Warning: China is Collapsing.

well holy smokes there's a chance China

could just be collapsing in front of our

eyes at least economically and don't use

my words here for it just look at some

of these previews Here China shutters

more than 1 million restaurants as

economy Withers okay that's just one of

them and these are characterizations

that are popping up everywhere they're

just getting worse and wor worse and

worse here's one from the times where

they say why is it so hard for China to

fix its alien economy a real estate

collapse has many consumers cautious and

businesses wary as China confronts a

crisis unlike any other since it opened

its economy to the world now keep in

mind they opened their economy to the

world 40 years ago so in other words

this is potentially the worst economic

crisis in China in 40 years I mean

consider this as well China's real

estate stocks you thought it was bad

when the companies started plummeting

and tanking back in 21 and 22 oh no no

no no the problem has just gotten worse

and worse and worse look at that you had

some enthusiasm crash you had enthusiasm

crash you had enthusiasm crash every dip

has just been followed by more and more

pain the real estate crisis in China is

now Now worse than what we saw in

2008 which is insane because that was a

real estateel catastrophe a global

financial crisis so what the heck is

going on and what is all of this pain

going to mean for America and I think

that's really what's important to look

at here because one of the things that

you're getting is almost on a daily

basis I'm seeing article after article

after article about how China is falling

apart not just those that you just saw

but even what China is known for their

manufacturing industry going broke and

now overc capacity is leading to Soaring

bankruptcies and so we have to consider

wait what could this mean for our dollas

in the United States is Kevin Kevin just

just give it to a straight is is it

going to be okay well let's figure it

out because it ain't going to be okay

for some but for others yeah maybe let's

see which side you're on so first of all

China just reported some crazy

deflationary figures and the problem

with deflation is that Supply chains are

so freaking loose after covid that

there's really no way to stimulate these

Supply chains because China is like a

manufacturing economy Okay cool so let's

let's think about it this way for a

moment let's say you run a factory that

could make 10,000 of these then CO's hit

Co hits and all of a sudden there's

Global demand for 20,000 of these over

that same period of time and you're like

I need no I need more manufacturing

space so you build an add-on to your

manufacturing facility you buy more

Machinery you hire more people now

you're like all right it's 2024 we're

ready to make 20,000 cups of you know

over what period of time call it a month

and uh now all of a sudden you look at

orders and the orders coming in aren't

10,000 15,000 20,000 no none of those

they're like 2 ,000 and you're like bro

I just expanded and overbuilt yo

government let me get on my China device

and go yo government please bail me out

I need some help okay so the

government's like oh we should bail him

out and so what do they do here's some

money so you could expand your factory

and create more jobs so then you go

expand your factory and hire more people

and you're like all right government I

have done the deed I have expanded

capacity even more now instead of being

able to manufacture 20,000 mugs I can do

30,000 and the government's like

oh that means you can do it even cheaper

which in other words continues what's

now being referred to as the

deflationary Doom Loop in China in other

words because you have a

manufacturing country when the

government the Communist Party of China

decides to stim ulate all they're really

doing is creating more deflation so this

is like a horrible Loop that they're in

to the point now well listen to this we

are now at the fifth we're now expecting

the fifth quarter in a row of deflation

in China on a GDP Factor based on the

last inflation reads that we just got

and one of the biggest drivers of

deflation that you're seeing in China is

a big warning to America it's wage defl

see incomes have been sagging so much in

China because as soon as those

manufacturers say crap you know we got

too much Machinery we got too much

capacity here the first thing they do is

lay off and then what happens is people

start panicking because they're like bro

I need to pay my mortgage or I need to

pay my rent or whatever so they offer

their labor services for a fraction of

what they were willing to earn

previously just to be able to have some

form of income wage deflation

perpetuates this deflationary snowball

then you get households that spend less

because they expect prices to continue

to fall corporate revenues fall more

corporate layoffs companies start going

bankrupt because more people then when

there are layoffs spend even less now

you have salaries that are literally

down 10% since August of 2022 think

about that like people's pay went up

like crazy during the pandemic at least

a lot of people's hopefully yours was

included in that if if not you know hey

we'll consult with you over at stock

hack.com to make sure you can make some

more money go check out our financial

advisory wealth business service at

stock hack.com we're opening up uh

October 1st it's going to be amazing uh

but anyway in a survey of over 300

Executives in

China the survey results showed the

weakest growth in labor costs since Co

and now people are starting to refer to

what's happening in China as oh my gosh

this is going to be like Japan you

remember what happened to Japan let me

just put it this way you know how people

are like oh buy the dip on the S&P 500

and don't worry about it like you know

all the macro news and all that stuff

doesn't matter okay well let's Google

The Nay

225 this is the Tokyo Stock Exchange

average of you know 225 of their uh

largest Securities and so what do you

end up with oh okay all right you know

what's the oneyear return oh 11% that's

great that seems a lot like uh you know

what You' get in the S&P 500 oh okay all

right fine what about the fiveyear oh

it's up 64% Kevin what are you

complaining about okay well let's go out

to

Max and let's look at

1989 in

1989 which is I mean think about this

this is like 33 years ago more than that

it's like 35 years ago

35 years ago folks 35 years ago the

stock market the the k225 was higher

than it is today so if you bought the

dip in

1989 you might just now be break even

it's crazy uh so anyway now now think

about that in the meantime like if

people are making this comparison that

China could turn into Japan then this is

really bad like what's next well the

first thing that's next is that China

starts trying to prevent economists from

talking about deflation this actually

started happening I think it was the

financial times deflation Economist

China I'm pretty sure if you look that

up you will find uh that um the

financial times reported that China told

Economist whatever you do do not report

on negative news like deflation we want

you to avoid talking about that now

that's really interesting because I then

looked at what the economist had to say

about that and the economist suggested

wait a minute wait a minute if we start

trying to control the narrative then

what'll end up happening is we'll end up

like the Soviet Union where at first you

can lie to people at first you could

tell them the data is good when it's not

oh yeah GDP is 4% when you're lying

through your teeth and you know it's not

but what happens when the market is no

longer able to properly react to real

data well the market stays propped up on

fugazi and when the market stays propped

up on fugazi then all of a sudden the

leaders in this country start going ha

see our charades working and then they

start going cool so uh you know we're

the leaders of the country what's uh

what's the real data and all of a sudden

the economists are like we don't know

because you lied about some of the

original data so we don't know what

we're comparing to and then all of a

sudden the bottom falls out and you're

like why did Soviet Union

collapse well it's one of the reasons

all of a sudden wow when you take

control of an entire economy via author

authoritarian means what a surprise it

all collapses here it is Financial Times

August of last year is when they started

doing this Chinese authorities are

putting pressure on prominent local

economists to avoid discussing negative

Trends such as deflation as concerns

Mount about beijing's ability to boost a

flagging recovery in the world's second

biggest economy

oopsies well guess what covering it up

didn't work and now you have the weakest

core CPI in 3 years and now you

literally have a former Central Bank

governor of the Chinese Communist Party

say that's the um um People's Bank of

China saying uh rooting out deflation

has become a top priority oh so now yall

are starting to admit you made a little

oopsy dupsies remember back in the day

China gave you know during Co China gave

like $500 of consumer stimulus to

Consumers while the United States

provided the equivalent of like 55 to

six $5,500 to $6,000 so like 10x the

stimulus China doesn't stimulate their

consumers they stimulate their job

providers but that just leads to more

deflation and probably malinvestment by

keeping bankrupt manufacturers open now

on one hand it's probably good for

manufacturing costs to go down but there

is that deflationary Doom Loop you have

to consider so let's think for a moment

about the good the good is that maybe if

manufacturers are competing for more

work it's now cheaper for Apple to

manufacture in China it's now cheaper

for Tesla to manufacture in China great

if it's cheaper to manufacture there you

could build cars there or build phones

there export them to other countries and

great you don't have to go to IND

or you know Taiwan or some other country

just do it in China because it's gotten

so freaking cheap to do it there this

whole idea that oh D globalization is

going to cause inflation bull crap I've

been saying it for years reglobalization

and it'll be even cheaper than it was

before because you'll face

deflation that's exactly what you've got

right now because the financial times

calls demand

lackluster oh it's much more than

lackluster confidence in China's economy

is crushing in China to the point where

consumer confidence is at the same

levels that we saw when Co hit and

stayed down during the entire real

estate crisis you haven't seen any like

heartbeat over here it's like a flatline

it's bad foreign companies called

China's policymaking unpredictable

unfair or uninvestable per The Economist

foreign direct investment in China is at

the worst level on record down at least

30% year-over-year in just the first 7

months of 2024 and declining and it's

already been declining it's pretty bad

and some policy makers in China say

China has just killed long-term

confidence on China now some say well

China's at least trying to loosen laws

for entrepreneur to try to stir up

demand but they could just flip-flop

again remember what they did during the

co lockdowns lockdown lock down hey

everybody can go open everything's fine

oh no that kind of stuff can happen with

regulations as well in fact some say

that's what started the the real estate

crisis in China you know you had this uh

this uh uh incentive from the government

to just keep building real estate

whether it was profitable or not so

companies were taking on debt on debt on

debt on debt they were selling

properties that weren't built yet and so

you were getting these poorly built

properties because they were already

sold the builders didn't really have an

incentive anymore to do a great job and

then all of a sudden China's like you

know we don't like how much debt you all

have cranks them down with the three red

lines policy and oh my gosh we created a

real estate collapse what yeah wow China

messing with your free market oh what

free market anyway so how could

potentially a depression a deflationary

recession or whatever you want to call

it whatever it ends up being affect

America well think about this first of

all if it gets so bad like initially we

think oh this could be good for

manufacturers because you can make

things cheaper which basically means if

you have deflation in China you're

actually probably exporting deflation to

America so you have more uh deflation

here because our import prices are lower

this is good H if you have a recession

in China you might also have commodity

prices decline which if you look at the

bcom index which is just the Bloomberg

commodities index for you know what's

going on with commodity prices if you go

year-to dat dude Rock freaking bottom

year-to date we're at the lowest level

of commodity prices year-to date lowest

level in the last one year and quite

frankly we're at the lowest level of

commodity prices since about August of

2021 so this either signals that you're

going into a recession or it signals

that China's in a freaking recession or

Worse

both so uh now again Commodities could

be a good thing in other words commodity

prices coming down oil prices go down

gas is cheaper for us In America which

hopefully stimulates consumer demand in

America hopefully uh you get you know

lower cost of goods sold again at

companies like Tesla but what happens

when those factories just still can't

make a buck in China and they go

bankrupt well now all of a sudden you

could actually instead of having really

loose Supply chains you can tighten

Supply chains again basically what you

open up the risk to is some form of a

Black Swan now I'm not trying to

Doomsday here suggest that there's

definitely going to be a Black Swan but

when you have this sort of crisis of

companies going bankrupt in China

there's a possibility that these Chinese

companies have to dump whatever assets

they have those could be american-based

assets like treasuries stocks various

corporate bonds you name it you could

get even more of a liquidity crisis

companies or businesses that made

investments in China lose money there so

they have to free up money elsewhere

could be bad for crypto assets across

the board it doesn't really matter what

it is people are trying to get out of

China but this also creates an issue

because the people who are still trying

to hang on like the business owners or

the companies or the Executives that

have assets elsewhere might have to dump

those so pain in China can be felt and

rippled throughout the entire world

again we don't want a Black Swan to

happen but it can and China could be

what causes it now it's unlikely to be a

carry trade style speculative crash like

we had with the Japanese uh um Yen uh

here you have the Yuan also the ren mini

as the currency system the um the black

swans though not just Market volatility

which you can get from these companies

dumping less again the carry trade I

think still a possibility though Supply

chains failing but you could also just

get debt failures and cascading debt

failures so when companies that owe

money can't make their payments anymore

because they're going bankrupt now all

of a sudden certain financial

institutions that were lenders could go

BK and that could trickle over it's very

complicated to say exactly who gets hit

but here's some examples of companies

that have a lot of money coming from

China and these are just some examples

you could generally look at this

yourself uh and and evaluate for

yourself how companies you might be

investing in are exposed but I think

it's very interesting to know that

22.7% of Tesla's Revenue in 2023 came

from the Chinese market so yes it's nice

to have cheaper manufacturing ability in

China but if you're also in a position

where you know nearly a quarter of your

revenue is coming from China that's not

as great now Nvidia used to have about a

quarter of its Revenue coming from China

but that's that's now substantially

declined because of the air Russian

export control restrictions limiting

some of their ex a lot of their exports

to China at least for the greatest chips

they go through other countries now and

get black market smuggled 18.9% of Apple

revenues come from China and 8% of

Starbucks Revenue comes from China but

30% of their stores are in China that's

because over the last 3 or four years

they made a big bet on doubling the

number of stores they have in China

thinking that they'd be able to sell

Starbucks American coffee in China but

with a million restaurants going

bankrupt in China so far just in 2024

people like

oh oh no no no no I'm not buying

Starbucks I'm going to go buy luckin

coffee or something cheaper in China why

buy Starbucks American brand when you

could get it for a fraction of the cost

it's just freaking coffee and the

Starbucks Coffee ain't that good anyway

when you could get that somewhere else

now I know they're trying to shove the

Chipotle CEO in over there but good luck

that's all I got to say about that one

Nike's got about 15% of their revenue in

China caterpillar about 5 to 10% of

their revenue in China maybe more

they're a little less clear in it but

usually you could just find this

information in the annual reports for

these companies so I'm a little bit

nervous about China and I'm tempted to

decrease my EXP exposure uh to Chinese

markets you know broadly because I'm I

can't bet I've I've said for years I'm

not going to bet on the Chinese consumer

I don't know China that well but what I

do know is based on what we're seeing

even coming from China now is that it's

probably a lot worse than we think and

I'm not going to be the person to

speculate that the hints that we're

getting that it's worse than we think or

wrong and it's actually better than we

think so I'm going to stay away from the

China a place uh now again I feel bad

because you know like I I think Baba is

selling at a huge discount maybe it's

already priced in a lot of that pain

it's a very inexpensive company but

that's only assuming that its growth

holds up based on the LIE of the Chinese

data that we might be getting what if

the Chinese data is so wrong that we're

getting that the growth numbers are

actually way worse for GDP and therefore

future growth expectations for Alibaba

uh and you know so JD or whatever some

of these other companies are actually

way worse teu than the others I mean we

already saw some of the reports come out

like teu was a freaking disaster uh you

know what happens at that point when the

real data comes out and people are like

oh my gosh we've been misled these

aren't companies that are actually

growing they're actually shrinking I

mean you you here I'll open up the week

chart here really quickly on the uh uh

the company working uh Teemu it's still

not at a low here but look at this

decline you just recently had here I

mean you just recently went from 150

bucks down to 92 and that's just because

some of the data is starting to show up

in earnings well what happens when all

of the data of this pain shows up are

these going to be even lower like what

we saw in the 2022 stock market sh sell

off in America except now with real

Chinese data who knows but there are

things that I'm watching anyway these

are my thoughts if you have questions

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as well thanks so much for watching the

video we'll see you in the next one

goodbye folks and good luck these things

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congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P Financial

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

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