$5,000 Stimulus Checks / DOGE Refund

hey in this video I'd like to talk about

this potential $5,000 Doge dividend and

how it compares to previous stimulus

checks so the first thing that you want

to remember is that Elon Musk did just

respond to this potential proposed Doge

dividend tax refund or stimulus check

whatever you want to call it uh and he

said he's going to talk to the president

about this potential for a $5,000 check

to go to taxpaying American households

now this would be a little bit different

than the co stimulus checks and that Co

stimulus checks uh were provided on a

per person basis remember we had

stimulus check number one that was

$1,200 in payments plus500 per child

cost about $271 billion stimulus check

number two which cost 600 uh or gave

$600 per person per adult and $600 per

child which cost about $141 billion and

then you had stimulus check number three

which cost $1,400 or gave $1,400 per

adult and $1,400 per child costing $401

billion this check would be considered

uh as being sent to each taxpaying

household and it's unclear exactly how

they'll calculate what qualifies as a

taxpaying household uh so you'll

probably see somewhere between 79 to 90

million households eligible if something

like this were to happen it would

probably cost around 350 to $500 billion

now a lot of folks are arguing that hey

this is fine you're really just

returning some of the money that doge is

saving saving to taxpayers see some

people look at this and say hey I don't

want the check just pay down the

nation's debt other people are like no

man yeah give the dividend to the

Americans who voted for this you know

these these cuts to uh bureaucratic

spending and uh what whatever waste

potentially Elon can find great give it

back to Americans either pay down the

debt or send some back or just cut taxes

so the argument here with a $5,000

potential refund is that it would only

be about 20% of what do is planning on

saving the department of governmental

efficiency uh and the rest could then go

to lowering taxes or paying down the

debt so on one hand people argue hey you

know only some of it is going back to

you in the form of a tax refund which

could be stimulative of course that

drives inflation concerns yesterday I

talked about those inflation concerns so

watch my yesterday's video if you want

to see my thoughts on what would happen

with inflation but so far you have

another cohort that's responding and

saying look Doge right now has claimed

that they're saving $55 billion the

problem with that is they've only Prov

Ed receipts for about $16 billion in

savings now I personally think that's

still a pretty good start 16.6 billion

time 12 if you annualize it is about

$200 billion of savings for the entire

year that though is a far cry from uh

even paying for these $5,000 refund

checks and then the question is are they

cutting linearly in other words can they

continue to cut 16 to $50 billion a

month or are they cutting the lwh

hanging fruit now they save 16.6 billion

and all of a sudden we look and go okay

I mean even if they save $40 billion by

the end of the year that's a fraction of

our government's $4 trillion in

expenditures in fact it works out to

just 1.6 or sorry one 1% even 1% if they

get to $40 billion so and again that's

only 10% of the cost of these potential

$5,000 checks so you really have some

financing problems uh that are probably

going to brew up and come up with

Congress but of course Congress right

now is focused on the Trump tax plan

which what's fascinating here is

actually enables you to raise the debt

rather than pay down the debt see Trump

right now is encouraging a $4.5

trillion tax cut plan to be passed in

the House of Representatives this

contrasts with the Senate's desire to

sort of do a smaller funding bill now

Kick the Can down the road do a little

bit of immigration Kick the Can down the

road on a bigger Bill Trump really wants

the big beautiful bill because gives him

his tax cuts that he's trying to provide

to Americans I think a lot of Americans

voted for tax cuts but let's think about

the numbers of this tax bill for a

moment the larger bill would increase

the debt sealing of America or America's

ability to borrow by $4 trillion it

would enable about 2 trillion in

spending cuts and about $4.5 trillion

dollar in tax cuts so if we do the math

on that if we do $4.5 trillion in

spending or in tax cuts that mean that

means the government is receiving $4.5

trillion do in less money over let's say

a 10-year period right if we add to that

$2 trillion of spending cuts we're still

in the hole by $2.5 trillion so so far

the math on the big beautiful Bill

actually increases our debt by $25

trillion doar and that's why they're

looping in an increase of the debt

ceiling by $4 trillion because people

think that we're just going to have

these government shutdown debates over

and over and over again unless we just

have a big extension of the Deb ceiling

and because Republicans have control

right now they feel maybe they can push

through this extension of the debt

ceiling and then they don't have to

worry about a fight after midterms where

it might be harder to pass that Deb

ceiling again so so far the numbers that

we're seeing don't really help us

justify actually being able to get that

$55,000 Doge dividend per household

because again the numbers that doge is

claiming it saved on its website $55

billion it's also again that's about 12

133% of what it would cost to do a

$5,000 Doge you know

dividend uh if we did $55 billion though

uh and you gave that to households if

they indeed did save 55 billion and you

just gave all of it to households well

that'd be nice that'd probably be

somewhere around $800 per household

right but then again there are disputes

over did they actually save that much so

far the Doge website only lists that

they saved $16.6 billion they have a

banner that says we've saved 55 here are

all the receipts and then when you add

up the receipts it's like 16.6 billion

and then there's also been this drama

and debate over what's going on with

this 8 million or8 billion cut that's

because one contract was entered into a

government system as being worth 8

billion people say that contract would

have never cost that much uh and it was

later revised to $8 million but Doge

claimed that they cut the contract and

they're using reference to the original

$8 billion number that showed up so

there's a big debate about that uh and

that might be why there's some receipts

missing but still 15 or 55 claimed

savings to 16 that we have accounted for

at this point leav some transparency

left to come but even if they cut the

full 55 it's not enough to really get

more than an $800 household check even

if they gave 100% of those savings back

to Americans and so far the big

beautiful Bill probably is going to end

up increasing the debt rather than and

reducing the debt so while there is a

lot of excitement and enthusiasm and I'm

excited enthusiastic about this as well

I'd love to see more government waste

cut we do get some concerns that are we

cutting in the right places for example

we just heard that over the weekend 400

probationary workers at the FAA were

just fired now fortunately they were not

in air traffic control positions or

Aviation safety inspection roles but

they were FAA workers and frankly point

of the entire FAA has to do with

Aviation and safety so it's kind of

curious exactly where they came from but

but anyway TBD this comes at the same

time that Donald Trump is planning

potentially on announcing uh 25% tariffs

on certain cars Pharmaceuticals and

Ships coming April 2nd but I don't think

people really believe that those tariffs

are coming most of the time I just see

the market buying the dip on the idea

that this tariff drama is going on uh

and uh it kind of reminds me of 2018

where it was logical and it made sense

to buy the dip on tariff drama so it it

just gives you like an excuse to find a

sale mostly because there just really

don't seem to be these major negative

catalysts in the market right now or the

economy things are just decent right now

they're pretty good that doesn't mean

there can't be a big Black Swan that

causes a big oopsy doopsy Poopsy

whoopsies but it is fascinating so when

we put all of this together what are the

odds right now of getting some kind of

Doge dividend well

I would say it's possible to get some

form of Doge dividend probably closer to

the end of the year I think it might be

something that actually gets included in

the big beautiful Bill see if we're

going to raise the debt ceiling by $4

trillion anyway some people argue that

you could do a $2.5 trillion do tax cut

plan and throw a doge refund in there

and even though you're not cutting that

full $500 billion or whatever it would

cost to do Doge divid

it might get you votes for midterms so

maybe those refunds go out around April

of

2026 right before midterms and of course

they're branded with you know the Trump

Administration signature so it'll be

really interesting to see what ends up

happening but uh we we've seen stimulus

checks purposefully timed around

elections many times before even Newsome

did that uh just weeks before uh a you

know the recall election sending

stimulus to those making over 500 or

making up to $500,000 which was

remarkable but and that was called the

uh inflation relief stimulus check you

could take a look at that one in

California that uh probably ended up

causing quite a bit of inflation uh

anyway uh this is the latest that we

have on the Doge dividend uh the Donald

Trump tax plan we have a little bit of

information that we got out of uh

mostly some bickering about zalinski in

terms of trump and some other news

that's going on like Trump is apparently

calling zinski a dictator and an okay

comedian but zalinski is countering and

saying that Trump lives in a

disinformation bubble that Russia is

winning the disinformation war and

Donald Trump argues back that zalinsky

has been at the negotiating for table

for three years and nothing has happened

so he shouldn't blame Donald Trump for

trying to negotiate with Russia uh in

Saudi Arabia and even though Ukraine

wasn't initially invited now they're

invited but now Ukraine says they don't

want to go because they don't want to

give legitimacy to the event a lot of

drama excuse me so with that

said gotten overtaken here by the

sneezes sorry uh with that said uh it's

also possibly worth your time watching

the Trump and musk Hannity interview it

is kind of interesting seeing the

president get interviewed with Elon Musk

uh you know Donald Trump calls Elon Musk

a brilliant man Elon Musk says Trump is

a good man that he's never seen him do

anything cruel or or bad in that Elon

Musk ultimately has visions of wanting

to die on Mars just not on impact

ideally

uh and uh Donald Trump says that musk is

helping him actually make sure that

executive orders get implemented and

he's right executive orders can get

issued but implementation often Fades

and there's often very little followup

that these executive orders are actually

getting implemented and Elon say or

Donald Trump says that Elon is there to

help him sort of enforce that these

executive orders are happening so I I

think as long as we can continue to get

more transparency the trend is in the

right direction of saving money but uh

it'll be really interesting to see how

everything develops uh in the way of

actually creating real tangible savings

that would be large enough to help pay

down the debt uh especially since now

we're talking about increasing the death

ceiling rather than decreasing death

cealing anyway there's the latest for

you thank so much for watching and we'll

see you in the next one goodbye good

luck why not advertise these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin paffrath there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take