Lucid Stock.

oh man hey everyone meet kevin here in

this video we gotta talk about a lucid

stock ticker el said folks y'all know

that i've been following lucid since the

spac was just a rumor back in january of

2021 we saw and lived the explosion

together of lucid stock going to the

freaking moon shortly after the spac

actually became a confirmed spec of

course the price then

plummeted after we found out that a

different valuation was being chosen for

lucid which we called on this channel we

said the worst case potential

worst case potential change here would

be a change in valuation that's exactly

what lucid pulled off to raise more

money now i couldn't blame them for that

but i saw the writing on the wall that

is exactly what happened and then lucid

ended up falling into the lucid and

eevee bear market of the summer that's

when tesla lucid and other evs were kind

of just hated and this is normal like in

my opinion we go through what i call ev

super cycles where like you go through

these three months where everybody just

wants lucid rivie and tesla oh my gosh

gotta have it all or last year for

example it was oh my gosh gotta have

gotta have neo and and x-ping and lee

otto and nicola and tesla i know i even

mentioned nicola in that one hey you

know it was in motion okay it was in

motion at the time that's all i got to

say

but anyway

in this video we got to talk a little

bit about updates because we are kind of

potentially at the tail end of a little

bit of an eevee super cycle here we

started seeing prices kind of fall a

little bit i have mentioned some of my

suspicions about lucid's capability of

actually delivering according to their

promises in multiple live streams over

the past few weeks the stock has trended

down since then i do not currently hold

any investments related to

lucid whether short or long

i do hold tesla investments to be fair

but i don't hold any other ev

investments at the moment so i want to

be extremely transparent about that but

i don't think that makes me a lucid bear

because i've got three sets of insight

and then we're going to talk about the

sec investigation

first set of insight back when i ordered

my lucid air dream edition i was told

that lucid was quote we're expecting

somewhere under 1 000 vehicles to be

delivered this year with the first 520

being dream editions so the target was a

little under a thousand vehicles this

year with the first 520 being dream

editions okay got it

uh an accurate window for my delivery

would have been two to four months this

was set on september 27th

that means

somewhere between november 27th and

january 27th would be an expectation for

a delivery of my lucid

obviously i was hoping that it would be

this year for potential tax benefits but

so far i have no indication that my

lucid is anywhere close now technically

we still got about seven weeks to go but

my car would have to go into production

i get notified as soon as it goes into

production so i could pay and sign a

contract for it and then i'd get it but

somebody who's way ahead of me in the

process

was told they would be getting their

delivery in november and they already

signed a contract and already paid for

their car they fully paid for their car

and signed their contract

for a november delivery and it's now

december 7th and they still don't have

their tesla

sorry their tesla they still don't have

their lucid air dream edition so my

guess is we're probably one at least one

to two months maybe even three months

behind and that is a total guess on

deliveries now when i kind of take this

information and i correlate it to what i

see going on on twitter what i see here

is a hot off the press picture from

lucid this is at their arizona factory

and uh personally i didn't think the

picture was very flattering i think they

should have done like a much closer up

picture where people couldn't count that

it's just three rows of 17 cars which

quite frankly three rows of 17 cars what

is that 51 51 uh cars is sort of a batch

we don't know if this is a weekly batch

or what if it's a weekly batch it could

be good but we don't think it is given

that this was posted on november 30th

and so far we've only had really one big

delivery event of about 50-ish cars uh

not great that means maybe

we've certainly delivered under maybe

not certainly but we believe we've

delivered under about 200 lucids so far

since we started deliveries in september

which is not ideal because lucid is

trying to get to 520 by the end of the

year i think they're going to miss this

uh in addition to that if you search to

uh l-sit on twitter there are actually

some very useful individuals who have

been posting drone shots like for

example here was an 80 count on december

1st presumably these are the same 51

plus a little bit of extra which is good

so maybe another

you know almost 30 vehicles here 29

vehicles that's great

and then you do have somebody here

posting drone flyovers here's a december

6 shot which does show at least some of

the cars have either been moved or

distributed we're not exactly sure if

these are new cars or just moved around

cars uh we cannot verify this

information at all but certainly it

looks like there there are dozens of

vehicles moving here right

from everything that we can tell just by

kind of stocking the lucid pictures

it is a clear expectation that we're

almost likely going to miss the 520

vehicle delivery but okay who cares like

companies miss deliveries right that's

like normal if you're investing in evs

it's just like a duh it's a no-brainer

it's not that big of a deal the problem

with lucid is going to be how much that

they end up potentially missing by i'm

concerned if lucid was projecting uh

deliveries of just under a thousand with

the first being 520 lucid air dream

editions that they might miss

substantially and that if they end up

delivering by the end of the year for

whatever reason less than half of that

personally i think the stock is going to

be in a world of hurt if they miss by

anything more than 10 percent which

would be 520 times 0.9 anything more

than a 10 percent miss which would bring

you to about 468

i think would would be a cause for

at least

some negative pressure for the stock but

quite frankly i think that's the

threshold where it's like you could

probably be break even at that amount

mostly because

look even delivering 468 cars when you

just turned your factory on in like

september is really good quite frankly

lucid is

mostly performing

any kind of delays would just be a

temporary setback in the stock price and

i can't really fault them for delays

especially since so many of them are

probably out of their control

uh lucid does have i think uh little

rosy projections of 20 000 deliveries

for next year and this makes me most

nervous for lucid over really the next

six months that means q4 q1 and q2 the

reason for that is investors are

probably going to extrapolate q4

production and try to figure out what

the goal is going to be for 2021 and see

this is where it becomes painful let's

say we only deliver 400 lucids in 2021

and that took let's say three months to

hand well let's see september october

november december four months four

months to handle that would be about a

hundred vehicles per month well a

hundred vehicles per month times 12 is

1200 vehicles they're trying to get out

20

000

next year which

1200 vehicles is six percent of that and

if i divide the other way

1200 vehicles that's

uh 16 times fewer vehicles so they need

to ramp up their production by 16x

and i think the stock market is going to

vomit over this stock not 16xing their

production capabilities probably

honestly until q3 or q4 of next year so

that 20 000 could potentially end up

being a big miss

and i think that that is what the stock

market is going to try to price in and i

do think that there could be a larger

draw down and loosen again i'm not

confident enough to say i'm jumping into

to like short lucid i also don't want to

come across as a lucid bear although i

don't like to let social media or my

emotions affect my investments

i just want to be clear like these are

just some concerns that i have

and i'm looking for a dip opportunity

looking at the chart and then we're

going to talk about the sec

looking at the chart personally i think

the best entry point for lucid i mean

best case scenario there's a two in the

front it's under 30. it to me is the

best case scenario this is the lucid

chart we obviously see momentum

declining somewhat we've had a little

bit of a risk off momentum in the last

few weeks so personally this decline

here is not even deliveries based this

is just risk off this is just trader

momentum moving out of the stock because

it's not just only going up to the moon

anymore so that means we

like at a natural point without death

like disappointment might end up

settling somewhere around that 36 level

uh without disappointment if we continue

with a risk-off sentiment uh if uh if we

continue with with you know euphoria

then obviously everything i'm saying

here doesn't matter but i say risk off

environment we settle around 36.

disappointment disappointment's going to

be what pushes us under 30 and we could

revisit that you know 20 to 25 range

that's probably the range in which i'd

be a buyer and uh certainly under 20

it's a back up the truck because now you

have the risk

eliminated that this company will ever

produce a car right that's always been a

big fears like are they ever even gonna

make a car right they are so like huge

risks have been removed from the

marketplace they're delivering cars and

you're not hearing about the cars

bursting into flames or massive problems

with the first deliveries this is

actually very good and very bullish so

any kind of potential negative

projections that come out over lucid uh

really between q4 and at the beginning

of q2

after the q1 earnings

probably overblown and and negative but

uh it's entirely possible that

management could uh

get you know they could say the right

things and end up preventing a stock

fall so there's no guarantee that

lucid's going to come down

but uh for me i'm not going to make a

bet that they won't so i'm going to wait

i'm going to be a little patient in this

market

so i'm at 18 cash right now in terms of

my market investments this is kind of

where i've been for about the last month

yeah and i've been kind of diversifying

some of my investments a little bit

picking up opportunities uh taking

profits on some but i'm ready to do some

dip buying and certainly if we get

larger dips i'd be a happy buyer

now another thing to consider though is

the sec investigation into lucid and so

what i did is i went back to the

investor presentation that lucid put

together in february of 2021 and i was

really trying to look at this

from the point of view of like an sec

investigator and i am not obviously and

i'm like what did they say that's maybe

wrong and i thought okay well

32 sensors on board planned level two

autonomous launch well level two

autonomy just means you have like

brake assist and maybe steering assist

like as soon as you have two things you

have level two autonomy right uh so i

mean i don't know if the headlights are

any different i mean certainly if the

battery were different i imagine we

would have heard something about that

but otherwise

a lot of the things that i've seen in

this investor presentation

isn't exactly overly euphoric there are

some things though where i can show you

some projections

and that that is potentially where you

get a little bit of where the sec might

be raising their eyebrows personally i

would probably say that

this is the biggest issue that i found

right here so here they mentioned that

phase one is complete

34 000 units a year folks we're

producing like a hundred cars a month if

that

i think this was probably the literal

worst

thing they could have done like this is

the biggest

sec firepower that you could possibly

imagine here uh now they did say up to

in fairness they said the words up to

but they said phase one complete up to

34 000 a year

complete

that's not good i i don't love that

then they did say that they're working

see currently being implemented phase

two 90 thousand units a year

folks you're not there that's not true

not only are you not there

but you definitely weren't there in

february when you put this together

uh i mean again they said up to

but when when you say currently

implementing phase two it implies that

phase one is done and this is probably

the dirtiest achilles heel out of this

entire investor presentation but beyond

that i will say a lot of the projections

were mostly uh generic i mean a generic

you know total addressable market

projection

here was where you could have done a

little bit of projecting so they give

the lucid air plan market share remember

there are multiple different editions of

the air but i grabbed a little bit of

statistics from bloomberg nef

and as of november 12th they reported

that global ev sales that are not zero

emission vehicles just total emission

like electric vehicles which includes

hybrids uh total ev sales are about 13

million so global fleet's about 13

million

we saw 2 million sales of

evs globally in 2019

3.1 in 2020

expecting 5.6 in 2021 so almost a double

there right so you're seeing this

massive growth in vehicle uh electric

vehicle sales here a lot of them of

course zero electric zero emission

electric vehicles but the big thing here

is elusive projection of how many

vehicles they think they can deliver

they think that they can deliver well

they say planned market share after

launch they think

if we further project how many vehicles

would be produced potentially within a

40 growth rate in 2022 they think they

can get a 0.6 market share that would

work out to about 48 000 vehicles

i mean you know maybe they can make the

argument here that hey well we base this

point six percent off of four million

global electric vehicle sales which fine

that might work but if you go based off

eight mil a little stretchy 48 000

dreams in 2022 right now y'all are

forecasting 20k and even that's not

certain so uh this one i i could see

lucid having an argument with though

because you know it depends on what your

global projections are for evs in terms

of your market share but i wouldn't be

surprised if this raises some eyebrows

at the sec but i don't really see this

one as being that bad like i said most

of the things that i see in here i don't

really see is that terrible like their

revenue projection if you take a

you know 2000 or 2.2 billion dollars of

total revenue and you compare that to 20

000 vehicles that works out to about 110

000 on average per car okay sounds

reasonable

advanced manufacturing plant is

scheduled to begin production in the

second half of 2021 well they did

they did what they said they would do

lucid air deliveries expect the second

half of 2021. well they did

they literally did that

you know so that's not that's not that

bad uh

you know there were a few other notes

that i made previously on valuation but

really

much of the investor presentation even

though i hate spac investor

presentations i wasn't horribly offended

by it i think the biggest achilles heel

out of the whole thing is this i think

the build-out phases were kind of dumb

uh now it's possible and again maybe

this is this is their their

justification

maybe they'll just say hey like we're

just talking about having the walls up

like

we put the walls up that are capable of

34 000 units a year

but

they didn't say that and sec

investigations often come down to

whether or not

what investors are being told or led to

believe

is honest and fair now remember the sec

is not charged with the responsibility

of making sure that your investments

that you're making are good investments

their job is checking to see if you're

making an honest investment and so

that's kind of where implications matter

if you're implying that you can do 34

000 units a year and that phase is done

and now you're on to the you're building

out the 90 000 units per year cycle and

potentially that's what investors

you know invested in

then that's a problem if that's what

investors believe it's kind of like if

investors believe that the nikola one is

a functioning vehicle because it's

rolling down a hill and we think it has

a hydrogen motor in it like that's like

that's big when you just towed it to the

top of the hill and rolled it down

yeah so so anyway that is probably the

biggest achilles heel in this investor

presentation uh in this slide deck here

again it's a pro forma i i imagine there

are a million disclosures at the end of

this thing that that uh are

you know loopholes about some of these

these things here but uh no no footnotes

on this page i do think this is the most

risky page here and i do think that

deliveries are going to miss so when i

combine these two things for me lucid is

a weight

not a no it's just a matter of being

patient and hey you know what i wish the

best for lucid because i think they are

the first non-tesla uh

fully electric vehicle company a new one

aside from tesla

that uh that that might stand the test

of time and i'm also looking forward to

their potential partnerships for uh

autonomous driving technology whether

that's nvidia qualcomm apple whoever's

got the tech and uh wants to put it in a

car and remember just because like if

nvidia decides to partner let's just say

with lucid it doesn't mean that nvidia

can't also partner with a bunch of other

companies right

i doubt they're gonna be any kind of

exclusive relationships here but

uh car wise i'm excited

i'd love to get my car this year

but uh i'm not holding my breath

anyway

those are my thoughts i appreciate you

for watching this video if you found

this helpful consider sharing this video

and folks we'll see in the next one

thanks again goodbye