The Massive FED Great Reset is About to START | Bottom Line Report [E.12]

we have a lot to talk about in this

video but I hate fud fear uncertainty

and doubt we have a lot to talk about

about it fun it's fun fear uncertainty

and doubt and this is not to be confused

with misinformation it's true what we're

experiencing in today's market in

today's economy is fear uncertainty and

doubt I mean look when McCarthy got

voted out yesterday and now maybe we're

gonna have Jim Jordan What's it gonna be

like between him and Democrats is

Congress going to get anything done are

we going to have a budget shutdown are

we going to have a recession are we not

going to have a recession is it going to

be worse than 2008 is it not gonna be

worse than 2008 all of these things and

we can keep going because there's a lot

more is the dollar gonna collapse

eventually it will but probably not soon

but all of these things are increasing

fear uncertainty and doubt in our

livelihoods and in my opinion we need to

be very very blunt about what's going on

we're going to go through some of the

data from this morning including this

morning's ADP report as well as some

other information but what's critically

important is that we ask ourselves

in the position that we're in right now

do we take advantage of opportunities

and invest or do we speculate that

things are going to be cheaper in the

future the same thing is do we speculate

that things are going to be more

expensive in the future right that's

speculation the question that helps us

answer that is are we in a position

where we need the money we need access

to right now and then where do we want

to allocate it and get a five percent

yield on money market

but then you have the opportunity cost

of maybe missing out on gains in the

stock market which could also be losses

ultimately that's what we really want to

intro off with is understanding that we

are in a period of hyper uncertainty

yesterday we get the jolts numbers what

happens right after we get the jolt

numbers of you know 9.4 million dollar

read or whatever well immediately after

that Goldman Sachs is like ah these are

probably overstated these are probably a

million job openings overstated because

we know what we're reading in the

private sector kind of suggests things

aren't really that hot that's the kind

of reaction that we're getting in the

economy right now but when it came to

actually markets yesterday treasury

yields skyrocketed and stocks fell on

this idea that oh my gosh here's a

report that's going to drive the Federal

Reserve to be even more aggressive than

they should be and by being even more

aggressive than they should be we

increase the odds of going into a

recession today we get exactly the

opposite kind of report which then it's

like oh my gosh what do you believe well

the reality is it's probably all wrong

and I know there's one side of the you

know argument here that people say it's

all rigged on purpose

I think it's all inaccurate but I think

the trends are probably not designed to

be rigged there are probably reasons and

data collection that we could reasonably

suggest that okay yeah even even if it's

inaccurate it could still point us in

the right direction in a normal economy

but that's the problem when you're in a

place where we are now which is coming

off of nine percent inflation massive

pandemic money printing combined with a

war new crane stalemate in Congress and

coming off the backs of what is really a

pretty wealthy individual base right

Amer the American household is very

strong and that's not everyone okay

don't get me wrong prices for things

everything's up over 20 we know that and

their sympathy to be had especially for

poor folks who are more

disproportionately affected by inflation

but when we look at household

expenditures as a percentage of

disposable income this is a really

important metric because it's just going

to put together all of the data for us

it's going to put it all together on one

chart to say look of the

total leftover money people have after

their expenses how much is going to

debts which usually we look at debts as

a sign of stress to some degree if you

had the cash you don't need the debt

especially in a high interest rate

environment so if debt's going up which

we know credit card debt went over a

trillion dollars we know the United

States debts over 33 trillion dollars

well then then we think oh my gosh

there's stress

or everything's just inflated and we

have to get used to bigger numbers and

that's not to justify inflation I'm not

here to say we should go print more

money I'm just saying when we actually

look at household balance sheets and

this household disposable income as a

percentage of personal uh you know their

Debt Service payments as a percentage of

their leftover money

we're not

at levels that are higher than what

we've seen between 2012 and 2020 you

know right before the pandemic if

anything were slightly lower than this

imaginary resistance line we could draw

over here and we're way lower than what

we've seen in the past

this data goes all the way through the

second quarter of 2023 so hey maybe

things changed in Q3 right the last

three months we just went into Q4 which

is crazy to think about already that

we're already in Q4 it's really weird I

started building a Millennium Falcon

yesterday with my son jack from Star

Wars and it's it's amazing we actually

we're gonna watch the whole series while

we build a Millennium Falcon we're gonna

watch all the Star Wars movies

in chronological order so we're starting

with the prequels

which means we're going to be getting

into the 70s stuff by movie four that's

going to be fun but anyway uh look let's

look at some of the data and let's

understand some of the things going on

in our economy but understand in times

of uncertainty this data isn't

incredibly

dare I say uh

reliable that's because when you look at

ADP data anytime we've had ADP data over

the last like 10 years between 50 000

and 100 000 jobs the BLS labor report

that came out after told us we had job

gains of zero thirty nine thousand over

a hundred thousand and over two hundred

thousand and it's like

the ADP report does not necessarily

predict what we're going to expect on uh

the jobs report coming up keep in mind

that the jobs report coming out on

Friday will uh release uh with an

estimate of about 170 000 jobs created

which is about the historical average

that's right in line with about the

average we've seen over the last 10

years so you're not really seeing that

labor softening it there however we did

in the ADP report this morning so let's

talk about this but let's also remind

you

that I appreciate you being here and

make sure to subscribe to the channel

okay so let's look at the ADP report so

ADP report came in way lower than

expected we got 89 000 jobs we were

expecting 150 000 jobs we did have a

slight revision up on the last from 177

to 180. this annual pay being up 5.9 as

well sounds like a big number but it's

not a month over month number it's

annual and it's been going straight down

it's been so intense that there's this

quote I want to read you from their

Chief Economist which is a pretty big

deal but only after I mentioned the new

Bruce Pro crash courses make sure to go

to meet kevin.com to learn about these

89 on pre-sale crash courses I expect

them to be double the price by the time

they actually come out so they'll be

well over 150 160 bucks maybe

approaching 200 bucks lock these prices

and now at 89 bucks in pre-sale how to

speak with confidence profitable side

hustle how to fundamentally analyze

stock sell anything to anyone retire

early never pay taxes renovate real

estate negotiate any deal right

negotiations sales boost your

productivity productivity folks that's

going to be a really good one by the way

and we're going to give you the real

stuff not this crap that's just like

just take cold showers every morning and

you'll be fine we're gonna give you the

real stuff go to meet kevin.com to learn

more so check that out at mekevin.com

prices will be going up again soon so

what do we have here Chief Economist

says we are seeing a steepening decline

in jobs this month steepening decline

means companies are like look we're

fully hired we're we're fully staffed

there's some people saying in the

healthcare industry we're expecting even

more layoffs especially back office

layoffs Healthcare by the way is a big

sector taking advantage of artificial

intelligence Kaiser Permanente might be

going on strike here obviously we got

the UAW strikes going on seems like

maybe the writer's Guild is going to

work some things out but we'll see but

anyway this is so this is a Miss it's a

pretty low report here and so naturally

the Market's pulling back on this I mean

you've got oil down about three to four

percent on this news that you know we've

got a weak jobs report here basically

and if this is a precursor to what we

get Friday you could see a rapid

unwinding of treasuries this is where

you could literally get a short squeeze

I want you to think about that for a

moment because if you're looking for

trading strategies uh there's there's

this potential

that you could end up with a short

squeeze here on Treasures because here's

how this works so uh treasury yields

yields go way up prices go way down okay

because we're in this trend of Treasury

yields going straight down you could

look at something like TMF you're

probably TMF is like a leveraged bond

fund too so it's like a complete sh9t

show like look at the weak chart of this

straight down right this is the most

shortable stock you could have picked

over the last quite frankly three years

you could have shorted this in in the

pandemic and and you would have just

profited profited profited profited

right so anyway

there is a massive short position on

treasuries if we end up getting a weak

ADP report that ends up driving yields

down right so let's change colors here

week ADP report drives yields down it's

happening right now we're down seven

basis points on the 10-year and on the

two year we're down 8.4 which means

they're steepening the yield curve don't

worry about what that means it does

signal to some people we might be

getting closer to recession but whatever

yields down because the ADP report you

get a weak jobs report yields are going

to go down even more what's that going

to do to bond prices bond prices are

going to rise well people are heavy

heavy heavy short right now so you could

see an explosion

in bond prices and a plummeting in

yields which would be good for Real

Estate which would mean you know time to

get off the office chair again and go

shopping for Real Estate again because

maybe those Peak rates are in for a bit

uh but anyway I really think that's

going to be November December it's it's

it's going to be a poop show but we'll

see what happens with the data this

Friday but we could set up for a massive

short squeeze on Treasury so keep that

in mind pay heavy attention to this

looking at the ADP report what do we got

we have 89 000 jobs created where are we

losing we're losing some in trade and

utilities we're also losing some in uh

right here a professional business

services these are your white collar

jobs manufacturing also getting hit

though construction still holding up

though so are Financial activities which

I think that's interesting we usually

see that uh that has been historically

negative here jumping over to location

it's really the South that's getting hit

the hardest but it's also no longer

those small businesses small businesses

actually leading the gains which is a

way of potentially saying hey you know

what one of the reasons we could be

seeing gains in small businesses is

because they tend to again skew service

sector where the large establishments

are like look or Microsoft we're a large

you know we're Kaiser Permanente

whatever we can lay off people we're

Vodafone they're going to lay off like

11 000 people because their company is

you know trying to become efficient

again and they're not they're

complaining so much I've never seen a

company complain as much as Vodafone in

an annual report uh here I'll show it to

you because we do this kind of analysis

in the course member live streams make

sure you're part of those every single

day but I mean this company's like our

comparative performance has worsened

over time we have the lowest uh return

on Capital invested uh in in Europe

alongside massive investment demands and

a higher weighted average cost of

capital

very kind of negative report here uh

Carnival Cruise Lines on an inflation

point of you you would think would be

like a service provider that's actually

able to raise prices but the answer is

no here's a company that has raised

prices five percent since 2019 which

means on a real basis you've actually

changed prices negative about 13 with

about 18 inflation sorry Carnival no PP

for you who does have pricing power

though is Veil today we learned that uh

their Peak prices are up about 36

percent compared to over 2019 and uh and

this is the first time in a long time

I've actually seen in earnings call talk

about how they're really raising prices

although there's a chance that ski

resorts could appeal to maybe like a

wealthier audience anyway so that this

isn't really a massive CPI impact but

for the first time in probably about a

year and a half I've actually found a

company that's really raising prices and

it's the ski resorts or a sector but

again if that skews wealthier then and

and people still have excess savings

especially wealthier and people want to

travel more whatever this does somewhat

make sense but look the softening

employment report is going to be

something that creates some heart

palpitations uh for for the idea that

okay well maybe maybe it is time for the

FED to say we've we've done enough

touching on the real estate market not a

surprise what did we always talk about

institutions being the ones that are

likely going to become sellers American

homes for rent Invitation Homes either

slowed their buying or become net

sellers according to the Wall Street

Journal here I do think this is very

interesting residential property values

you could really see how the 30-year

fixed rate mortgage has just saved the a

single family Market keep in mind if I

was going to draw a prediction of what

we're going to see I think we're going

to see another dippy doodla here mostly

uh because of this skyrocketing of

interest rates and also what we're

actually seeing on the ground on the

ground right now things are hitting the

wall in many many many many markets now

there are still some like La is still

actually one of those where you're still

getting multiple offers there are still

markets you're getting multiple offers

these are usually for move-in ready

remodeled homes uh and we're starting to

see less of them so if I was going to

draw a prediction of this line I'm not

going to do this yeah I don't believe

that I I wouldn't be surprised if maybe

we saw something like this

that that's somewhat of an expectation

that I have right now it's possible that

this drop could be a little like it

could deviate slightly you know maybe

maybe we'll end up getting something

like that or we'll have something that's

a little uh deeper even like that but I

wouldn't be surprised that we just end

up with this sort of volatility going

forward I don't actually think we have

the capacity to really break this

long-term appreciation uh you know well

the trend that we've broken here right

because think about it this is this is

your long-term appreciation Trend over

here it's I wouldn't be surprised if

you're a little bit more sideways for a

few years which is a great opportunity

for a company in my opinion like house

hack click or startup because I think

we're going to be able to buy really

good wedge deals and be insulated to the

downside without needing to speculate

that that property values are

skyrocketing will still be able to do

very very well in my opinion uh despite

what I think first for a period of time

will be a little bit of a ceiling on

property values that's why I like

investing in house attack now regarding

ski resorts they probably do still have

pricing power because remember look at

this excess savings chart and this has

been like argued so much like are we

actually negative or are we positive

whatever what we do know is there is

definitely this spread between the

wealthier and the poor individuals right

and this this spread over here on the

right that I'm kind of drawing in I

think that's really what supports the

more expensive kind of travel which

would be generally your ski snowboard

vacations a little bit more expensive

here so this this reiterates why we're

potentially still seeing price increases

there whereas everything else is just

hitting the wall and now

early wealth segment which you can sign

up for free by using the newsletter link

right below the new verse Pro courses in

the link to househack.com my real estate

a startup we might be closing the

fundraise for that sooner rather than

later it's a good news thing but uh yeah

stay tuned we're making a decision

within the next week or two here stay

tuned so okay

here's something to consider when you

spend money

like on this mug and you go and let's

say spend a hundred dollars on this mug

which we know it's not actually a

hundred dollars and I just spilled some

coffee but uh

let's say it's a hundred dollars

how much do you have to make to actually

afford that mug

well you'd have to make probably

somewhere between 130 and 150 dollars

because you have to pay taxes to be able

to afford this 100 mug

that sucks

and this is why there's a massive

incentive to do two things number one

spend money on things that you can

deduct from your taxes

and number two create a side hustle that

is not a hobby but it has an expectation

of making income and hopefully makes

income and of course talk to your tax

professional about this I'm not a CPA so

I can't give tax advice but you have a

side Hustle you say you know what I need

this for my YouTube videos it's

necessary and ordinary for me to talk

about RuneScape in my videos

well now all of a sudden I can deduct

this from my taxes and now this 100 mug

is a hundred dollars the Mug's actually

only about twenty dollars but it's

easier to do math with 100 okay point of

this is to say What expenses do you have

in your life your cell phone bill that

new laptop that Apple watch that could

be considered necessary in ordinary

expenses for a side Hustle but because

you have a job you don't think about it

and therefore you're paying an extra

basically 30 or 40 percent think about

that it's a big deal thanks so much for

watching the bottom line report hope to

see you soon again

subscribe why not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin path right there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take