whatever right uh so

um

it's it's a really weird time but uh you

know I'm I'm happy I'm grateful that so

far things are going well with this

thesis but I've I you know I want to be

humble enough to say we we don't know

what the next leg down could bring

everybody's talking about a Q3 Q you for

recession if we get sticky inflation

that encourages the FED to hike more or

we have to basically price out the idea

of rate Cuts then maybe there's some

downside if uh if we really are going to

have this earnings recession which I

feel like many companies already had

sure maybe there's some downside but I

don't I'm not convinced that uh an

earnings recession isn't already built

into valuations that we've seen here the

earnings recession seem to be most

feared here and it's almost like markets

pre-priced in the bad earnings of 2023

here you know they got out before 2023

and that's really what we saw widely so

now it seems to be okay you know by the

dip on everything is what it feels like

which I understand to some extent feels

like ludicrous now gosh like how could

you keep by The Damp by the damage it

seems like oh oh oh why while time to do

that and certain last year was this was

I mean look at this okay go back for a

moment to 2009 so where's 2009 oh look

it's it's way way look I'm gonna I'm

gonna zoom out on the month wow okay

we're gonna zoom out on the month on on

uh weeps uh it's gonna take I should

have just left it on the week chart or

whatever it'll come up in a sec but

anyway

um your opportunity to to buy the dip

was fantastic between 2009 and quite

frankly 20 end of 2021 you just buy the

tip and the market just went right back

up within the next month consistently so

buy the dip worked for

what is that 11 12 12-ish years

and then you have one bad year and all

of a sudden everybody's like buy the dip

sucks buy the dip is stupid Nookie to

YouTubers and you buy the chip mentality

it's like ah buy the dip was bad

strategy in 2022. abso freaking lutely

but wait a second wait a sec but the dip

was already back to being great in 2023.

so now you look back and you go hmm is

it possible that one out of 12 years is

a bad buy the dip strategy well I mean

we'll see maybe it'll be two years if

this market ends up being a little poopy

doopy uh you know for longer it's

possible but again here's here's your

chart look at this you know I mean it

didn't matter what debt crisis you know

the debt crisis the last debt crisis was

over here can you even notice anything

on the month chart I don't know maybe

it's a little flatter than they need to

hope maybe you'd hope it was a little

bit more of a perky chart over here but

I mean like okay so there's 2018 when

the fed you turned over here all right

but but other than that on the month

chart you know other than 2022 by the

day it worked really well so it's it's

fascinating to me so this uh this Chase

I I guess it's sort of in summary on

this this part uh the important thing to

remember is there is a real cost to cash

yield and it's the cost of your

opportunity that's a problem see this

and and this is exact you know how many

times I've heard this you know like I'm

not blaming you I'm not blaming you I

know you're just the messenger your name

is literally the messenger I appreciate

you being a channel member over here but

this

this fear over election Cycles I've just

never actually seen it be the Catalyst

for the stock market doing anything in

particular it was never an election that

did it it was the housing crisis of 08

you know the the.com bubble of of

valuation implosion

uh but then look look outside of those

or or covet right but then you look

outside of those 2020 was a really

contested period nobody cared

the stock market had like two weeks of

heart palpitations oh my gosh what if

there's a you know uh uh a contestant

election oh no

body cared in terms of the stock market

2016. oh my gosh Donald Trump won you

know everybody's like Donald Trump wins

we're going Poopers nope 2008 oh you

know if uh the first black man wins the

presidency that's it we're going to the

toilet

you never had a black man before only

had a white man before

no

it didn't matter you know Obama took

office near the bottom of the market

bottom of the market was like February

or March it was February of 2009 he took

office Jan 21. I mean come on if

anything the elections help

uh so it's just you know I think the

news media has us convinced that there's

always a reason to be fearful always a

reason to be fearful now I want you to

know this when it comes to AI

time is what's going to make you money

and if you can prove that value to an

employer you'll always be able to be

employed so this is another way of

making sure that you don't get replaced

foreign