Tesla Stock is Uninvestable.

Tesla stock could be the buying

opportunity of a lifetime but it could

also bankrupt you before you ever get

that opportunity of a lifetime unless

things rapidly change at a Tesla notably

with Elon Musk after all consider this

Bloomberg intelligence assites that

China's new energy vehicle sales are

robust despite a decline in Auto Sales

because of covid and of course we do

know that Tesla Shanghai has recently

cut prices to compete but we still have

robust sales for nevs up 58 in November

year over year Tesla's growth in China

year over year was in excess of 80

percent now while yes there is a

Slowdown that is leading to some signs

of concerns for demand for Tesla

products in China in December the

broader industry in China is doing

substantially worse consider in November

while navs across the board grew 58

year-over-year China is Auto industry

but broader Trend and had a nine percent

decline gas powered vehicle sales are

plummeting new Energy electric vehicle

contributions to total sales are

increasing a year ago they sat at 21 now

they sit last month at 36 percent this

means more cars are being sold that are

all electric the trend is

electrification the trend is your friend

Tesla is one of the vehicle companies

with the largest moat around its EV

brand because of its technology in

self-driving otherwise you'd actually

have real competition and there'd be

many more risk factors for Tesla but

because of Tesla's investment into

self-driving technology that is Leaps

and Bounds likely to the tune of five

years ahead of the competition with even

Apple now delaying any of their

self-driving car or car in general hopes

until 2026 plus yet another delay

Apple's really good at delaying things

until they've perfected it so so

personally I don't see it happening

before 2030 but hey knock on wood maybe

Apple will come around in the meantime

stick with the iPads and the iPhones

okay still good margins on those apple

has pricing power Tesla however though

the concern is maybe losing its pricing

power even though commodity prices are

starting to rotate down this is a very

good thing because even if prices for

cars come down as long as commodity

prices come down Tesla could actually

maintain or expand margins in addition

to that we have a little bit of a

short-term footage cycle mostly do when

it comes to demand due to that new

energy vehicle credit for an electric

vehicle in the United States purchased

in 2023 as a result Tesla is promoting

an approximately three thousand seven

hundred fifty dollar credit if you buy a

Tesla like a model 3. in December which

is about half as much as the federal tax

credit you would get next year and this

somewhat makes sense because you would

get that 3 750 discount immediately if

you bought a Tesla in December but you

would actually not get that 7 500

vehicle credit until 2024 when you file

your taxes because that's the way tax

benefits work you buy a vehicle in 2023

you don't actually get the tax benefit

or break until you file your taxes the

next year which basically is somewhere

around a 14 15 month delay on getting

that money so there's an opportunity

cost there however I found that

generally people are really bad at

analyzing opportunity cost and the time

value of money money therefore it just

wouldn't surprise me if most buyers have

in their minds thirty seven hundred

fifty dollars in December or 7 500 in

January

January it is at the same time

unfortunately of course as Tesla

Shanghai has exceeded shipments of

Tesla's across out of Shanghai by aha or

out of the Shanghai facility of over a

hundred thousand vehicles in November

unfortunately Tesla is facing the

biggest fud story of its life

and the reality is it's a true fud story

it's not fake news it is a story that

could actually the valuation of

Tesla and unfortunately hamper its

abilities to promote a green Energy

Future which is the entire goal of Tesla

it's a reason people invest in Tesla

green Energy Future we want semi trucks

we want electric uh pickup trucks like

cyber trucks we want solar roofs we want

solar panels we want grid batteries we

want home batteries we want green

Society wants to move to a sustainable

future unfortunately Elon Musk is

single-handedly jeopardizing both

potential Futures that he is seeking

Elon Musk seeks a future of free speech

and one of green energy so we can

protect the climate protect our

ecosystem and eventually get to Mars but

let's focus on some near-term goals free

speech I think most people are big fans

of free speech within the bounds of the

law I don't think anyone really

disagrees with that and I don't think

anybody really disagrees that we should

have some form of reasonable transition

to sustainable energy I mean after all

when companies like BP and Occidental

are working on carbon capture

Technologies and solar farms and wind

farms we know there's a desire for a

green and sustainable future that's okay

it's not partisan unfortunately Elon

musk's partisan talks which many on

mostly the right say oh well he's just

speaking the truth by speaking the truth

whether it is or is not the truth is not

the point of this video by speaking out

and making an opinion what he's actually

doing in my opinion is risking the

sustainable future for Tesla and risking

the potential Free Speech future of

Twitter see consider this if Elon musk's

Behavior leads advertisers to leave

whether or not it's right or wrong is a

bad Disney business decision which could

lead to the bankruptcy of Twitter the

bankruptcy of Twitter removes free

speech from our environment it actually

has the opposite effect

so Elon musk's business Behavior could

actually hurt free speech

the same is actually true at Tesla not

only could the Twitter overhang which

has for many months been affecting Tesla

negatively not only could the Tessa the

Twitter overhang over a potential

bankruptcy even though I don't think

they're going to go bankrupt elon's

alluded to it and it certainly isn't

helping prevent that idea with more

layoffs or people quitting on a regular

basis more drama on a daily basis in the

mainstream media deep deep thought cycle

right now Elon is not doing us any favor

by exceedingly ostracizing people

increasing the demands on advertisers to

leave Twitter and if that happens

bankruptcy at Twitter or cash flow

issues at Twitter means more selling

pressure on Tesla stock now some people

say Kevin you shouldn't be concerned

about the short-term valuation of Tesla

I'm not but what you should be concerned

about is the mission of Tesla when

Tesla's share price goes down it

actually limits Tesla's ability to

attack attract top tier Talent it when

Elon takes political positions it limits

the people who apply to work at Tesla to

contribute to a sustainable future it

limits people's interest in funding new

projects at Tesla or even working with

Tesla in the first place it's a big

problem and it is a problem that I think

at the moment Elon Musk is either being

blind to or he just doesn't realize is

actually important because when you hurt

the valuation of Tesla it's not just

about the individual shareholders that

are getting hurt it's about the future

opportunities to actually invest in the

goals that you're trying to achieve it's

harder to negotiate supplier contracts

especially if those suppliers have any

political bias that stands in contrast

to yours it is actually harder for you

to buy land in certain cities or

countries where you want to build a new

gigafactory because maybe you've

ostracized specifically the politicians

that you should be trying to win over

for the benefit of a clean and

sustainable future Now personal only I

think Elon Musk is going through a

pretty dark time I I don't know but I

think there's a chance he's going

through a high level of stress a lack of

sleep a high level of frustration a high

level of criticism in the media or from

people in social media even myself

included uh and and really what happens

sometimes when people feel like there's

so much stress around them they're not

sleeping enough they're frustrated

they're trying to do their best which I

believe he's trying to do their his best

is you kind of lash out and and

sometimes the best thing to do in a case

like this is just take a break take a

break from from talking to people take a

break from social media take a few days

off of Twitter right relax a little bit

and try to reset a little bit and get

your mind re-centered but until then I

don't know that Elon Musk is actually

fit to be a CEO of anything right now

because I do think he's in a little bit

of of a state of

well frustration quite frankly and

stress and that's being showcased Elon

Musk

could quit as

SEO of Tesla and quit as CEO of Twitter

as soon as possible Elon Musk should

stand aside he's established Tesla let

it run without the disaster of Elam once

Elon which I expect within the next two

to six months Elon establishes Twitter

on more solid footing he should also get

out stand aside think up a new project

let these great businesses run unimpeded

from your political speech I'm not

opposed to you sharing your opinion but

when it affects the businesses that you

are running to promote the best for

mankind

and woman cat which is promoting free

speech and climate change

the actions of Elon are actually doing

exactly the opposite and that is what

most aren't seeing in it's really

dangerous right now it's not about the

share price

but we could talk about the share price

as well you have to consider this

institutions cannot touch Tesla right

now it's a hot potato or at least they

it would be very difficult for them to

do so when Elon Musk is essentially

being

aggressive it makes it very difficult

for Pension funds hedge funds financial

advisors and unions to justify holding

Tesla in their portfolio so they have to

sell it because they have they can't

spend their whole day explaining to

their investors why they're holding on

to a company like Tesla where the stock

is substantially underperforming the

market and you've got Elon

that used to be a benefit now it is a

liability in addition to that you have

substantial tax loss harvesting now all

of these things have almost nothing to

do with the fundamental value of Tesla

some softening Demand by China should

have negligible impact some impact would

be okay on the fundamental value of

Tesla that's understandable that we

don't really expect that to be some a

substantial portion of it of an issue we

also realize that yes there could be

some downside risk in you know if less

people buy Teslas because of political

concerns that could affect the network

effects of Tesla fewer people buying

Teslas in the future however those could

all go away if Elon just shut up today

and just focused on providing good

products that focused on climate

Transitions and focused on Free Speech

alone rather than than you know doing

what he's doing if you just focused on

providing a good product

what you might be doing at the same time

but if you solely focused on that people

will come back I expect people will come

back to Tesla because it has the Mote of

self-driving it has the product moat it

has a great product

so you have to consider

institutions can't touch Tesla you're in

a massive Twitter foot cycle and you

also have substantial tax loss

harvesting the best thing that people

could do in my opinion not Financial

advice right now is move potentially out

of Tesla stock take large losses on

Tesla if you have losses on Tesla which

many people do offset your other gains

to lower your taxes maybe take a 30 gain

like that move that money potentially

into an ETF that has a large exposure to

Tesla and now what have you done you've

taken a tax advantage and then moved

into a vehicle that is going to give you

even more tax advantages in the future

remember after all Tesla solar batteries

Tesla semi Tesla pickup these are all

incredible green opportunities and what

Elon is doing with Twitter is driving

free speech he will achieve a climate

transition energy transition and Free

Speech transition

but he is hurting the reality of those

happening at least in the short term

with his yapping

this is where I think if Elon just

focused on providing a good quality

product

and left the opinions to other people

things would end up being just fine and

this would actually make Tesla look like

an incredible buying opportunity if you

compare Tesla today to a company that's

actually growing pretty well as well you

look at a company like Chipotle selling

at a PEG ratio of also roughly around a

one with about an EPS forecast a growth

of an average of about 28 to 30 percent

which is roughly in line with what Wall

Street expects for Tesla you have two

companies selling for around 50 ish

times uh earnings and and a PEG ratio of

somewhere around 50 divided by 30 so

about 1.66

however if Tesla ended up pulling off a

50 compounded annual rate of growth of

eps we could be closer to a one peg the

valuation for Tesla would actually be

quite phenomenal in that case the only

way the valuation fundamentally shifts

or or the fundamentals for Tesla shift

is if demand does fall off a cliff or

commodity prices don't come down to the

point where margins can be maintained

that means the flood cycle we're going

through now could be a substantial

buying opportunity but my belief is if

Elon wants to be spokesperson for the

anti-welk world he should not be the CEO

of Twitter or the CEO of Tesla he could

be a researcher and and and product uh

Creator but get the opinion you know and

then talk all your opinions all you want

but not as an executive leader who has

to make business decisions whether or

not things are true things could be true

but there are just some things you don't

bring up when you're trying to create a

platform whose purpose is Free Speech

each when by you talking with extreme

opinions you potentially ruin what could

enable you to have free speech and

that's advertising support the same is

true for Tesla's energy goals my take

thank you so much for watching we'll see

in the next one goodbye