HOLY CPI INFLATION! *TOTAL SHOCKER*

oh look at that we got some shout outs

here in the chat The Alchemist says the

newsletter is amazing love the

newsletter says Chevy Jeff thank you

thank you so much

so uh again that that link is down below

in the YouTube description or down below

in the reply section of my Twitter and

uh the courses on building your wealth

big coupon the expiration is two weeks

away email us at staff meet kevin.com if

you have bundle up questions keep in

mind course members can now Shadow for a

pretty substantial discount uh and

that's a course member only benefit you

could see that at meet kevin.com okay

here we go Wall Street expectations for

inflation point three Wall Street

expectations that's for month over month

core month over month point three CPI

year over year 3.1 CPI core year over

year five percent Kevin's expectation is

looking for a point three percent month

over month and a 0.2 on the core here we

go

we got nothing yet come on come on it's

always so intense that minute sometimes

it takes like 15 seconds to actually

show up here we go core year over year

comes in low 4.8 I don't know why the

other numbers haven't come in yet 4.8 is

the core uh year over 0.2 let's go wait

wait wait wait no no that's on the

headline oh crap uh okay wait CPI month

over month point two wait yeah there it

is point two it's also 0.2 let's go okay

great wow this is crazy CPI year over

year comes in at point three all of it

comes in low Nick T once again leaks it

before once again Nick T gets it right

happens to leak the CPI Data before

because he gets it probably just like

j-pow gets it and they're like make sure

to temper the markets don't let markets

rally nope we going to the Moon baby CPI

month over month comes in at point two

CPI core comes in at 0.2 uh CPI year

over year excuse me comes in at 3.0 and

a CPI core year over year coming in at

4.8 every single one of those numbers

coming in low uh this is absolutely

fantastic let's go ahead and get the

actual report uh while I do that let's

listen here for just a moment well and

up to two tenths

on the core is the lowest level going

all the way back to

to February February of 21 when it was

only up 110. and if we look at year over

year up three percent four percent in

the rear view mirror about four percent

in the rear view mirror was the lowest

level since March of 21. so when you see

three percent you have to go all the way

back to March of 21 again because that's

where the comp drops from down to 2.6 is

what we're comping to and then the rear

view mirror four percent and here's

another one if you look at X food and

energy last month was up 5.3 that was

the lowest level since nove of 2021. 65

to 4 eight this is great let's get into

the actual report this is phenomenal uh

congratulations this is great news

everyone knock on wood this continues

but it's great news okay let's get into

the actual report here we go index for

shelter was the largest contributor to

the increases okay listen you probably

haven't heard this yet I'm gonna give

you a bottom line the Wall Street

Journal ran a fantastic piece bottom

line they said if we didn't use the dumb

stupid owner's equivalent rents for our

shelter inflation our core inflation

would be somewhere around 30 percent

lower than our core inflation is right

now in other words we're stupid for

using the data the way we do versus the

way Europe does if we measured our

inflation the way Europe does inflation

would be over already this is phenomenal

but anyway this totally aligns with the

Nike Swoosh recovery here shelter

inflation was the largest contributor uh

to all items increase accounting for

over 70 percent of the increase 70

percent of this trash CPA AI it's just

from the housing and we know that's

already rolled over for rent with the

index for motor vehicle insurance that

was a red flag coming up dude Nick T

Nick t with the leaks man uh JP Morgan

called that too though with uh Motor

Vehicle Insurance the food index also

increased 0.1 percent that's nominal the

index for food at home was unchanged

that's flat food away from home Rose 0.4

percent not a surprise that you're

getting that in the summer the energy

index actually Rose 0.6 as oil has

actually been trending up and uh wow

you're still getting this total Miss on

CPI this is fantastic let's get into

some of the actual categories here I

want to get the uh the individual

categories here in full so okay let's

get this uh okay here we go we're gonna

get the full tables and we're gonna go

through specifically which categories

are burning here uh so pulling this up

right now one second while that PDF

loads remember two weeks away from

coupon expiration and get that

newsletter that we're doing now totally

for free link down below and course

members shadowing discounts available at

meet kevin.com now if you're a course

member if you're a multi-course owner

the discount actually goes up even more

so what do we have here this is the CPI

breakdown I like to go to uh the back

okay here we go Motor Vehicle Insurance

the right side is the month over month

number we're looking for May to June

seasonally adjusted oh wow look at that

plummet in airline fares this is

phenomenal a crash in airline fares

let's go I hate Airlines

8.1 let's go uh that is an 8.1 percent

to the downside Motor Vehicle Insurance

still hot hot hot 1.7 an annualized

figure times 12 is 20.4 annual inflation

here at motor vehicle insurance that is

an ouchy wow Chi motor vehicle

maintenance and repair at 1.3 percent

this is a chicken or egg problem really

well it should be motor vehicle repairs

costing more lead to more expensive

Insurance wow look at that

transportation services thank goodness

back to point one percent this was a red

flag in the last CPI report when we got

0.8 I was a little nervous I'm like wait

how but what happen here is Airlines

sandbagged the motor vehicle insurance

increase even though Airlines have a

much lower weight than Motor Vehicle

Insurance that's great Hospital services

at 0.4 still a little hot Physician

Services 0.7 still a little hot owners

equivalent rent still coming in at 0.4

but look at what's happening it's coming

down folks it's coming down 0.5 0.5 to

0.4 previously this was 0.7.7 so we're

finally coming down in some of these

numbers rent of primary residents still

sitting at 0.5 also High therefore the

shelter index look at that weight on

shelter folks

shelter 34 weight here this is crazy

you've got apparel at point three

percent actually surprised that's at 3.6

percent annualized used cars coming down

yes look at that this is we the the

leading wholesale indicators were that

used car prices were coming in to

plummet and they finally are showing up

in CPI let's go uh this is great oil

just broke 80 bucks by the way for the

first time in many months but it's

probably because this is fantastic for

the stock market I mean this should be

fantastic I I mean I don't know I would

let's take a look uh in just a moment

electricity at point nine percent energy

at point six percent didn't seem to

matter though as as we really got an

explosion uh here in terms of good

numbers I'm really happy about this this

is fantastic I'm telling you Nick knew

it uh you know j-pow can get these

reports ahead of time that shouldn't

come as much of a surprise to you but I

wouldn't be surprised if you got a

little text to Doodle from hey man hey

man don't let the market rally if it's

just one good report because what a

weird report what a weird tweet Nick

tweet Nick T is like hey yo you know if

we happen to get a good CPI report um

you know remember one CPI report doesn't

make a trend

come on man there is there is no better

indicator than that

but uh as you can see here this is

phenomenal NASDAQ and the pre-market is

up one percent Tesla up three percent in

the prey market and phase up 1.5

Nvidia up 144 Intel's up one percent

ubiquity up almost two percent this is

an undervalued play If you're looking

for a value play do some fundamental

analysis on ubiquity a lot of Insider

control but that's because this company

prints money and it's selling for less

than a one peg it trade desk has been on

an absolute tear 82 bucks over here

Bitcoin looks like it's trying to move

on this as well almost at 31k and Bray

airs up another two percent Apple's even

up at 0.64 snowflake uh it's up a little

uh Neo two five let's see if we've got

any Dow Jones is Almost up a percent the

Dow's like never up almost this is

remarkable you've got Domino's Pizza up

12 sun power up nine percent here open

door is almost at five dollars

I called this with course members I told

him I go this is a buck 30 stock this

thing's gonna Skyrocket even though I

hate the company I thought it was going

to go to two or three dollars I didn't

think it would go all the way to five

dollars it's almost at five dollars I'm

like blown away like I wish I put a lot

more money in that oh well you know

that's the thing about hindsight uh but

but the leading indicators the leading

fundamental analysis was on point uh

anyway zoom is actually uh down four

point seven percent here in um

pre-market Redfin down 2-4 but these uh

these companies were also up yesterday

uh actually was it yeah both of them

were Redfin was up 23 just yesterday and

here's your small cap Revival coming

back remember Redfin bottomed at like 10

bucks this I know actually much lower

this cycle but during coven uh now

you're sitting back at 15 bucks and then

it just ran

uh anywho uh volumes for real estate

agents still very low though so I'm not

particularly enthused about uh earnings

for some some of the real estate

companies just because volumes are

expected to be so low but anyway

phenomenal CPI report let's get into the

detail detail so this goes even another

layer deep in terms of what we could

glean from this Rapport uh tax

preparation Services 1.8 percent it's a

little expensive financial services are

up there uh 1.6 this right column by the

way is our May to June and then the

prior three columns are all just the

prior seasonally adjusted numbers here

so tax prep Services coming in a little

pricey here you've got apparel and dry

cleaning at 1.3 that's high

uh however if you bundle it all together

once you include laundry and the other

miscellaneous personal services only at

point one

you've got personal services at point

four driven by haircuts here actually

that's the only one haircuts and

personal care point four little High

telephone service is down 1.2 percent

residential phone services who still

uses that point two percent

postage we did get postage stamps going

up again you know I grew up as a you

know I was born when postage was like 29

cents and uh you know stamps were like

30 something cents throughout my

childhood now I think it's like 65 cents

or something it's crazy

anywho education is actually down point

three percent admissions to sporting

events up 5.5

yikes that's a that's a big number over

here CBOE volatility index hits a one

week low down to 1406. so much for that

cathartic blowout on the vix that

everybody was waiting for to step into

the market just hasn't happened yet

then you've got public transportation

wow 6.8 decline right there with that

8.1 percent airfare decline fantastic

okay motor vehicle repair unfortunately

that's where we saw still some heat uh

but it's not in body work it appears to

be in maintenance and servicing as well

as repair but not body work that's only

at 0.2 percent leased cars and trucks

still up but car and truck rentals uh

down 1.4 percent phenomenal easier to

finally three months in a row here of

declines in car rentals health insurance

decline decline decline three months in

a row of declines here Hospital Services

point four percent there's that darn

household owner's equivalent rent

domestic Services that's hot uh at one

point four percent here but also very

very small weight on domestic services

uh rent of primary again this is where

you're getting some of the ridiculous

numbers wow look at that we actually got

a negative in lodging away from home

holy smokes

lodging away from home specifically

hotels and motels down 2.3 percent now I

thought we were going to get a blowout

here because of Summer travel but what

would offset it would be seasonal

adjustments these are the seasonally

adjusted numbers keep that in mind

you've got other Goods uh 1.1 percent I

mean this is nothing but you do want to

be careful that you potentially get a

reanimation of of goods inflation right

I don't really think so but a lot of

people worry about that wine wine at

home down point six percent Lauren will

be happy alcoholic beverages away from

home

point five percent to the upside

okay what else do we have here alcoholic

beverages at home point two

to the downside smartphones still

getting sandbagged

1.5 percent to the downside

education's down negative point one uh

these these are just great great numbers

here this is a phenomenal CPI report

remember like a year ago and I'm like I

can't wait in a year from now hopefully

we're looking at a CPI report that's

mostly negative like negative negative

negative negative it's here it's kind of

crazy newspapers up point three percent

who reads newspapers well I do

anyway what else do we have here sports

equipment down point three percent

Sporting Goods point three percent oh

wow really look at this segment that's

starting to roll over I've been waiting

for this segment to roll over absolutely

waiting for it because you look at like

the Petco and and some of these other

pet suppliers they've actually still

been seeing strengthened uh

strengthening uh uh pet inflation and

it's been a concern but take a look at

this negative 0.5 for pet and pet

products

finally finally finally finally new cars

new vehicles new vehicles flat on new

vehicles new cars uh negative point two

percent new trucks flat used cars

negative point five fantastic uh infant

and toddler apparel 0.7 oh of course as

soon as I'm expecting twins uh infinite

toddler apparel goes up

great

girls apparel those down and these are

twin girls so maybe they'll grow into

that downside of uh of lower pricing but

uh infants more expensive great

okay men's apparel 0.4 over here and

what else here women's outerwear and

dresses both negative

housekeeping supplies 0.1 tools and

Hardware zero dishes flatware 1.5

appliances yeah let's look at those

durables here appliances negative again

negative point one percent furniture and

bedding point one percent nothing over

here household furnishings and Supply

negative point three percent price

decreases over here and of course you

had some of that energy push up eggs

folks look at the eggs deflation another

7.3 percent down milk is down fresh

fruits fresh fruits up a little bit but

those are very volatile uh okay wow this

is an excellent excellent CPI report

looking for some additional CPI or Wall

Street reactions here let's go to the

Wall Street reactions quickly uh

reminder uh courses on building your

wealth we got two weeks for the next

massive price increase this is going to

be a big price increase uh adding a lot

of value to the courses regularly and uh

make sure to check out that you can now

bunch up the shadow program if you're a

course member large discount you can see

that at meet kevin.com so it really

incentivizes a reward for existing

course members and potentially new

course members and then of course check

out the free newsletter where you can

get daily insights from me by either

clicking the description on YouTube

right now or looking at my reply tweet

on Twitter just go to my profile realme

Kevin on Twitter hit replies and it's

the first one there okay let's see here

cycle high yields are likely to hold

uh okay the legitimate case for the

Atlanta fed Boston okay wait hold on as

expected today's CPI print added fuel to

a recent Bond rally by taking away the

tail risks for raid hikes with the month

over month headline and core numbers

both coming in at point two there's

legitimate case for the Atlanta feds

holding for rate a rate pause basically

or holding longer

wow rates tumble as Traders abandon a

second rate hike fantastic

uh okay great dollar tumbles CBI falls

short of forecasts this is great I want

to get some specific CPI

insights let me also look at the tenure

and then we're going to look at the

five-year Break Even

uh pre-market oh yeah I mean all the

indices are up I mean Dallas at 0.6 s p

is up 0.8 NASDAQ sub one you've got uh

the 10-year treasury down 6.3 bips let's

look at the actual CPI report for June

uh analysts here or analytics results

here

uh let's see here looking beyond the

July meeting for a moment these numbers

will make the speech at Jackson Hole a

lot more crucial for setting the future

of policy oh talking about Jackson Hole

again great I didn't like Jacksonville

last year that led to a hard one anyway

Bill Dudley former president of the New

York fed said this opens up the question

of whether July will be the last rate

hike

fed will take some comfort in the fact

that core service CPI uh X housing has

slowed below four percent oh this is

such a good chart I want to show this

chart to y'all standby for a moment I

want you to see this rollover remember

this is the opposite of what's happened

at the United Kingdom where you had this

Resurgence of inflation in the UK we do

not want to see that here so I'm going

to pull this chart up

and uh describe it for those just

listening but basically here's a chart

of core Services ex-sh shelter inflation

so stripping out shelter and just

looking at what those core inflation

numbers are doing what do we got here

we've got a core inflation coming down

from a peak X housing of around 6.8

percent all the way down to uh just

under four percent this is a very very

good chart we're going to look at those

five year Break Even expectations in

just a moment you are right to ask about

it I want to see it too I really want to

see it go to like it this in my opinion

well let's just look at it now in my

opinion it should probably drop it to

2.1 if not even lower so we yesterday we

were at 2.2 I usually have a little bit

of a lag in getting the five year Break

Even inflation but it should have

updated now so I'm gonna guess if I

could get a 2.09 I'm gonna get very

excited like under 2.1 would be very

exciting so let's see what we get

2.15 so it did drop substantially I'll

show you I'll zoom into that chart at

that bottom right corner here it is

falling still so let's see here

uh here it is on screen you can see that

plummet uh still on the lower trend line

we were talking about this yesterday

you're still on that lower trend line

though so we haven't broken that so if I

draw a trend you can see it's still

you're still in that Rising path if we

break to 2. you know one three one two

we're gonna break that trend line and if

we hold under it hopefully those

five-year break-evens really start going

down and that's going to mean the fed's

going to start pricing in uh uh the

pause officially and cots let's look at

the FED term rate expectation yesterday

we were at 5.36 which was fully pricing

in the next rate hike I would argue that

this should be five point

three four

five point three two two a nice drop off

okay very good very good and if I go to

the rate monitor for the fomc Rave right

now we are looking at exactly two weeks

away from the next fed decision that

means we're also two weeks away from the

expiration of that coupon code email us

at staff at me kevin.com if you have

questions

still pricing in a 91.8 probability of

one more hike however uh the odds of

going to a of of staying stable actually

those have remained stable so far

73.4 although a little bit more on uh on

the pause side okay looking at a bit

more

uh a lot of talk about higher food

prices affecting consumer psychology but

inflation and food is becoming less of a

story meat poultry fish eggs drop point

four percent in June regardless of where

you sit on the FED debate inflation

decelerated in June to the slowest Pace

in more than two years question now is

this a genuine turning point

nah it's a Nike Swoosh baby oh that was

a good one

got him

[Laughter]

everybody's H gonna be this this rapid

U-turn it's like nah man it's gonna be

slow it's gonna take time for people to

realize inflation truly was transitory

oh I'm still gonna piss people off for

saying that whatever I say stuff to piss

people off every day and I sincerely do

apologize

but I stopped caring so um a dollar

101.15 nice little drop there from uh

101 one uh or 1014

housing costs accounting for 70 of this

CPI increase absolutely insane uh so

look I mean this is this is phenomenal

uh

uh this is absolutely phenomenal uh this

is great uh by the way if uh if you ever

want to uh intern for me send an email

to jobs meet kevin.com with a one minute

video

and you can intern for us potentially

we've got a really amazing group right

now uh and uh we're very excited about

the many differences uh or many

different businesses that we are uh

expanding we have a lot of fun every

single day working on all of them so uh

if you're interested you have to work

locally no remote sadly

all right so the this is great it's a

great CPI report thanks for watching now

I want you to know this when it comes to

AI

time is what's going to make you money

and if you can prove that value to an

employer you'll always be able to be

employed so this is another way of

making sure that you don't get replaced

but

foreign