BUY or SELL Tesla Stock [TSLA].

should you buy tesla stock a company

with over one hundred thousand employees

a three gigafactories for vehicles

battery plant a solar plant a research

plant and an over one trillion dollar

evaluation with a fourth gigafactory for

vehicles opening in texas next week in

austin by the way that opening i will be

attending and i'll also be at teslacon

texas the next day but more on them

later in this video we're going to

review whether or not it actually still

makes sense to invest in tesla today

though what my plan for tesla is and

some insight in terms of what you should

be considering if you're thinking

of buying tesla stock so let's start

with exactly those considerations and

then get into my financial models for

tesla the first consideration you have

to think about when it comes to tesla is

the fact that we are in an environment

of glow slowing global vehicle

production and when you compare tesla to

other companies slowing growth is the

last thing we want to hear about because

tesla does have a relatively substantial

valuation consider this toyota has a

price to earnings ratio of under 10. at

the same time the institute for highway

safety is projecting a three percent

decline in vehicle production because of

the war between russia and ukraine that

works out to about 2.5 million fewer

units of total global vehicle production

bringing us down to about 81.6 million

vehicles this year and with tesla you're

paying a lot for a growth story but

tesla is growing see toyota for example

might not be valued as well because

they're not growing as much as tesla or

anywhere near close to tesla in fact

toyota is pausing production due to a

lack of parts with substantial supply

chain issues toyota usually produces

around eight and a half to nine million

vehicles per year but has been falling

behind due to these issues and in

december toyota reported that its

worldwide sales were actually down seven

percent

and its sales have been shrinking for

four consecutive months they also

outlined plans that in q1 and q2 of 2022

their expectations are for even fewer

deliveries now scaling back vehicle

production another 12 on top of the

already seven percent decline that we've

seen at the same time tesla is still

growing so maybe it's not fair to

compare companies solely on p e ratio

after all in 2023 wall street expects

about 11 percent growth as a supply

chain issues a bait for toyota but then

wall street only expects growth of 4.3

percent in 2024 6 growth in 2025 1.8

percent growth in 2026. this works out

to an average of roughly three to four

percent average annual growth for a

company like toyota whereas wall street

is right now pricing in

25

average growth every single year for the

next five years for tesla now bullish

tesla investors expect this revenue

growth to actually be closer to 45 to 50

percent but

this is one of the reasons you see a

massive disparity between tesla's

valuation compared to legacy automakers

the fact that you have substantial

growth now of course maybe that's

already priced in though after all tesla

does have a p e today of 219 and based

on wall street's growth expectations of

that average 25 growth will maybe

collapse that pe to around 53 in 2025

but that's still 10 times that of toyota

so to invest in tesla you really have to

believe that not only is tesla going to

meet that wall street estimate of 25

growth you actually have to believe that

wall street is substantially

undervaluing tesla's expected growth and

that tesla might actually grow in excess

of twice what wall street is presently

expecting and that could be a reason for

investing in tesla even at higher pes

compared to companies that are much

later in their growth curves remember

folks growth curves generally symbolized

by an s-curve on a chart are all about

slow growth when we begin

substantial growth once we actually ramp

production and then a slowing cycle this

is why we call an s curve because it

looks like the shape of an s based on

wall street's projections toyota is up

here at the relatively flat end of the

s-curve now some say hey don't worry

maybe legacy automakers can actually

create a new s-curve within the upper

you know these these upper regions the

problem is a lot of the legacy

automakers already have the problem of

the law of large numbers if you're

already producing seven to eight million

vehicles how much are you really growing

if you're just producing let's say one

million evs now and you're now not

producing one million say gas camrys or

ice vehicles right so is that even

really growth this is one of probably

the motivators for ford actually

splitting their company into two an

electric division and an ice division or

internal combustion engine division

tesla of course is expected to be much

closer to this section of the growth

curve that is even if we end up

delivering just over a million vehicles

maybe even up to 1.2 1.3 1.4 million

vehicles here in 2022 despite all these

supply chain issues

tesla has goals and ambitions of

delivering over 10 million vehicles per

year which obviously at that point tesla

would be much more up here in the growth

curve and usually the earlier we are in

startup companies we tend to have

exorbitant p e ratios in fact over here

in the startup section you can

oftentimes have a terrible drawing of

the infinity symbol here

there you go you can often have an

infinite pe ratio as a company's losing

money and then of course you go into

profitability but you're selling for

multiple sometimes as much as a thousand

or 200 times earnings or a hundred times

earnings and eventually once that growth

curve starts curving that's when you see

these multiple valuations compress and

you go to sort of like an apple level

multiple or maybe you're selling for 30

or 40 times as that growth curve comes

down so things to consider is evaluation

and growth when you're thinking about

tesla especially relative to some of the

legacy automakers the second thing that

you do have to keep in mind is we do

have covet issues potentially

slowing down production in tesla

shanghai or in the tesla shanghai

gigafactory now there's really nothing

we can do about this but we do know that

for every day of a shutdown we have in

shanghai we lose about

2018 vehicles per day so just five days

of a shutdown and we could end up

delivering 290 000 vehicles instead of

300 000 vehicles in a quarter now we're

gonna get tesla delivery estimates soon

and those really aren't that big of a

deal in this video because for me this

is more of a 2025 valuation video than

it is to speculate on the current

deliveries expect tesla will do just

fine but hey you know what

you'll see at the end of this video but

between you and me i wouldn't mind if

they missed deliveries we'll talk about

that more

the next thing that you really have to

consider beyond covet because eventually

unless of course we get another covet

variant hovid will go away the third

thing that you have to consider has to

do with supply chains obviously war is

wrecking supply chains wire harnesses

are stuck in ukraine stalling production

in europe nickel used in batteries and

neon used in semiconductors were stuck

in massive supply disruptions because of

a lot of this production coming from

ukraine which is now obviously in a

state of war

and shipping costs have gone through the

roof as shippers prioritize just

shipping around war areas and taking

massive premiums for this while at the

same time you've got massive backlogs at

ports and of course very expensive

freight premiums so you put a lot of

pressure here on delivering and

transporting vehicles and parts which

puts pressure on vehicle margins however

tesla has a couple advantages here first

they've actually they have many

advantages here the first biggie here is

tesla's move which is really a first

mover advantage here into really trying

to mass produce those lithium iron

phosphate batteries this is something

that byd in china does as well these are

cheaper and more resistant to thermal

overload they avoid the issues of trying

to source nickel from

from ukraine that of course being for

the nickel cobalt aluminum style

chemistry for batteries which these are

oftentimes used in higher performance

vehicles they could run at higher

voltages but a lot of tesla vehicles are

just fine

with lithium iron phosphate batteries

and because now we can avoid the

shortages of nickel by using a different

battery chemistry maybe tesla won't be

too impacted here with the exception of

maybe their more high performance

vehicles like the tesla model x plaid or

the tesla model s plaid but those

deliveries tend to be a small percentage

of tesla's overall revenues anyway now

tesla opening a berlin factory does mean

that shipping from china that is from

shanghai to europe is now minimized and

that potentially could actually increase

margins as we reduce freight fees now of

course anytime you ramp factories

margins generally are low to start with

and then margins substantially improve

so we're going to go through a volatile

period of trying to get gigatexas and

giga berlin online and there could be

some margin misses at tesla in the short

term but in the long term i expect all

these issues to smooth out and after all

another big advantage tesla has is

they're a master of supply chain

management very much like apple is now

ultimately who pays for the increase in

costs in general like commodity costs

well right now folks that's you with a

consumer

margins really seem to be insulated for

elon musk and tesla because we continue

to see price increases for example the

chinese model y just had its first price

hike for a base model y in china up two

thousand seven hundred seventy two

dollars or just under five percent and

this follows two other price hikes on

chinese models and numerous price hikes

on american models basically tesla is

saying hey look we're dealing with a lot

of inflation costs are going up and

we're going to pass those costs on

directly to the customer which in the

case of tesla the customer is more than

willing to pay that is tesla has pricing

power which is actually a huge advantage

during an inflationary period of time

this is unlike the lack of pricing power

that macy's and coca-cola have see

macy's is struggling raising the prices

of mattresses coca-cola is having

trouble raising prices even though their

input costs are going up because the

consumers are finding alternates because

the prices are going up too much as soon

as the consumer says no

that means the company has to start

absorbing the hit and stock earnings go

down

so the big risk then comes down to

demand destruction how much inflation

can we bear how much can we actually

increase prices without destroying

demand now we're going to talk about

demand destruction we'll also talk about

recessionary concerns but first we've

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alright so let's talk about demand

destruction and lead times lead times

are really actually in my opinion a

great opportunity to see whether or not

we're experiencing

demand destruction now the lead times

for tesla vehicles could potentially be

a supply like a supply chain issue right

if there are supply chain issues then

lead times extend in fact legacy

automakers are having so many issues

with supply chains that the lead times

are so long for certain vehicles that

they're even cancelling orders on

customers because they just can't

deliver but as long as tesla's

deliveries continue to grow

and wait times continue to grow then we

have a sign that tesla is managing

supply chain issues while at the same

time demand is actually increasing

despite higher prices

so lead times on tesla vehicles are

really critical to look at and what i've

done is i've put together a list of the

current lead times as of here at the

time of the filming this march 31st for

tesla vehicles in america and you can

see here that the bare minimum amount of

time that you're going to wait for a

tesla is two months so if you want to

buy a tesla today unless you buy it used

or out of some form of existing

inventory that somebody canceled and you

got lucky you're going to have to wait

at least two months for a tesla and that

would be a tesla model s plaid if you

wanted the model y performance edition

which is one of my favorite vehicles

you'll probably wait somewhere between

two to three months if you want to model

x you could be waiting anywhere from

four to 12 months though most teslas

like the model threes and the model s's

have a weight of about three to four

months if we start seeing these wait

times collapse and we get all of these

vehicles down to take delivery in as

little as one to two weeks that could

potentially be a red flag that we're

starting to see demand destruction

especially as tesla is scaling to more

factories we want to see these lead

times up so that way tesla can produce

more factories to try to deliver the

demand that is there and proves that

tesla can go from delivering 500 000

vehicles a year to a million vehicles a

year to 2 billion vehicles a year and

hopefully beyond while still maintaining

high demand that's the key and for in

order for tesla to ever get to

delivering 10 million vehicles a year we

cannot see demand fall off a cliff once

we pass say 2 million vehicles a year

that would be a big long-term problem

for tesla so obviously the risks here

big

if tesla misses growth well this stock

could absolutely collapse so paying

attention to lead times and what the

consumer is doing is absolutely critical

so far though tesla seems to be killing

it now we do also have to consider a

fourth thing and that is

recessionary risks and then circling

back to consumers again because what is

a recession but a reduction in consumers

buying stuff that is what a recession is

a reduction in overall gdp for a country

gross domestic product which is the sum

of services and products and spending

so some believe that a recession has

become inevitable and now others say

that honestly they'd rather invest

whether a recession comes or not for the

long term into great companies and build

their positions during price drops and

specifically are targeting investments

into companies that could weather a

recession that is weathering a recession

would mean not going bankrupt and deal

with inflationary pressures and we've

already talked about how tesla deals

with inflationary pressure as well so

the question is can tesla weather a

recession so the big bottom line of that

would be

probably they can weather a recession

but how much stalling or how much of a

delay would we put into that tesla

growth story as people potentially

cancel their purchases for vehicles i

don't know would we see lead times go to

zero potentially for teslas because

during a recession maybe individuals

would be less inclined to purchase new

cars unless of course this ends up being

if we do have a recession a recession of

the poor that is inflation reduces the

spending power of poorer individuals who

potentially aren't buying teslas anyway

whereas middle to upper middle class and

of course upper-class individuals

continue to buy tesla's because they can

and the recession and inflation and

pressures aren't really affecting them

as much

tbd the average investor or rather i

should say the average purchaser of a

tesla vehicle now is somewhere between

25 and 45 years old tends to be male and

tends to be of middle and middle and

upper class of course upper class as

well so

clearly tesla could be an opportunity

for a flight to safety during a

recession but that only goes as far as

valuations actually stay up if we see

compression in multiples which you

generally see across the entire stock

market a recession won't be good for

stocks but in the long run tesla's very

likely to weather any kind of recession

the big question though is will

consumers come back to tesla and this is

where you kind of don't want to look at

the media if you want to be a tesla bull

because what you'll get are slams from

consumer reports about tesla's autopilot

being trick-able or their preference for

fords over teslas you'll see that motor

trends awarded the lucid electric

vehicle the car of the year award over

tesla's and many complain about

potential quality issues with teslas

like panel gaps and teslas though there

really has been a lot of improvement in

this area time magazine also just named

one of the 100 most influential

companies and actually left elon musk

and tesla

out of that

biden has a hard time mentioning tesla

and many elon musk you know watchers or

people who pay attention to elon musk

say he's just too erratic of a leader to

actually scale tesla to the levels it

needs to scale to and of course others

say tesla has no chance of being a good

investment because there's just too much

competition and too much other choice

after all tesla only has the model s the

model 3

the model x and the model y now the

cyber truck will come out probably in

2024 but it's not great when you've got

four models and 70 new ev models are

going to be launched by others just this

year in fact ram jeep chrysler fiat

dodge alfa romeo maserati alone these

companies alone expect to have 75 ev

models by 2030 and that doesn't even

include gm toyota daimler volkswagen bmw

neo xping and lucid altogether likely

adding another 100 to 200 ev models

that's a big risk for tesla what if

tesla ends up being a niche product a

recession happens and then there's a

cool new car on the block that 25 to 45

year old dudes bring their attention to

and they prefer that over tesla and

tesla ends up being a fad well in that

event tesla stock will crash absolutely

horribly what tesla really needs to do

is figure out how can it attract more

ladies and more of the older generation

so we can really get to that

toyota-style adoption of 9 to 10 million

vehicles a year that's really what we

want to see long term for tesla if not

even more now a fifth thing that you

have to consider when it comes to tesla

is legal risks there's the potential

that tesla's going to get slapped with

another 260 to 280 million sec fine that

could definitely hit the stock a bit

it's gonna rob about two percent of

ebitda uh if courts ultimately

determined that elon musk violated his

agreement to have his his tweets on

twitter reviewed before posting them or

the potential that tesla's water rights

are restricted in berlin limiting their

potential of expanding their facility or

potential legal risks related to full

self-driving you have a lot of risk here

which brings up risk number six tech

risk what if full self-driving isn't

achieved

at full levels as envisioned now or

potentially priced in now

by tesla

what if nvidia can partner with lucid

and deliver a better product what if

apple can deliver a better product what

if gm and cruz can deliver a better

product so far tesla has the most

millions of miles driven with using any

form of self-driving technology because

humans that is consumers can actually

contribute to the development of full

self-driving by using the self-driving

technology in tesla's other vehicle

companies aren't taking advantage of

this data or they're using only their

own hired and internal drivers this is a

big downside risk for those companies

and a big upside a moat for tesla

so unless somebody's able to come out of

the secret and show some incredible

self-driving technology tesla seems to

be substantially in the lead here now

you do have that risk that elon's too

reliant on this non-lidar technology bob

brett winton over at arc research

actually says this is a good thing

because you don't need to over kill the

technology in the tesla the less parts

you have the lower vehicles can be

priced the more vehicles you can sell

and the higher margins can be at tesla

remember elon musk is obsessed with

margins and strives for a 30 gross

margin which is revenue minus vehicle

costs

that's your gross margin he's trying to

bring 30

to gross margin and he does this by

trying to minimize parts in fact his

famous saying is the best part is no

part but of course this has created

frustrations for some consumers and

remember everything ultimately comes

back to the consumer so for example on

the new yolk steering wheel there is no

sensor for the horn under the airbag in

the middle of the wheel now you can put

your palm on the right side of the yoke

but this is unintuitive and usually in

an emergency

this could be quite dangerous if

somebody in an emergency actually needed

to honk to try to avoid an emergency

because they'd likely react to the level

of their intuition rather than their

level of expectation right in an

emergency as they say you generally fall

to the level of your training you don't

rise to the level of your expectation

however since posting my video elon musk

has on twitter stated that it's my

review video on my tesla model s plaid

elon musk has come out and say and has

stated that hey we are now going to add

a sensor under the steering wheel airbag

so that way you can honk

by pushing the middle of the yoke and

the reason i bring this up here is not

so much that it really matters that the

sensor is under the horn or not it's

just that at some point

consumers

might revolt

someone like elon musk regularly wanting

to strip features or sensors or things

that elon musk might deem are not

necessary but what if consumers want

those features and then leave tesla

that's a risk and that's a risk that

we've got to pay attention to consumers

for think about it elon musk so far has

really standardized the entire interior

lineup of all the vehicles of the s the

three the x and the y the interior looks

almost exactly the same minus the fact

that one has an additional screen above

the wheel and the

smaller models do not

but you also get some pretty cool

features that you just don't have in

other cars like horns that could play

music romance mode uh powerful

infotainment system and of course seat

coolers which i know other cars have

that but i have to say because i love it

it's kind of cool i like that in my test

a lot less

now all of this of course extends to

production as well elon musk's obsession

with minimizing parts and using massive

giga presses for example that

consolidates sometimes 150 parts and do

a single rear casting for a vehicle

reducing the need for dozens of robots

and coming up with their own alloys to

be able to use this kind of technology

without their castings crumpling after

their their molding well now you have to

see these things create not only a huge

moat for tesla and their ability to

expand but the value here really comes

when elon musk and tesla start copy and

pasting this kind of model to

gigafactories around the world tesla is

aiming for potentially as many as 10

terra factories making millions of

vehicles annually with these cost-saving

strategies and then delivering vehicles

not just in every continent but then

locally within as many countries as

possible but of course again all of the

scaling only matters if consumers are

willing to buy so again watch what the

consumers are doing watch what's

happening with lead times and deliveries

it's probably the most important aspect

of tesla's stock valuation it is growth

so to sell cars like toyota does you

need everyone wanting tesla's not just

young dudes then of course there's the

potential that tesla fails to scale some

other aspects of their business like

solar but this could probably be a

smaller revenue aspect and really i

don't assign a lot of value to scaling

the solar business there's probably more

of a risk that tesla fails to scale

their batteries and their battery

business because batteries obviously are

the input for vehicles electric vehicles

and the home battery growth division

which is very important because home

batteries sell for a very high margin

it's a very high margin business and you

want to be in high margin businesses

cars with high margin batteries with

high margin inverters which tesla now

does in-house with high margin are

critical now right now we also have

hopium that we're going to get the cyber

truck the semi-truck maybe a tesla robot

but hype is not something that i like to

value into companies so for me i'm going

to set a lot of these hopes to zero and

i'm going to call those a margin of

safety now with all of this said all

these risks and concerns to consider

it's important to say that what you're

about to see is not a guarantee it's my

version and my expectation of what i

believe tesla's returns might look like

for the coming four to five years now i

like to be very very conservative with

my estimates because i do not want to

invest in a stock expecting perfection i

want to expect and price in that some

things are just not going to work out

the way you think

but first a message from teslacon texas

now we have a quick message from someone

very special who's doing amazing things

for the tesla community and has to do

with a big ol party the day after the

cyber rodeo coming up matthew tell us

about this big event coming up in austin

texas hey kevin so the tesla owners club

of austin is throwing a multi-day fan

gathering called teslacon texas and it's

culminating on april 8th with our main

event and we're gonna have a ton of

tesla youtubers speaking and that's

gonna be super fun that's right in fact

myself galley from hyperchange ross

gerber will all be there on the 8th

super excited where can people go to

learn more about this big event coming

up yeah jump over to teslacontext.com

so we only have a few tickets left it's

about 85 sold out so we want you to get

involved and all profits are going to an

amazing charity that supports the

homeless community here in austin it's

called the community first village look

at that tesla gathering ross galley

kevin maybe some tesla shots who knows

come meet fellow tesla bulls come to the

event and check it out i want to be very

clear as well this is not sponsored i am

going to the event for free but i'm not

paid to pitch this event i just want to

support the tesla community anything

else that people need to know matthew

kevin we have you slotted in to speak

about your tesla evaluation at our event

and then

moderate a panel of the balls versus the

hyper bowls because we're all balls but

some of us are even more in the

ludicrous mode than others so we want

you to moderate that it's going to be a

blast i thank you so much for the

opportunity i can't wait until april 8th

okay folks here is my bull case for

tesla 2025

with a revenue per vehicle uh now

increased to about 45 000 per vehicle by

2025. everything in pink is going to be

something that i've changed since i've

last done one of these valuation updates

uh with a revenue per vehicle about 45

000 per vehicle i expect that tesla

maintaining that thirty percent margin

will be able to bring somewhere around

uh 32 million dollars down to profit if

we take out in my opinion a conservative

22 percent tax rate then we should end

up with a net income of around 25

billion dollars sorry if i said

millionaire billion uh and with

currently shares outstanding around

1.135 billion that would bring us to

earnings per share of about 22. now i

did lower our operating expenses from 15

to 14 and i did maintain actually the

expense margin at 70

even though companies like barclays are

actually a little bit more bearish here

barclays is projecting

that there is a risk to tesla's margin

the tesla's margin may actually fall in

the coming years here in 2022

being at about 27.1 percent without

vehicle credits that margin could

actually fall in 23 4 and 5 to 26.3 24.7

and 22.6

this would be disastrous for the stock

honestly we don't even have to go into

the bull case and say oh let's lower

this we'll take a look at that for our

2025 bear case but this is where tesla

will absolutely collapse if this margin

starts falling so that is very very

dangerous

now there's a likelihood that shares

outstanding will increase by the time

2025 rolls around

especially since we've got the stock

dividend coming up which is a version of

a tesla stock split that does nothing

though for fundamental analysis so we're

not really going to spend the time to

talk about that in this video you'd

watch my other video on the tesla stock

dividend split but anyway if we take a

price today of tesla let's say 1050

this would put our forward earnings

price to earnings ratio at about 47.79

and if we're delivering about 4.8

million vehicles and we're still

expecting that high consumer adoption

for teslas kind of like going back to

this s-curve chart over here my

expectation is tesla should be able to

maintain a forward p e of roughly

100 until we get to the upper part of

this curve where growth really starts

slowing which i wouldn't expect to start

seeing until 9 10 or 11 million vehicles

being delivered again assuming those

consumers stay very very strong and in

that sort of example

using a 100 pe by 2025 we would arrive

at about a valuation of tesla stock at

around two thousand two hundred dollars

which would represent a double in about

four years if you invested today at

eleven hundred dollars you'd be looking

at a return of about 19 i'm sorry 18.97

over four years now if you're able to

buy tesla at one thousand dollars and

this case scenario ends up coming true

you can see your return goes up

substantially i recently bought uh into

tesla at about a twenty percent 20 to 25

discount from when i sold my tesla stock

i have all my tesla shares back

and they actually have plenty more

shares of other stocks even now because

i was able to get a nice discount on the

stock recently and i got back into tesla

probably an average about 750 dollars in

this case my return actually now exceeds

a 30 percent

if this uh scenario ends up coming true

which is really wonderful uh for

basically if you don't know if you're

not from around here you're not familiar

what i did is i sold my tesla shares at

roughly an average of 9.65 to 970

because i sold over a few a few

different periods of time and then i

re-bought those again with an average of

about 750. now i know some folks say oh

but what about tax implications but

don't worry i've already considered all

of that and the strategies that i pulled

off are going to be absolutely

phenomenal to make sure i minimize my

tax liability uh for that sort of move

but again this video isn't about me it's

about our projections here so if i jump

on over to a bear case scenario the bear

case scenario i'm actually going to keep

the vehicle price a little bit higher at

48 000 but what we're going to do is

we're going to drop the number of

vehicles substantially here we're only

going to get 3.3 out this is going to be

a little bit problematic in addition to

dropping margin to kind of what barclays

is looking at something like 25

which would be quite bad uh for tesla

and uh we'll see here that with a 22 tax

rate using the same formula we'd only be

at eps of about 10.67 by 2025 which

means at the end of 2025 we might only

be at 1067

which seems remarkable

and bad

because that would mean if you bought

1100 you'd actually be negative if you

bought at 750 you'd still have a 9.21

return but if you bought at anything

around a thousand dollars you'd really

only be returning about one point six

four percent this is of course a base a

bear case scenario so we got a bull

scenario bear scenario and then we could

do

a 20 30 bowl scenario now this is sort

of just a ramp chart that i've got

written down here and this is really

expecting that we could get somewhere to

16 million vehicles this is this would

be very remarkable i i don't i don't

know if tesla can drive this sort of

consumer demand but let's say we can in

the longer run we go to about 45 000

average per vehicle uh including any

kind of full self-driving revenue in

this sheet i do end up including about

20 percent of revenue coming from energy

services or vehicle revenue coming from

energy and this is because i expect a

lot more adoption of batteries

or or we'll see revenue from insurance

here and we'll see a lot of other ways

that tesla might be able to make money

uh and so we'll throw some of these in

here and some what we think are

reasonable expense margins

if we come to the bottom over here we

could potentially in 2030 with a now p e

ratio of only about 45 see tesla stock

sitting around 3 292 dollars which is

still remarkable because if you bought

today at a thousand bucks let's say you

would be expecting a return of about 16

per year for eight years which is really

actually quite incredible so uh but i i

honestly don't like going out to 2030

because it's just so blurry we actually

don't know what the take rate on

services or energy or insurance or

whatever will end up being how semis

will play out in that so i'd rather be

somewhere here between the bear and the

bull case scenario and at least for me

personally buying it at 750 is such a

beautiful steel that if if really if i

could just buy tesla again uh for for

any price i'd probably want to be adding

to tesla under 900 dollars because if i

could go under 900 i'm still getting

about a 4.35 return on the base case

scenario if i can get it under 900

and we end up achieving a bull case

scenario i'm sitting somewhere around a

25

return over for each year over four

years which is incredible so those are

my thoughts on tesla thank you so much

for watching and folks we'll see the

next one and check out the conference

coming up i'll be there see you bye