Selling Tesla for THIS Stock?!

hey everyone meet kevin here in this

video we've got to talk about plummeting

sales over at tesla and then after that

what we're going to do is we're going to

compare tesla

and end phase and you're going to want

to see these numbers because we did a

deep dive this morning i mean as deep as

you can get in about a 20-minute

fundamental analysis look into end phase

this morning just to get an update in

the course member live stream and boy i

want to give you some takeaways from

this by the way every single day i do a

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down below okay first let's talk about

tesla let's go ahead and pull up the

ipad here and we got to talk about some

of these new numbers okay so troy uh

shout out to troy here on twitter he

does some great data analytics for tesla

and take a look at this this was not so

great here tesla model 3 y orders

reported by his order tracker and what

we can see here is something a little

concerning the bottom line which is

covered by my little picture and picture

there you can hide that maybe just for a

second see that there 2022

q2 i'll circle that for one right there

okay so now if we look at the chart we

can see the lowest line here is

essentially q2 2022 orders and that's a

little bit of a concern because usually

by this point we're we're crossing this

many days into the quarter we would

already have crossed 500 multiple in any

other quarter in the past we've crossed

500 orders in the quarter you could see

that this is 500 right here and here we

go every time we're at about day 57

we've crossed a 500 orders except this

quarter the second quarter here in 2022

we have not done so yet you can see q2

2021 really took off i mean this was

explosive right here but definitely a

plummet in orders here and so the

question now is

when uh or or what's happening here why

are we seeing this and so there's some

speculation potentially that this could

be the reason for it here's your average

wait time for tesla model 3 deliveries

and you could see the last quarter over

here has the highest wait times instead

of waiting three months which was

roughly the average of the end of last

year we're waiting a couple months for

the beginning of last year you are now

waiting three uh sorry you're now

waiting almost six over six months to

get yourself a tesla model y that's

pretty incredible now uh in addition to

this we're also seeing service take a

little bit longer here's a chart uh that

uh troy went ahead and threw up for us

which is really informative and it shows

that in q1 2022 we actually had about

10.7

of those who brought their vehicles in

for service have to spend more than a

day in service to get their vehicle

serviced now i personally just had my

mcu replaced and my car was in service

for almost a week because they had to

order the part i asked them if it was

coming from shanghai because then i knew

it would probably taken like two to

three weeks and i'm like no no don't

worry

it's it's coming from the us of a is

what they said service was great by the

way but elon's already mentioned on

twitter that hey we've got to get the

service in north america

faster and so this is a priority for

elon musk he's addressed exactly this

but i will say that decline over here in

orders something that we're kind of

looking at like oh no all right

like there's a little bit of an issue

all right folks now we got to talk about

end phase versus tesla okay this is what

we talked about on that course member

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which is really incredible so what do we

got over here okay so we got tesla

closing price today of 714

in 2022 we're expecting 60 growth we'll

see if we can actually hit that number

because of shanghai we might be closer

to 50 percent but let's say we're about

60 percent with an eps at the end of the

year of about 12

we're at about a p e ratio for 2022 of

59.5 right now it's actually not that

terrible given the growth rate right you

always want to evaluate a p e ratio

relative to a growth rate and the reason

the peg ratio is so so freaking

important is because people like to look

at a company like walmart and they'll

say something like well walmart's p e

ratio is like 19.8 right now right but

their growth is like four percent so

when you divide 19.8 by four you almost

get a peg ratio of five you're paying a

lot of freaking money for that growth

over at walmart although everybody you

probably asked that doesn't know much

about finance is like well yeah tesla's

over valued at walmart oh this is

consumer staple it's probably a good

deal meanwhile the thing had disastrous

earnings they're cutting prices like

crazy their inventories explode this is

not about walmart okay it's not about

walmart this is about kevin.com tasty

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it's not even up to it's 200 for free so

uh and then in the future so if we

divide this we get a peg of about one in

the future we're expecting about

50 growth in the future right compounded

annual we know we've got a household

income here of about 140 000 this is

what we want we want a strong household

income so that when we start coming out

of a recession or if we even continue

into a recession then we come out of it

we we stay strong through this sort of

recessionary dynamic i also believe what

we really want is a very home-based

company one that's got a lot of sales in

the united states because i hate to say

but uh i think the emerging markets are

going to suffer a lot more than the

united states and i think europe and

china are going to suffer a lot more

than the united states this is going to

be one of those situations where when

the united states sneezes and have a has

a soft-ish landing the rest of the world

ends up getting coveted okay that's a

little bit of an evolution of the quote

but whatever i think it's appropriate so

uh this is tesla for you problem with

tesla okay and this is a little minus

factor here is according to their last

annual report

45

of their sales

are u.s based that means 55 or

international i thought that was a

little surprising to me so that was that

was quite interesting now let's compare

that over here to end phase so over at

end phase you've got growth of about 51

this year it's forward growth maybe 30

maybe forty percent maybe fifty percent

who knows tbd their eps this year

expected to be about three dollars and

five cents so you've got a multiple

that's up there as well 58.8 very very

similar to tesla peg ratio with that 51

growth about 1.15 very similar to tesla

i wouldn't really compare one to 1.15

it's basically the same thing very very

good peg ratio very good here

and uh

here in the solar industry you tend to

have households that have a household

income of about 115 dollars per year

this is where you want to be this is

very very good now one of the things

that is nice about enfase is 75

of their revenue comes from the united

states so when it comes to us

and phase wins on that and one of the

beautiful things about enphase is while

tesla's prioritizing batteries for their

cars and that's so that's recognized in

their car revenue right now end phase is

really far behind on their batteries

and battery revenue because their

battery lead times right now are 14 to

16 weeks one of the beautiful things

about that is when the ships finally

come in like literally the ships finally

come in with more batteries revenue

could explode over at end faces these

batteries actually start coming in

remember batteries here are going as

like home power walls where tesla's

prioritizing cars over home power walls

so very very interesting way to

diversify with battery tech and they're

killing it with chips like they are they

do not have supply issues at least so

they say with their chips they're able

to sell their they use asics which there

are plenty of them especially since

crypto prices have come down plenty of

asics on the market which let's let them

make their iq eights iq eights are

amazing they're a new micro-inverter

style of technology that actually allow

you to power your home when the grid

shuts down most solar systems and i know

this sounds weird even while the sun is

out most solar systems

can't power your home when the grid

shuts down you have to have the grid on

for the solar system to work it's crazy

the iq8 at end phase solves this end

phase is really like a higher end kind

of solar company which again i also like

higher end 115 is for all solar

households that's sort of your average

household income and face i would

venture to say is a little bit more of a

premium brand probably a little bit even

more than this and i would much prefer

enphase over something like a william

sonoma right now even though william

sonoma also appeals to that higher

income demographic a demographic that

has more income to get through a

recession uh more savings about fifty

thousand dollars more of savings per

household in the top twenty percent

compared to 2019

absolutely amazing a nice good buffer

here uh the problem however with end

phase and this is a little this is kind

of the thing that's been keeping me a

little bit skeptical of nface is an face

did really really well today first of

all because biden said okay no tariffs

on solar panel imports on certain

manufacturers for two years keep in mind

and face does not make solar panels but

it's a benefit to end phase because more

solar panels come in cheaper solar

panels and face can sell more of their

inverters which make solar panels work

and make them work for your house right

so that's really really good but

what's been keeping me away what's been

key and that's why we had like a six

percent bump in the price on end face

today but what's been keeping me away is

that uh most people in my opinion view

solar as an investment and we know from

lowe's and home depot that investments

tend to go down

on your homes during a recession and so

if we do end up having a recession and

we see home values fall or whether or

not we have a recession if we see home

values fall i do worry that there could

be multiple missed quarters of growth at

end phase and if we really miss this

growth number because we have two two

and a half years of a depressed real

estate market and maybe the forward

growth is only about 20 percent and

we're going to have big problems with

valuation we're going to see that peg

ratio is a lot higher and i think the

valuation will compress which won't be

great for the stock however i will say

despite the potential real estate market

which that could take you know six

months to a year to really take hold

they expect to go from 2.8 million

inverters manufactured per quarter which

is crazy per quarter all the way to

6 million that's a double by q1 of 2023

that's insane inverter growth that's

really really really good that's that's

amazing i mean i'm very very excited

about end phase for this i do think

there'll be opportunities but boy oh boy

it's not a surprise that while oil

prices are so high end face is

absolutely kicking butt right now i

think we've got headwinds because of

that real estate issue but boy numbers

wise really i've always loved this

company and still love it uh now with

with tesla one of the things that's

interesting here is

even though they have things like you

know fsd robots both of the companies

are ramping well right i know tesla's

got batteries as well but we're

recognizing that in car revenue where

over here we're really doing a lot of

inverters anyway tesla's got that higher

household income and what's interesting

is if household incomes or household net

worths go down because home prices go

down does that actually stop people from

buying teslas are tesla's bought as a

justified investment or they bought for

more entertainment purposes because

people want to spend money on butter

right guns versus butter butter kind of

more enjoyment things so a little bit of

different companies here but i have to

say if you're looking for two great

growth companies that appeal to higher

income households and get substantial

revenues from the united states which i

think is really where you want to be in

this kind of environment i don't think

you can go wrong hashtag not financial

advice with either tesla end phase or a

combination of both of those obviously i

can't give you financial advice but i'll

tell you me personally my opinion i love

both of these companies

and if i were just less concerned over

here or we had more of the market start

pricing in some real estate pain into

end phase maybe if oil prices come down

home prices come down we start seeing

pain here you better believe i'm loading

up on end phase so i'm excited i'm just

not sure how much that household impact

in desire to spend money on solar it's

really going to hit the company but then

again we get plenty of problems at tesla

as well

folks don't even get me started on that

one including with twitter anyway thanks

for watching check out the programs i'll

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