85% Chance of a Disastrous 2026 under Trump.

Drum Powell is talking on Monday, but

it's not what you think. And we've got

leaked audio with Witco and the

Russians, which is a little

embarrassing. Airbus might end up having

an oopsy dupes that could lead to a lot

of flights getting grounded. We've got

calls for a potential 35% chance of

recession at JP Morgan and only a 15%

chance of real growth in this economy. A

lot of things to break down. And so

today being Black Friday, let's just

start by reminding you to go to meet

Kevin.com, get your Meeke Kevin alpha

report for the Black Friday sale. Make

sure to get your Reinvest AI over at

househack.com or reinvest.co as well.

With that out of the way, let's get

started. Keep in mind, we will be

raising the price massively this weekend

on those. So, make sure you get in

before that price increase. If you see

that Black Friday coupon code is active,

you are good and golden and you are

getting the best price guaranteed. Okay,

so why don't we go ahead and start with

these leaked transcripts before we get

into the recession and markets. I want

to talk a little bit about Putin and

what's going on with Ukraine. So

apparently Witkoff got on the phone with

Yuri, the uh foreign minister of

political affairs in uh in UK uh in

Russia. And the transcript is kind of

bizarre honestly. So uh this is the uh

the transcript right here and I

highlighted the most interesting

components of it. Uh this transcript is

from Bloomberg. It's likely a leaked

transcript that came from uh inside of

Congress because the recording of the

call did end up getting into the hands

of uh committees within Congress. So

that's likely where the transcript of

the call leaked from. And what I find

that's very fascinating here is you

could hear Steve Whit get on the phone

with Yuri here in this transcript. Steve

Whit says, "Well, listen. I'm going to

tell you something. I think if we can

get the Russia Ukraine thing solved,

everybody will be jumping for joy. Yuri,

you actually see a lot of doubt here.

This call, by the way, took place on

October 14th, about 6 weeks ago. But

it's really important because it sets

this groundwork for this quote unquote

28 point peace plan that supposedly is

being negotiated between Trump and the

Russians. Meanwhile, Putin comes out

just yesterday and he's like, I don't

know anything about this plan. This is

nowhere close to final plan. I can't do

a great Putin accent. But the point is,

you can actually see the eagerness of

the Americans here, Steve Whit

specifically, trying to make a deal. And

in my opinion, it comes across as

somewhat childish, how eager the United

States is to get a deal. Uh, of course,

Trump and the Trump administration are

defending it, saying that this is just

negotiating, but let's just stick to the

facts and let you be a decider of what

you think about this. So, take a look at

this. My friend, I just want your invi

advice. Do you think it will be useful

if our bosses talk on the phone? Steve

says, "Yes, I do." Okay. So, so keep in

mind, Yuri, his goal is to get Putin and

Trump on the phone because Putin's

really good at talking and Putin tends

to manipulate Trump to delay. That's

what's happened every single time

there's been a discussion. anytime

things get hard, Putin wants to get on

the phone with Trump and then all of a

sudden magically Putin gets a whole

bunch more time. You know, they start

with this joke of uh Yuri saying, "Yeah,

yeah, yeah. Happy to help you solve this

problem to make sure everybody gets

their joy and is jumping up and down.

You only need to solve one problem and

that's the Russia Ukrainian war." And of

course, Witco says, "How do we get that

solved?" Yuri goes, "Hey, maybe we could

get Putin on the and Trump on the

phone." You know, Trump's ready to do

it. Okay. Hey, Yuri's like, "Great,

awesome." And Yuri's kind of like

sounding like he wants to end the phone

call here. It's like, "Great. Yep. Let's

get Trump and Putin on the phone and be

done." But then Steve Whit, he talks

like 27 times as much as Yuri does. And

listen to his phrasiology.

I would make the call, this is Putin to

Trump, and just reiterate that you

congratulate the president on this

achievement, that you supported it. You

supported it, and that you respect he is

a man of peace and you're just you're

really glad to see it happen. And I

would just say that I think it's going

to be a really good call because let me

tell you what I told the president. I

told the president, you the Russian

Federation have always wanted peace. And

that's my belief. I told the president

that I believe that and I believe the

question is the issue is we have two

nations that are having a hard time

coming together with a compromise. I am

even thinking that maybe we set out like

a 20point peace proposal just like we

did in Gaza. Put a plan together and my

point is this. And then Yuri interrupts.

Okay. Okay. My friend I think the point

is very clear. Our leaders could

discuss. Hey Steve, I agree with you.

Okay. We will suck him. We will suck him

off. Oh, he didn't say it. We will

congratulate. We will say that Mr. Trump

is man of peace and so so and he will

say but Steve, but here's the thing that

I think would be amazing. Yuri, okay.

Okay. And you can kind of tell like

Yuri's just like, "Bro, just get him on

the phone. I don't want to play this

game. Like, I'm done with this call."

And Steve's like, "No, man. I got to

shamwow sell you, bro. I'm sh I'm

selling you on this deal. You got to you

got to suck up to Trump. You got to talk

about how brilliant Trump is." It's like

Steve's basically trying to lay out this

whole plan and then you're okay. Okay.

What if? What if? Hear me out. Okay. I

will discuss with my boss and I come

back to you. Okay. No, no, no, no. Hear

me out. Hear me out. And then he wants

to keep going. Right. And Steve Whit

goes because listen to what I'm saying.

I just want you to say maybe just to say

this to President Putin because I know

you know I have the deepest respect for

President Putin. That's interesting

coming from Steve Whit. But he gets this

to this. Maybe he says to President

Trump, you know, Steve and Yuri

discussed something very similar to the

20point peace plan. That could be

something that could move the needle a

little bit and we're open to some sort

of things. Maybe we could do a land swap

like Daesque and maybe a land swap

somewhere else. And instead of talking

like that, let's talk more hopefully so

we could get a piece done. Steve Witoff

is basically like, can you pump up Trump

and make it seem like he he has hope and

then we could like pitch that we have

some kind of 28 point peace plan and we

could get all this cheer and enthusiasm

that, you know, we're the stewards of

world peace. Okay. Okay. Sounds good.

And here's one more thing. Sinski is

coming to the White House, right?

[snorts]

I know that. I will go to that meeting

because they want me there. But I think

if possible, we will have the call with

Putin before the meeting. Before.

Before. Yeah. Correct. Okay. Okay. I got

your advice. I discussed that with my

boss and come back to you. Okay. Okay.

Yuri, speak to you soon. Great. Great.

Thank you so much. Thanks. You. Bye.

Bye. Bye. Anyway, so like this whole

call really comes across as Witoff like

getting on his knees going, "Please just

get Putin on the phone. Tell Trump how

great he is and how there's potential

for a 28 point peace plan or whatever."

And really the idea there in my opinion

is they're just trying to pop up prop up

that there's hope. Like this is how

Trump negotiates. Okay? If I can come

across as making it seem like the

Russians are on board with 28 point

peace plan, then I could go to Zalinsky

and go the Russians are on board with

the police the peace plan. You should

accept the peace plan. And if Zalinski

accepts it, then they could take that

acceptance and go back to Putin and go I

got him to accept it. I got him to

accept it. And then Putin go, "Okay, one

more change." Right? But the reality is

like Trump and Witkoff are scrambling to

get this 28 point peace plan. They're

going to the Russians and the Russians

like we don't want anything to do with

this. Senci's like, "Bro, this isn't

even close." And you don't really have

anything. So it's an interest like this

dialogue right here, this transcript, I

think, really says we ain't going

nowhere anytime soon with this Russia

Ukraine peace deal. Now, of course,

there's no denying that there's been

corruption in Ukraine, and I know the

probe of uh you know, uh the the de

facto VP who just resigned in Ukraine

doesn't look good, but it's also a sign

that they are chasing corruption uh in

Ukraine. And we also don't know if Andre

was corrupt. you know, he got raided,

but a lot of people are treating him as

guilty until, well, basically proven

otherwise, including David Saxs, who's

in the White House, as the cryptos are.

Saxs is basically cheering. I told you

all the Ukrainians were corrupt two

years ago, and I was right because a

probe is happening. It is kind of

interesting, but that's the sort of

cheering that's going on uh ahead of

actual conclusions coming out. And I

always like to be cautious of things

like that because I think sometimes you

could really put the cart before the

horse and uh cheer about having a deal

when you don't have a deal at all. So

that's a little bit on Ukraine. On top

of that, another piece that got a lot of

attention today was the Washington Post

piece that Hegsath ordered a uh strike

on uh the you know this this was one of

the first strikes on a um one of these

drug ships in the Caribbean. And uh the

ship apparently was targeted by SEAL

team six and they struck the uh ship uh

and nine people appeared to die

immediately. And Pete Hegth gave an

order and said that quote the order was

to kill everybody. And so after the

smoke cleared, this drug fing was then

struck a second time because they saw

two survivors that were holding on to

the shipwreck basically and then they

bombed the two survivors as well. Uh and

so this has been a big messaging play by

Donald Trump that hey, if you smuggle

drugs in the Caribbean, we are going to

blow you out of the water. Uh, and you

know, Donald Trump is cheering this

obviously as a large success that wow,

there all of a sudden very few boats in

the Caribbean. Makes sense because he's

trying to send this deterrent signal.

Uh, makes a lot of sense. So, uh, then,

uh, we've got, uh, Skyling says, "I just

got both programs." Yeah. If you have

any questions, by the way, on the

programs, just quick reminder because I

know it it's confusing. If you have any

questions, first of all, you can always

email us staff@mekevin.com.

But there are really three things,

right? There's meet Kevin, that's the

Alpha Report membership at meetke.com.

The courses, trade alerts, uh you know,

top 10 stocks, whatever, right? That's

one thing. Then there's the Reinvest AI.

That's another thing. Those are on Black

Friday sale. Uh and then of course you

can actually invest in the AI real

estate startup Reinvest, also known as

Houseack. at reinvest.com. Right. So, I

always like to segment that, but I see

you asking here and I want to help you

quickly. All right. So, uh Melania Trump

is also apparently now announcing that

she's going to get into the business of

making movies and she's announced the

formation of Muse Muse Films. Muse Films

is is now being created uh by Melania

Trump. Uh on top of that, I also briefly

watched part of this Cardone and Sailor

interview. I had to click around because

I was really having trouble like

listening to what I've heard Michael

Sailor say about 20,000 times before and

I even listened to Cardone and Eric

Trump just sort of go on about uh uh you

know Bitcoin and a lot of these

arguments we've heard before. But I

think one of the most interesting things

for me is that Cardone argues that now

at least his latest funds or what he's

arguing now is that he's one-third debt,

one-third Bitcoin, and one-third real

estate. And I think that's very

interesting because if you end up in a

volatile market or any kind of

recession, you've really destroyed all

of your downside protection because, you

know, in an extreme example where you

know, Bitcoin, which has happened, is

down 70%. and his real estate's down

like, you know, whatever 10 20% or

something like that, your debt ratios

are going to be so far out of whack that

you might end up being not only negative

cash flow on your real estate assets,

uh, but because you have now debt that's

actually based in part on Bitcoin as an

asset, which seems odd unless you're

talking about appreciated real estate,

uh, but then it's, you know, obviously

not clearly uh, leveraged to what it

could be, which is would be a good

thing, But, uh, like I guess what I'm

trying to say is if you have 1/3 debt,

1/3 Bitcoin, and 1/3 real estate, and

Bitcoin goes through a normal kind of

70% correction cycle, let's just math it

out really quickly to see what your debt

ratios would look like and what your

real estate positioning would look like

relative to that uh to that debt. And I

don't think it's good. So, uh, let's do

it together so you can kind of

transparently see what that would look

like. So, if I go into a quick

spreadsheet and just throw in let's do

uh let's do a you know $100 of we'll

call it crypto, we'll go loans and then

we'll go real estate and we'll go 100 on

each of these. Right? Those are net

assets obviously of 300. Now, if we had

a correction cycle and this was worth 30

for a moment and let's say this was

worth 80. Well, now you've got 110 of

assets. uh sorry you have 200 of of of

actual assets here right so 200 of

assets 100 of loan I should say let me

clear that up a little bit so in this

case you have a 50% uh debt ratio but in

the example over here where you know if

all of a sudden crypto goes through a

down cycle and your real estate goes

down a little bit because you've mostly

bought in sunb belt uh you know

southeast like Texas and Florida where

you're overbuilding and the real estate

market is much more sensitive to these

swings. Now all of a sudden you're at a

debt ratio of almost 1 one. You know you

have 110 million in assets versus $100

million of debt. I think what you've

really done is you've increased your

risk profile, not decreased your risk

profile. I think Cardone is trying to

suggest he's actually derisking by

exposing to Bitcoin. But what he's

actually done is he's introduced massive

volatility to a real estate play. uh

probably to try to attract investors

because I wouldn't be surprised if he's

slowing down on people investing in

Cardone Capital because people are

starting to wake up and realize

Cardone's trying to take a 35% waterfall

and a you know asset under management

fee every single year and an acquisition

fee for acquiring and holding Bitcoin

and real estate. Like it it seems odd to

me and obviously read his documents, get

his exact numbers. This is just roughly

what what I'm gathering from from

briefly watching this interview. And I

think it's wild because I think what

he's done is he's he's exposed himself

to being at a really nasty debt position

by having an asset that is really

aligned with the risk markets which are

at all-time highs. You know, the stock

market is very aligned with crypto and

real estate is usually on a different

cycle. Real estate goes through booms

and busts as well, but usually years

separated from a stock market boom or

bust. Very, very normal. So, usually

what you find, savvy investors will look

for a stock market that's at all-time

highs, and they invest in real estate,

and then when real estate's at all-time

highs, like the Airbnb bubbles or

whatever, they take money out of there,

and they get into the stock market,

which is often at lower levels. You

know, we had this huge Airbnb boom.

Everybody wanted to get into Airbnbs in

late 2021. It really fueled this boom

throughout 2022. Well, the stock market

was at lows in 22, but you still had a

booming real estate market because

people were still getting low interest

rates in the, you know, 3% range. That

that flipped obviously 24 25 where, you

know, the stock market is higher and

real estate market's much more stagnant.

So, I was somewhat surprised that

Bitcoin or Cardone is exposing himself

that that kind of stuff. But, uh, but I

guess he is. So, that covers uh Ukraine,

a little bit on Hegsth, a little bit on

uh Sailor and Bitcoin and Cardone. Uh

we've still got to talk what's going on

with Airbus and what's going on with

Drum Powell. So, let's get Airbus out of

the way. Oh, and then we got to talk

Tesla as well because that'll be quite

fun. So, if you haven't seen it yet, uh

there basically is this massive Airbus

software problem that needs to be fixed.

And it all goes back to an issue that

actually happened on a flight in October

where quote unquote 15 people were sent

to a hospital after a JetBlue flight

drops in altitude forcing emergency

landing. This is like a really scary

headline. But what you have to realize

is when you actually look at this, the

article says that two children and 12

adults were taken to the hospital with

quote minor injuries. So we had minor

injuries, which is often an indicator

that like people almost just went to the

hospital for liability sake or just in

case like people bump their heads or

whatever. I'll check them check you out

just to be sure that the airlines do

that because they want to encourage you

go to the hospital to sort of wipe that

liability. like we didn't discourage you

go from going to the hospital, right?

I'm not saying that these people didn't

belong in the hospital, but I have a

feeling these people didn't belong in

the hospital. Why do I say that? Because

here you could see that uh in the actual

data as Scott pointed out here in the

actual data the aircraft the A320 fell

100 ft

uh because of a flight control issue and

then the pilots pulled it out of that

dive that you know 100 ft mind mind you

dive at 1.4

G's. Okay. So, let's just understand

this for a moment. 1.4 GS,

it's not comfortable. You're going to

feel it as a passenger. It's an

adjustment, but it's probably the extent

of you like bonking your head on the on

the back like suddenly like, whoa, what

happened there? Right. Uh 1.4 GS

relatively minor. You get to 2Gs pretty

quickly doing some steep turns. Uh very

common in flight training. Uh, and the

descent of 100 ft is also by no means a

dive. A 100 ft difference in your

altitude at 30,000 the 35,000 ft. Most

of the time you don't even notice it. It

happens so modestly and so quickly, but

obviously the pilots notice this

deviation in flight control is likely

starting to tilt down and they took over

and presumably overcorrected. I I think

the pilots did the right thing to land

immediately, and this is nothing to say

the pilots did anything wrong, but an

autopilot descent versus a pilot, oh my

gosh, what's happening is going to the

reaction is going to be a little

jerkier. So, my opinion uh here is what

happened with that 100 foot drop, not a

big deal. What matters more is why it

happened. And that's actually the

scarier part. So apparently what

happened was you had a uh flight control

failure because of some form of software

bug in the A320 that may have been

caused by solar flares. And this is

because the A320s are a flyby wire

system. We had this in the Phenom 300.

Basically, what that means is if I push

the throttle forward, I'm not my

throttle lever isn't actually attached

to some kind of lever that attaches to

like the gas valve opening to these

turbine jet engines. Uh, instead, I'm

just sending a computer signal. That's

all the throttle is doing. Like, I may

as well just be turning a little knob or

like I could may as well type into my

computer, set throttle to 99%. it would

do exactly the same thing as pushing

this fancy lever forward.

Point of that is when you have a system

like that, it's a lot harder to fly if

you have software bugs. Because if you

have a software bug, like if I have a

mechanical plane that's not fly by wire,

like it's actually attached and I could

fly the plane like any kind of older

plane or I mean the Phenom 300 as an

example, the jet that that I flew has uh

you know I could steer and I have direct

steering. So you know when I move my

yoke the ailerons of this aircraft move,

right? When I step on the rudders it

moves. But that throttle control column

is all by wire. It's all computers. And

so what happens is if you get solar

flares that somehow create some kind of

bite flip or whatever and you get a

software bug, you got to now uncorrupt

this data to make sure these aircraft

can stay afloat. It's actually kind of

scary because, you know, we should be

grateful we saw that JetBlue flight only

drop 100 ft because the what if they

weren't able to regain control? Now,

obviously, there are many redundancies

and I'm grateful that they're announcing

uh that these aircraft are getting this

software update. It's a pain in the butt

because there are about 6,000 planes and

it takes time for somebody to go around.

You know, you probably have to budget

like an hour per plane or maybe even

more for somebody to go around and

update the software for all these

aircraft. So, the aircraft has to be

taken out of service. Somebody has to be

available to do the software upgrade.

These aren't like Tesla overthe-air

updates. The software updates,

especially on older aircraft, they're a

pain in the butt. They usually involve

manual memory exchanges into the systems

and multiple restarts and verifications.

They're a pain in the butt. If there's

one thing I hated about uh the Phenom

300 software updates most

pea ever, like mechanics charge you $750

just to do a software update. I kid you

not. $750 to do a software update. Like

a free software update. Like the

software doesn't cost you anything to

update. $750 to do it because it's such

pea. [laughter]

It's wild. So now imagine this on a you

know a global fleet of 6,000 of these

aircraft. Yeah. You could see quite a

lot of uh of of downtime over time. Now

a lot of airlines so far some airlines

have actually paused bookings on some of

these aircraft. Uh otherwise, a lot of

them are um uh uh you know, scheduling

to to get these issues fixed. But it's

it's good because the FAA has put out an

airworthiness directive on this uh an

emergency order essentially demanding

that this update uh go into place. And

it's good. That's exactly what they

should do. It's an emergency order that,

you know, basically don't fly the planes

until you upgrade uh the software to fix

this solar flare bug. It's a really big

deal, especially on these aircraft that

are so electronically sensitive. The

software can have bugs. So grateful to

see that they're working on solving

that. Uh now with that, uh I want to

touch on Tesla and then let's talk about

Jerome Powell and markets a bit. So

Tesla had a nice little sort of viral

thread this weekend. It wasn't very

long, but Gary uh Tan basically said,

"Hey, can we get FSD for RVs?" Uh, and

that's really because, you know,

somebody was showing a video of them

driving an RV and how cool it is or

whatever, but how nice it would be to

have full self-driving. And Ashook then

responds from Tesla and says on it with

a picture of the Robbo, which stands for

Robo Van. Now, the Robo Van, mind you, I

kind of think was a little bit of like I

don't I don't want to say it, but it was

a little bit of a scam mostly because

this is my opinion, okay? I think it was

just a remote controlled concept that

they wanted to show off on their robo

day. And that's fine. Like, I get it.

This thing reminds me of I iRoot so

much. I love it. Like, it's really cool.

I want this. Obviously, you don't have

windows in the front. It's really trying

to send this signal of, hey, we can have

a fully autonomous vehicle that can

actually house a lot of people, right?

Like you basically have a bus or an RV

or whatever that drives itself. And I

thought this was really cool. I'm 99%

convinced it was just tea operated,

which makes sense, but the vehicle would

be so cool. And and I love that they're

saying on it because as somebody who

owns the Cybertruck, the Model X, uh,

and the Model S, I would love nothing

and I've had the original Tesla

Roadster. I would love nothing more than

uh FSD, uh, 14.2 or greater on a

Mercedes Sprinter style van or a robo

van, whatever you want to call it. I

will buy it. I will be the first person

to order it and buy it. Like, just make

me a new car. just give me another

product I could buy Elon so I could buy

it, you know, like so juiced on on

autopilot, you know. I was at I was at

the doctor the other day. They're like,

"Oh, we saw you driving the Cybertruck.

How do you like it?" I'm like, "Love

it." Uh you FSD is great. I don't want

to drive a car without it. Sometimes I

have to like the Sprinter van, but it's

just a great great product. Uh I think

the uh the only thing that really gives

it a run for its money and greatness is

the Reinvest AI. Okay, I honestly I have

to say I was going through our test

flight on it earlier and I was like, "Oh

my gosh, this is so cool. I can put in a

zip code anywhere across the United

States and go, show me the deals I

should prioritize." And it's actually

showing me really good deals. And I'm

like, we are about to democratize real

estate with artificial intelligence in a

way nobody's ever done before. And I'm

so excited for it. Uh, and so obviously

you could get, you know, just sort of as

subscribers on YouTube for now because

I'm marketing this myself, right? You

could get lifetime access to our AI on

the reinvest.co website. You know, I

imagine, you know, if Venture Capital

got a hold of us one day because you can

invest in the company as well. Read the

solicitation. This video is not a

solicitation. I imagine if Venture

Capital got a hold of us one day, they

would be really mad that I offered

people lifetime access, but I'm never

going to rug uh my subscribers and my

supporters of the channel. So anyway,

check it out. Go to reinvest.co. I think

it's really cool. You can see our AI

section that's on uh has a Black Friday

sale and then you could check out uh of

course if you want to invest in the

company, read the offering circular and

disclosures. There's risk with every

investment, but you could read about

that. You get uh I mean I feel like

we're valued as a real estate startup uh

pretty low valuation. You know, buck 40

a share uh is the conversion price. And

I think, you know, if if this AI keeps

going the way it is, I mean, we're

already ROI positive on our investments

into artificial intelligence just with

the sales we've done so far, it's really

incredible,

then uh then I think the future is

really bright for the company. Knock on

wood. Uh but anyway, let's now talk

about uh markets and uh Jerome Powell.

So Jerome Powell is expected to speak on

Monday

and a lot of people are wondering if

this is going to be some kind of

rugpull. So Fed Chair Jerome Powell

delivers brief remarks and particip

participates in a panel discussion on

George Schultz and his economic policy

contribution. Event takes place during

Fed Blackout precluding remarks on

economic outlook or monetary policy at

Stanford University. Uh, and there will

be a moderator doing a Q&A.

Now, I think this is actually really

interesting because what this signals to

me is, uh, you know, nothing. [laughter]

Now, a lot of people are going to say,

"Wow, this is actually really weird. Why

is Jerome Powell going to an event

during the Fed blackout period?" And,

uh, it might come across as quite odd

because it is. Like usually you don't

see these events happen uh during the

Fed blackout periods, you know, just 9

days before a rate cut meeting. Uh but I

will imagine that the moderator will be

pretty guarded in terms of allowing any

kind of questions to get through the JPO

that could put him in an uncomfortable

position. I think JPAL will be pretty

good at dodging any kind of economic or

monetary policy questions. But really

what it is strange for them to do a Q&A

event like this during a blackout.

George Schultz was back in the 70s a

Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State,

Secretary of Labor. Uh he's got a big

legacy, uh big legacy of public service.

You know, Powell probably talk up his

integrity and his effort in opposing

Nixon price controls, which have a

little bit of a comparison to tariffs

today and a pushing for basically free

markets and free trade. Like there could

be some talk on that, but broadly, I

don't think we'll get any real clues

there on rate cuts. What's really more

likely to happen in my opinion is we're

going to get a hawkish cut and we'll get

our cut in December, but it will be

hawkish. And that's what brings up this

JP Morgan scenario that not only do we

have this potential 50 35% chance of a

recession where either the US falls by

itself with a 20% downturn chance or all

countries fall with a 15% chance. uh but

that they only actually give us a

Goldilocks chance of 15% for real growth

and that we might be stuck in sticky or

sluggish growth uh or a losing balance

scenario. 50% chance of sluggish or

losing balance with, you know, crappy

labor and then of course a combined 35%

chance of a recession only 15% chance of

real growth. And this comes in the same

piece where JP Morgan actually does have

a bullish price target of the S&P 500

hitting 8,000 by 2026. But it's very

interesting that in the same exact piece

where they say, "Yeah, S&P 500 could hit

8,000 and that's what's getting all the

headlines." In the same damn piece, they

say we really only have a 15% chance of

real growth and a 35% chance of

recession. Not great. Which sort of

delves into what we're seeing at Morgan

Stanley and uh some others. Like for

example, if I look at Morgan Stanley's

piece, uh they've got some interesting

notes here. So Morgan Stanley uh they're

looking at the consumer and what they

think is that the consumer is basically

going to be weak through about March and

April. You could see that in the charts

right here on the right. Goods versus

services spending. They actually think

we're going to be at a hole in the

fourth quarter and in Q1 mostly because

of tariff pull forward and taxes blah

blah blah whatever. Uh, and they think

that for now it's great that rich

households keep spending, but it's going

to take time for the lower part of that

K-shaped recovery to get a boost. And

that's going to come from lower rates on

credit cards and cars, as well as lower

inflation, but it's not going to come

until the second half of next year. So,

expect a consumer discretionary recovery

second half of next year. And in the

meantime, you got to get through the

labor market problems. So tax refunds

probably won't show up until March or

April. Uh I would guess that we could

stick a soft landing if we can make it

to May, like April, May with good

employment data. But keep in mind, you

know, somebody on my live stream was

like, "Oh, but Kevin Hasset's coming."

Bro, Kevin Hasset ain't coming for

another 7 and 1/2 months. Like, think

about that. Kevin Hasset won't actually

have a Fed meeting uh to attend until

June 17th because Powell's term ends May

15th. There's no Fed meeting in May. And

so June 17th would be the first meeting

that Kevin Hasset could attend to. That

is seven and a half months away. That's

not good. So you got quite a while to

wait to get to Kevin Hasset. You got a

lot of unemployment problems to get to

until then. And hopefully we've had good

Black Friday data. I mean, I know that,

you know, our Black Friday stuff has

been doing great, but but I also know

that people investing in, you know, the

Meet Kevin membership or in the uh the

Reinvest AI or even in in Reinvest the

company itself, these are investors, you

know, these are people investing in

their wealth. These are people wanting

uh to make money. These are, you know,

you you listening to this video, you're

not like that dime a dozen person who,

you know, wants to hear uh far-left crap

or far-right crap. Like, I feel like

you're a reasonable and rational person,

mostly in the middle. You know, you

might be 20 30% to one direction. That's

okay. It's okay to have, you know, a

side. Uh but I think that you're you're

looking for a true understanding of

what's going on in the economy and

what's happening. Uh, and based on that,

uh, really the consumer spending that

we're seeing outside of like these sort

of investment style products, uh,

Bloomberg is suggesting it's Gen Z kind

of stuff. Teenaged brands are winning

because they're pitching better deals

like Bed Bath and Beyond, Brandy

Melville, I don't even know what the

hell that is. Kendra Scott stuff, uh,

Etica,

whatever. like they're basically saying

it's it's these teeny bopper brands that

are doing well, but otherwise Black

Friday has been pretty crappy is so far

one of the initial assessments of what's

going on with consumer spending. Now

consumer sentiment has already told us

as much that consumer sentiment is total

trash right now. Not great. But really

what we should look at is the labor

market and the risk is that we normalize

on the beaver rich curve. We already

know about this. we normalize over here

because the more layoffs we have a

problem. Now there is an upshot and the

upshot uh would be that we actually end

up seeing a pickup in labor force

participation in 2026. So basically uh

or or sorry we see let me rephrase that.

They're saying we have seen an uptick in

youth labor force participation and if

we go back to a normalization next year,

participation doesn't expand as much,

which means the unemployment rate stays

more stable. Okay, so they actually

think the participation rate will

decline in 2026 and 27. The thing that

could really lead to a surge of

participation would be the stock market

falling and then a bunch of people rush

back into working and that'll shoot the

labor market, you know, way high in

unemployment and then you have your

recession. But here, uh, Morgan Stanley

is arguing they only see a 4.7%

unemployment rate going into 2026. And

this roughly aligns with what you're

seeing with some of these other

outlooks, which we're going to look at

in just a moment. Uh a more bearish

point of view is right here from US

macro strategy from MUFG

and they argue that deteriorate like

recoveries in markets happen very slowly

but deteriorations happen very rapidly

and they say that we see a risk of a

more rapid decline in the months ahead

as firms stop hoarding labor. And so

this really puts us through what I'm

kind of going to start calling like a

labor lull where you're probably going

through this decline right here and then

you might have even more of a labor

hole. And this is what we're going

through. And we're hoping that this

labor hole of Q4 is just temporary or

transitory and that we actually get back

to growth next year. That would be the

best case scenario. But the problem is

uh they see here that firms might stop

hoarding labor if Black Friday sales and

Q4 sales are bad or January sales are

bad. People are like that's it. We can't

hold you anymore. You're out of here.

And then you get this surge of layoffs

in February uh and January which then of

course drops spending and then what do

you have then? Well, I mean then you're

in a recession. Uh so we'll see.

Hopefully not obviously. Now, Morgan

Stanley also uh takes a peek at uh

investment themes. Obviously, artificial

intelligence being one of the most

desirable here. Something when it comes

to the market here is that so far it

looks like earnings remain resilient.

You're getting revisions written up on

earnings expectations, which is good.

They're bullish on things like Gap and

Macy's and Urban Outfitters. I think

they might be a little early on that

although we have seen some consumer

discretionaries come back like Dave and

Busters over the last four or five days.

Uh you know another one like Six Flags

has come back a little bit. Targets come

back a little bit over the last 5 days.

Uh but of course they think that AI

capex is really only going to be

constrained by debt which is exactly how

I feel. Debt is the only thing that's

going to hold back this artificial

intelligence spend that is otherwise

booming. They think agentic shoppers are

coming and that's going to be good for

Amazon, Walmart, and Wayfair, but maybe

bad for companies like Etsy or FGS. My

opinion pins on that. Uh, and then of

course they argue here that, you know,

sure, uh, there's a lot of fear about a

Gen AI investment bubble, but a lot of

folks are looking for, okay, well, can

we at least get real revenue? And this

is where I'm throwing us at least, you

know, I'm not trying to say we're like a

palente or meta or Google or Microsoft

at all. I'm just trying I put us up here

because we are seeing positive returns

already on our artificial intelligence.

So, you know, we've invested in

Blackwell chips. We've invested in AI

infrastructure. And what we're finding

is that just with the product we're

selling so far on AI, we already have a

positive ROI on every dime that we have

spent on artificial intelligence at

Houseack and ship investments and

developers and software development or

whatever. We have a positive ROI on that

already. Uh, and that's really

incredible. And I mean, like I I get it

because I also I look at the product

myself and as somebody who's done real

estate for, you know, 15 years, I look

at this, I'm like, "Oh my gosh, I could

put any zip code in the country in here

and I could prioritize what deals to

look at." Like, this is sick. I could

sort them by uh, you know, most recent

listings. I could sort them by potential

value, like what rating they're given.

This is great. And there are even more

features obviously coming out in 2026.

So, we're really excited about it and we

think people share that enthusiasm with

us. A and so if companies can do that,

you know, if a company like Palunteer

can prove to corporations, hey, if you

invest a,000 bucks in us, we'll get you

a $100,000 return, why would people not

throw more $1,000 at it, right? I think

that's what Palanteer seeing. I think

that's what Meta seeing and Google

seeing and Microsoft seeing. Now, of

course, is it going to turn at some

point? Sure. Like, at some point, there

just won't be any more debt to finance.

This is why we want to expand without

debt. Uh but uh and we are but this is

very interesting to me. This uh oh not

this one uh this this fin this cost of

debt right here. This AI capex might

also be relatively price insensitive.

Uh and so in other words companies are

like hey if we have to pay a higher

interest rate we will but we want to

attract that capital to uh to to invest

into into AI. So the boom kind of keeps

going which is interesting because it

kind of gives you this weird duality

like how on one hand is there a 35%

chance of recession but on the other

hand people are going to keep booming

money into artificial intelligence and I

think the only way to reconcile that is

with this A&Z research piece where you

basically say look AI is the economy

right now right we can't deny that AI

investments are a bright spot for the

economy no no way you can deny that we

expect a 25 basis point

But here's the thing. The weak labor

market could ruin everything. So like

the way I look at it is if we have this

pendulum, okay, this is like the the

pendulum over here and it's swinging.

Okay, and this right here is the

recession. I should really put that on

the left side. That'll be the left tail.

If that's recession and that's

Goldilocks and we're kind of just

swinging back and forth, what pushes us

to recession is only labor, right? And

you could actually have a labor-led

recession

and AI investment booms. It's just

you're not going to see that AI

investment boom in the stock prices

anymore. So, you'll still see the AI

investment boom go on for a while. So, I

think Bur's like years early on this

depreciation curve issue, but I find

this a somewhat interesting analysis,

especially since I mean, at least right

now, we're not seeing a risk of

recession yet as ANZ says, but as we

hear from other companies, hey, 35%

chance next year for a recession. And

when you look at what uh where is it? M

where are they? Where are they? I lost

them. Uh oh, I already closed them. What

uh what the Bears say, the uh the MUFG

group, when you look at their macro

outlook, it's kind of like well remember

deteriorations happen suddenly. And so

this is where I I'm of this middle

mindset where I say like it this is not

a question of to invest or not. like

definitely invest, but do you want to

invest in a place where if you get

rugpulled because some deterioration

happens all of a sudden and you weren't

prepared for it that you go bankrupt and

you start over or do you want to invest

in a way where if the market goes down

it doesn't matter you could actually buy

more. I like the latter. I think that's

great because you don't want to be

exposed to a poop oopsy dupes. So

that then leaves the December uh Fed

meeting. And the December Fed meeting,

unfortunately, is one that I think will

be a negative catalyst. It'll be

hawkish. And because I think they're

going to be hawkish, you're going to end

up having more sensitivity to data in

December. So, I get bearish after really

December 9th. So, we'll see. Uh now some

people are already hedging this like

what you're finding with Oracle's credit

protection. Credit default swaps at

Oracle are now at almost as high. Wait,

let's see here. The price of a 5-year

credit default swap is at risk of

toppling a record set in 2008

on uh borrowing, which is crazy uh

because that's scary, right? Like we

don't want to be in that kind of place.

uh Oracle CDS has hit a record 1.9

percentage points in 2008 and uh you

know right now we're sitting at about

130 120 130 so we're trending back to

what we saw in 2008. This could just be

hedging or it's an early warning sign.

That's also why people are looking at

gold and silver going okay oh people are

running to the precious metals and away

from risk assets because they're

nervous. might explain also why

Palanteer stock has had its worst month

in two years during the AI sell-off and

that was published today. So like even

today it couldn't really come back uh to

to that growth level. So you know we'll

see. At the same time you still have

venture capital funds that are quote

unquote snapping up zombies like brands

like Evernote and Meetup and Vimeo.

They're buying these companies, cutting

the staff, and then they're trying to

like milk them for what they're worth by

raising prices. Kind of wild. But, uh,

this puts together, I think, a very

consolidated view overall of of what's

going on out there. Now, I'll take just

a, uh, one last moment here just to

mention, uh, this Reinvest course is

part of the Meet Kevin membership. It's

going to have brand new lectures and

some really good quality stuff. You're

not going to want to miss. Uh this whole

course is going to drop along I mean all

the other ones are already out but the

new course will drop uh on um December

1st. So uh if you want to be in you know

get that new content it will come out on

December 1st which I'm very excited

about. Uh and then uh in addition to

that you are uh looking at reinvest.co

has its Black Friday sale as well. Uh so

take a look at that lifetime access to

the AI reinvest.co. If you get that you

could bundle up the meet Kevin

membership. Get uh lifetime access to

the meet Kevin membership over there

which comes with all the uh courses

lifetime access to those. That's why you

get the new courses as well. So existing

members will benefit from that as well.

Uh top 10 stocks to buy for the next 10

years. You know not personalized advice

obviously. And then if you want to

invest in house obviously make sure to

read the offering circular and uh read

the risk factors. So there you go.

Thanks so much for hanging out and uh

we'll see you in the next one. Goodbye.

And

>> why not advertise [music] these things

that you told us here? I feel like

nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, [music] man. You have

done so much. People love you. People

look up to you.

>> Kevin Praat there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your [music] take.