what jerome powell just leaked... yikes

wow just this morning we got a producer

price numbers and J pound had a big

message for us and I think he gave us a

hint as to what we should be expecting

for tomorrow this is a pretty big deal

so let's get into exactly what happened

this morning what your own Paul just

said what do expect going forward and

how this could affect your trading and

potentially long-term investing in this

video I'm going to go through my

strategy going into CPI as well to give

you a bit of a preview of what's going

on

keep in mind just this morning I sent

out an alert at 7:48 a.m. uh which puts

you right here uh on that uh oops let's

go ahead and uh there we go puts you

right there on the Tesla chart and we

played calls all the way up to that 178

line when we sent that alert out we were

able to pick up almost

69,000 bucks on that Tesla and that

Spirit trade we do have an expiring

coupon code on those uh trade alerts and

the program on building your wealth in

the stocks and psychology of money group

uh coming out uh tomorrow tomorrow at

11:59 that'll expire we did send that

alert just so you could see it now keep

in mind this is California time we sent

that alert right there at 748 which

aligns since my weebl's on Eastern time

which aligns and I gave a full

description there I'm just showing a

little preview there which aligns with

my alert right there 10:48 Eastern Time

7:48 uh in California time so we played

these lines pretty nicely got out at

about 178 let's go all right so now for

the summary so uh a PPI this morning

came in hotter than expected Jal was

asked about it and he indicated hey look

it was actually pretty mixed the reason

for that is some portions came in hot

and then within that's the services

section came in a little hotter 34s of

the increase was due to services and we

got a little hotter than expected Reed

in the April data uh we had uh an overe

expectations month-over-month and core

month over Monon read but the downward

revisions from last month were actually

greater so we beat by 02 on the month

over month but came down by3 on the

prior month and then on the core month

of a month we beat by3 but came down by3

which is sort of balancing this out if

anything somewhat to the doish side now

Jerome Powell when asked about this

called this data mixed now what's

interesting about this is he's asked hey

you know what part of inflation concerns

you and this I thought was very

interesting he said that really you

don't need all three of the buckets

remember Goods Housing Services and

non-housing services he says we don't

need all three of those to actually come

back down to 2% this is the first time

he said this and that's the moment that

I went bullish when he said this I went

bullish because once again he started

washing his hands of higher inflation

data which that might be shortterm

medicine maybe he's just propping us up

to let us down in fact I think my this

time is different count he said this

time is different like three or four

times during this time we'll talk about

that in a moment but what he really did

so you know maybe he's setting up false

expectations here right but what he

really did is said the PPI d was mixed

we'll see what CPI comes in tomorrow but

we still expect some progress on

inflation in the second half of the year

and we're going to need more than just

one quarter of data to see what the

trend of inflation is so think about

what he did there for a moment he washed

away the entire first quarter going one

quarter doesn't make a trend look at how

doish he's trying to be he washed away

the entire first quarter this morning

he's like the revision were good it was

pretty mixed not a big deal we're going

to need more data than that and then

when he's asked about you know rates

basically potentially going up He

suggests eh very small probability uh he

does say I don't want to give up on it

yet now I thought that was interesting

because it does somewhat imply that

there's a little bit of them that it

says uh he might have to flip on us in

U-turn and go Paul vulker uh that's kind

of of why in my trade alert that I sent

this morning that almost $69,000

realized profit uh right here I wrote uh

80% bull 20% Hawk the 20% Hawk that I

wrote on this on this post is because

Jerome Powell uh it gave this hint that

I haven't heard him give before this I

don't want to give up on it yet so he's

really confident that inflation's going

to come down he just believes it's going

to take longer but I want to be clear

when he said that you don't need all

three of those buckets to go down to

2% to me I thought that was really

interesting that that was a breaking

with uh the tradition of What markets

have thought that you really want all of

those buckets at 2% he's really trying

to say hey if we have you know housing

uh non-housing Services inflation

running at say 3% and goods inflation

running at netive - 1% and Housing

Services at zero well then we average to

let's say 2% the math might not be

perfect there but you get my point the

point is if if you can average out to

2% then then who cares if services are

running a little hot that was another

way of washing this inflation data and

that's really weird I I don't know if

it's

sustainable now keep in mind obviously

we we're in the middle of a meme rally

we've got uh I've actually posted uh the

short interest on ec.com just go to

ec.com I posted all the short interest

for today that people have been

interested in sun power at 95% this

doesn't cost any money this is totally

free right I like to be transparent yes

the courses on building your wealth with

the expiring code tomorrow those cost

money but you only pay for those once

you know some people have been in those

for four or five years now and and and

they get more value every single day uh

but anyway um sun power 95% beyond meat

41% Evo 31 plug 28 run 24 uh Lucid 31

Virgin Galactic 30 laser 30 carvana 28

Spirit Airlines 27 microvision 25

GameStop 23 Tupperware 23 rivan 21 FUBU

21 amc1 19 Sofi 18 Till Ray 14 clove 13

and djt

99.3% uh short of uh as a percentage of

float over here uh so you're going to

see some of this data over here on

ec.com you're welcome to scroll through

this and see this but you also see some

of my notes uh from jpow but let's keep

going because I'm also adding more sort

of opinion here in this video to add to

the facts of what ja house said uh so

that way you get some more

contextualization so uh I've personally

been concerned about the labor market

the labor Market's been a a a big source

of concern for me it's something that's

made me nervous and uncertain mostly

because I'm seeing uh more people get

laid off and then having trouble getting

new jobs we're seeing job openings roll

over Jerome PA says we're back at 2019

levels of Labor Market tightness which

he says is good he sort of cheers that

we have 27 months of under 4%

unemployment which In fairness it's

really good data he's absolutely right

about that says we have a very strong

labor market Rising spending households

are in good shape financially we're not

over levered he says consumer spending

has held up business spending has been

strong large

immigration uh they're consuming and

working boosting growth uh the uh labor

market is very very strong uh he says a

little type of there there we go labor

Market is very very strong it's coming

into better balance though and so he he

sees it sort of cooling but he calls it

a gradual cooling some of the things in

the labor market that I've been seeing

have personally made me a little more

nervous but maybe I'm being too bearish

and so I have to be real here when I

when I listen to japal he definitely

seems more bullish uh than than maybe I

have been and so this is why I also like

to when when I heard this bullishness

I'm like I'm going buy some calls and

I'm glad 6 9% I'm going to take it I'm

going pick that up and put in my pocket

and go thank you very much but anyway uh

on inflation higher than expected q1 uh

did uh he does say he did not expect a

smooth road but inflation was higher

than expected and we'll have to let

restrictive policy uh continue to do its

work basically uh and so

um the the big message here from japal

is we we can really expect to stay at

these rates for longer that we don't

really need to hike and even though

inflation data has come in mixed on PPI

it's not something that's really

concerning him at this point neither is

uh the banking sector now he did mention

a few times this time is different

people locking in low rate mortgages and

therefore this economy is maybe uh less

exposed to some of the risks of being in

a bubble which she mentioned the word

bubble as well uh part of that was due

to the banking sector and he said that

the biggest problem in the banking

sector is when you get a banking run the

Netherlands Central Banker was there as

well he talked about June being the

tentative First Rate cut and services

inflation coming down finally which by

the way is is good like service

inflation coming down in in the

Netherlands is good because that

probably does mean at some point in the

long term we'll have Global Services

disinflation right and that'll help us

in the United States as well but really

I think overall this was a very uh

bullish shape how it could have been a

lot more hawkish uh it's not a surprise

to me we kind of started seeing the

market move up after that and going into

jpow we had nervousness right so opening

statements you get this rally oh no

japal is starting to talk about

inflation Market goes down I entered my

calls right here at 1048 Eastern I sent

those

alerts uh uh at at 10:48 is when I sent

those uh those alerts uh and uh and and

you can see here there were a few

minutes of sort of sideways but then as

soon as that event started coming to to

an end that's when you started really

seeing a run now how sustainable that is

going to be into the rest of the day I

don't know I just really wanted to trade

jpow talking but it's possible we could

also get a rally into the close I don't

think we're going to have a fall into

the close uh and and you can see here

off of that alert uh there there plenty

of opportunities here to close around

178 in fact if you want it to be perfect

you know I I think I closed right about

here as we were just hitting 178 that

was my goal run to 178 you could have

actually held to about 17950 almost

17949 over here but personally I'm a big

fan when it comes to trading that I go

in with a strategy I try to go Line to

Line and when I when I make a profit I'm

going take a profit I don't need to

squeeze every single dollar out of a

trade uh the worst thing to have is the

fomo of of oh I should have sold there I

would have had more money uh because

that'll leave you in trades too long and

you might dime in hand a losing trade

for too long and that's when you really

get smoked in trading so just some sort

of free trade advice there uh but anyway

these are my thoughts on Jal I have to

say maybe I need to re-evaluate some of

my Haw my my sort of um bearishness but

let me be clear uh I still see cracks in

the labor market I still see cracks with

household debt bnpl I think is is this

this uh this sector the non-bank sector

that jpow is uh you know he's aware of

he mentioned it too the non-bank sector

doesn't have that regulation as much as

what he said compared to the regular

banking sector so he's he's aware of

these I I I don't know I have to also be

careful that I'm not getting too bullish

just because jpow is bullish but because

he could flip very quickly so uh I'm I'm

going to go into CPI tomorrow hedged uh

now the $69,000 basically we just made

uh basically means all of my hedges

could go to zero and I think I'd still

be up money which is crazy uh and I

don't expect them to go to zero but um

if we get a bullish or mixed CPI read

tomorrow mixed mixed or or better data

is going to be bullish the only way we

really get bearish data tomorrow on CPI

is if we end up getting H let's look at

the expectations uh we're looking at 04

on month over month3 on month over month

core you'd really need those to come in

hot and the revisions not to offset that

so you'd really have to be CPI month

over month like 0.5 Core5 and the

revisions coming in flat basically no

revisions uh that that's really the way

I think you would get a bearish day

tomorrow and I don't think a lot of

people are hedging going into tomorrow

so I still think there's an opportunity

to pick up some cheap Hedges today going

into tomorrow uh if you want to hedge

your long portfolio Hedges are a little

different from a day trade though right

day trade you're playing the lines

hedging you're really playing playing an

event and you're trying to protect

yourself from some some downside

elsewhere in your portfolio in the event

you had some kind of Correction so for

example I'm way more long uh than I have

my hedge but my hedge is also leveraged

through options uh to where if my hedge

pays off it'll pay out substantially

probably more than than the loss the

overall portfolio would experience so

again that's the nature of a hedge so

we'll see how the day goes but uh CPI

obviously tomorrow is going to be a big

deal there's a chance you get a rally

into the close on the bullish japal we

had today and the the mixed PPI data

which I think is a little bit of a hint

that we're going to get a pretty basic

CPI report tomorrow uh but uh it's also

something to keep in mind that the

markets tend to have some fear going

into the close before

CPI uh mostly because of the fear of the

unknown so keep that at the back of your

mind if you are thinking about going

bullish on the day uh you know nvidia's

obviously gone from negative to positive

you could see that uh here I wouldn't

like there is a risk that while you

could run towards the close like the

last bit into the close sometimes you

see a selloff right before CPI so if

you're getting tendies on a run uh if

they come quickly I'm a big fan of

taking them if you can milk them

throughout the day great take them BTC

is sending a somewhat bullish signal

given that we're trending above that 617

Line This 617 line everybody should have

this one drawn

61741 uh it's it's not so perfect right

here on the one minute chart but if you

go out on the 30 minute uh you know it's

it's okay you got a couple rejects over

here a few rejects over here I just find

we sort of Magneto around that that's

just my see kind of pause over here a

little bit you get a bounce over here a

little bit you know we we've played this

line many times before three over here

one over here uh and when we extend

below it we keep coming back to it when

we extend above it we keep coming back

to it so that's just been sort of a

recent Trend that I've seen I drew it as

yellow because it's not as perfect as if

it were a blue uh that's just sort of my

trading strategy to to differentiate the

lines that I have you know yellow is

like I this looks like something that's

going on like one that I saw as well

that we traded on this was a rougher

trade I only made 800 bucks on this

trade uh I was up like 5 or 6,000 at one

point and I kept holding it and I got

out at positive 800 but uh it was this

trade line right here

1794 when we rejected off of that line I

closed and got and then it dropped all

the way down to like 16 bucks or

whatever so this I think is becoming a

more important line uh though uh though

we'll see you know we we kind of we

touched it a little bit over here so

we'll see what happens with Robin Hood

clearly we're moving up a a little

higher now because of the momentum

movement that we're getting over here at

gme and uh AMC gme line today that I'm

watching personally for trades is right

here it's where we're sitting right now

basically the

52 52 40ish line right about there

trying to break through on that now so

that's another one that I'm watching so

we'll see uh I'll do one last check here

on at sorry n phase and I'll give some

final thoughts this no man's land not

ideal remember I'm a big fan of playing

the lines uh easy one today I didn't

play this one but it would have been an

easy one is when we extended above 19 I

was looking at it but but I usually

don't like trading the first 15 minutes

so I did not trade on it but I was

watching it I'm like ooh extending above

119 that's going to pull back sure

enough pulls back breaks the 119 look at

that right down uh to our 113 line and

comes up and you know that Line's been

there for like ever 11340 is the line so

uh I like playing the lines and and I

don't know if we're GNA have enough

momentum to really push Tesla higher

than this it's possible but I don't I

don't know that we're going to make it

to 183 today before CPI now if we get a

bullish CPI oh we'll push right up to

183 tomorrow but uh I don't know that I

want to bet on a bullish CPI and that's

why I'm going in a little hedged

especially with that PPI data we got

this morning if uh we don't get as

generous of a revision we might be a

little screwed on CPI but we'll see J

pal still keep in mind thinks that

there's a good chance we're going to see

a downward move in inflation in the

second half of the year so that's jpow

take is the second half the year ends up

uh giving us the bullish inflation read

now let me see what the suits are saying

if there's anything on uh jpow from what

the suits are saying sometimes you could

get something from Nick T if you don't

follow him yet on Twitter I'm I'm a big

fan of him x uh he's he's a good guy and

we have uh any tweets from him 55

minutes ago no meaningful change in the

economic Outlook since pow's last

comments uh no meaningful change in the

El today key line we're just going to

have to see where the inflation data

fall out so uh Nick T other takeaways

Powell maintains policy is tight by many

measures the policy rate is restrictive

the question is is it sufficiently

restrictive and that's going to be a

question that time will tell and we do

not expect this to be a smooth Road

these are some of the similar summaries

that we got balance of risk no timetable

for cuts he used to by the way say we'd

like to cut this year we didn't we

didn't see that here now if I go into

the uh probability of rate Cuts in

December we're sitting at about 1.75

right now so we've been somewhat stable

there and tomorrow's CPI is really going

to move us into uh One Direction or

another so that's Nick t a little bit

from the suits as well and uh broadly we

got uh we got a little bit of that post

uh Powell uh rally here as expected how

we go into the close I think it'll be

tenuous again until CPI keep in mind

that CPI tomorrow is uh is is like the

last big Catalyst for a while uh I mean

you got Nvidia earnings coming up and

obviously those will be a big Catalyst

for AI but I mean I'll I'll I'll read

off the Catalyst to you uh quick

reminder the the first Catalyst after

CPI and retail sales tomorrow uh which a

CPI we've already gone through retail

sales are expected to come in uh Advance

point4 X Auto point2 X Auto gas .1 so

low expectations on retail sales we

could beat that you do not want retail

sales to come in negative and CPI to

come in hot that'll freak people out

that'll be a stagflation trade the Hedge

will'll pay off tendies on that one

tomorrow uh if that happens stagflation

is not what you want after tomorrow uh

after tomorrow so after CPI retail sales

the next Catalyst will be the uh

expiration of the coupon code 1159 p.m.

tomorrow remember we just while we jpow

traded pulled off this almost $69,000

profit that's a realized p&l for today

uh on two trades we placed one on uh

Spirit Airlines and one on Tesla so if

you want those trade alerts make sure

you're part of the stocks and psych

group and you'll get all of those trade

alerts no guarantees we can always

always print uh but uh let's just say

we've had a really good last 30 days

been killing it so knock off some wood

okay uh then uh and email us if you have

questions at staff meetkevin.com but

that expires tomorrow most people who

email us they just want to bundle up

they say like hey you know I already

have a course I want the real estate

course or I'm in the real estate course

I want the stocks one whatever we're

going to get initial claims on Thursday

to 20,000 is what we're expecting

continuing claims uh 7 1880 is the

expectation those will be slightly

softer than what we got last week so

we'll see we'll also get housing starts

expected to be up 7.5% month over month

so we'll see if we get that that'll be

tomorrow we'll get Import and Export

prices uh tomorrow so we'll get a lot of

price data tomorrow all of that by the

sorry that's Thursday morning all of

that over the next two days all at 5:30

a.m. so if you haven't yet subscribed to

the meet Kevin Market live Channel Make

sure you do that meet Kevin Market live

you actually download the meet Kev an

app in the iPhone Apple Store uh and get

notifications if if you'd prefer to have

that all in one place and we're going to

make sure that comes back up again on

Android as well for those green textures

you you got to have green respect too so

those are the really really the big

catalysts coming up after that if I go

into next week I get you know pmis

University of Michigan consumer

sentiment that's all a little boring

honestly none of those are like Mega

Catalyst really the next Mega catalyst

h i mean frankly it's Nvidia I mean

we'll get Walmart on Thursday John Deere

on Thursday we'll get JD but Baba missed

so uh not great there for for Chinese

sales Palo Alto networks Lowe's and

Macy's next week Toll Brothers Target

next week Nvidia and snowflake mark your

calendar for May 22nd that's a week from

tomorrow a week from the expiration of

the coupon code uh that'll come out

we'll also get into it at the uh end of

next week and on ly then we're kind of

Chill on Catalyst we don't have the uh

next fomc meeting until I think it's the

third week of June oh the second week of

June June 12th and then the next jobs

report should be the first Friday of

June which is June 7th June 7th we'll

get the first jobs actually I think

that's the second Friday because the

first Friday might end up on the first

let me see here uh nope it is the first

Friday yeah first Friday uh we'll get

the job status so honestly after

tomorrow we're kind of just twiddling

our thumbs until Nvidia next Wednesday

and then uh jobs on the 7th and jpow on

the 12th and then of course we'll have

CPI again which you may as well write

that one down

CPI uh release for June should be like

June 12th as well it is on fed day you

get the May inflation data on fed day

that's going to be a v day but that's

all down the road uh so anyway yeah that

gives you an overview of everything that

jpow just said my thoughts on the market

my thoughts on hedging uh and again if

if we could get non-stack inflationary

numbers tomorrow maybe I'm being too

bearish remember I've been Mega Bull

since like November of 2022 Nike Swoosh

volatile recovery you know everything

Moon Moon Moon up until about the last 6

weeks I try to be as transparent as

possible the channel uh I love all of

you who support me and always come back

so so thank you for that um I'm not

always right I just I try to give you my

opinions and I'll tell you every

freaking turn jpow late like this year

he just keeps trying to go for the

bullishness I don't know like I think he

already knows what the CPI data is

tomorrow and I don't think he would have

been as bullish today if the CPI would

have been bad for tomorrow so I'm I'm

like a little nervous that my hedges are

just going to get burned

tomorrow but I'd also be really pissed

if I closed my hedges and then we got a

Miss because then I'm going unprotected

in tomorrow and remember

folks always use

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you're like Kevin it seems like your cup

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let's push a button here go

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personally operate and actively manage

ETF and hold long positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuers over than

house hack nor am I personally acting as

a market maker look at that vwap move

look at that double reject on the vwap

for end phase playing the

vwap

wow that's definitely algorithmic anyway

thanks folks uh we'll see you all in the

next one uh what if you want to quickie

wrap your sticky stop no I've never

heard of that before I can't unsee that

I got to go why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see how it

goes congratulations man you have done

so much people love you people look up

to you Kevin P there financial anst and

you YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

get your take