Complete Economic Meltdown | The Crash is Worsening.

hey everyone me Kevin here coming to you

from the Port of Long Beach boy oh boy

we have a crisis the NASDAQ is down

almost a four percent both the s p and

down down nearly a three percent what is

going on with our economy because it

feels like it's collapsing it feels like

the Federal Reserve has absolutely zero

control or even zero clue as to what the

hell they're doing well we've got a lot

to talk about in this video not only are

we going to start by talking about the

fed and rates but we're going to talk

about why they've lost control and we're

also going to talk about what just

happened with the consumer credit

explosion and maybe we'll even touch

about what happened with AMD yesterday

because that was another crisis all

these crises compounding especially

since when you look at the disasters and

the escalation that we're seeing in

Ukraine uh Russia now pushing forward

again more strongly towards the South uh

and in addition to that the Chinese

economy looking even gloomier and

gloomier by the day some folks calling

for a bottom and then it just gets worse

folks I don't even know where to begin I

will say though I am wearing a prayer

potion so maybe it makes it a little bit

better okay let's start with this first

there are now some folks on Wall Street

and this is scary they are now some

folks on Wall Street saying hey um you

know how the feds said that at the end

of 2022 interest rates would lift off

from zero percent and they'd end up at

0.9 that's what they told us a year ago

oh we'll be at 0.9 we'll barely have to

raise rates to constrain inflation

because it's transitory it'll go away

you know and to some extent we still

believe that some of the inflation

caused by the covet pandemic is

transitory some of the issues caused by

China and Ukraine and Russia might not

be so transitory those were as Jerome

Powell told us in February a quote game

changer

well some folks on Wall Street are

saying hey remember how the FED said 0.9

yeah they were wrong then

they're gonna be wrong again

and so then the FED said hey rates at

the end of 2022 probably get slightly

above neutral and we think neutral is

like two and a half percent you know

maybe we'll have to go restrictive just

a little bit for some time we'll go to

like

2.75 and and then we'll be able to pause

and sort of assess and wait for the data

to come in

well then just last month they told us

nah you know what we're actually gonna

go to 4.6 percent

and we're probably not going to pause

we're we're just going to go to 4.6 uh

and then uh you know we might have to go

above that we might not pause so don't

plan on a pause but eventually we'll

pause and when we do we're not going to

U-turn and drop rates anytime soon we'll

stay there for a while okay that's

that's the latest that they told us so

in other words every single estimate

they've given us so far has been wrong

it's coming a lot hotter and stronger

and this is now leading some folks on

Wall Street to say

we are not seeing inflation improve

we're not seeing jobs inflation improve

we're probably going to need the FED to

be wrong two or three more times and

that potentially means Rising rates

raising rates all the way to a Fed funds

rate of maybe close to six to seven

percent

most say that high inflation is never

broken unless the FED funds rate is

actually higher than the nominal rate of

inflation the nominal rate of inflation

right now is 8.1 percent if the Federal

Reserve raised rates to 8.1 percent we

would be in a depression inflation will

go away but we will be in a depression

it will be a complete disaster and it's

already turning into a disaster and

consumers are doing the absolute worst

thing that they could potentially be

doing right now

that is spending more money specifically

on travel consumers are spending more

money on travel they're spending more

money internationally on luxury clothing

they're spending more money on apparel

they're spending more money on cruises

and and going out and just blowing their

money

entertainment spending's going up and so

what happens when you look at people's

credit card bills well you look at

people's credit card and last month what

did we get well we thought people's

credit card bills and their outstanding

debt would go up by 25 billion

economists were wrong once again

debt actually went up 32.2 billion

dollars and if you go look up my last

tweet or one of my last tweets at

realmeet Kevin on Twitter you'll

actually see the chart of the growth of

consumer credit every single month going

all the way back to 1980. and what

you'll notice is the chart has never

been higher than where it is now we're

at insane peaks of consumer credit

growth right now at a time where rates

are skyrocketing and now are estimated

well the market isn't anticipating this

Market is anticipating terminal rates

will be like 4.7 percent but there are

some Wall Street analysts who are saying

hey this is a Fed funds rate is going to

go like eight percent

that's insane fed funds rate goes to you

know six percent even uh I mean eight

percent would just be absolutely

devastating but even six percent which

is where you have a lot more of the the

bearish folks uh estimating right now

six percent that off four and a half's

not gonna cut it we're gonna cross five

and maybe we'll get to six but then

we'll peek out around there that's just

what some of the more hawkish people are

saying nobody's really saying eight with

the exception of the people are like

well historically we gotta get the rate

above what inflation is but then again

maybe inflation will be like 5.9 knock

on wood uh and then we get to six

percent right something like that could

happen but anyway

that's scary and the last thing people

should be doing is getting into debt

more this is absolutely insane like this

is the worst time to be getting into

debt or borrowing for a new car or

buying a home buying a home is like the

worst thing you could do right now be so

stupid Oh that's a nice one uh but

anyway oh it's a little expression

espresso but anyway uh this is so

annoying now they got this giant

announcement going on over here but

anyway hopefully you can't hear it so

what's crazy

is that you are clearly going to be

going into an earnings recession and if

you're holding stocks you need to buckle

up because I'm not encouraging anybody

to sell and I'm not selling I'm buying

but it's painful and as I said in

January this is gonna be a long process

and unfortunately I've been wrong about

the timing right I thought this process

would have ended by now that we would

have seen inflation and inflationary

figures from jobs start rotating down it

might take two or three times as long as

we originally thought we thought okay

this is going to be you know a 9 to 12

month hiking process and then we'll peek

out uh and then inflation will finally

come down and the FED can relax it's

just not looking that way so while it

could still happen you know maybe

inflation will still peek out at the end

of this year and and maybe the bottom of

the market will come which the bottom of

the market usually comes six months

before uh the bottom of earnings that's

really important to keep in mind six

months before the bottom of earnings per

Goldman Sachs is usually when you see

the market actually bottom but anyway is

it like

we got to be a lot more patient than we

anticipated I think calling for and it

could still happen but I think calling

for oh we're definitely going to see an

end of the year rally oh we're

definitely going to see a Tesla rally

q3q4 I think those are mistakes and you

know those are things that I've said uh

you know obviously without guarantees

but but like everything's just taking a

lot longer to get where we want it uh

and and uh the the pain is lasting a lot

longer as well so we have to be more

patient and willing to survive the pain

uh for a lot longer so what does that

mean it means staying away from margin

let's look at amds or or really debt

that could take us out like you got to

be a survivor in these times let's look

at what AMD just announced AMD and we

talked about this this morning in our

course member live stream which remember

to join use that coupon code down below

uh if you look at my Twitter story

you'll see my Shopify complaints it's

like absolutely ridiculous how long it's

taking to get this this one product that

we're trying to launch up on Shopify

it's just totally ridiculous customer

service sucks to Shopify I think they're

cutting because they're so bloated you

know after I started using Shopify I I

got actually initially excited because

of all the bells and whistles they say

they have I got initially excited about

the Shopify earnings and I look and I go

oh my gosh this is a terribly bloated

company barely growing revenues for the

valuation where it is and they need to

lay off staff and I think that's what

they're doing the customer service

department is a complete disaster but

anyway AMD which we analyzed this

morning in the course member live stream

also a complete disaster we looked at

their preliminary numbers and oh my gosh

they're they're PC division is

plummeting that's their processor

division so people are buying less PCS

we're starting to see cracks in servers

data centers and servers and integrated

chips and while they're still growing

some the growth is slowing starting to

see cracks there and the PC division is

not crypto crypto is the gaming division

that was actually flat quarter over

quarter uh but quarter over quarter and

year over year you had a complete

collapse of pro the processing division

terrible and part of that is because a

people are buying less but the other

part is because we're still having

supply chain crises and this is what

brings up how the Federal Reserve is

failing so the Federal Reserve cannot do

anything about nightmares here they

can't do anything about that all they

can do is raise rates that's their blunt

policy instrument to basically create

more pain reduce our wealth and ruin our

time okay and every time I go on a

vacation a freaking stock market crashes

is terrible but anyway this behind me

right here this is a logistical

nightmare when there are fewer people

available to drive those trucks or

they're demanding more wages well fine

let them have more wages I mean I

encourage people get paid more money for

for hard work

and that is hard work out there but boy

oh boy even with wages going up there

still aren't enough people it's insane

and so you have massive supply chain

snarls that are just worsened by the

fact that China is trying to be

protectionist at the same time as their

economies crashing by more than a third

they're they're without doubting a

recession although their statistical

numbers or they're still positive GDP

two and a half percent it's just slower

growth it's

but anyway the FED can't do anything

about the supply chain damage so even

AMD even Tesla right complaining about

logistical nightmares and supply chain

nightmares they're still going on we

still like we have an oversupply of like

crypto chips that nobody wants and an

under supply of chips that we need for

things like cars which is crazy so we

still have a massive supply chain

mismatch and the FED Mary Daley Marie

Daly whatever told us uh just two days

ago in an interview with Bloomberg she

said hey you know look we think we

control the demand side of the

occupation and we think demand is

responsible for 50 of the inflation

we're seeing okay fine that means every

time you do a rate hike it's only 50 as

effective and every time you hike rates

one percent here you slow down

markets like Europe buy like 1.6 percent

there's like a a 60 greater effect on

other markets than our own Market from

rate hikes so in other words your hiking

rates to lower demand you have to lower

demand so much so to actually be able to

effect and try to get the supply chains

to repair themselves in doing so you are

crushing other markets this is why the

United Kingdom is experiencing uh you

know I mean they just had to rely on

their lending of Last Resort

capabilities because uh they almost

destroyed the market with with uh the

fall of the pound and the destruction in

the bond market Pension funds nearly

going bankrupt it's the kind of stuff

that could happen out here too it's

scary and so this is where

I want to be very clear about a few

things

first of all clear your calendar for the

first two weeks of December okay I want

to meet you in New York more details to

come I don't know what date yet

New York Stock Exchange first two weeks

of December be there be square

okay number two

you need to survive

I'm not paper handing

you know people label me as a paper hand

flip-flopper it's fine I think that's a

minority I think a lot of people come

here for intellectual

perspective

so I shouldn't even be addressing the

morons but anyway

I'm not selling

I am a fan of increasing my quantity in

these times and it's very hard it's very

hard I mean I'm looking at numbers red

that I haven't seen in my life okay like

it's so red it's terrible

but this is the time to build quantity

and that's exactly what I'm doing I'm

not going to let the emotions of what we

have known since January was going to be

a shitty 2022 affect what I believe the

trajectory for this rest the rest of

this decade is the rest of this decade

is an opportunity to build Welsh buying

at the bottom and writing stocks and

buying real estate substantially cheaper

than we'll ever be able to before

this is why we're hoarding cash with

househack we're not going to finance

real estate at these rates it's insane

everybody else is going to get screwed

in real estate we'll be the ones who

have cash we're gonna have massive

buying power

it's gonna be amazing if you're an

accredited investor you should join me

househack.com read the PPM that's your

solicitation this video is not a

solicitation

and if you're non-accredited don't worry

we're working on something to get

non-accredited investors in probably

also by January

but folks this is a time to be a

Survivor get out of debt increase your

income like you have to keep the grind

on right now now is literally the time

to get a second job I know that sounds

terrible it's like ah but things are so

shitty exactly exactly the time to be

euphoric and spendy is when when things

are a bull run like okay then go ride

your private jet now it's economy

save every freaking dime you can

stop spending money

I know that sounds crazy because that's

just gonna make the economy worse but

look come on in the finance Community

how many people am I really talking to

here okay relative to all consumers

across the United States are let alone

the world we're not worried about moving

the economy with my videos here I'm

worried about helping the people who do

watch realize

the pain could last longer

you know I'm not gonna come here and say

this is it this is the bottom tried that

didn't work I was wrong you know it it

was just wrong

it was just wrong and it sucks you know

in hindsight it's like damn best

performing asset was Cash

which

is kind of what I said in January I just

didn't fully listen to myself uh I only

partly listen to myself

uh but anyway be a Survivor don't get

margin called don't go bankrupt in this

time stop hiring people

if this is a hard message but if your

business is not going to survive under

the payroll that you have you need to

cut people got to get fired I'm sorry

that's just the way it works

you know these are times not to be

spendy other times to be Thrifty and I

want you to be a Survivor I got a text

message this morning from a course

member sent me pictures of of uh this

this store they opened up

phenomenal success awards they're in the

paper everything booming as

entrepreneurs now and um they thank me

for a lot of my business insights and I

mean huge shout out to them I gotta end

up posting a picture of of what they've

got going on maybe maybe we meet them

one day that'd be really cool but uh you

know I want to hear stories like that

from you I hear stories like that from

course members who especially those who

join in you know 2017 18 19. it takes

some time to get there you know it's not

overnight success

but I want you to be that person that

wins in 2028 I want you to be able to

look back at 2022 and go damn that was

hell

but now it's not

wish you the best and uh stay tuned for

more updates thanks for watching

damn it Jerome Powell you're really

screwed up let me make sure I covered

everything we talked about AMD we talked

about Consumer Credit we talked about

that six percent potential terminal rate

I mean that could be a lot of

fear-mongering and fud but I mean

things are so shitty right now anyway I

think I covered it all all right I'll

see you folks bye