BIGLY TRUMP CHINA NEWS

All right, here it is. Donald Trump and

Xiinping to discuss lowering China

tariffs for fentanyl crackdown. Now, we

were expecting to get this on Tuesday.

Sorry, on Thursday. Today's Tuesday,

right? We were expecting to get this on

Thursday. So, we're getting this 2 days

earlier than expected, which is leading

the market to get really excited here

because we're getting good news earlier

than expected. We're already expecting

mostly bullishness out of Powell

tomorrow, but we were expecting to get

the China news on Thursday and

potentially some skittishness before

Thursday because of the anticipation of

oh, is Trump going to actually be able

to pull this off? Here we are on Tuesday

getting a present two days early and so

far it looks like I'm getting some

headlines here because this is just now

breaking news. Trump she to discuss

lowering China tariffs for fentanyl

crackdown. US would cut in half the 20%

levies on Chinese goods imposed in

retaliation for the export of chemicals

that make deadly synthetic opioids.

At the same time, Nvidia unveils new

quantum equipment to connect quantum

processors with Nvidia chips. Nice. Uh

okay. So then we have, you know, also

now at the same time you've got Israel

bombarding Gaza. Now, one of the wings

of Hamas is saying it will postpone

Tuesday's handover of deceased hostage

body. It recovered because of now what

they're saying is Israelis violations.

There's a lot going on right now. Okay,

but let's look at this China news

because this is what the good news is

right now. The rest doesn't I mean the

quantum computing part sounds good. The

Israel Hamas thing doesn't sound good.

It's hard to negotiate with the Splinter

Cell, you know, group. I mean, what do

you got like 30 different Hamas groups

out there right now? There's no core

leadership. How do you negotiate with

that? But anyway, take a look at this.

The US would roll back some tariffs on

China if Beijing cracks down on the

export of chemicals that produce

fentanyl. That's an easy win for China

to pick up because they could easily

say, "Oh yeah, we'll we'll do that.

Yeah, we'll crack down on crime and bad

chemicals. Sure. Yeah, we don't mind."

China is expected to commit to more

controls on the export of precursor

chemicals. Of course, that's an easy

win. So, if Trump gives them an easy out

to taco, then we get taco. I mean,

what's what's the taco scale right now?

Because it's basically going to go up.

So, if we go to meet Kevin.com/data,

we can see where the taco scale is. The

taco scale right now is right here. 8.9

out of 10 on the taco scale. Uh, pretty

much, and I wrote Trump pretty much full

taco on China. Okay. Honestly, we're

probably now at like a 9.2. I probably

got to revise this up. We're even more

taco now because this is such an easy

out for China. Hey guys. Guys, we will

lower our tariffs in half if you just

promise to try a little harder on those

on those deadly chemicals.

Okay. All right. It's a deal then. We'll

cut the tariffs in half. [laughter]

A synthetic opioid blend for hundreds of

thousands of drug overdoses. In return,

the US could cut fentanyl related

tariffs by as much as 10%. That's pretty

bullish. Uh, you know, bringing those

because that now brings your trade your

average tariff from like 55% down to 45%

on China. Uh, and you know, that's Yeah,

there it is. Ah, that's the very next

line. Currently around 55% down to 45%.

Yep. That would put China's average

tariff rate closer to those of other

trading partners, potentially reducing

the price competitiveness of

manufacturing outside of China. Right.

Because that's what China doesn't want.

People don't want to like have to leave

China and relocate and China doesn't

want that either because well frankly

you know China wants to be the

manufacturing powerhouse of the world so

it's sort of a win for China. Uh makes

sense. Goods from India and Brazville

face a 50% tariff right so that

potentially prevents Apple from leaving

Foxcon China to do Foxcon uh you know

India. The Trump administration has said

Chinese goods shipped through the

Southeast Asian nations would face a 40%

tariff higher than the 19 to 20%. The

administration reached two trade

agreements for uh frameworks with

Southeast Asians this week,

including provisions that prevent China

from exporting goods through at below

market prices. That's fair. That's

that's the trans shipping argument.

Fentanyl negotiations

a long-standing issue. I think honestly

the fentanyl stuff was really just sort

of a ruse to get negotiations going uh

with China under the framework. China's

also expected to commit to a significant

purchases of American soybeans. Good. I

mean that's what they consistently had

been doing. So now they just come back

to do what they had previously done.

Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs.

Chinese negotiators have insisted that

China won't lift retalatory duties and

resume purchases of American soybeans

until the fentanyl tariffs are removed.

So, who's actually winning here? So, to

me, it somewhat sounds like China is

kind of getting what they want here. Uh,

I'm curious to see if the Global Times,

which is basically your Chinese

propaganda, uh, has anything to say

about this. So US Japan summit

China India this is the Azian protocols

fine I don't actually see anything here

with

China and the United States yet

because this is just such breaking news.

So I'll have to keep an eye on this. uh

if agreed to the framework would ease

because this the Wall Street Journal

probably got this leak from insiders uh

in the Trump administration and we don't

have China's POV on this yet but I

anticipate China will roll on that

they'll gladly say oh yeah we'll work on

those precursors so that's going to be a

win for China and the US is going to try

to leverage them to drop their 20%

retaliatory tariffs or their retalatory

tariffs. Here we go. If agreed, the

framework would ease tensions. Earlier

this month, China tightened controls on

rare earths. In turn, Trump threatened

another 100% tariff on China, which

they've already tacoed on. Now, under

the new framework, the US expects China

to delay new rare earth rules. I believe

that they're going to delay that for a

year. Dude, a taco a year.

The expected deferral on China's latest

rare earth controls. Well, keep in mind,

China's smart about this. If China

delays the rare earth uh uh sort of

threat, yes, it buys the United States

more time to produce their own rare

earths, but it also takes pressure off

of us to produce our own rare earths.

Remember in the Meet Kevin Alpha report,

Schumer Siesta coupon code expires

tomorrow.

>> Coupon linked below.

>> Uh we called that MP material would run

to 100 and reject 100 is exactly what

happened. And the trend has been down

since then. Now we're hanging out right

now at the 6578

line roughly. It's just a basic fib

retracement line over here. But there's

a likelihood that if China does go for a

year extension, it puts the pressure off

of like rushing investments into MP. You

probably unfortunately continue to see a

bleed down on MP for the time being

because it takes the pressure off. It's

kicking the can down the road. It's like

it's not just 90 days anymore. It's a

it's literally a 12 month deferral.

Uh, Chinese negotiators are expecting

the US to freeze potentially new policy

actions deemed harmful to China, right?

So, basically everything that we

threatened against China, we'll just

remove. So, like what progress has been

made? Who knows? But it's it's taco. I

mean, that's what the stock market

reacts to. Uh, it's been taco since

April. That's why the stock market's

been straight up since April. It's

unclear how the framework would affect a

different set of rare earth restrictions

that Beijing announced in April. The

established licensing system suggests

that authorities could ramp up rare

earth restrictions again. Of course,

that just gives them leverage. That's

what the Chinese are doing. They're

building that leverage so they can

that's why they're doing this licensing

thing with companies and and why they're

trying to restrict US companies and so

that they can not only monitor where

exports and imports are going and coming

from, but so that they could quickly

restrict them should they ever need to.

This is China preparing for more, you

know, announcements

from Trump. Uh so, okay, I mean, this is

this is bullish earlier than we thought.

Now, this is leaked information from the

journal, but it basically indicates that

for very very little from China, Donald

Trump is essentially willing to roll.

Now, it's good news, okay? But it it it

kind of means that the Trump

administration doesn't actually think

they have much of a hand here because

they're screwed on rare earth and

they're screwed on soybeans which hurt

American farmers which are like mostly

Trump voters, right? So like Trump

basically just has to roll back all of

his nonsense

to hopefully get China to roll back

their retaliation.

Who cares what that means? Like

politically, this isn't meant to be like

a jab at Trump or whatever. It's

bullish. Remember the caddies that we

had this week were Powell tomorrow,

Trump China on Thursday. If Trump is

this willing to roll already in

basically pre-announced negotiations to

the Chinese, because that's what they're

doing here. They leak it to the Wall

Street Journal on purpose so China can

sit there and go, "Oh, look Journal has

update." I don't know why that sounds

like German, but anyway, they go read

the Wall Street Journal and they're

like, "All right, we've now

pre-negotiated basically. Now there's

very little left to do. Trump's

basically walked on everything." So they

go into the meeting and go, "Yeah, sure.

We'll try harder on fennel. All right,

we'll take down some of the tariffs."

And so basically, we win the reduction

of these tariffs. The stock market loves

that. I mean, you might actually see

some benefit to some of the furniture

importers as well. maybe less so

because, you know, you've got like

Taiwan uh and and you know, some of the

other uh countries that um Restoration

Hardware, for example, will use versus

China. But yeah, I mean, look at that.

You could clearly see Restoration

Hardware, it's up from the 170s where it

was about a week ago. And you can see

that rotation here just on the Chinese

trade deal now up 4.9%. And this classic

beneficiary here of uh of lower tariffs

and a reduction of of tariffs in the

whole region. So, this is good news way

earlier than we expected. It's very

bullish. Uh, and it and honestly, if you

pair this with what you got with the ADP

weekly numbers, we're not on a bad trend

here. So, if you download the Meet Kevin

app, you'll see what I wrote about the

ADP numbers this morning, but the ADP

just started releasing weekly data,

which is a gamecher, right? Uh because

we don't have like public data, BLS

data. So now the ADP rugged the Fed and

said, "We're not going to secretly give

you weekly data anymore." And then, you

know, a week later, they come out and

they're like, "JK, we're just going to

give it to everybody." So ADP releases

this report. Uh, and they basically tell

us that jobs for the four weeks ending

October 11th were 14,250, which is great

because if you look at the September

read, we had -32 on the ADP, but you

have to kind of adjust like add their

adjustment back in. And if you add the

adjustment back in that they made, which

was 43,000 as an adjustment, if you add

that back in, you were at actually

11,000 jobs for all of September, that

4-week average. So basically adding in

the average of the first 11 days of

October moved us up to 14,000, which

means jobs are not falling off a cliff.

So, if jobs are not falling off a cliff

and we're getting taco and we're getting

25 BP of cuts, it's kind of bullish if

you think about it. Like, none of that's

bearish. Now, again, I still maintain

the the like the bearish part could be

the government reopening because then

you'll actually get like a dual labor

report. But think about this. Fed 25 BP,

right? 25. What the hell? 25 BP. There

we go. Fed 25 BP Fed stop QT. Okay, what

is that? That's bullish. What's 25?

That's bullish. That's priced in at like

a 97% chance. What else is bullish? The

Schumer Siesta, ironically continuing

is is actually bullish.

Why is it bullish? Because we don't get

data. THE SCHUMER SIESTA continuing is

great. Now, in fairness, the Schumer

Siesta coupon code expires tomorrow.

uh which you know it's probably a

bullish thing because you can get in

before the price goes up. You got time.

But anyway, the Schumer Siesta

continuing is actually bullish.

25 BP is bullish. The China trade deal,

China taco is bullish, right? So what

else is there now? The bad news, the

only bad

27 weeks unemployed

still rising. Uh and then of course uh

uh you know layoff announcements which

you know Amazon got so much flack for

that's why they're now like branding it

down as well I mean it could be as low

as 14,000. You know we don't want to

make it seem like it's worse than 2022

even though it probably will be because

they're laying off up to 30,000 workers.

But broadly I mean who cares? Layoff

announcements are going to take quite a

while to actually trickle through the

economy. This will be slow burn. So

there's nothing like falling off a cliff

here. Now, sometimes what you'll

actually find is treasury yields can

sometimes go down when you get less uh

of of these tariff threats. Yeah. A

little bit. 10-year Treasury down 1.2

bips. Why? Not uncommon because we see

tariffs as inflationary, right? So, and

and that keeps bond yields up. So, uh it

you know increases your opportunity cost

for for uh bonds because inflation is

higher. So broadly this deescalation is

good. You're seeing that deescalation in

gold as well. Uh back under uh what are

we at now? 3969. So back under 4K. So

broadly this is a treat. This is a

treat. We just got well before expect.

Look at this. Up another one and a bit

here on restoration hardware. The Q's

the Q's were really doing nothing uh

until this this you know started coming

out over here. We were trading mostly

sideways. If anything, we were trading

down for most of the day. Uh mo and this

is normal because we were like preparing

for, oh, what's going to happen with the

China deal on Thursday? Well, here we

go. We're getting full taco. Full taco.

So, it's great. Uh somebody writes here,

net bullish, short medium-term. Totally,

totally agree. I don't mind the joke

with taco, but how is it taco when the

tariff remained and is only going down

because China's negotiating? It never

went down until China came to the table

confused. I don't even know what you're

saying. I think what you're trying to

say uh is it's going down because Trump

and China are agreeing to talk. But like

let's be clear here. What we just read

in the Wall Street Journal is very

clear. All right, we'll start cutting

tariffs down. If you just promise to

enforce crime a little bit more, it's an

easy hit. It's an easy give up. That's

my point. It shows the sincerity of

being like really brutal to China isn't

really that desirable. This isn't

actually really about protecting

American manufacturing, right? This is

it's a game. That's such an easy give

up. Uh so, uh let's see here. Uh let's

see here. Nvidia, somebody writes,

"Nvidia cruising." Yeah, they've got

that the event going on which is

exciting. The quantum chip uh as well.

Nvidia now all-time highs. Uh, Apple

across the four trill market, which is

pretty awesome. What else are y'all

saying here? China loss. Yeah, I mean

there. Let's see here. Somebody else

says he needs them to buy soybeans,

right? So, we'll see. We'll see. He says

he's not tacoing out. It's a negotiating

tactic. Well, I mean, yeah, but that's

that's tacoing, right? Because the whole

premise of taco is from a stock market

point of view. I think people think that

taco is supposed to be like offensive to

to Donald Trump. Remember I said that

this has nothing to do with trying to

like, you know, suck the wiener of

Trump. Like I don't give a flying f

about your politics. I care about the

stock market. And from a stock market

point of view, all Taco says is these

tariffs aren't going to last. Over time,

they will go away. Whether they go away

because Trump walks them back seems to

be very easy to do or they go away

because a new administration comes in

and gets rid of them. They will go away

eventually and then we'll be facing you

know beautiful disinflation hopefully

deflation and prices will actually come

down. Although you have to be careful

because if you wish for too much

deflation you often end into you walk

into an economic recession or

depression. So it's kind of like a

double-edged sword asking for prices to

come down right. So yeah, so something

to pay attention to right there. Uh so

what how else is the market removing uh

moving now? So this should mean that uh

yeah, TLT is up like 20 bips. Fact it's

actually green today on the eve of the

Fed is is great. You've got Axon up.

Somebody here in the chat's mentioning

figs or not fig uh fig talk about figure

technology is up 6% today. Yeah, nice.

This was one of the buys that I did uh a

few weeks ago in the lower 30s. I think

it was in the lower 30s, maybe mid-30s,

but anyway, 40 44 45 bucks almost here.

I think that's almost alltime highs.

It's kind of cool. Uh but anyway, so

make sure to join uh the Meet Kevin

Alpha Report linked below and get all

the courses on building your wealth as

well as the alpha report every day the

market is open. Could even be a tax

write off for you. Get a little end of

the year tax write off in there. coupon

linked below.

>> Kevin is very talented, but I don't know

it's going to be him, but he's a very

talented guy.

>> Kevin's somebody would consider Kevin is

fantastic, too.

>> I think that Kevin's a a brilliant guy,

and I think that we'd we'd we'd all be

very lucky to have him. [music]

>> Kevin is much more interested than most

people, by the way, in the balance

sheet.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, [music] man. You have

done so much. People love you. People

looked up to you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and [music] YouTuber Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.