Trump & Musk go "MAGA Crazy" | "INSANE" Tariffs & DOGE

okay if you're confused about what's

going on with tariffs those extra taxes

that are now going to be on many goods

and services between Canada the United

States Mexico in the United States and

China in the United States or you're

confused by what Elon Musk is up to with

Doge apparently trying to get line item

veto power at the treasury Department

leading civil servants who had been

there for decades to

resign I don't blame you at all for

being confused there is a lot that's

happening and we're going to break it

down in this video and it is

overwhelming we're going to try to make

it simple but I want to show you why

there is such confusion look at this

tweet from Elon Musk Elon Musk says Todd

young is a deep State puppet well Todd

young is a republican who is one of the

votes needed to confirm Tulsi gabard so

a White House reporter Jake Sherman with

punch bow says I assume this isn't part

of the White House's effort to lock up

the vote for Tulsi Gabbert because it's

kind of like a slam on the Republican

they need a vote from well after this

started getting more attention

apparently Elon Musk deleted this tweet

I confirmed the Tweet is deleted and

instead Elon Musk went from some

reactionary form of Todd young is a deep

State puppet which remember it's very

popular on X to scream that somebody is

a deep State puppet or corrupt or you

know somehow uh bad then Elon Musk 100%

u-turns and says just had an excellent

conversation with Senator Todd young I

stand corrected Senator young will be a

great Ally in restoring power to the

people from the vast unelected

bureaucracy which is terribly

ironic given that Elon Musk is basically

the king of unelected bureaucracy now

given that he's got the Reigns of the

Treasury Department and he's going

through line by line as an unelected

official trying to cut expenses now look

fans of Elon mus are like great this is

exactly what we needed other people see

the irony anyway like I said we have a

lot to cover so let's get started before

we hit Elon Musk and more of the Doge

stuff including apparently musk moving

beds into the Doge offices so they could

work longer hours it's worth just

breaking down what's going on with these

tffs and what uh institutions are saying

as well as what researchers are saying

the impact of the tariffs could be uh so

let's also just start by saying that

many people didn't think that M Donald

Trump you almost start confusing who's

President uh many people thought that

the tariffs Donald Trump was threatening

were just going to be a um well threat

and a negotiating lever uh and that's

because if you go back to 2018 you can't

really blame the historical context

Donald Trump phased in tariffs in fact

he slowly worked tariffs up against

countries like China and others over

many many months with many many warnings

and time a long period of time for

people to sort of adapt to these tariffs

now we're literally going from an

announcement on January 31st that we're

getting tariffs with the preview on the

30th to tariffs taking effect on

February 4th which is less than a week

for businesses and people to adapt to

these tariffs and people are also

rightfully confused because if you look

at you know Nick Tios from The Wall

Street Journal he quoted Steve bassent

the now treasury secretary uh with this

hedge fund letter Steve wrote Steve

wrote in the letter the talk of Revenge

will most likely be limited to a small

group of political enemies and wider

policies of the administration will be

oriented towards deregulation energy

Independence and Reviving us manufacture

facturing and extending tax cuts in

other words don't worry we're going to

have all the good with very very little

downside there's little to worry about

with the Tariff gun in fact the Tariff

gun as he calls it will always be loaded

and on the table but rarely discharged

see keep in mind that uh we have this

view that Trump will pursue a weaker

dollar strategy rather than implementing

tariffs tariffs are inflationary and

strengthen the dollar hardly a good

starting point for the US and industrial

Renaissance weakening the dollar early

in his second Administration would

actually make us manufacturing more

globally competitive basically if that's

complicated which it is trust me it's

it's complicated for vast majority of

people to read it basically if it's

cheaper to do business with the United

States more people want to manufacture

their stuff in the United States okay if

you're a foreigner right the dollar is

weaker then it's cheaper it's kind of

like when you go to Europe or you go

somewhere where all of a sudden their

currency is fallen in value relative to

ours it's cheaper to go there like you

get more for less of your own dollars

well the same thing is true if you have

a weaker US dollar other countries are

like oh let's manufacture in the US the

dollar is so cheap right now it makes

logical sense the opposite is true when

you have a really strong dollar you kind

of don't exactly power Manufacturing in

the United States from foreigners now

from the inside of the US maybe you can

do that

but we've got some stuff to talk about

regarding that as well so basically you

have this Steve Basset letter that goes

as far is saying we strongly disagree

that you should have a strong dollar

based on tariffs and we don't we

basically don't think it's likely see

the Wall Street consensus is for a

strong dollar based on tariffs we

strongly disagree uh well it looks like

the Wall Street consensus is right at

this moment because the dollar is

skyrocketing the Canadian dollar Has

Fallen in to its lowest trading level

since

2003 as these tariffs are being

implemented boom relatively rapidly uh

relatively rapidly I mean like really

rapidly people now expect that tariffs

are going to impact about $1.3 trillion

of us Imports that would represent about

43% of us Imports and about 5% of GDP

that's a lot that is going to be

affected by tariffs because it's not

just the Tariff items that are targeted

but then materials that go into those

targeted items and the trade back and

forth now something to remember when we

talk about

GDP and some and we hear 5% of GDP we

might think oh that's not that big of a

deal but remember we're trying to grow

GDP right now our gross domestic product

is growing by about 2% 2.1% based on the

fourth quarter uh of the United States

and its

growth okay well if 5% gets whacked and

let's say half of that 5% disappears

because people are like whatever we're

just going to take a break and not trade

for a moment here while we calibrate

well then you just lost 2 and 1 half%

from that okay well if we're growing at

2.1% and you minus 2 and half% it means

now you're in a recession you're at

negative

.4% because remember GDP growth is what

determines whether or not we're in a

recession or not positive no recession

negative two quarters in a row

technically you're in a recession

average uh tariff rates across the

United States are now expected to rise

from 3% to

10.7% some people think that gas prices

are immediately going to start Rising by

as much as 70 cents to maybe even over a

dollar very rapidly as a result of this

this is even in spite of the fact that

Trump is encouraging or I should say

implementing lower tariffs on Canadian

energy than he is on Canada in general

see Canada in general is going to get a

25% tariff but on oil that they send us

or natural gas there'll only be a 10%

tariff got it uh 25% tariffs on Mexican

products 10% on China and let's just say

there is a little note in the trumpian

executive orders that creates even more

nervousness see Goldman Sachs rightly

pointed out this in their note this

morning they said the problem with these

tariffs is that the tariffs that Trump

has implemented

include a retaliation Clause it says

quote if a country chooses to retaliate

against the United States in response to

this action through import duties on the

United States exports or similar

measures the president may increase or

expand in scope the duties imp poos

under this order to ensure the efficacy

of this action in other words hey um if

you tariff us back we'll bump the

tariffs even more against you h okay

interesting so so what have we seen so

far well so far Justin Trudeau's come

out good old Trudeau has come out and

said we're putting 25% tariffs on us

Goods

a and now he's also holding press

conferences encouraging Canadians to

think twice about traveling and

vacationing in the United States maybe

consider the historic sites or parks in

Canada instead and maybe think twice

about buying Florida orange juice

it's interesting my wife is half

Canadian and I grew up in

Florida going to start charging her

terce anyway uh okay bad jokes anyway

what's what's interesting here is if you

actually look at social media this is

going as far as people getting shamed in

Canadian grocery stores now for buying

American Products people are literally

going up to folks in the grocery stores

shaming them saying don't buy that

that's that's a trump product and there

are protests over this as well this is

um expanding rapidly uh in addition to

Canadians respon the Canadians response

the uh um Mexican government is expected

to respond with retaliatory tariffs soon

and China is filing a lawsuit in the

World Trade Organization which in 2018

Donald Trump threatened to pull out of

the World Trade Organization he didn't

but he threatened to he said if they

don't shape up I'm going to withdraw

from the World Trade Organization and

the world TR Trade Organization is

basically set up to quote benefit

everybody but us we lose all the

lawsuits filed in the

WTO I guess we're going to have some

retaliation to deal with here now the

Federal Reserve argues that these

tariffs uh could end up knocking 1.2%

off of GDP and adding 7% to core pce

inflation Goldman thinks 7% of GDP is

going away some people think more of GDP

is going away some people think less of

GDP is going away but let's just put it

this way everybody is in agreement that

this will be a net negative to gross

domestic product so in other words it

just pushes you closer to recession we

really need to like is I think about it

kind of like imagine you're rocket okay

you're rocket you're go

straight and then all of a sudden

somebody put like you know a Saran Wrap

in front of you and you're like H okay H

I got to get through that saran wrap

well you just lost some thrust right uh

and so you need more in the boosters you

need more gas to kind of keep the

boosters going through all the

roadblocks that are getting put

up all right it doesn't help at the

moment we'll look at some studies and

some research as well at the moment but

it's worth noting estimates are going to

vary for a while and the current

estimates are that the benefit of these

tariffs maybe best case scenario would

bring us in about 22 and half to3

trillion in Revenue but the downside is

that they're going to cost us somewhere

around $4.6 trillion over 10 years this

is over 10 years this is per Bloomberg

uh and so basically they're going to

cost you somewhere around uh I don't I

don't know let's say for every dollar

that you save let's let's do it that way

and and we'll go with the best case

scenario for every dollar that you save

through these taxes you're probably

going to lose about a buck 53 so this is

why a lot of researchers call tariffs

very inefficient uh like an inefficient

tool for collecting revenue for the

United States government they they see

it as like hey there there are better

ways to actually make money uh in fact

there are a few research papers we could

look at just to see what this looks like

uh I'll go ahead and pull those up so

you could see them take a look here

who's paying for us tariffs a longer

term perspective by Princeton Princeton

here argues that when we looked at steel

tariffs about 50% of Steel tariffs were

borne by foreign countries because they

lowered the cost of their steel however

the other 50% was born by us or the

buyer of the steel uh and now sometimes

there can be a lag in steel just because

usually people lock in steel contracts

for 6 to 12 month terms but the point is

you kind of had every consumer of steel

or maker of Steel equally get hurt there

wasn't really an un an imbalance here as

to who was punished now if you look at

uh another uh research piece by by Ces

IO we find that during the US China

trade War us punitive tariffs were

almost entirely Born By Us importers and

only 68% of China's retaliatory tariffs

were paid by China's importers uh and

this is in part because the stuff we

import from China is often electronic or

chip equipment or computer style

equipment whereas the stuff that China

is importing can be fruit or uh other

like aircrafts which are often deemed to

be a protected industry you know going

and their lobbyists make sure that they

are fewer tariffs so they they break

them down and they say they're low

tariff low pass through tariff items and

high tariff pass through items pretty

much in English the stuff that we take

from China usually gets hit with the

full brunt of the tariffs the stuff we

send to China usually doesn't that was

their take uh and then there was another

piece uh put together by the NBR and

they reported that obviously the stock

market gets hit in environments like

this tariff announcements resulted in to

4.3% Market declines Market dropped

12.9% over a 3-day window around Market

announcements in 2018 and 19 around

tariffs uh the counterview is that the

very short-run stock market response

time to a tariff announcement may not

reflect the actual impact of tariffs on

fundamentals and in other words it takes

even longer to sort of assess the real

impact on the economy in other words if

you're studying the impact of tariffs

you have to be careful to say oh the

stock market went down it's bad no it's

going to take a while for us to see it

in the fundamentals uh and so when they

do talk about the fundamentals they say

here that the welfare effects appear

relatively small compared to GDP and the

distortions though are substantially

larger in other words GDP benefits from

tariffs very very little this is

according to NBR uh however the overall

cost of tariffs is much larger and so

they go as far as saying that tariffs

are a quote particular particularly

costly are particularly costly relative

to many other public policies like if

you're going to choose a tool this is

kind of an expensive tool to use to try

to gain tax revenue as as we said we're

only expecting to get a buck for every

$150 in cost that we hit here so this

idea that oh tariffs are going to help

pay for no income tax in the United

States is Looney the idea that it'll pay

for some income taxes in the United

States is much more reasonable

but also unlikely given that the cost is

probably going to end up being higher

especially since we're playing this sort

of tit fortat escalation game right now

where first the United States issues

tariffs then we expect retaliatory

tariffs as Canada has already announced

China and Mexico are expected to

announce as well uh and then the US is

already preempting that if you retaliate

we will raise our

tariffs so TBD how this is all going to

go obviously Donald Trump says says this

is to stop fentanyl flow and illegal

immigrant flow one of the downsides of

this for Canada is that only like 1% of

the illegal fentanyl comes through the

Canadian border but they're still

getting blamed for fentanyl flow it was

literally JD Vance this morning that was

tweeting about how fentanyl flows

through Canada and people are like bro

it's a fraction of the problem most of

it's coming from Mexico and this has

also led the Wall Street journal's

editorial board to say yo wait a second

here yes the drug issue is a problem but

this drug issue has been a problem for a

very long period of time and maybe there

are different ways that we could go

about solving it uh the Wall Street

Journal editorial board actually goes as

far as calling this the quote dumbest

trade war in history they say that uh

president Trump's first Salvo is not

only very rapid but it's going to impact

our car Industries really substantially

they say take the US Auto industry which

is really a North American industry

because the supply chains in that in the

three countries in North America are

highly integrated by the way this makes

a lot of sense that they're highly

integrated because six years ago Donald

Trump announced the

usmca which was to integrate trade

between Canada Mexico and the United

States more heavily so the countries and

businesses did exactly what Trump wanted

in 2008 uh sorry

2018 and now they're getting punished

for doing exactly what Trump wanted in

2018 in 2024 Canada supplied 133% of US

Auto Part Imports and Mexico nearly

42% so there's a substantial supplying

aspect of car parts and this is leading

a lot of folks to say that cars that are

made in America America are going to be

a lot more expensive your GM your Ford

your Teslas any kind of US manufactured

car will be a lot more expensive

batteries imported from Mexico will be

more expensive critical minerals coming

from Canada will be more expensive

assembly Imports will be more expensive

this it's it's really a big disruption

not to mention the amount of food that

comes up from uh Mexico food exports

made up about

23% of the US's total agricultural

Imports and supplied up to 20% of

Canada's Mexico now supplies 90% of the

avocados supplied in the United States

uh in addition you're going to hit get

hit with counter tariffs California

grapes and wine Oregon Christmas trees

cherries uh you name it I mean the the

amount of things that can get hit here

and disrupted are huge jams jellies soy

steel pork you name it and again we're

still waiting for counter tariffs now

you might wonder oh well you know sure

China and US manufacturing could get hit

over a Tesla but at least they're not

hitting

Europe H oopsy dupsies so Donald Trump

is uh threatening tariffs on Europe uh

in fact if you look at what he said on

Mon no it was Friday on Friday Donald

Trump said that tariffs on the EU will

quote absolutely follow these tariffs

against Mexico Canada and China remember

that currently our largest trade deficit

in the world is with this little country

called Germany I was born in Germany uh

and uh they are obviously a huge part of

the European Union now the reason I

bring them up is because it would make

sense that if they're the largest then

we should be expecting tariffs against

Europe as well and the European Union is

already threatening counter tariffs in

advance of Donald Trump announcing

tariffs on them look at this chart right

here you could actually see Germany

right here and the EU combined right

here uh Germany uh the largest portion

out of the other countries listed here

but if you look at the EU the EU is uh

sitting somewhere around 18% of all us

Imports larger than Mexico China and

Canada not combined I mean combined

these are our largest trading partners

for sure uh but in terms of uh trade

deficit the EU on combined has a

significantly larger trading deficit

which leads a lot of people to believe

that the EU tariffs are next and then

you're hitting Tesla Giga Berlin as well

and you're taking the EV tax credit away

I I don't I don't see how these things

can be productive for us Automotive

manufacturing but I understand the idea

is for more countries to come

manufacture in the United States but the

problem with that is like bassent says

like literally Trump's treasury

secretary said the opposite would make

the us more competitive in manufacturing

like if we wanted to attract

manufacturing we should have a weaker

dollar and not these sort of tariffs on

everyone some are now calling this a

trade war on on steroids uh this is also

very different from 2018 because

inflation was running under 2% then now

it's over 2% so obviously people really

worried about inflation now uh you've

also got uh The Economist arguing that

this is going to be a pretty big hit to

Canada and Mexico only 3 to 5% of our

GDP in the United States comes from

Mexico and Canada trade with them but

it's closer to 20% for Canada and 30%

for Mexico so we could plummet our

trading partners into a recession first

and there's that risk they could take us

down with them nobody knows but

especially with how rapidly things

change who knows maybe some new US MCA

2.0 will start I don't know but remember

for a moment how these will work and

then let's also talk about the DI

Minimus

exemption so first how tariffs work

let's say I buy this uh I don't know $20

mug from China and I import it into the

United States to go resell it on my Etsy

store okay it's a pretty cool mug you

know got to get the Transformers going I

think it's awesome

all right well because it's under $800

it's mostly exempt from duties or

tariffs or taxes or whatever when it

gets imported well that's going away on

Tuesday they're just going to kill that

yeah JK no more di Minimus exemption so

this will now also get hit by the 10%

tarist going from China if it came from

Mexico 25% and so

on so that's going to hurt the t-u the

alib Babas you know the the I don't know

all the little um you know

smaller product stores that we buy

things from from China okay so that's

going to be another hit but think about

also Imagine This Transformer was

actually a container a container ship

full of stuff that's going to get loaded

into Walmart or Target well when that

container shows up and Target says yeah

it has a value of a million dollars you

know all the goods in there it's

obviously going to be a lot more but

let's just say a million dollars well

then at the border our border patrol now

gets to say all right where's our

$250,000 assuming it came from Mexico or

Canada or $100,000 if it came from China

well somebody's got to pay for that so

it could be the manufacturers of all the

stuff in the container it could be the

Walmart or Target it could be both you

know it's kind of like you know when the

company offers you free shipping it's

included in the cost of the product

they're selling you leading to product

inflation but that depends on pricing

power of that product so then you wonder

are they just going to have another line

at them that's like yeah we'll sell you

this for the normal price but you got to

pay the Tariff or we'll split the Tariff

and then you wonder what happens with

companies that are like okay we have to

absorb the margin because we're in a

competitive

environment uh you know maybe we're

selling bicycles or whatever and we have

to absorb the 25% well what happens well

if our margins are 20% we now go

negative on every bike we sell let's

stop selling Bikes let's go bankrupt so

there are serious implications of

tariffs and it's unclear exactly what's

going to happen especially since we

don't even yet know what the retaliation

for Mexico is going to be we don't yet

know what tariffs Europe is going to get

and we don't even know what the

retaliation from Europe is going to be

we just know it's coming at the same

time this is going on uh doge is uh well

declaring war Doge promises to hold a

spaces tonight at midnight Eastern uh

they also clarified that if you decide

to stop working because you've received

a deferred resignation period on

offering or or you've taken the offering

you don't actually have to work during

that period uh Doge reposted this

excerpt here on screen which says FAQ am

I expected to work during the Deferred

resignation period no except in rare

cases determined by your agency you are

not expected to

work now this is actually really

interesting because to me this is sort

of like the unemployment stimulus that

we

saw in

2021 you see when when people get money

for not working and then they go get

another job they they basically have

more money that they can go spend so in

some way this is actually short-term

stimulus it's kind of good because these

folks can now go get another job the

question is are you going to be able to

get another job what I

recommend not personally because I don't

know what your situation is but I would

recommend likely often is that if this

is you I would as quickly possible like

take the Deferred resignation period uh

keep getting paid until September but go

get another job as soon as you can the

reason you want to get another job as

soon as you can is because you're likely

going to be in this place of oh crap

everybody's trying to get another job

with the same set of experiences that I

had so let's say you're a bean counter

at the government okay great well what

happens if you're the first bean counter

to say hey I'm I'm transitioning from

the government to private sector cool

you might have a job opening you take

advantage of you you bring your

experience and and perfect you adapt to

the private sector fantastic okay well

what happens if you're

the

100,000th Bean Counter to look for a job

well private sector is like we already

hired like five of y'all at this company

and 20 at that company and 50 at that

company and all of a sudden everybody's

already got their government Bean

counters so then do you need more of

them no so then your the off the money

that you're going to get offered will

likely be lower than it would be today

because there's an excess supply of you

so you know I would start looking for a

job right away just looking at the econ

economics of that right I don't want to

get left behind uh doge is also hiring

looking for worldclass talent to work

long hours and identify and eliminate

waste Fraud and

Abuse it is a little interesting how

quickly though Elon Musk can sort of

flip on his opinions because you know on

one hand now he's calling usaid a scam

and corrupt you know they distribute

somewhere around $50 billion of us Aid

uh

annually uh but then again we saw what

he did with uh the the senator just at

the beginning of this video where all of

a sudden it's like he's a deep Stak

puppet and it's like 3 hours later he's

great there's no one

better okay this is also leading to some

confusion around uh what's going to end

up happening with the funding for

certain services for example there's

screenshots going around about how doge

is identifying all this money going to

the Lutheran immigration and Refugee

service and it's literally tens of

millions of dollars but then when you

look at what the Lutheran immigration

and Refugee service does it it's not

actually like a donation to a to a

church that's doing nothing but buying

new pews this is actually an expense of

the Department of Health and Human

Services that's providing money to an

agency taking care of unaccompanied

miners so basically when you have

children that are refugees they house

them they feed them they take care of

the children that are alone now I'm not

saying they need all of this money and

that there's not waste but the point of

reporting this is that you we could look

at a sheet like this and go man why is

the government throwing all this money

at what looks like potentially a you

know Church organization religious

organization but then when we dive

deeply it's oh it's to save the lives of

children that are aband

or separated from their family like what

happens when you know you're a child

you're you're in second grade and you

come home and mommy and daddy have been

deported now technically you're uh a

legal citizen Donald Trump tried turning

that around but that got held up in

courts in violation of the Constitution

so you're here but now you don't have a

mom and dad at home

anymore well where do you go who pays

for your food how do you still get to

school how do you survive so you know if

at the same time you're kind of cutting

at both ends you wonder okay well what

happens to all these folks now uh

another thing doge is doing is

apparently they're uh cancelling

contracts uh related to diversity equity

and inclusion you can see this

screenshot here that they posted saying

uh they're cutting about a billion

dollars in admin costs for diversity

equity and inclusion contracts there's

no detail in how there were half a

billion dollars of expenses for the

office of personal management or how uh

the FAA had $45 million in De related

expenses usaid is in here at 375 million

there's no breakdown into exactly what's

getting cut here uh so it's a little

tough to say that all of that for sure

was for

Dei but I mean other than their

headlines saying Dei related contracts

they forgot the hyphen sh Dei hyphen

related contract but anyway um yeah this

is um this is interesting we're we're

definitely in a little world of

uncertainty and uh shakeup environment

now again A lot of people are looking at

this going this is great other people

like uh David lebre who rejected musk

getting access to the treasury

Department's data was put on leave by

the Trump Administration and then the

guy

resigned now the treasury is technically

like your bill payer they're like the

accountant so it's like hey we need X

th000 computers treasur is like all

right where do we send the check to

so they don't actually like criticize

what you're spending your money on the

money is authorized by Congress and

delegated to the agencies and the

agencies spend it and the treasury pays

it musk now has been given access to

monitor outflows at the treasury

Department so people think he's

basically going line by line like yeah

no let's cancel that let's cancel that

which a lot of people actually really

support the sort of like line item uh

how should you say um uh

accountability but the line item

presidential veto that Bill Clinton used

all the time was ruled

unconstitutional because again it's

Congress that decides where the money

goes and then the agencies spend it so

this is kind of an interesting outside

of government

unelected unbureaucratic

bureaucratic process to line item veto

spending Democrats argue this is Data

Theft that violates the law Republic an

are like the big boys are in charge now

okay well this is really interesting I

mean we'll we'll see how all of this

develops but as you can see this is a

lot this is a lot of uncertainty for

markets to deal with and uh we'll see

where the cards fall I mean so far it

seems like Bitcoin has slightly

recovered a little bit from its low this

morning sitting at about uh 82 or sorry

82 my gosh uh 9

$98,000 right now that is uh down from

where we were you know before these

tariffs were announced at about

105,000 and it's been steadily declining

over the last uh 5 days you can see that

uh on screen here but uh a little bit of

a bounce here in just about the last 30

minutes while the filming was going on

from a low of about

97,000 uh anyway there there you have it

if you found this sort of information

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we'll see you in the next one thanks

again goodbye and good luck not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising in see go congratulations

man you have done so much people love

you people look up to you Kevin PA there

financial analyst and YouTuber meet

Kevin always bait to get your take