ah crap... this could be why the market tanked

oh fed might give us a good old rugging

tomorrow let's see how they shape the

minutes and let's talk preview in terms

of not only what we're expecting with

data tomorrow big deal T actually

today's Tuesday January 2nd January 3rd

which is a Wednesday is the day we get

our fomc minutes and we get our jolts

data let's get through what we're paying

attention to uh first I think what's

going to be very important in the

minutes just straight to the bottom line

here is some versus several okay quotes

around some versus several members

discussing the potential for

overtightening or rate Cuts in my

opinion that's going to be the biggest

thing that I'm looking for in the

minutes I already know all the old crap

de it depending if inflation goes back

up we'll do this if things get worse

we'll do this I want to know why uh or

really first how many people ideally we

figured that out talked about rate Cuts

because if they say one person brought

up rate Cuts that's lame if they don't

even mention rate Cuts possible also

kind of lame it depends see the minutes

can be shaped by the FED after the fact

notice minutes do not equal transcript

they're actually another messaging tool

so what we're getting is really a

catered and edited version of the minuts

they're what they want us to feel and

react with so we don't don't get

everything they're talking about so if

they don't include anything about rate

Cuts or even the mention of cuts then

they're really trying to walk back the

fact that jome pow told us some of the

members in their commentary suggested

there could be raid Cuts in 2024 okay we

don't want to see them walk that back we

want to see them reiterate that ideally

they say something like several members

discuss the potential of overtightening

or Cuts uh but I'll take I'll settle for

some okay that's number one number two

I'd like to know why why what are they

seeing are they seeing a recession

Brewing well much like we do with course

members every single day I am looking

for evidence of a recession one of the

things that we decided to do this

morning just to give you a quick little

sample of our course member live streams

uh mostly just because we're still

processing Gold Course emails this is

nuts okay it is nuts how many emails

we're getting at staff ATM kevin.com

asking for coupons into the gold course

with the brand new content we made uh

here in Q4 uh well I guess Q4 was

actually last year already how weird is

that but a few weeks ago anyway look at

this okay we found this this morning oh

I clicked the wrong button we found this

this morning check this out this is from

paychecks the paychecks earnings call

our small business employment watch

continues to show moderation in both

jobs growth and wage inflation which is

indicative of a stable macro environment

and that the actions of the FED are

having their desired impact Jerome

Powell reads this stuff okay him and his

office they interview companies like

this payroll companies and this is what

they're saying they're like hey it's

it's working okay okay okay you you done

enough then they say well we haven't

seen any normal signs of our of

recession in our data no recession in

the data but then again we know jobs

data can lag so we're trying to get

sentiments right they say we started to

see some softening in seasonal hiring in

the quarter particularly in the large

client segments including our HR

Outsourcing many of which typically add

seasonal employees this time of year

uhoh bing bing bing bing bing bing bing

alarm Bells going off over here this is

how jobs weakness begins I suspect the

federal reserve's minutes are going to

start warning that we are heading

towards jobs weakness the problem with

jobs and and I I have been saying this

for uh quite frankly what feels like

roughly 2 years now I've been saying

look jobs data lags but there are

leading signs the leading signs are just

not that easy and clear to see this is

one of them weakness in seasonal hiring

to the point where paychecks a payroll

processor is saying yeah we're seeing HR

companies not do their usual usual

seasonal hiring because

there's just much less of a need for

those workers that is a red flag not

only that but they also mention over

here they suggest we're not seeing

anything on our data that would say mass

downsizings or reduction that's not what

we're seeing you are seeing right sizing

yes that's normal in an economically

tightening environment it is normal to

see quote right sizing when would you

actually see Mass layoffs well you would

see Mass layoffs when you're in the

recession so but we already know we're

not in the recession we're worried about

going into the recession and so that cut

in seasonal hiring is going to be an

example of something that the Federal

Reserve is going to look at and

go yeah yeah we we we need to be careful

about this so that's what I'm looking

for in the minutes now we also have to

talk jolts that's pretty important as

well okay and and and yes I'm going to

go to the podcast after this video posts

you might be watching this and we might

be live in the podcast or the podcast

may have just posted you're welcome to

come join us over there the meet Kevin

podcast it's link down below uh still

haven't had a chance to change the

pricing on the gold course I did go fly

today uh to visit some of our projects

that we've got going on and make sure

that I'm leading and educating the team

in every way I can for house Haack but

let's focus on jolts right here and of

course we want the FED to focus on this

we want the FED to be aware which I

think they are that they kind of won on

inflation they're not going to say that

because if they say that they could

actually reintroduce that sort of

inflationary problem right but look at

that multivariant core remember how I

was talking about a couple weeks to go

hey we're going to have a little bit of

a delay because of the holidays and

getting that multivariant core inflation

out this morning in the market open live

stream what do we do we went through the

decm uh the decm of that multivariant

core and what did we see well take a

look at it take out everything except

Services X housing come on man we're

we're so low we're at.

17% consider that from for moment. 17% *

12 to annualize it we're literally at

2.04% inflation annualized so that's

literally taking that number right here

and multiplying by 12 the November 20

that's not even December you know the

December CPI numbers for example are

coming out next week and multivariant

core is based on pce so you're going to

get this data late uh but anyway that

number right there annualized time 12 is

2.04% so let's be real the inflation

part is basically done where we sit now

is did we screw up the jobs Market to

get here and we don't know that until

hindsight the only way we don't go into

a recession is if we prevent massive

damage to the jobs Market remember how

this earnings call right here says we

are not seeing mass downsizings or

reductions that's because that doesn't

happen going into a recession that

happens when you're like Leman Brothers

hits the fan goes BK bunch of companies

go BK and all of a sudden everybody's

like oh God everything's hit in the fan

fire everyone you do not want to go

there really bad really bad fortunately

in my companies we're hiring uh we're

we've by the way check your email we've

already been responding to some emails

uh of folks who have hit us up for a

software engineering job I posted about

that on Twitter you could see some

details over there including the

$250,000 pay offer as well as some of

the other details uh but just email us

your resume at jobs mein.com it is an

in-person position for full stack Dev uh

and more for uh fintech but anyway uh so

this is really interesting this is

massively interesting but not only is

this massively interesting jolts numbers

jolts numbers come out at uh 7: a.m.

tomorrow morning so I will be live on

the market open Live channel to cover

that the jolts numbers are expected to

come in at 8.82 one million that's

actually slightly warmer than the 8.73 3

I think that number could come in soft

again I just pray we don't get a number

under like eight because if we get a

number under eight people are going to

be like oh my God we might actually be

walking into a recession way sooner than

we thought because that's going to

quickly get to like 6 and then we're one

to one and then it's going to go down to

four and and then all of a sudden we

have more people looking for work than

we have job

openings I I I don't know I hope not I

pray not that would be bad if you're

short you want that number to come in

way low now you don't really want the

number to come in really hot either

though like you don't want this to go

back to 9.5 million because that could

lead the FED to wonder okay does this

mean we have to keep rates higher for

longer it goes back to higher for longer

so we'll get jolts at 7: a.m. then we're

going to get the fomc's minutes at 11

a.m. so 700 a.m. for jolts uh 11:00 a.m.

for fomc minutes these are all

California times and we'll also get ISM

Institute for supply side management

prices paid we'll get those at 7:00 a.m.

as well looking for a 49.5 on those

which is slightly in contraction when

we're under 50 we're slightly in

contraction manuf ring is expecting to

come in for the 14th month in a row low

under 50 47.1 we'll see if that ends up

coming in a low as well uh so we'll pay

attention to this ADP is the next day

looking for 121 on that uh and then of

course we'll get non-farm payrolls on

Friday I'll be covering all of this live

uh of 170,000 is the expectation I'm

worried that these numbers are going to

come in

soft and as much as I worry about those

numbers coming in soft I am also heavily

focused on those minutes because I want

to see a Fed not the usual crap I want

to see a Fed that is aware about the

damage they could cause in employment

because that will make what is been a

resilient economy very fragile that's

what kills the economy is people losing

their jobs you ever wonder why and we've

touched on this before but I really want

you to think about this you know I teach

real estate okay we got the zero to

millionaire real estate course is

phenomenal you ever wonder why housing

is so expensive in certain

areas huh well it has to do with jobs

where are theob jobs and people's

willingness to live in an area because

they're getting paid and compensated to

live in that area but not only that I

want you to consider this okay when it

comes to single family home Investments

look at this Bank of America ran a piece

right here and we posted this on ehck so

you could see all this research for free

on ec.com but look at this ec.com what

did we post Bank of America say that

Millennials are past Peak apartment

renting age and the demographic bulge is

shifting towards single family renting

in suburban and spacious lifestyle

environments that single family

dwellings offer and that most of the

limited Supply is not in apartment

buildings but rather in single family

homes which I obviously wrote over here

H this is frankly uh bullish for house

hack see our latest house hack videos

here but anyway look at this research

study this on eack there's some really

good stuff on eack by the way I talked

about oil today uh talked a little bit

about uh how weird it was that oil

dropped also talked Bank term funding

program this is a big deal as well so

you can get a preview of some of the

items here uh but look let's just be

very clear the jobs jobs jobs is what

this is all about and with inflation

basically at 2% Services X

housing I don't know how you can

possibly argue that the FED should not

be prioritizing jobs which means rate

Cuts baby let's get a bullish fed

tomorrow or should I call it a doish Fed

anyway thanks so much for watching got a

coffee to drink and a podcast to get to

we'll see you the next one bye why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we we'll try a little advertising

and see how it Go congratulations man

you have done so much people love you

people look up to you Kevin P there

financial analyst and YouTuber meet

Kevin always great to get your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser real estate broker and

becoming a stock broker this video is

neither personalized Financial advice

nor real estate advice for you it is not

tax legal or otherwise personalized

advice tailored to you this is video

provides generalized perspective

information and commentary any

thirdparty content I show should not be

deemed endorsed by me this video is not

and shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purpose

of evaluating a security or investment

decision any links or promoted products

are either paid affiliations or products

or Services which we may benefit from I

personally operate and actively managed

ETF and hold long positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuers other

than house act nor am I presently acting

as a market maker

okay