f*ck

stock market indices are giving us a

major warning sign and we've got to pay

attention to what could potentially be

going on here first and foremost the

NASDAQ 100 is on today today on track to

hit its first time this year of being

negative for 5 days in a row this is

very bad because if we get to a sixth

day in a row we haven't seen six red

days in a row in the NASDAQ since before

2019 it's been over 5 years

this is a red flag that potentially

markets are saying hey look we have

gotten very euphoric we've made a lot of

money in Bitcoin we've made a lot of

money in stocks we've made a lot of

money betting on Trump before the

election we made a lot of money on Trump

after the election that's great but if

it turns into profit taking it's going

to occur at a very precarious time for

the US economy I want you to for a

moment consider the combination of a few

different factors here

and we're going to write these down so

you could see these broadly simply and

together very very simple the first

thing that we have to know is that the

Federal Reserve is now only at a coin

toss for whether or not they're actually

going to reduce interest rates by 25

basis points in the December meeting

this is not ideal so think about this

this means we have a hawkish

Fed as as a downside right this is a

downside risk because the risk is the

fact is looking at data in the past and

they are Hawking too much keeping rates

too high for too long to crush our

economy this is very bad especially at a

time when we're equal with the job

openings to unemployed rate well what

happens when all of a sudden you

actually start getting layoffs in the

first quarter now you're going to have

more unemployed people than you have

jobs for them which is very bad for the

economy add to that the level of 27

weeks unemployed skyrocketing which is

very recessionary

temporary job hires plummeting and some

of the job openings that we think are

open might not actually be open mostly

because companies don't have to hire as

much now we got AI to help us AI doesn't

replace everyone but it's certainly at

the margin probably going to affect at

least 10 to 15% of jobs out there and

that's scary so hawkish fed is what we

have right now uh and then we also have

hawkish yields which creates a downside

risk this creates pain onto the the

economy because you're increasing the

cost to borrow for machinery for houses

for equipment for Autos now the auto

companies are buying down interest rates

leading to a beat on retail sales for

October thanks to Autos but that all

goes into EPS somebody is paying for

that so you got hawkish fed hawkish

yields but on top of that you have a uh

a hawkish well I should say uh topping

uh greedy Market which also presents

downside risk I mean don't get me wrong

I love seeing people make money off of

paler I've had a line on paler and

indicated that paler is likely if it

keeps running to run all the way up to

6723 and quite frankly we're at about 65

right now it's up 8% today on the idea

that hey since it moved from the New

York Stock Exchange to NASDAQ it might

be eligible for Nasdaq inclusion you

might not know this but there are

actually multiple stock exchanges right

there's New York Stock Exchange where

rang the bell I had the honor of doing

that I love it it's a beautiful building

it's it's on Wall Street NASDAQ is

actually more of your technology Hub if

you will uh whereas like your Dow style

companies are usually over at the na at

the NYC uh they call it the NY uh but

you go to NASDAQ that's actually in Time

Square that's where rather than ringing

the bell with the hammer technically you

push a button uh there's more of an

electronic panel that you push a button

on over at NAS but anyway there's hope

that NASDAQ will be included in the QQQ

basically the NASDAQ 100 which you

shouldn't buy QQQ anyway if you're going

to hold it long term you should buy QQQ

M because the fees are lower it's the

same thing they just Market QQQ and they

make more money off you there because

most people don't know about QQQ M but

that's really a topic for also a

different video but the point is I don't

even know if you're going to want to be

a part of the q's because right now the

q's are tanking that's because Apple

Microsoft uh and and uh Google and meta

have all topped out since the summer and

they're either trading sideways or down

so your mega capsu rotating down and the

risk here is to the downside that you

are seeing very few companies actually

keep this Market propped up you could

see this very clearly by heading over to

the CNN greed and fear index where we've

actually just moved from greed to

neutral intraday because markets are

starting to sell down but look at Market

momentum just two days ago we were at

the extreme greed car uh uh

characterization on Market

momentum but the underlying is breaking

apart the number of new 52- we highs is

actually an extreme fear you're at stock

stock price strength which is the number

of stocks contributing to upside number

of winners versus losers at extreme fear

yet at the same time you're at extreme

fear for stocks actually hitting new

high

valuations index momentum is in the

greed category and options are in greed

and two days ago they were in extreme

greed which means people are speculating

they're speculating at the top while

underneath things are starting to turn

rotten and I want you to think about

this for a moment why things are

starting to turn rotten well you know uh

40% of small caps in the Russell uh 2000

are uh are either zombies or uh

struggling to or or you know to repay

debts slot profitable this is a danger

these are bad Investments to make if you

do Trend towards a recession now

obviously the upshot the upshot is hey

you know Trump leads to hiring uh Trump

leads to uh lower taxes uh Trump leads

to a boom in the economy you know Bill

akman believes this bill akman just

mentioned that he thinks we're going to

have a massive boom in the economy under

Trump and I actually believe that lower

taxes and more hiring will happen the

question is and nobody knows this the

question though is when I personally

believe Donald Trump and Congress may

cut taxes in March or may or whatever

but you're not going to see that benefit

until

2026 so you're not going to see the

benefit of lower taxes or hiring until

2026 in the meantime you fire government

workers uh and stocks correct you're

going to walk into a recession the

Federal Reserve is hawking saying oh the

economy is so good but they're ignoring

the underlying labor revisions the

terrible underlying revisions to the

downside we keep getting over and over

and over again and so the indicators

that are telling them things are

problematic they're ignoring and they're

picking up on you know little volatile

signs like retail sales which are a

super lagging indicator uh or little

increases which is normal little

fluctuations in CPI and PPI and

suggesting oh you know maybe we need to

slow down a hawkish Fed is a downside

risk yields at highs that we haven't

seen since the beginning of the year you

know about uh April when people were

worried about a second wave of inflation

which is not happening Supply chains

have expanded so much Supply chains are

so loose right now we could quite

frankly like please give us more demand

for our manufacturers uh and and our

companies because our cap capabilities

of logistically supplying products and

goods and services right now are so

expanded businesses are like please I am

ready for more business I went through

the covid boom I was not ready for that

much business now I'm ready for more

business but I'm not getting more

business that leads to declining prices

which is deflationary

which is actually good in the long term

because prices come down but it's bad

when your wages deflate you know wages

are

already uh already indicating uh

softness and uh and and a higher risk of

deflating than inflating so if you think

you're going to get a raise you should

you should hope that you're not getting

a pay

cut hawkish fed downside risk hawkish

yields downside risk topping SLG greedy

Market on uh eup

hope momentum and call options all of

that is a downside risk zombies in small

caps downside risk wages indicating

softness downside risk a massive lack of

pricing power at uh big companies that

is a downside risk I'm trying to look

ahead personally over the next 12 to 18

months what do I think has the greatest

pricing power you know this is IMO not

personalized uh advice obviously but I

think the greatest PP over the next 12

to 18 months which I personally think we

should be looking ahead in Investments

not backwards uh I think frankly because

we're likely to head towards a recession

because the feds overdoing their

tightness here we're going to start

getting emergency Cuts next year my take

uh just like in 2008 by the way 2007

they cut by 50 basis points everybody

cheered soft Landing markets rallied to

alltime new highs massive Euphoria and

markets yay fed stuck the lot soft

Landing small caps rally everything's

great by January what do they do by

January 75 basis point emergency cut

because things are starting to go poopy

doopy it's not good look at the leadup

in the Japanese Yen by the way this is

another one that should that should

scare you a little bit have you seen

what's been going on just go one USD to

JPY okay I'll show you in just a moment

but what I do want to quickly also show

you if you haven't seen it yet is uh

this morning uh I actually posted that

uh I thought Tesla was going to go to uh

to retest a 318 you know it opened at

like 3:13 this morning uh so uh so my

take uh right here was absent big Reddit

open which we didn't get big Reddit open

we got like sort of a slow decline but

absent big Reddit open I think Tesla

will retest

31862 and and folks you can't make this

up you literally cannot make it up look

at the lines at the open

we started running to 318 we lost it we

came down we went right to 318

Consolidated around 318 tried to break

out couldn't fell we bounced at this is

a trend line I'm going to shout out a

course member or pretty sure was a

course member maybe somebody in the

market open live but anyway this is

actually a trend line where you take

October 20th and I think it's September

30th it's technically a diagonal line

but on the day it looks flat it actually

created a floor and then we went right

back to the 31862 line so I gave gave

this Alpha this is Alpha in my opinion I

gave this for free uh in the alpha

report you could get this by going to

meetkevin.com alfha literally free

meetkevin.com Alpha if you're an

international person make sure you click

the little gray uh link under uh the um

uh the yellow bar right you can see that

uh right here outside us or Canada click

here otherwise if you're in the US or

Canada click here we'll text you the

report will email you the report I have

to pay money every single day to send

this report out for text but but it's so

valuable and I want to give you this

value that that I think this is a good

uh and I'm a big fan of providing value

I I I think that's that's why we exist

in life we we don't exist to make money

we exist to provide value for for our

families for the people around us for

our neighborhoods for our communities

and you are my community thank you so

much I really appreciate you all

so back to bearishness not personalized

advice the best pricing power and then

we had a talk JPY over the next 12 to 18

months my

opinion I know this sounds like like I'm

going fully like here okay I get it

but but again I I I may be early I may

come early

often but I think I come strong with my

ideas uh and plans

okay I think I may be early but I think

I'm

right 20e treasuries

uh

moonshot uh over the next uh 12 to 18

and mortgage

companies most boring Investments ever

most boring Investments ever but these

win in recessionary environments in my

opinion my take obviously you could have

liquidity issues and people might have

to sell their bonds or sell mortgage

stocks or whatever because they need the

liquidity whatever I don't know I don't

know with guarantees what's going to

happen but let's uh let's now look at uh

one USD to JPY what does that look like

it looks like a little poopy doopy dooo

it doesn't look very good all right one

usd2

JPY all right let's go out to the one

year all

right you you see this rise in the JPY

right here or or sorry the USD did the

JPY when was the last time this peaked

out the last time this peaked out was

right here to the day the peak was July

10th to the day my friends what did July

10th symbolize in America the top of the

freaking market look at anything qes spy

Russell now we've gone back to some of

those levels same thing here JPY uh you

know USD to JPY has done that as well

but that was indicative of a top not a

time to

buy so this is a risk factor again of a

topping Market you know don't add to

this obviously the Euro uh crisis and

potential recession which contributes to

uh uh potentially uh lower trade and

lower US GDP you know I made a video on

this actually another video that I

encourage you to watch is uh just look

uh search um meet cevin Germany crisis I

just posted one a couple days ago highly

encourage you to watch that also type me

10 investments in recession uh you know

we talk we talk robotics we talk a lot

of different things over here I think

it's a very very good video uh and

everybody should watch it but uh but but

my take is that the things that are

stacking up bearishly or becoming so

enumerated while at the same time you

have a Federal Reserve that's like oh no

everything's bullish everything's fine

part of me thinks they're trying to self

fill that everything is fine and

everything is not fine which I hate

suggesting because I think he's probably

a nice person I hate suggesting that

Powell may be trying to lie to us to

manipulate markets to keep things well I

don't know if that's me trying to like

you know is this trying to like play

into a confirmation bias or whatever

maybe maybe so you have to take this all

with a grain of salt that's why I say it

could be wrong but I I need you to

remember this too when let's write this

down when the market crashes when the

market crashes we tend to lose jobs okay

and this is when the stock market

crashes we tend to lose jobs watch this

when the market rallies we tend not to

gain jobs which is bad because we need

jobs to sustain this economy that we're

in uh so so this isn't great you know

there's some of the other things just to

sort of list out some of the other

concerns that I have just so you could

you know watch these change over time

yourself as well uh we talked about this

already 27 weeks unemployed uh level

rising that is recessionary that

generally only goes up during a

recession uh or after a recession has

occurred and uh and you know it's

because it's during the recession like

the tail end you start kind of seeing it

who knows maybe we're the tail and a

recession hour booming out of it I mean

I don't think so but it's possible I

mean we generally don't know until

hindsight uh AI bubble uh you know

you've got the AMD layoffs the applied

uh materials Miss arm and AMD Miss

slightly and stocks sell off uh this is

just the beginning uh but uh remember

once llms are a

commodity then uh then infrastructure

sure uh buildout becomes

redundant uh so that's not good that's a

risk the

uh you know some other items that we've

seen the yield curve is a disaster yield

curve warning uh you know we already

know about that the uh Som rule trigger

and UNT trigger trigger UNT trigger this

happened in 2006 as well happened in '

06 as well uh and then of course we see

the uh decline in the 3-month average of

the uh uh you know job gains private

payrolls negative private payrolls

negative all of these things could turn

around and I could be entirely wrong

right all of these could

U-turn and uh

everything could then be

fine but I'm not uh optimistic as the

trend is

rough uh uh

so those are my thoughts I again I hate

saying it uh but if we get a

Christmas sell down let's write this

down

too if

Christmas coal sell off between now and

then then uh recession odds increase

substantially so I I I'm not happy about

saying that you know I I feel bad I

don't I don't want to be in a place

where uh you know we we feel that uh

people are going to lose their jobs and

so you know the regular advice that I

have for people who watch my channel is

uh and and we'll write this down too is

uh don't copy me but but be aware right

uh pay off

debt save money uh and insulate your job

work harder now not

then anyway that's my take make sure to

go to Meek kevin.com Alpha to get your

Alpha report uh love you all thank you

so very much for being here you're good

people and uh uh I just I hope everybody

can win bigly uh in in the long run and

get through whatever it is we're getting

through cheers folks goodbye why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take