yikes... help needed.

hey everyone me Kevin here I need help

there are two things that I need help

with one of them is market-based and one

of them is not Market based It's

actually an invitation for you if you'd

like to work in person for myself at

both of my startups be sort of a dual

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$120,000 each so keep that in mind

there's a there's a lot of a lot to

learn so now let's talk about the market

issue that we need help with so I want

to be crystal clear here I think that

the Nike Swoosh is going to continue to

hold and the best thing that we could

look forward to right now is potentially

buy the dip opportunity before the

election as we have election

uncertainties start to ramp but here's

why and it's something I just realized

this well I mean i' I've known this but

it just it dawned on me a little bit

more over the weekend and it's in my

opinion a huge catalyst so what's the

biggest thing that we're looking at if

we're a bear right now or we're a bull

considering bearish arguments well we're

looking at Elon Musk losing sorry um

we're looking at the broader Market

selling off due to a rapid increase in

unemployment at this point the Federal

Reserve has basically washed their hands

of

inflation kind of are acting like yeah

we're willing to wait we've gone through

all that before they've washed their

hand of uh hands of wages going up and a

wage price spiral so they've washed

their hands of inflation the wage price

spiral supply chain issues uh

geopolitics they've basically washed

their hands of every negative Catalyst

with the exception of the potential for

a sudden move down in the jobs Market in

other words a spike in unemployment or

spike in

joblessness well there's something

that's already been propping up the jobs

Market but that actually may continue to

prop up the jobs market for quite a

while going forward and that's

immigration both illegal and legal

consider this when the Bureau of Labor

Statistics calls us up and says hey you

got a job or how many employees you have

they're not asking legal or illegal this

means it's entirely possible that we

could be in a situation where we

continue to get illegal

immigration and it actually just and

quite frankly legal immigration and all

it does is prop up well certainly

existing politicians right politicians

today doesn't matter Democrat Republican

obviously the incumbent president but

also senators and and representatives

they'd like to brag over good employment

numbers and I hate to say it but the

reality is you don't get bad

unemployment numbers when the border is

nearly wide open or what feels like it's

wide open it actually helps politicians

because the Bureau of Labor Statistics

isn't asking about immigration status

they're trying to get clear surveys and

so when they call businesses how many

employees do you have or when they call

households how many people have a job in

your house they're not asking what your

immigration status is because then

nobody's going to answer their freaking

survey so job numbers actually go up due

to all forms of immigration not just

legal immigration so that actually makes

politicians less incentivized to deal

with the Border crisis which if any

country should be able to deal with the

Border crisis it should be us but maybe

there's a reason we're not because it

actually props up to some extent the

economy GDP it makes the Federal Reserve

feel like the econom is popping along it

makes politicians happy because we're

not in a recession pretty much in a

recession every politician loses their

job but look at what we have right now

we have what feel like Rosy employment

numbers we have the Atlanta fed GDP P

numbers that just came out uh on the

24th 32% these are some crazy numbers

absolutely crazy numbers some other

things that are absolutely crazy numbers

are the fact that we've taken this

trading account from like $980,000 to

over uh$ 2.26 million if you want all my

buy sell trade alerts no guarantees we

can have the same success going forward

but let's just say it's going really

well think I had another $50,000 profit

day today oh actually I might be a

little bit higher I should send in an

updated screenshot here but um while I

pull that up we have a coupon code

expiring Friday so if you're not part of

it yet do check out the courses on

building your wealth linked down below

it's educational based I can't guarantee

you're going to make or lose money but I

can say I'm going to provide you the

best education that I can in both real

estate entrepreneurship Finance you name

it uh I did just update that p&l sheet

uh for today and it looks like uh with

the trades this morning is able to get

the account up to 2 2,700,000 so that

was another p&l like 50,000 is a day so

yay let's see if we can keep those

trades going uh but uh anyway take a

look at those courses linked down below

I also want to give a really quick shout

out to the wonderful vacation that we

just had this weekend I took some of the

trading tendies and I decided to spend

them on a really cool vacation with the

family so what we actually did is uh we

went to a ranch and uh we got to do some

really cool fun things uh not only stay

in cabins but drive these golf carts

around five star restaurants uh yeah

just peace and quiet away from

technology dude's trip uh we did

compound bows regular Recurve Bows so

archery horseback riding uh just a

really good time out in nature away from

Tech uh I did wear a helmet because I

think my entire staff would kill me if I

didn't wear a helmet when I was on the

horse although it's much cooler to wear

a cowboy hat especially since we got

rodo over there as well so uh really

really fun time fantastic time roasted

marshmallows with the kids too there's

Sasquatch Max is taking on Sasquatch so

really really good time but anyway uh

okay let's get to the topic so so what I

need your help with is trying to

understand where the negative catalysts

are because here's the thing I want I

want you to think about this for a

moment negative catalysts what do we

have we have the 10 two yield curve

inversion that's it 10 two yield curve

inversion or the twoos 10 we call it uh

the inversion right now sits at -44 bips

that's a bad Omen but right now the

reason we're getting this long uh

basically inverted yield curve is

because we're being propped up on the

jobs numbers partly because of this

immigration issue as a result interest

rates will probably as we've heard

already many times before stay higher

for longer we're only pricing in as of

right now we are only pricing in

1.37 rate cuts that's a that's a chunk

lower than what we were pricing in last

week yet why then is the NASDAQ ad

dooodle up 18 bips well the reason is

unfortunately I don't think there are

enough negative catalysts right now

unless there's a Black Swan event to say

bad things are coming earnings are

passed us they came in substantially

better on a PE basis than we expected

that's basically we're looking at here's

where we thought the PE levels would be

earnings came in higher oh wow that was

off expectations so pees are actually

lower than we thought pric earnings

ratios bottom line is earnings came in

just substantially better than expected

not only did earnings come in better

than expected but inflation is still on

a substantial downtrend and after the

latest inflation report we saw our

5-year Break Even which was starting to

rise settle back down we're 2.34 right

now this is nowhere near the spike we

had in you know March and April when we

had a little bit of that S&P and NASDAQ

selloff I was a buy the dip opportunity

but it was a short one and so this is

where I need your help finding bearish

arguments I want you to leave comments

down below is it the housing market we

did a housing market video last week

where we had um uh Mr Barry sterli

halting with uh redemptions but he

wasn't halting redemptions because the

market was plummeting he's halting

redemptions because he thinks this could

be the bottoming of the real estate

market he actually thinks the Boom is

ahead that's great for house hack you

know we're we're looking to expand our

purchases as we speak it's one of the

reasons I'm looking for uh more interns

so we can really start establishing our

outposts in some of the different

markets that we're working to expand

into uh so we got inflation data we

talked 2 is 10 that's really the only

bad Omen inflation expectations stable

we talked jobs data we know GDP data is

booming again the only bad data we're

getting out of GDP data which we do have

a catalyst this week on GDP is that

exports uh are weak uh and of course

inventory buildup but that makes sense I

mean this morning I was talking to uh

course members about ubiquity in a

fundamental analysis on ubiquity I'll

pull up one page here that I think you

really ought to be paying attention to

if you're not already uh and keep in

mind GDP for the second estimate is only

expected to be 1.3% that comes out in

two days that's a Thursday morning

Catalyst at 5:30 in the morning probably

trade it but anyway um look at this

right here oh and remember it doesn't so

much matter the GDP report because again

you got to strip out exports and

inventory buildup so what's going on

with inventory buildup well companies

aren't actually building up inventory

anymore look at ubiquity inventor is 737

million down to 533 million why is the

inventory uh starting to get drawn down

and why all of a sudden are we going

from spending $500 million in I think

this is 9 months for inventory to

gaining $181,000 on inventory or sorry

Million Dollar on inventory what because

of what's called inventory draw down and

the expectation that Supply chains have

gotten so loose that if you need to

manufacture more you can just pick up

the phone and go yo double the order and

the the manufacturers are like sure the

only place you're really seeing a

manufacturing shortage right now is in

being able to get out the advanced gpus

like the Blackwells you still have

supply shortages there uh but uh as far

as manufacturing otherwise broadly for

generic Internet of Things Tech and a

small bit small mediumsized business

recovery as rates start trending down

eventually ubiquity is an interesting

play um actually at the time of this

video not exposed to it but um I'm I'm

looking at it it's it's you know it's

it's had a it's had a rough year and a

half but it's getting interesting again

uh and it's had a little pop recently

after earnings here after we got this

sort of data but anyway um just being

transparent so

um I'm I'm looking for bad data I don't

see it in housing yes inventory is

rising but we anticipated that happening

and that is going to soften markets

especially in overbuild markets so yes

there will be some softness in housing

commercial softness is going to continue

for a while but that's fine then you've

got uh consumer spending still robust I

realize that lower incomes are uh

suffering you have higher interest

expenses on Autos car values are going

down at the same time credit cards

defaults are going up but just because

it you know the lower end has like a

little smoldering doesn't mean the

entire economy is going to tank on that

you can smolder and frankly just burn

people's wealth the little that folks in

the lower income Spectrum have have uh

for much longer without the economy

turning so then you're really looking at

a maybe a banking crisis but frankly we

haven't had a banking crisis since the

bank term funding program ended and as

they start cutting rates you're actually

reducing the odds of a banking crisis

some people say oh well what about the

t+1 liquidity challenges I mean yeah you

could have some weird one-off liquidity

issue but you know the fed's just going

to bail that out right away so then

you've got geopolitics you know China

Taiwan but as we've researched many

times before those are some of the best

buy the dip opportunities like right the

moment of invasion you buy the dip and

then you just slowly melt up in that

Nike Swoosh pattern I think we are TR we

are heading towards a trajectory of

NASDAQ all-time highs not only NASDAQ

alltime highs which obviously we're

already on let me clarify that NASDAQ

inflation adjusted all-time highs that's

a big difference NASDAQ inflation

adjusted all-time Highs are probably

going to put you somewhere around like

518 on uh on the q's and our next fiby

right here is 501 on the on a fib

extension now I know a lot of people get

pissed at me when I when I talk fibbies

and the extensions they're like oh this

is just fugazi fugazi but if you go back

to my Nvidia videos when people ask me

Kevin what's your next breakout support

level I go

1116 it was just a simple FIB extension

and look at where we're trading

today we're literally rubber banding

around the 1116 level these are the

things that I like to trade I like to

trade trends that I'm noticing and you

can actually see this live live in my

course member live stream this morning

in the live stream which is in this

early 7:00 hour we started it right here

at like 7:02 and we're going live I drew

these very very simple consolidation

lines here on the minute which also gets

reiterated on the F minute chart and I

said this is dangerous this is probably

going to break down this is it happened

live like if you haven't joined the

courses yet and you join that live

stream you could literally watch me say

this is probably going to break down I

don't know what certainty but I'm like 6

% this is going to break down and sure

enough it breaks down and and it's been

worse for the rest of the day since so

those are the things that I like to

teach those are the things I like to

trade off of again I can't guarantee we

could always be profitable uh but so far

let's just say great day today I traded

the Virgin Galactic rally traded Tesla

and I lost money on Celsius the reason I

lost money on Celsius is because I saw

that consolidation pattern and I said

I'm out I'm going to cut my loss I'm not

going to hold I'm not going to Diamond

hand that trade so I think I was down

like 15% on that one obviously my Tesla

trade offset that and then Virgin

Galactic substantially you know that

made the Bucks today uh but anyway so so

like I say not everything's going to win

or lose that's my realized p&l today

that's why the account moved from 2020

to like

2070 uh so just over $2 million uh but

anyway join the stocks and psychology

money group if you want those Buy sell

alerts so at least you could see what

I'm doing and you can trade around it

usually recommend people look for uh the

idea and not copy traits actually I

always recommend that because I don't

give people personalized advice don't

don't copy trades but anyway uh okay so

uh what else so okay the cues can get to

an inflation adjusted all-time high

people are going to be pissed you like

bro I've been milking money markets for

5% why am I why did I have the money

there in cash when you know the Market's

moving up substantially more than that

that realization I think will just

continue to come especially as we get

softer inflation data in the second half

and now jpow could be lying through his

teeth but just know what we have coming

up we have the CPI release coming up in

the middle of next month and you want to

know what the estimates right now are

for

CPI month over month

.1% okay well that's nothing and then if

I look at the uh

core we're at 316 on the estimate uh

that's core Services that's uh let me

look at the survey here really quick oh

I'm sorry the average is actually.

29 so no at least not currently surveyed

we could always get Black Swan and rug

pulled you know that's where trading and

hedging can come in to help but can I

really advocate for saying oh you know

there's the next big Catalyst around the

corner no I don't see it and and again

maybe I'm blind to it and that's why I

need your help not only email me if you

want an internship but all jobs at me

Kevin with a one minute pitch video in

your resume but also where are the

negative Catalyst where can I be bearish

so it's not GDP I don't think it's

housing uh I don't think uh the yield

curve inversion is going to do anything

for us yet because of the immigration

issue the immigration issue is just

keeping everything propped up which does

mean higher for longer that does burn

small caps small businesses and

unfortunately poor

individuals but you know manufacturing's

coming out of a recession not going into

a recession the data we've been looking

at shows us that we're actually

potentially like the Deutsche Bank piece

we talked about last week we're actually

coming out of what they call this sort

of like micro or faux recession where

everything had this sort of like

cyclical recession you the semis had

their first recession then they recover

out uh you know then you had the mega

caps they recover out of their recession

uh and the layoffs then you have uh you

know basically the last ones here

probably your interest rat s sensitives

but you're actually starting to see this

recovery on the interest rate sensitives

too now people ask me about Tesla and N

phase oh look at that that trend's

actually continuing if I extend this a

little bit people ask me about Tesla and

nphase nasee is actually a more Pure

Play interest rate sensitive investment

than Tesla is right now the reason for

that is obviously markets are going to

start pricing in rate Cuts but the

reason for that is you have a lot of

negative Catalyst for Tesla I hate to

say that I am a I'm a Tesla fan I have

exposure to Tesla but you have to keep

this in mind the mode of full

self-driving is wearing and people who

think that the mode of full self-driving

is not wearing have a stick so far up

there behind that they're duding

themselves I want you to think about

this I bought a Tesla at the end of 2017

and full self-driving had really been

you know FSD people have really been

using that for about a year then so say

202 2016 to about 2023 you have this run

of full self-driving it's about seven

years

7 years to get from the early versions

of FSD to version

11 then in the last year you basically

delete all of that you take that data

you've collected and you run it through

35,0

h100s and you spit out version 12 in a

year okay wait so that means we created

a better version of full self- driving

in one year than we did in the seven

years before that okay that makes sense

from a technological point of view but

where's the risk here well the risk is

Blackwell chips could do it with four

times fewer chips so think about this 35

divid 4 somebody would only have to

buy about 9,000 Blackwell chips and they

would have the same compute power

assuming they had the data to build out

an FSD

stack now obviously they don't have the

data that Tesla does but what do you

think we're going to start seeing build

out over the

next one to two

years all the autos and and they all

suck with their eight ass right now but

Toyota Mercedes for J they don't all to

Candle the Tesla right now but byd xping

do and what are they all doing they all

start collecting

data then look only one iteration over

from the h100 to Blackwell you need four

times fewer chips what about next year

when you have Blackwell 2.0 and you only

need 4,000 chips instead of 9,000 chips

let's say you get another 4X Improvement

right well now all of a sudden somebody

gets data between now and the end of

next year the end of

2025 now you train it potentially faster

as well by mid 2026 my guess is you're

going to start having FSD versions at

companies like Ford GM Mercedes BMW

Toyota all of a sudden the FSD mode from

Tesla burn

that's not good now some people are like

but Kevin why don't people just license

from Tesla Tesla told you themselves

that it would take three years to see

Tesla FSD licensing from contract today

to in someone's vehicle in production on

the road 3

years well with today's Nvidia

technology they can literally do that

themselves in 3 years they could have

their own FSD in 3 years collect data

now over the next year year and a half

train it on chipsets that are as

powerful as we have today where we can

run simulations to catch up on the data

lead that Tesla has the reality is the

the success you have in FSD curves out

we know that Nvidia told us that

themselves you know I saw a video uh

from somebody uh I don't even know why I

watched it but they're like oh you know

the most bullish thing ever for Tesla

was Nvidia shouting out uh uh FSD and

I'm like are you smoking crack that was

the most bullish thing for NVIDIA not

Tesla here's the chart I was just

referring to progress curves out over

time as costs goes up so Tesla gets

bogged over here at the end while

everybody else could catch up really

fast you know everybody else can get to

98% while Tesla's working on the last

percent see but the shout out from

Nvidia was actually the most bullish

thing ever for nvidia's Edge case

scenario uh simulation training and data

training because now any other OEM can

use the Nvidia Orin platform which isn't

even out yet uh and they could use the

Orin platform to um sorry I'm sorry let

me correct this Nvidia Drive Thor

powered by Blackwell will replace Orin

we're on Orin right now Thor is going to

be the new one uh but anyway uh this

platform is going to be one of the

biggest FSD competitors to Tesla I'm

convinced and guess what it's true

software service because Nvidia is

designing chips they're not

manufacturing them so they're selling

you a design obviously in a completed

chip product but then they're also

licensing you the FSD software through

Nvidia Drive

Thor it's insane now obviously I think

that's one of the reasons why Nvidia is

actually up 5% today and Tesla's down 2%

today you also have some of the other

issues with Tesla like um you know the

vote for Elon Musk I still think and I'm

not advocating for one way or the other

here but I think some people are going

to vote to punish Elon because they

think you know oh he said he was going

to build out a super computer stack at

Tesla now it's not Dojo is just an edge

case instead we're going to build out

the super computer stack over at xai

Great and you've already been recruiting

Talent away for AI from Tesla over to

xai because that's your new latest and

greatest whatever uh I think people are

going to punish him so uh I'm not saying

that people should vote against Elon

here because you know commitment made is

a commitment that should be honored but

people are going to go back and they're

going to justify and go you know uh it

was wasn't properly disclosed vote no

you know and and there's your out

basically for saying uh you're you're

backing out on a deal and I think people

are going to punish them this is going

to be a very tight vote and so this is a

big Catalyst between now and June 13th I

think if the vote goes through the stock

can actually go up again but uh if it

doesn't um you might actually already be

pricing in a lot of that negativity but

but I'm not certain but anyway there are

some concerns about the long-term moat

of Nvidia or sorry of Tesla's FSD and I

think that's worth paying attention to

one of the reasons I say that nphase is

a more Pure Play than um than Tesla so

something to keep in mind so um yeah I

mean other than that boy I mean I think

your next Catalyst really is a Microsoft

breakout here look at Microsoft stuck at

the uh 430 that's your next Catalyst for

Microsoft an all-time high on Nvidia

would be nice to sorry on uh Meadow

would be nice to see and Apple's just

chugging along on its recovery as buying

the crap out of it over here at the 169

level uh but anyway you want all my Buy

sell alerts make sure you're part of

stocks and psychology money group coupon

expires this Friday email us for bundles

at staff meetkevin.com uh if you go to

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uh and U by the way this is pretty cool

as well not a lot of people know about

this but we put a secret link over here

it's not really secret now that I'm

telling you about it but anyway um this

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basically where we did 37 actual

Financial advice lectures for people's

specific scenarios to say this is the

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focusing on now to get your wealth to

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information but you can actually buy

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that out a lot of people are bundling

that together it's pretty cool uh and uh

it's a very I think affordable price as

well so check that out but otherwise

thank you so much for being here really

appreciate you all uh the video is also

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thank you so much it is in person

remember that we'll see you in the next

one goodbye and good luck out there why

not advertise these things that you told

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congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

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