Market Flip, California Fire DISASTER, & Flight 2216 | Meet Kevin Report 6 [Jan 11]

oh is it macro time to buy the dip UBS

is going for bonds but others say it's

fear time in the stock market might be

time to buy the dip in the 2025 Stock

Market South Korean 2216 is flight data

recorders mysteriously stopped working

four minutes before the most deadly

crash in South Korean history last month

we'll briefly touch on that a petition

is now circulating to recall Karen Bass

the mayor of Los Angeles

for failing her duties of leadership in

the California fires Gavin Nome is still

trying to figure out why hydrants failed

to work in California 20% of hydrants

failed mind you in the Palisades fire

and at the same time Nome is now looking

at cutting the state budget for

universities in the state and deciding

now to pay for diapers for new

moms apparently those are the current

priorities while at the same time Mr my

pillow just lost a lawsuit to DHL got to

pay the shipping fees for pillows and JP

Morgan employees are apparently freaking

out over having to go back to the office

we briefly touch on

Israel

potential Extended Stay on the border of

Syria and much more on today's meet

Kevin Port News that makes you money

first up let's get this out out of the

way because it is just devastating 179

people died in the South Korean flight

2216 crash apparently there was a

potential bird strike in one of the

engines it's not clear if that's exactly

what happened but that's what's believed

to have happened but somehow that may

have killed the Hydraulics people say or

the pilots just literally forgot to put

the landing gear down for the plane they

were Landing which is like seems

ridiculous and extremely scary but

apparently the plane came in for a belly

landing it didn't start its belly

landing until halfway down the runway

which means half of its available Runway

was already used up and then it ended up

crashing into a concrete barrier at the

end of the running way Runway killing

179 individuals two people actually

survived after they were flung from the

back of the plane and after they were

flung I guess they woke up in the

hospital alive absolutely crazy but now

we don't have the flight data recorder

for those critical last 4 minutes where

we could have heard what was going on in

that cockpit obviously other

investigations could be conducted in

terms of was there actually a loss of

hydraulic pressure uh you know or fluid

or whatever control why was the gear not

able to be put down how does all of a

sudden uh one engine failing lead to the

plane attempting to climb failing to

climb hence the return to the airport

but then Landing without the gear ex

said it just all seems weird and I know

know a lot of people want answers I

certainly do again especially as a pilot

now I I just I want to know I want to

know what happened so mistakes like that

could be avoided in the future and it's

absolutely terrible and we don't know if

it was a mistake accidents like that

could be avoided in the future is the

better way to say we'll see what

happened uh anyway uh on macro let's hit

this UBS is apparently now going long on

the five-year treasury they uh started

going long on the 5-year treasury as of

late last year they actually think that

at this point the market has basically

priced in the absolute worst casee

scenario for bonds which is some return

of inflation potentially even from the

labor market some return to inflation

because of Donald Trump's tariffs some

return to higher rates because of a

hawkish fed and they kind of think that

at this point with how few rate cut

expectations the market is giving the

FED some people saying the FED will even

raise rates in 2025 UBS says Nah you

know what this actually might be the

time to enter bonds now don't listen to

anyone's opinion on this not even me

because I'll tell you anybody could be

totally wrong and who knows maybe rates

will end up going up to 6% and your

investment will be even more upside down

if you do that but uh it is interesting

to see that UBS is going long and

they're going for the five-year treasury

so they're not going for as long as like

a TLT which is your 25e sort of average

maturity anyway uh they see a continued

weakness in interest rate sectors

actually leaving the economy in

potentially a slower state or more mass

Fest like State than others anticipate

and they think that will contribute to

looser monetary policy than people think

they do think that the first half of

2025 might be unfriendly to the stock

market and growth mostly because of the

level of uncertainty you're going to get

out of Donald Trump in the first half of

the year they do think that you're going

to move towards growth after Donald

Trump's policies become more clear but

that you'll need that Clarity in act in

order to actually get to that level so

another words maybe you buide the dip

opportunity in those first 6 months they

think the same thing for China by the

way the first six months partly because

of trump are going to be the most

volatile now uh the market year actually

thinks we're getting close to a buy the

dip opportunity they say that because

greed fear and greed levels are at fear

sentiment is now mid-range leverage has

rotated off of highs sentiment is

returning well to neutral that's also

another way of saying mid-range fewer

than half of S&P 500 stocks are above

their 200 day moving average the first

time this has happened since November of

2023 they think we are actually getting

potentially closer to BU the dip # not

personalized advice anyway uh then I go

actually back to even more pieces UBS

just published a few here UBS says hey

look even if there is some cause for

caution or some cause for potentially

exposing yourself to bonds they say just

look at how January performs usually how

January performs is how the rest of the

year goes 75% of the time since 1928

this has been true green January green

year Market positive has been by the way

positive 43 times out of the last 60

years so if you're keeping track that

works out to about 71.6% of the time the

Market's going to end up up by the end

of the year obviously we're coming off

some pretty dang green years over the

last two years but they say look the

bull Market's only two years old average

bull market is 6 point six years long so

hey we've actually got some more cooking

to do it's kind of an interesting

Duality coming from UBS here it's like

oh the first 6 months I don't know man

buy bonds but then they're also like no

no things could still be bullish for the

rest of the year okay UBS uh make up

your mind uh anyway I'll tell you who's

uh also trying to figure out exactly

where to go and that is quite literally

JP Morgan employees now I mentioned this

in the macro section because I think a

lot of this is happening at companies I

think companies don't want to come

across as yeah we're laying people off

because it just it's going to look too

negative it's going to look bad bad it's

going to look politically bad it's going

to look like they they are too weak or

whatever uh and so JP Morgan is now

requiring 300,000 employee is that right

300,000 my goodness how many employees

uh does JP Morgan have let me just

verify this 300,000 employees okay it is

right I his number just seemed

ridiculously high know geez anyway JP

Morgan is requiring all 300,000 of their

employees to return to work starting in

March with quote a few exceptions many

employees then ended up leaving comments

on the company's website where they

posted these news updates about the

increase in commuting costs complaining

about child care costs and impacts on

work life balance and all of these by

the way I shouldn't say complaining but

that's what kind of JP Morgan's POV is

uh because these are valid comments that

people are leaving but JP Morgan is

responding with a few different things

number one they've disabled comments on

that website so they don't want to hear

it they're basically

like uh and then they're saying uh we

know that some of you prefer a hybrid

schedule and respectfully understand

that not everyone will agree with this

decision we feel that right now is the

right time to solidify our full-time in

office approach we think it is the best

way to run the company okay look I like

JP Morgan uh I actually think they're

they're one of the best banks I'm not

saying they're the only option for

banking there are plenty of options and

I think there are some wonderful

opportunities you can even get at

smaller Banks Regional Banks especially

now that the banking crisis is basically

over and the Federal Reserve has is I

mean banks are still way upside down so

I have to be careful about saying the

banking crisis over but we know that the

Federal Reserve is very well primed to

bail out Banks infinitely essentially uh

but anyway I think this is really just a

way of doing what we call quiet laying

off this is what you saw at Amazon

you've seen this at other companies as

well basically that the white CER

Workforce is purposefully getting

squeezed because look now we have

artificial intelligence we actually

don't need maybe as much labor for

potentially you know growing economy but

maybe slower growth economy and so hey

if people want to leave no problem buddy

you don't have to work in office just

leave and their fireworks going off on

that okay interesting so anyway uh

Goldman Sachs notes that valuations sure

they might be a little high right now if

you look at you know 50 to 75 years ago

but you have to actually isolate for the

rapid growth in technologies that are

happening so yes valuations are higher

but we're getting uh larger payout

ratios more than double from companies

we're getting net margins that are 40

actually that's 400 basis points so

about 4% higher than usual and return on

Equity is about 3% higher than usual so

you're making more money in these stocks

they're better they're larger they're

higher margin they do more BuyBacks and

dividends so maybe it's okay that

valuations are a little bit higher right

now and maybe we're less susceptible to

a recession the then again this also

sort of Echoes that mindset that people

argue and they say ah yes yes of course

this time is different because profit

margins are higher everything is

fine but Goldman overall seems to be

pretty bullish because in another piece

they talk about how yes well right now

good news is being considered bad news

when it comes to the economy Circa 2022

uh yields are going up because of a Fed

a hawkish fed and maybe you don't want

to fight the FED in the short term but

on the long-term valuations might not be

in such a place where you just sell

everything and sit out a potential

Market rally instead maybe another

option uh is just

diversify yes just spread your apples

amongst the other highly priced app app

anyway uh some others say that uh

optimism at this point may be priced in

this is no uh nordia nordia norda I'm

probably saying it wrong so it's

probably more like norda but anyway they

say that optimism right now this is a

problem is kind of fully priced into

financial markets to the point where it

raises the bar performance for

performance and markets right now think

that we're going to earn growing at 15%

in 2025 and you know what maybe we maybe

we will I mean I I personally think that

would be wonderful that' be a great way

to be able to grow startups and expand

businesses because you don't want to be

in a recession recessions are bad so

maybe it's great uh they think the

economy is strong maybe a lot of that is

already priced in but the economy should

stay strong so honestly it doesn't seem

like a lot of people actually really see

clouds on the horizon which always makes

me nervous when I'm like man are there

any bears out

[Music]

there not really at least they're not

very vocal right now anyway uh I'll tell

you who is a and that's Mark Zuckerberg

when it comes to Apple Mark Zuckerberg

is now saying that Apple hasn't invented

anything in a while in his conversation

with Joe Rogan he says that they're

squeezing everyone he says that uh

iPhone sales might ultimately be

declining that Apple wraps their devices

into privacy uh protocols limiting other

companies from being able to access uh

these devices and uh look the Apple

iPhone was great because it got

everybody into Apps which after all

basically you know helped Facebook on a

mobile platform uh and certainly via

Instagram's acquisition and otherwise

but uh he laments that Apple has this

sort of like cultural programming of oh

if you're not a blue text you're not

cool or you don't fit in I mean look

every everybody who's got a blue text

phone is like oh are they blue text you

know it's it's sort of like something

that we react with and I think it'll

honestly go down as one of the greatest

psychological experiments ever because

yes that's exactly what happens pretty

sure Mark Zuck uses an iPhone but he

certainly does complain about it uh he's

doing a little bit of complaining about

Apple here suggesting that they they

create high barriers to entry they limit

competition they increase developer cost

and they're not really innovating that

much okay this is interesting because

Apple did just come out with the Apple

Vision Pro which I thought is cool but I

I just his daily use function is very

very low uh I rarely use mine like I

feel like I have to force myself to use

it to justify its existence hanging on

the hook that I have for it so maybe

he's on to something but then again Tim

P when it comes to Mark Zuckerberg's

comments about uh Donald Trump and Elon

Musk Tim P says that Mark Zuckerberg is

just a fair weather friend and he was

basically complicit in the censorship

that happened under the Biden

Administration Gavin Newsome wants to

create a new homelessness agency

homeless agency anyway to help fight

homelessness because I'm sure that'll

work a lot better than all the other

failures that uh he's promoted in

addition to that he now wants to provide

three months of free diapers for

newborns he's eliminated

6500 vacant positions in prisons to help

tighten spending

uh especially at prisons so I guess

there are more precisions uh and they're

now cutting uh funds to the University

of California and California State

University system by 8% which will

likely lead to larger class sizes and

fewer

courses talking about

courses the course for the California

wildfires don't look too great uh Gavin

Nome uh by the way is now coming out cut

$101 million from the 2025 budget which

started in June for wildfire and Forest

resilience programs $5 million of that

was cut from the fuel Reduction Program

which remember how we talked about this

yesterday that you know naturally over

history California has burned a lot but

the small fires that used to happen by

nature would burn away the fuel that's

on the floor throughout different dried

out droughted out areas of California

but but without those natural smaller

fires that are extinguished in lower

wind environments by our firefighters

and a lack of actual Forest management

or controlled Burns thereafter what do

you get well you get a buildup of this

fuel on the floor and that's potentially

one of the reasons you could have these

mega fires especially in a high wind

environment yes a high wind environment

may be caused by climate change but the

fact of the matter is the stuff that's

on the floor is as a result of us

intervening with the natural process of

forc managing in a natural way so if

nature is not going to be able to do it

because we're in the way then we have to

step in and do it it's very interesting

anyway there's now change.org petition

that has

73232 signatures as of of January 11th

at 300 p.m. to recall Karen bass for her

failed leadership failure to lead during

this unprecedented crisis JP Morgan

believes that insurance losses will be

around $20 billion the total losses will

likely exceed $60 billion they also

estimate that less than 75% of total

claimed amounts might end up being paid

if people are underinsured or money just

falls short so uh under under Insurance

may also be an issue worth noting there

um is this just a bad spot to write okay

maybe this is just a bad place to put

this but have I mentioned that you could

get life insurance in as little as 5

minutes you you just go to met kevin.com

lifee you could have the same life

insurance that Lauren and I use I'm a

pilot so it's kind of good to have but

anyway you can Apple pay Android pay for

it let's go to metkevin.com lifee and go

check it out that is a uh an affiliate

of the channel okay 12% of homeowners in

California apparently don't cover or

hold and carry Insurance especially

those in the Palisades Bowl Mobile

Estates Park which was completely

destroyed so there are going to be a lot

of people that have just lost lots of

assets and not carrying Insurance

probably just a very bad idea in

California though it is and has been

relatively punitive to have insurance in

California until of course you have a

loss I guess that's the nature of

insurance uh by the way I'll be going on

the um it's already recorded but I'll be

uh an episode of myself will be airing

on uh the ice coffee hour with graham

Stefan and Jack tomorrow so stay tuned

for that I that's one of the reasons I'm

here in Vegas in addition to conducting

some additional instrument Flight

Training all right there's also now F

drama going on over the fire chief

apparently criticizing this is Kristen

Crowley by the way criticizing the mayor

of La as having failed the fire

department uh Kristen rightfully says

look we don't service the fire hydrants

like our firefighters show up and they

expect water to be there but out of uh

1,000 hydrants that were attempted to be

used 20% of them did not have water in

them so when you have a 20 20% failure

rate on fire hydrants that is not the

fault of the fire department that is the

fault of the leadership and the Los

Angeles Department of Water and Power

remember the person who was chosen to

lead the Department of Water and

Power excuse me ended up getting a

72% pay increase from the prior person

to pay to $751,000 to lead this

department and then she ended up leaving

reservoirs dry and fire hydrants not

working

clearly paying her more money three4 of

a million dollars is uh not enough maybe

she needs to be paid a few million of

those that's ridiculous fire her and

hire five competent people for that

price uh not that price but like that

price divided by five right you could

get five happily competent people to

work for $150,000 a piece or something

like that good

Lord sorry stuff like that just pisses

me off all right anyway mandatory

evacuations in the area uh do come with

a cur curfew now of 600 p.m. to 6:00

a.m. National Guard is in place 1,600

individuals deployed for the National

Guard female has received 16,000 apps

for Relief still getting Gusty winds I

mean I was coming out here Landing over

in Vegas and still getting Gusty winds

over here too it's crazy uh anyway

Newsome did order a review of the Los

Angeles Department of Water and Power

hydrant issue though a lot of people are

like bro how did you not like supervise

this this is your job to make sure these

things don't fail anyway some people who

lost their home

Anna from Scary Movie Adam Brody and

wife who stared in Gossip Girl Anthony

Hopkins from Silence of the land Billy

Crystal and wife Candy Spelling Broadway

producer jimes wood by the way his house

survived although people thought um his

uh his house was destroyed that was the

original thought Billy Crystal and his

wife lost their home Candy Spelling

Denise Crosby from Star Trek next Jen uh

lost her home Cameron mat TV host Carrie

elz from Princess Bride Kobe smolders

from How I Met Your Mother that last

name just does not fit I'm sorry that's

insensitive Eugene Levy uh from uh

American Pie Heidi monog and Spencer

Pratt reality TV Jeff Bridges from bake

Labowski John Riley Mandy Moore Oh from

A Walk to Remember this such a good

movie and I love the songs too is

heartbreaking anyway uh Mel Gibson from

Braveheart Melissa Rivers Joan Rivers

daughter by the way saved Jones Emmy

before the fire

yeah didn't Joan Rivers get hired by uh

yeah she she somehow beat Annie was it

was her name Annie Duke I should have

looked this up before but I think it was

Annie in Celebrity Apprentice man that

was the biggest ripoff ever I'm sorry

Donald Trump that was like I don't know

that was rigged man and he should have

won that one okay I'll take that one to

the Grave anyway Paris Hilton Diane

Warren pop singer Sandra Lee former

first lady of New York Ricky Lake TV

host uh Jack Smith resigned I don't know

why he's in the list of people who lost

their homes he's not it's just a

separate line to Jack Smith resigned for

what that's worth Mike Lindell we talked

about him getting sued by DHL and now

he's got to pay $778,000 after pay

failing to pay for a contract Israel ah

yeah this was an interesting one okay so

basically Israel has soldiers that have

raided the Syrian border and you know

temporarily set up blockades in the area

just east of the Golan Heights a lot of

people wonder like okay is Israel going

to be here forever uh but the answer is

probably yes they'll probably create a

buffer zone in Syria especially since

Syria has really you know Fallen well

the Assad regime has fallen which could

be good because maybe the civil war in

Syria will finally be over uh remember

what happened this all happened you know

over the holidays I mean between like

Thanksgiving and Christmas the Assad

regime which has been in power for 54

years collapsed Assad is believed to

have fled through you know a Russian

airplane or helicopter or whatever out

of Damascus after Rebels surrounded it

uh and uh he's probably in Russia uh and

probably has been granted asylum on what

people believe to be quote humanitarian

grounds which is odd given uh the

history of the Assad

regime okay uh so that's the news of the

day let's go hit some of the other

things like the dad joke of the day uh

and the Daily Wealth email so the Daily

Wealth email that I sent last night

actually came from Lauren this is the

one of the first times uh Lauren has um

been involved in this and this is it was

really more inspired by her but I wrote

Lauren and I are obviously close to the

fires but not in danger and Lauren

brought up her household famous line her

line has to do with solving things that

take long to solve things like

politically water infrastructure better

schools your Investments your career

your relationships blah blah blah

initially her line never really grew on

me but it slowly did I didn't like it at

first and it just grew on me and her

line is time is ticking anyway time

doesn't stop so you may as well be

making progress on something valuable hm

now that was so simple and yet so true

time is ticking anyway so why not why

not start that treadmill routine now you

know before you know it you're 20 days

deep Why not start that productive

checklist right now before you know it

you'll be 10 days in on that checklist

100 days in you know if you want I'm not

say I don't actually Advocate that

people like stop drinking cold turkey

even though I did it's not like I'm

trying to like you know drag people in

with it like Warren still casually

drinks uh which is totally fine uh but

if you wanted to stop drink then start

it all starts with your first day or

maybe it's like your first day of only

having two drinks as opposed to going

for that third or that fourth right the

rest of the wine bottle uh start

planning that uh uh a family trip you

know start getting on that Journey

towards a thousand hours of the X thing

that you're trying to work on whether

that's you know learning to bowl or

practicing piano you know it's all one

hour at a time you've every hour you

spend will always take an hour so the

question is what are you spending that

hour on something that's actually going

towards growing you and improving

something that you're doing or not is it

sitting around on the toilet scrolling

on Tik Tok because you forgot to get off

the toilet after going to the bathroom

and you just got distracted by Tik toks

are you spending that you know learning

an extra hour of how to be a doctor how

to be a nurse you know or Flight

Training whatever so anyway her thesis

is if you at least start you have

somewhere to pick up progress on every

day see once you're at your 10th hour

it's easier to add your 11th Hour uh and

and this is an interesting thesis too

that it's much easier to go from 10 to

11 than it is from 0 to 1 because 0 to1

is like

ignition it it takes like a lot of power

out of you to do it uh whereas you know

10 to 11 is like I'm already cruising

man whatever one extra hour big deal you

know I'm at what 115 hours of Flight

Training what's an extra hour go I'll do

another hour tonight I'll probably do

another four hours tonight you know so

anyway uh if you never start the clock

is always taking anyway and it just

takes away from you so you may as well

start okay Dad joke of the day uh I um

here it is just just bought myself a new

blindfold I can't see myself wearing

it lifestyle updates I'm going to slowly

start including some of these just at

the end uh it might just be a picture of

the family or a video clip or something

like that I just wanted to mention uh

that in this picture there's something

very important here do you see the truck

that's parked next to the Cyber Tru yeah

I think it's a Ford or whatever it was I

can't remember what it was but but it's

a truck and usually when you get out of

your cyber truck lowers to make it

easier for you to get out and uh because

I was parked next to another truck I I I

couldn't let my truck look smaller so

what I actually did is I hit raised to

max level and then I got out of the

truck so uh it looks a lot

better thank you for watching today's me

Kevin report we'll see you tomorrow bye