Latest on Omicron | Sharp Economic Decline Expected [Jan 14]

folks bloomberg is reporting that we

might end up experiencing a sharp and

short decline in markets thanks to

omicron therefore let's get into an

omicron update keep in mind you can go

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everyone meet kevin here with a quick a

covid update we have some good news new

york city coveted cases have reached a

peak and are beginning their descent as

of wednesday positivity testing or

testing and positivity rates stood at 17

making the third straight day where

fewer than one in five new york tests

came back positive the 17 positivity

rate is still much higher than the 1.5

percent we saw just two months ago but

it is down dramatically from the 30

positivity rate that we saw in the past

few weeks

this folks uh on screen now is the chart

of a covet cases in new york city you

can clearly see an inflection point down

about three and a half to four weeks

into the beginning of the search the

beginning of the surge in new york came

right around december 18th we're about

three and a half to four weeks from that

right now to where we started seeing an

inflection point to the downside over

the last two to three days here which is

very good news we hope that this

continues to the downside folks we are

seeing similar inflection points in our

national data for the united kingdom we

are starting to see a little bit of an

inflection point up in germany one of

the reasons germany might be seeing a

little bit of an inflection up after

this down is that we believe that the

first wave here in the middle was a

delta wave which then subsided and now

the omicron wave is coming to germany

canada appears to have hit somewhat of a

ceiling which is a blessing the united

kingdom has had a substantial surge that

really began around december 14th and

that surge crested around january 5th

about three weeks later and for the last

week we've been in decline in the united

kingdom and the rate of decline has

subsided we've not just hit a ceiling we

have subsided with the rate of decline

very very positive france and italy are

starting to show tiny little signs that

they might be slowing here at the top

but it might be too soon to tell given

that we have had little pauses in data

reads as well for uh for france and

italy so we'll keep an eye on this now

uh one thing to keep an eye on is we

have not seen a substantial inflection

point to the upside yet in excess deaths

per 100 000 people this is because in

general we have seen

uh in the biggest well i should say the

largest inflection point up we saw in

excess deaths uh this is how many people

we would expect to die versus how many

people are actually dying the largest

increase we saw the largest bump here

was really when when delta started

spreading uh so if we look at around

august

through september and then briefly

thereafter about six weeks after that's

when we really started seeing an

inflection point up in death

right around here in early november

excess deaths in the united states which

aligns with when individuals might start

dying after covet exposure due to delta

but we're not really seeing a

substantial inflection point to the

upside especially since we've had a

delta search that lasted throughout the

northeast of the united states through

through november delta was still surging

right we have now really seen that sort

of inflection point up on omicron which

is definitely a sign

that omicron is at least based on excess

deaths less deadly unfortunately it's

very difficult to look at

death data for covet and omicron because

take a look at this when we look at

cumulative deaths

due to covet in the united kingdom let's

say the chart looks like it's going up

but there's a disclaimer here that says

limited testing and challenges in the

attribute in attributing deaths to covet

may mislead or or may not be an accurate

count of the true number of deaths from

coven and so we are expecting that the

true number of deaths from coe is

substantially lower

uh than with other uh variants like the

delta variant uh of course that that

doesn't help us discern why we see this

sort of spike here the seven day average

and again it's possibly just because

more people are testing positive with

covin

uh and then who are dying from other

reasons now uh we are still seeing more

and more evidence that the uh prior

either prior illness with covet or prior

illness with get this the common cold as

we talked about and broke the story

about three days ago

is helping limit uh individuals from

actually being symptomatic with covid

this is leading less people to get

tested than we actually expect we think

we're only catching about one in five

actual positive cases of covid given uh

at home testing or

lack of testing completely but again

individuals who have been exposed to the

cold or who had the cold might actually

have a strong t cell response against

covid this is very positive in terms of

a development and it makes sense because

the common four to five strains of the

common cold are human coronaviruses

which means they're a type of

coronavirus uh compared to the sars cov2

that we have now with coven

uh and uh and we're seeing that immunity

transfer over at least to some degree

still being studied but but very good

news

dr fauci believes that everybody is

eventually going to get coveted uh and

uh well essentially as we begin to live

with it and i think this is quite an

interesting u-turn coming from fouchy

the white house will be distributing a

10 million cova tests per month

and uh per month to schools 5 million

rapid tests 5 million pcr tests of

course tbd when those will actually

arrive

israel plans to administer a fourth dose

of the vaccine for individuals 60 and

over as well as to medical staff who

have had their last booster at least

four months ago soon after this

announcement israel released a

preliminary study showing that the

fourth shot generated a five-fold boost

in antibodies in the week following the

booster but is this really necessary

according to the european drug

regulators group there is still no data

supporting the need for a fourth shot

and went as far as saying that multiple

boosters

might ultimately

lead to they wrote potential problems

for immune system response

this was the

head of biological health threats at the

european medicines agency the ema and

they're basically saying hey we're not

sure if we should be boosting folks

every four months that's three times a

year this might be too much and we could

end up having larger immune system

problems providing so many uh boosters

so not a raging endorsement by a medical

agency

for boosters they prefer a once a year

booster like a fluva flu shot whereas

you go into the flu season you take a

shot but you don't regularly take one to

try to get this annual protection uh by

just constantly jabbing yourself or

getting job the world health

organization actually reiterated this

indicating that repeated booster doses

of the original vaccines are likely to

be unsustainable keep in mind that

coveted cases have increased 55 percent

for the week ending january 9th weekly

deaths remained near unchanged from a

week prior

numbers wise and that's globally numbers

wise this is 15 million new cases and 43

000 deaths last week the big question

though for how covet is going to

continue to impact markets has to do

with china for example in one of the

largest ports and production and a

production hub for foreign businesses in

china china ordered a half-day break

just for kova testing bringing fears

that omicron might disrupt global supply

chains just like delta did hopefully it

doesn't but china has a zero covered

policy and multiple cities have gone

into lockdown ahead of the winter

olympics over 20 million people are now

confined by these lockdowns in china all

vehicles have been banned from roads

moving into

one one city one such city as an example

it has a population of 5.5 million you

can't even drive into the city right now

and so the economic impact china has on

the rest of the world is obviously

substantial specifically with regards to

manufacturing uh the production of goods

and services but then also

shipping them getting them out of china

according to bloomberg we're already

seeing trucker shortages and given the

lockdowns in china and this is an

exacerbation of trucker shortages that

we've seen in the united states as well

anyway this is a brief update on what's

going on with kovid thank you so much

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