Why Tesla Stock is Falling to Bankruptcy.

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okay all right now let's talk about

Tesla folks wow wow wow Tesla another a

rough rough morning at least that's how

things are starting let's go ahead and

talk about all the things that are going

on Tesla and my first impressions of

full self driving so in this video we're

going to talk about 4680 production

we'll talk about Neo Shanghai coveted

lockdowns in China we'll talk about

elon's shift in his behavior and then

we'll talk about FSD so we've got a lot

to cover let's hit it okay so first 4680

production this is actually really good

news so if a Tesla has finally started

providing a little bit more updates into

some of the good news that's going on at

Tesla and I think folks are completely

blinded by how impactful these

structural battery packs of the 4680

cells are going to be these cells are

not only expected to charge

substantially faster last substantially

longer be a lot safer and be less

expensive for Tesla to produce but they

are expected to be the core of the Tesla

cyber truck providing it potentially a

substantially longer range and there are

now rumors of potentially a faster

supercharging Network like a super

supercharging Network or probably

something more like a supercharger V2 or

some kind of better name but anyway that

could charge the Tesla cyber truck even

faster because if you have a lot of

battery in a lot of range you don't want

that supercharger stall well basically

bogged down by cyber trucks all day long

you got to keep people moving so people

can get charges and so there's a rumor

about a potential V2 supercharger coming

out anyway these 4680 fees are expected

at this point to be in production at a

rate of uh well let's see in the last

seven days they announced they did 868

000 cells enough for 1 000 Vehicles if

all of these exclusively went into cyber

trucks depending on what size of vehicle

they're talking about maybe it's only

500 cyber trucks right again depends on

the Range they're talking about here if

they're comparing say model wise to

cybers uh let's say there are a thousand

cyber trucks though that would still be

enough for 52 000 cyber trucks the first

year and we expect that production to

really go into effect this year for the

Cyber truck which will be a pretty big

game changing Catalyst for Teslas and so

finally enter the sort of rugged Market

if you will that's going to be big not

only for construction but people who

like Towing people who like camping it's

going to be pretty dang incredible

unfortunately in the meantime we have

some very depressing short-term news

such as Neo cutting their delivery

guidance for Q4 due to the disaster that

is going on in China Neo obviously sells

vehicles in China so they give us a nice

leading indicator of what to expect when

they provide a guidance cuts for China

and remember Tesla to sell a lot of

vehicles in China as well Neo's guidance

went from a production guidance and

delivery guidance of 43 000 vehicles to

48 000 vehicles in just one quarter it's

actually pretty good production from Neo

that's not bad it's a midpoint of about

45.5

000 vehicles in just a quarter they

reduce that to 38.5 to 39 5 000 Vehicles

expected that's a midpoint of about 39

000 instead of 45.5 which basically

represents a

16.3 percent drop in Q4 Outlook that's

not good and that is definitely Weighing

on Tesla sales and a lot of this is

happening because of covet in China some

of these things are absolutely

ridiculous but what's not ridiculous is

the fact that for 2 900 bucks you could

Shadow me for a day and fly with me on

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taken care of with your bundle requests

so regarding Shanghai all right so the

there was a rumor that Shanghai was

going to shut down on the 25th through

the end of December it looks like

Shanghai actually ended up being shut

down on the 24th and so this led to some

suggestions that wow Tesla's letting

everybody go home early things must be

really slow uh and now Tesla China has

of course responded and said well this

isn't completely accurate but they're

not exactly the best at PR so hence

stock down no this also you know comes

in addition to the fact that in January

Tesla Shanghai will have an extended

product shutdown or production shutdown

keep in mind Tesla Shanghai is the most

inexpensive most efficient and uh most

producing or top producing gigafactory

for Tesla so it's a big deal at least

until Berlin and Austin fully ramp and

Fremont continue to use its build out

although uh what you're paying in in uh

Tesla uh California for cars is a lot

more expensive than what you're paying

in Tesla China but anyway the production

shutdown is expected to run from January

well from January 19th through January

31st that means we'll only actually see

production from about January 3rd to

January 19th that's uh that's only about

17 days in January that's almost a 50

shutdown if you consider the days that

we're going to be down here in December

we've got almost a total of well about

three-fourths of a month of a shutdown

for Tesla's most productive Factory so a

little bit of a concern here especially

since the public Chinese New Year

holiday is technically from January 21st

to the 27th so the fact that Tesla's

going to be shut down from the 19th

through the 31st four more days to here

to there is a little bit concerning for

some regarding production in China now

In fairness it's worth noting that less

people are buying cars in China right

now because of well covet it's a

complete disaster right now now part of

that is actually because China is

lifting a substantial amount of their

coveted restrictions they actually just

started removing their uh inbound

traveler quarantine requirements which

will be fully lifted on January 8th

after three years of almost zero covet

policies they'll also begin processing

Visa applications again they've

downgraded the management of kovid which

originally allowed them to implement

those really restrictive uh policies and

lockdowns in China which have been

become so famous for being an example of

authoritarian government and they've

changed the name of uh of of the virus

from the new coronavirus pneumonia to

new coronavirus infections this all of

these changes are now uh sort of an

Abrupt U-turn making it easier for

people to actually conduct business and

live in China at the same time China is

also not going to publish a daily uh

covet surveillance anymore however we've

got plenty of insights into Coroner's

offices uh you know where dead people go

and hospitals being severely

understaffed not enough fever medication

so people are staying home longer and

sicker longer the peak of this coveted

surge is expected to be in January

Manufacturing tech Hub gonna butcher

this one XI Jang province which is also

known as iPhone city is seeing 1 million

coveted cases a day in just one city

that's expected to double in about two

weeks from now which puts us around

January 10th activity is dropping

everywhere retail sales shops

restaurants down 18 Subway ridership is

down 70 percent below its 2019 levels

factory worker uh production export

production car sales real estate sales

everything is plummeting because

everyone's sick daily seal production is

down 3.4 percent uh and uh exports to

South Korea are down 27 in just the

first 20 days of the month China's

insured units for Tesla's last week it

came in at just 8915 those are new

insurance registrations that's down from

10 000 to 254 just last week this is

obviously clearly leading less Chinese

to buy cars because everybody's freaking

sick it makes complete and logical sense

and usually and this is my opinion what

happens in situations like this is

rather than having a pull forward effect

which is kind of like when you have like

a Black Friday sale right let me give

you an example you do a Black Friday

sale and you're like hey Black Friday

use the coupon link down below you know

get get your programs on building your

wealth and the educational programs and

stocks real estate Black Friday sale

okay usually when you have a really

really big sale you sell less product in

the weeks thereafter because people who

would have ordinarily bought in the

weeks thereafter have pulled forward

their demand to a Black Friday let's say

in in that example right the same thing

happens in like solar sales or maybe

even Tesla America or everybody kind of

rushes in at the end of the year buys

and then you have slower sales in

January that's normal that's called a

pull forward well in my opinion what's

happening with covid is you're actually

not destroying demand because everyone's

car sales are going down right Neo's Car

Sales Bentley car sales Tesla's car

sales this is not a Tesla like loss of

of sales this is a Tesla delay of sales

it is a push back of sale sales

and the stock dropping on on that is not

actually in my opinion uh fundamentally

sound because sure you're slightly

delaying a little bit of your Revenue

but it's kind of ridiculous since that

revenue is still expected to come if

anything you want to potentially

consider betting on which company is

going to be best when it comes to the

rebound when Chinese actually start

returning in droves to purchase Vehicles

once everybody's kind of gone through

you know the sickness

okay now that said uh let's consider

inventory in America for example it's

kind of a fun little experiment to just

hop around and explore what's going on

with inventory in America you know it

was just um it's just about a week and a

half ago that I posted uh showing how

how many vehicles it seemed like they

were available in different areas uh and

uh that is that is now vastly changed I

mean this is 93004 there are no model

threes available if I go to sort of the

the south Florida ZIP code

33324 that's where I used to live I got

nothing if I jump to model three I got

nothing look at that I could pop between

the two I got nothing so uh it's

actually pretty incredible how it seems

like all of this inventory is almost

instantaneously uh sold out so really uh

quite quite uh quite impressive uh and

and uh hopefully we'll see some really

good numbers there at the end of the

year

for Tesla now I do want to touch on Elon

uh you know I sent an email to Vanda

track and I'm a little bit disappointed

because they uh they gave the answer to

the Wall Street Journal and didn't

respond to my email although usually

they respond to my email uh emails I you

know I thought this was a little funny

I'm a subscriber van to track their

their research firm they're very

expensive but they're also very good but

anyway they um I I emailed them I go hey

can we get a number how much has retail

bought Tesla stock uh so far this year

in 2022 and then like three days later

the Wall Street Journal runs an article

according to Vander track retail has

bought X dollars of Tesla throughout

December 16 2022 and I'm like

anyway so retail bought

15.2 billion dollars of Tesla uh now

that contrasts to Elon Musk who has sold

23 billion dollars this year of Tesla

that means retail needs to step up their

buy and hoddle game by 50 just to break

even

from Elon musk's selling pressure on the

order book how crazy is that that's

pretty wild huh now I do want to give

Elon props uh and and this is not to be

political I have to give this disclaimer

every time uh because every time I

mention this people think that that like

I'm making a case as to whether or not

somebody should or should not be

prosecuted I'm not bestowing my opinion

on politics here at all I'm simply going

to make a very clear point that when

you're running an advertising business

you are putting your foot in your mouth

when you make very politically blunt

statements I explained this many times I

just have to be very careful about how I

say because look I I try to be

politically neutral on this channel

everybody has some biases I really

personally think I'm like a 5149 I think

I'm so in the middle as much as you

possibly can be uh but anyway uh I think

that Elon has changed recently you know

I've seen him on the Twitter spaces

where he came in for an hour and spoke

I've seen him on the all-in podcast did

a great job on there he's actually been

very very comforting he's realized that

there are you know mistakes that have

been made and things could have been

done better and and his goal is to stop

making those mistakes and uh and try to

basically fail fast and improve quickly

and I appreciate that as an entrepreneur

I I feel the same way but what I've also

noticed is he's really toned down his

rhetoric on Twitter now he'll still

respond to you know things on Twitter

that are potentially wild and outrageous

like he responded to Dimitri Medvedev

going oh interesting thread that doesn't

mean he believes it of course everybody

freaked out over there I'm okay with

that like please reply to people

crossing the border bring attention to

it you know reply to delete stream

evident bring attention to it reply to

anything you think is interesting all

for that all for that please I think

it's absolutely wonderful and so I think

he's been doing a fantastic job of of

doing just that uh however when he said

prosecute fauci uh that was that was

Peak stupid that was Peak stupid the

good news is he's off of uh Peak stupid

again I'm not bestowing my opinion as to

whether or not that should or should not

happen it's it's just solely that you

wouldn't you should not say that as an

advertise as an advertising company

right you just alienate 50 of Americans

it's stupid uh but but he's actually

pulled back from that he's not doing

that anymore so I was worried that that

was actually going to be like the start

and now it's like he's found his new you

know uh you know more 60 70 on the right

wing kind of tranche and it's like

that's it these are my homies now F

everybody else on the other side but I

was worried about that but I think he's

really kind of rained himself back in

and he's being a little bit more uh

neutral again which which is very very

comforting he also talks about uh the

cost structure of Twitter having been

improved three to four acts Twitter no

longer being on the path to uh

bankruptcy the fast track to bankruptcy

at least a burn rate of less than one

billion dollars per year should break

even in 2023 very very good very very

very good so I'm very proud of Elon uh

for his changes uh I did just get the

full self-driving uh unfortunately I

went on on a flight uh see I bought a

plane because I was gonna make a joke

that well since I can't get autopilot

I'll buy a plane which has autopilot the

name autopilot came from Aviation after

all of course the same day that I go to

pick up my plane which has autopilot I

get autopilot in the Tesla and I'm like

yeah that that is the day I would get

out of it

anyway so I finally got to try it out

yesterday and uh I have to say

um very impressive uh there there was a

moment where somebody was severely

crowding uh my Lane which uh uh it was

it was a minivan I had to take over uh

and you know jerk over uh so when this

was when the other vehicle was right

next to me so I don't know if that was

harder for the Tesla to see or something

like that but I did have to force take

over I did also again revisit the

frustration of not actually having a

horn uh that's because I I you know as

that happened I I hit the horn and kind

of turned the wheel because I'm like

stop like I'm here right that's the

purpose of a horn to the like one

percent of people who think you don't

need a horn wake up there are situations

where you might need a horn

uh but uh but uh you know the thing is

as drivers we do use our horn generally

very rarely and so having driven for 14

years maybe more 14 15 years my human

reaction is always if this is the

steering wheel and you need to in a

situation react quickly you hit the

middle right but uh the the early model

S plads the early yoke models uh which

include some of the x's and other cars

you actually have to hit the the button

panel on the right uh which I have

extremely difficulty or strongly

complained about on Twitter as being

completely stupid like that yes I

understand the horn works when you do

that but it's not innate in an emergency

or in an urgent situation I should say

right it's it's stupid uh fortunately

and this is what I do like about Tesla

they changed that about two months after

I got my car and I you know I'm not

trying to take credit for it but I did a

lot of bitching on Twitter and on

YouTube about two months after they

actually added that sensor back to the

middle of it very very proud of Tesla

for doing that I just don't have it okay

enough about the horn I just wanted to

share that as an opportunity to show

that Tesla does listen okay and I think

that's very important uh for a company

and I'm proud of them for that uh

otherwise um I had other situations

where a vehicle was about to crowd into

my lane and uh the my Tesla was slightly

behind it and slowed down saw that uh

many very impressive unprotected left

turns really cool I will say the creep

is probably the neatest thing about full

self-driving this is basically where if

the cars at uh at sort of a an

intersection and maybe you have a bunch

of parked cars on the left and right you

can't really see oncoming traffic it

just slowly sneaks up to kind of get

that visual down the left and right

alley really impressive uh I I would say

I had nominal interventions and uh in in

certain that there was one instance

where it kind of went into an area that

it thought was an intersection uh and it

treated it more as an intersection like

a stop sign when the reality was it had

the right of way to kind of turn uh but

little edge cases like that were very

rare and I didn't even take over in

those cases the car ended up figuring it

out itself uh very rarely did I have to

take over and so I have to say I'm very

impressed uh at this thing's ability to

to drive me into a parking lot to go to

pick up a bagel uh to to get me home

from that parking lot without me having

to do anything shocking really really

shocking this is the future people don't

realize that Tesla is a tech company

right and this is where if we look at

the models for Tesla oh my gosh let's

talk about models man you know who would

have thought that you would come to this

Channel and you'd get to talk about

models I mean like

um so sexy he's models are so hot like

there's such a turn on look at this

uh no really here I I want to mention

that you know obviously you've seen this

spreadsheet before but uh one of the

things that's remarkable about this is

you know this represents about a six

thousand dollar decline in Revenue per

vehicle but uh you know because we're

sitting somewhere around about 52 000

per vehicle right now right but if if we

could maintain

52 000 a vehicle because of FSD oh boy

that would be incredible but not only

would that be incredible I want to show

you a few things okay because you have

to really play with this so if Revenue

goes down to forty seven thousand

dollars a vehicle uh 4.2 million

Vehicles by 2025 50pe you're sitting at

a 585 dollar uh future price Target

given how low it is today it's a

complete bargain is what it feels like

hashtag not Financial advice yes I am a

licensed financial advisor but this is

not personalized Financial advice for

you right anyway but what I want you to

see is watch this okay so I'm not going

to add FSD in here because if I add FSD

in here I'm going to take I'm only going

to give it 30 margin right well I want

you to see this okay watch this so

instead of going uh Robo taxi here we're

going to go FSD okay now what we're

going to do is we're going to assume a

30 paid take rate all right so hold on

[Music]

um

let's make

uh this 30 but this needs to be not of

the sales this needs to be of vehicles

there we go so this many vehicles by uh

of new production Vehicles end up buying

FSD and we're going to multiply that by

twelve thousand dollars or the current

cost of FSD right so that's number of

vehicles 4.2 times 30 percent which this

number right here times twelve thousand

dollars okay that's fifteen

billion dollars of of Revenue right here

now we're going to go over here

and uh we need to take uh we need to add

this to cost right so expenses on FSD

expenses on FSD are not going to be 70

they might be closer to 10 above and

beyond the r d expenses which are part

of Opex which we already have right so

now we're only going to do a 10 expense

over here on uh on the FSD Revenue this

is what people don't understand about

Tesla and boy when Wall Street realizes

this holy crap okay so now we're going

to take this expense out let's go ahead

now and add up all of these expenses

let's make sure we actually have all of

our boxes in here let's grab that one as

well enter good now what's the future

price Target look at that that adds a

hundred bucks folks you got a hundred

dollars to the potential future share

price uh by uh by making this change now

you go now type in that this sucker's

selling for 120 bucks a share as its

present value I mean you're you

potentially

see the stock increase 80 percent every

year for the next three years that's

insane

uh in the meantime though you have to

buckle up for bankruptcy because that's

basically the direction we're going in

uh you know it's it's what Warren

Buffett says you know the stock market

can remain irrational longer than you

can remain solvent holy crap it's down

6.4 I started filming this video on the

green candles here and it's like oh it's

okay it's recovering

anyway so so uh I guess this down to 115

don't understand anyway that's why Tesla

is falling the things we talked about oh

wow Arc is down 3.5 the nasdaq's down

1.3 percent holy crap oh my gosh yeah

this is dirty holy smokers

uh anyway so uh yeah welcome to a

recession and substantial fear I am of

the belief that uh there's certainly

more pain ahead especially since

December's not over and just because we

go into a new year doesn't mean that

things actually change

uh however if you do want some more end

of the year tax deductions consider

pre-buying yourself a day of shadowing

uh with Kevin what some people are

actually doing is they're buying

multiple tickets uh so that way uh when

the price goes up they could fly with me

and uh you know March or February or

maybe even January uh and then again in

the summer and again in the in in the

winter uh this we're going to be doing

this for a while so it's going to be

pretty cool uh I think uh it would be

very beneficial if you have not already

bought one of the courses to buy one of

the courses rationale there is uh get

caught up on sort of my perspective

there and and then when we do shadowing

you can be the most efficient with your

time uh that's my thought here so anyway

thank you so much for watching cheers

everyone good luck try to stay sane this

is the irrationality of the stock market

and when things go up things come down

that's the way stocks work and so you

got to go through the pain to enjoy the

gains oh

almost cringe so it's true though it's

just it's it's hard uh but um

oh well

good luck