Microsoft and AMD Stock Earnings were a Shocker.

the stocks I'm about to mention assume

we don't go into a recession after I

mention these stocks we'll get into what

just happened to Microsoft and AMD hey

quick heads up before this video begins

if this week goes very bullish some

stocks that I would love exposure to but

I don't have exposure to you'll see why

on the first one Microsoft followed by

FICO and into it I have no positions on

any of those so I'm just giving you sort

of a free heads up my favorite stocks

right now still Apple Amazon ubiquity

watch that one and Robin Hood and then

some that I might be open to buying the

dip on paler we'll see Nvidia AMD we'll

see how the week goes I'm I'm torn on

that one I'm torn on that one and you'll

see in this video also why uh palente

here and face as for solar warant

they're seeing some of their sales drop

off because of concerns over the

election you know the removal of credits

versus keeping credits are accelerating

them right an see I'm a little too

nervous about the consumer the

discretionary on and still a little

nervous there on on where we sit for

Tesla for Q3 Q4 but I have to say giving

you heads up on some of these I'm not

necessarily making any moves right now

you know how to find out if I make every

single move or any move that I make but

uh I do think some of these names are

very interesting and I'm specifically

interested uh in my favorites Apple

Amazon ubiquity hood and Microsoft I go

into it which I don't have any exposure

to yet although I think I'm going to

have some time before feeling like I

need to rush in we'll see how it goes

the election's still coming up let's get

into the video well the first major

earnings are in Microsoft and AMD let's

talk about them we'll talk Microsoft

first then we'll talk AMD we'll touch on

Intel First Solar and some of the others

but most important here what's going on

with AI and are we going to be okay

tomorrow well that depends partly on how

markets want to trade going into JP

personally I don't actually think Jerome

Powell is going to be that big of a

catalyst I think earnings are going to

be the driver so tomorrow we'll have

focus on the next batch of AI earnings

but first let's talk about this batch of

AI earnings so initially Microsoft shot

down over 6 to 7% because they had a

Miss on some of their cloud and

intelligent Cloud Revenue guidance this

led markets to sell not only Microsoft

down but Nvidia down multiple other

stocks were red red red across the board

it wasn't until we got guidance in the

earnings call and an explanation in the

earnings call as to what happened that

everybody kind of

went okay the AI play at least for now

is still in motion and that's what we

got from both Microsoft and AMD in fact

Microsoft says not only are they adding

to their AI portfolio of AMD chips

Nvidia chips and their own chips but one

of the reasons they're adding chips is

because they do continue to see demand

growth and they're seeing an

acceleration in demand growth for Azure

this is a really big deal for Microsoft

and it should help companies like Amazon

also push up given that it seems like at

least on an Institutional level we're

still seeing more demand for AI now Lisa

Sue's opinion why this is happening is

not because people necessarily want to

keep investing in AI or because they

think it's the best thing since sliced

bread Lisa Sue instead has this

perspective that you have to invest in

AI you have no choice because if you

don't invest in AI you're going to lose

your operational efficiencies now I'm

going to be trading tomorrow morning

pretty actively going into the FED

meeting personally if I had to guess and

this would be my crystal ball it's

possible you have some fear going into

the FED meeting but honestly once you

get the FED meeting past and I I don't

think the fed's going to give us what

people want that is the tea up of the

September cut I've already talked about

that in the previous video but if

earnings keep going like this this is

good this is bullish this is a time to

start thinking about you know what maybe

you don't actually need Hedges on AI at

least according to these companies

because they're doing fantastic ially so

if you want to see exactly how I pos

position make sure you're part of the

stocks and psychology of money group

link down below you can bundle them up

with the other courses on building your

wealth my p&l right here uh 85k for the

day uh and let's see how green we can

make tomorrow as well we'll report it to

you anyway let's keep going with what we

had and again go to meetkevin.com if you

have questions email us at staff

meetkevin.com for those programs on

building your wealth so when it comes to

uh the some of the numbers that

Microsoft gave they gave a lot of talk

about how they grew chats about

155% or they grew usage or AI image

generation or whatever year-over year

the problem with that is they're in my

opinion they're really comparing because

they said since the fir like the first

half of the year they're comparing like

really uh January to July of 2023 to

January to July of

20124 which isn't really fair because AI

usage in January February was pretty

much flat in 2023 like there was no AI

usage it exploded towards the end of

March and really took off March April

May so of course you're going to have

more growth comparing 24 to 23 first

half they should have compared Q2 to Q2

but those numbers would not have been as

impressive I guarantee it uh okay I

can't guarantee it but that's my opinion

uh so it doesn't surprise me that they

kind of played with those numbers a

little bit and I have to say Lisa Sue

she you know she was asked hey how's the

demand going into next year and one of

her answers was as I already said well

you know they have no choice they have

to invest in AI but the other answers

that she gave I was a little caught off

guard by let's just put it this way she

says she's asked about it on the

conference uh on the conference call and

she goes well you know she's asked about

demand and she says well we're very

happy with the progress we're making on

our Mi 300 chips you know we're getting

those chips into people's hands uh we're

doing a great job we're a strong piece

of the AI story we're ramping Supply we

continue to invest in software to help

you know let people sort of enable these

chips inside of their businesses and so

she kind of dodged some of the demand

questions a bit she did at one point say

uh when somebody again asked about the

man she says quote overall we're very

pleased we feel very good we're on track

to LA and then she goes back into the

product cycle we're on track to launch

the Mi 325 later this year and the Mi

350 at the beginning of next year which

we think will compete with Blackwell

that's very bullish now she did give

this she did say overall we remain

bullish markets need more compute so

that sounded decent it wasn't like the

kind of bullishness that you would have

seen last year so I think you're

starting to see a little bit of a

Slowdown in bullishness but I have to

say any of my suspicion there was

relatively offset when I heard about the

numbers from Microsoft I mean really and

I said it before I don't have any

positions on Microsoft long or short but

I said it before the Microsoft earnings

came out said look Microsoft is if

there's anything if there's any company

that can take out a money printer and

just print money it's Microsoft they

they have such great margins on uh their

products and they just keep growing uh

and quite frankly that's what they

showed us here in fact they see in the

next quarter Azure to grow 28 to

29% and they see Azure growth growing

and accelerating to so that way they

could serve more of the growing AI

demand that's out there that's their

opinion so honestly that sounds really

bullish they say we continue to invest

in the demand that they see and then

they're asked like hey are you just are

you just buying a bunch of chips just to

buy them or what and they're like well

no we're buying them because we actually

see the demand in fact they said quote

Azure AI growth is the demand signal

we're only going to buy or spend the

capital Assets in if there's

demand so I have to say that's pretty

good I mean even though Lisa could have

been more bullish the fact that

Microsoft buys from Lisa's AMD and

Microsoft is like look we're only going

to buy if we see the

demand and we're buying because we see

the

demand that's pretty good you know so

full respect to Microsoft here you got

to hand it to them that's pretty

respectful and I'll tell you on a

technical basis I mean I'm not sure I I

you know like this

this this it's too early to say oh go

all in on bull but let's just say if

every earnings call goes the way these

two

went it's pretty good I mean remember

you still got a lot of big ones right

you got arm you got Facebook you got

Amazon you got Apple this week so we're

really really early on this week and a

lot of things can change

but I mean there are definitely going to

be people who look and go hey

Microsoft's still down 3 365 basis

points like Microsoft 365 okay uh you

know but but look it's down off of 468

hey I could get a discount hey look at

Nvidia sure it's up at 108 right now in

after hours but you know what did it

peek out at 140 so there are going to be

people who buy this dip oh AMD it's down

at 148 probably going to get rejected by

150 or the 160 line we'll see but it's

way down from 227 so will this be a sale

that gets bought

well obviously some of the sale has

already been bought in after hours but I

personally don't think after hours is a

very robust indicator of how the day is

going to go in fact I am concerned that

institutional investors who generally

trade during the day could use it as an

opportunity to sell the rip in other

people who still had AMD or Nvidia

exposure could potentially use the jump

tomorrow morning to sell now I'm not

trying to be bearish in fact I want to

be Crystal Clear if all of the earnings

this week are like this I will be forced

to adjust to a more bullish position

today I'm like a three and a half on the

bare scale and I'll tell you these two

earnings reports they don't justify a

three and a half on the bare scale these

are pretty good earnings earnings

reports I'll keep going with some of the

data that we had they say we're going to

continue to invest in the demand that we

see we feel well positioned says

Microsoft intelligent crowd is cloud is

expected to grow 18 to 22% LinkedIn in

the high single digits 365 at

14% yeah they'll have negative mid to

high teens on on Prem server installs

who cares uh but they talk about look

there's also a little bit of a lag that

we're going to have between us investing

in new chips so that expense and then

when that actually turns into Revenue

they say we should continue to have

Healthy Growth uh we are testing new

generative search experiences to get

more people using Bing they also claim

their gaining share which is interesting

against Google I want to see that they

say when people buy Microsoft co-pilot

seats they're coming back for more and

this is also true on Enterprise they say

commercial bookings were better than

expected larger long-term commitments

were better than expected and when

they're asked was there anything unusual

they're like no commercial keeps

executing uh you know guy did come in at

the lower end but the difference was

because of uh certain non AI segments

within Europe is what they're saying and

if you look at amd's growth their

projections you

had I mean hats off to them the numbers

were great listen this year quarter over

quarter uh you know or or uh this this

quarter over quarter growth so when you

look year over-ear quarter to quarter

growth was

7% uh year-over-year growth the whole

year to the whole year was 9% they're

now forecasting those numbers to move up

to

15% and 16% respectively in other words

that's really good and so some people

are going to look at AMD and they're

going to go maybe AMD is a cheap Nvidia

now Nvidia does not have the net

operating margins that invid Nidia does

remember Nvidia like they actually bring

I think it's like 30 cents on the dollar

to the bottom line I'll come look that

up really quick but I'm pretty sure

Nvidia brings like 30 cents to the

bottom line AMD brings like 5 cents to

the bottom line oh I'm sorry Nvidia is

bringing 55.9 cents to the bottom

line printer absolute printer of a

company AMD on the other hand on an

annual basis they're bringing about 22.5

sense to the bottom line so you have

about half of the net margin and on the

quarter basis they only brought 5% to

the bottom line so that's expected to

move up to that 20s range next quarter

so they're really coming out of a hole

that they're digging out of here but

they're really excited about this uh 300

series they're going to try to iterate

just like uh Nvidia is every single year

so they're going to go from the Mi 300

to the mi3 25 later this year the Mi 350

probably at the beginning of next year

they don't expect to see a lot of Mi 325

and 350 revenues at the uh end of this

year most of that will be in q1 they did

say that some uh income did come from

supercomputers in Q4 and q1 but most of

this Q2 Q3 income they're seeing now is

mostly mi30 which is basically like your

h100 Nvidia kind of competitor right

that's that's essentially what they're

trying to line it up with so the mi30 uh

is a gen AI accelerator uh and if you

ever hear the Instinct series that is

what it is it is the m uh the AMD

Instinct Mi 300 series uh for hyper

compute and uh you know

hyperscalers Cloud anyway regarding

noise regarding uh memory Lisa Su is

like don't worry about memory like

there's a lot of noise over there focus

on gpus and CPUs thought that was

interesting she cheered the fastest

production ramp they've ever done said

they're going to continue investing in

software talked about the acquisition of

these uh Silo team of scientists uh

which are useful for getting their

products up and running uh they think

the investment cycle will continue to be

strong they say companies are just going

to be forced to invest in in AI

otherwise they'll lose company

efficiency they're making significant

progress on their software stack

including their Open Source

Products uh how long let's see that no

no we already covered that covered that

covered that yeah okay so that's

Microsoft that's AMD very briefly

Starbucks actually missed across the

board but uh if I remember correctly

they missed across the board but their

stock is actually up uh that doesn't

sound right though but let me double

check I didn't think their numbers were

that great but they yeah CU their comp

sales missed uh in the United States and

in China uh us was mostly close to

expectation minus two China was minus 14

they were looking at 10 and North

America comps came in worse

International comps came in worse

Revenue came in worse yeah they pretty

much missed across the board but you

know the CEO in the earnings call says

they're seeing green shoots and I guess

that's all you have to say to get the

stock to move because now the sucker up

4% in the after hours we'll see how

robust that is in the AI in the AM we'll

see I I don't know I'm going to see what

happens uh and and then we'll trade

around it tomorrow

morning excuse me okay so uh bottom line

out of all this AMD Microsoft still

seeing growth and investing around that

uh Microsoft blamed it small Miss on non

aai in Europe uh eventually that'll roll

over but it's not happening yet then

you've got Intel plans to cut thousands

of jobs it's probably just a way of them

saying they just don't have the ability

to compete at this point so I don't

really think that

matters uh the um yeah yeah exactly

they're going to keep doing this Mi

Series so they're going to go Mi 325 350

400 blah blah blah they think the 350

will be relative to the Blackwell

infrastructure Nvidia does not have the

same margins as Nvidia has oh well I

meant to say Nvidia doesn't have the

same margins as uh AMD so maybe I had a

Joe Biden moment

there oh no never go Joe Biden moment

that's all right so anyway uh okay yeah

again as far as trading it's going to be

really interesting because tomorrow

morning you're going to open going into

Drome pow and I think expectations are

really high from J for jpow so I think

you could either fall before jpow or

after but the problem with that is if

you go beish and the next set of

earnings calls are as good as these

you're going to get hooked so there's an

interesting Duality for for how to play

this tomorrow so it'll be really

interesting to see how to play it uh

again tomorrow you're going to have ADP

in the morning employment cost index it

is fed day you'll also have Wing Stop

MasterCard blah blah blah then Wednesday

afternoon this is going to be huge meta

arm

qualcom carvana lamb research Etsy

Western Digital and cheesecake it's

going to be a really big day and it's

all going to be right before Apple

Amazon Intel coinbase Roku DraftKings

block snap Cloud flare door Dash rocket

mortgage Roblox Ware modna blah blah

blah blah blah blah blah so a lot to

come Anything Can Happen by the time the

Bell opens tomorrow morning uh and into

the fed and coming out of the Fed so

we'll see but anyway make sure to

subscribe to this channel uh we're

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thank you so very much for being here

and we'll see you in the next one now I

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take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser licensed real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

video is not personalized advice for you

it is not tax legal or otherwise

personalized advice to you this video

provides generalized perspective

information and commentary any third

party content I show shall not be deemed

endorsed by me this video is not and

shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purposes

of evaluating a security or investment

decision any links or promoted products

are either paid affiliations or products

or Services we may benefit from I also

personally operate an actively managed

ETF I may personally hold or otherwise

hold long or short positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuer other than

house act nor am I presently acting as a

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