The Psychology of Market Cycles.

hey everyone meet kevin here i was

hoping i would not see the day that i

had to make this video for course

members for at least

10 years unfortunately the time may be

now

it is once again time to talk about the

macro economic cycle the business cycle

the real estate cycle and folks

this is how we are going to connect the

psychology of money the psychology of

buying the dip the broken cell button to

macro economic cycles so that way you

graduate to the next level of

understanding personal finance and

building your wealth it is so critical

to understand market cycles

and this video is not designed to

encourage you to

change your strategies to buy the dip or

to sell this video is designed to

show you how to prepare

for changing market cycles and

to provide a reason for the confusion

that can happen at different points in

the cycle

but first i want you to know

that the very first thing

that i did when i became a real estate

agent during the last crash

was i created a graphic

for this

right here

this is my graphic

the real estate cycle

and while looking back there's so much

more detail i could throw in this

there's so much more i could do i want

to pay homage to the fact that when i

entered in the bottom of the market

dealing with the disasters of short

sales and foreclosures and seeing the

pain of excess debt which is a problem

that we have in our country right now i

created this and i actually printed it

out uh and i had a picture frame

with the real estate cycle this on it on

uh on a canvas so it looked like a piece

of art and i would bring it with me when

i was talking to buyers or sellers and i

would explain to them where i believed

we were in the market cycle and why i

would use this as a tool for talking

about the fears of the double dip

recession uh which

or the shadow inventory of foreclosures

that were coming up the same thing that

i do on youtube now or in the programs

is the same thing that i used to do in

the coffee shop with clients which is

providing facts data and statistics to

back up my points rather than just

emotions which we have to talk about

emotions emotions are very very

important so let me give a quick

explanation of this

this is an oversimplified explanation of

the real estate cycle essentially the

real estate cycle

back in 2010 2011 2009 uh was was

clearly in in this area where we had

experienced declining price rent and a

new construction we clearly had had

noticed this and what i would do on a

daily basis is i would track inventory

numbers and what was fascinating was

housing inventory in the city that i

live in went from about

450 homes on the market which is a

massive amount normal market by the way

has about 200 homes on the market we

went from about 450 homes on the market

where somebody would come to me and say

hey i'm looking for a three bedroom two

bath and i'm this particular part of

town and all of a sudden i'm like okay

here's your list of 20 of them you know

we should probably narrow the list down

to the top five that look good based on

the pictures we don't have to go to 20

of them get overwhelmed right it was

crazy it was really really crazy times

because there was so much and people

were always wondering like oh kevin i'm

worried what if prices go down more it's

like well look at where we are in the

real estate cycle according to the real

estate cycle we pretty much are at the

bottom especially since what happened in

2010 actually more towards 2011 what

started happening we started seeing that

housing inventory number towards the end

of 2011 beginning in 2012 start rotating

down

fast we went from 450 homes to the

market to 300 homes on the market boom

like that

we actually ended up at the beginning of

2013 with just 80 homes on the market

which was insane we had this crazy crazy

uh shift in the market but we could

watch this happen week after week after

week for about a year and a half because

real estate market moves a little slower

and so we were clearly in the absorption

of excess supply phase where it's like

oh there's so much supply and all of a

sudden that's dwindling

and so when march and april of 2013 came

around we actually ended up seeing

prices jump 20 in the matter of two

months

but we saw that coming for a year and a

half because of this absorption of

excess supply right

okay good so supply started getting

absorbed we got into a tighter market uh

it became a lot easier to rent

properties out and then prices started

skyrocketing uh they they have increased

very well over the past uh probably well

i would say from 2011 to about 2019

prices uh increased quite normally and

substantially but we've gone into this

this more almost exponential phase

let me use a little bit of a better

graphic than using uh just a circle here

we've kind of done

a little bit of this with pricing where

we hit our bottom here

in 2011

started rotating up this right here is

where you saw housing inventory go from

about that uh 450 number to uh you know

200 well 300 200 right and then all the

way down to 80. so we saw this it got so

low we got to this point where folks

were like oh my gosh how am i going to

make money as a real estate agent

there's nothing to sell

and what happened prices jumped

substantially about 20

and then we continued on real estate

market relatively did this but now since

the pandemic we've really done

this

uh and going back to the real estate

cycle usually when you get to this sort

of euphoric stage this this excessive

runaway stage

you tend to increase new construction as

much as possible to to produce more

homes for people where they want to live

because the prices are so high the

margins are so good this is why lennar

and kb homes are killing it and they're

producing more properties or

you know

building and planning new properties

like crazy to bring these to the market

the issue then

becomes twofold what happens towards the

top of the real estate market well as

the real estate market starts

potentially peaking interest rates tend

to go up

to to quell

excessive growth and when rates go up

especially mortgage rates

we know that real estate prices can come

down uh about 10x the interest rate

increase so for example if our market is

expanding at let's say ten percent per

year and interest rates go up point six

percent like they just did then uh we

would see a negative six percent

headwind to real estate prices but a

positive ten percent momentum movement

right uh of prices going up and so now

we're net four percent growth but that

can also end negative if all of a sudden

we're like oh prices aren't going up

that much oh it's getting a little it's

getting a little expensive to go

shopping again oh the stock market's

getting a little funky uh oh oh right

and all of a sudden euphoria can very

quickly turn into over supply and all it

takes

is a handful of investors who own a lot

of properties to start flooding the

market and it can happen very very

quickly with properties to start quickly

dampening demand for housing

and all that has to do with fear

psychology so we've got to talk about

that see

fear psychology applies to the stock

market as well

generally what we want to do is buy the

dip but we have to overlay cycles if we

look at the cycle the best times

obviously to buy the dip and i told my

clients this a lot although i would

always draw a line here i'm like you

know if you're gonna if you're gonna try

to time the market you don't need to be

perfect you don't need to be right down

here in the middle but ideally try to

buy the bottom half

and usually the bottom half is is uh

we we know when the bottom half is

happening because we start seeing

indicators decline at a less rapid pace

where we start rotating i think when

folks hear oh my gosh someone's trying

to time the macro economy the thought is

you're perfectly trying to get out at

the tippy top and perfectly trying to

get out of the bottom that's next

impossible right that's not going to

happen just like trying to predict what

earnings are going to do next to

impossible just like trying to predict

whether bitcoin is going to be at 50 000

next week or it's going to be a 20 000

next week who freaking knows nobody

knows on that short term you could use

technical analysis to help guide you

but we all know you could have breaks

there's breakups or breakdowns right

technicals could falter so we we don't

no we don't have a crystal ball but we

do know macroeconomic cycles and we know

that things change but let's understand

the psychology of what happens when

things change and this is critical this

is absolutely critical and we're also

going to talk about

whether whether you should actually do

anything okay hold on uh we're going to

google this thing

it's called the cell excel

image

for for the stock market and this this

is quite quite powerful this is a pretty

popular cartoon

and uh here it is

so the psychology of markets

is that when things are really doing

well

everybody's buying everybody's happy and

when we get our first dips

you know we have little corrections in

the market like let me speak a little

bit towards towards example here we have

uh the pre-election dip we have the

february and may dip of 2021 the

election dip of 2020 right those dips

these are things that we can buy the dip

on and the reason we can buy the dip on

this is because

of the federal reserve

blowing wind at our back and supporting

us we have an accommodative congress we

have an accommodative fed and there are

no massive red flags that indicate we're

at the top of a cycle now we'll talk

more about being at potentially at the

top of the cycle but let's quickly

understand psychology and and why do we

feel emotional when when things turn

right where does that emotion come from

so

this this cartoon essentially starts out

with hey i've got a stock here that

could really excel and somebody hears

excel oh i wonder what could excel you

know the curiosity when somebody says

something new it creates sometimes shock

or curiosity like huh what they're doing

what huh that's that's kind of this face

here which in my opinion

uh it would be an example of let's say

somebody who is regularly a long term

sort of buy and hodler and then somebody

sells that that creates a little bit of

what and so you get more folks paying

attention excel what oh did i hear cell

wait what uh what's going on over here

it's hell uh and then this is where

where first you get anger uh you get

confusion and anger of of folks wait

wait no this is this is the opposite and

anytime you're in a cycle and a cycle

changes the macroeconomic cycle

switches or changes and shifts or in a

different position in it emotions flare

because it's different look it is easy

i'll tell you it is easy easy easy in

2011 to see why everybody didn't buy the

dip you know why everybody didn't buy

the dip in 2011 on real estate because

everybody thought real estate sucked

that's when you know you're getting

closer to the bottom of a macro economic

cycle when everybody is telling you oh

you're in real estate that sucks man

that's a tough market i would go to

trader joe's the people at trader joe's

like real estate match oh tough market

man now i go to trader joe's you know

what they tell me

dude man bought a house couple years ago

up 200 grand man i don't really have to

work here anymore

you see what i'm saying okay those are

indicators of changes in where we are in

the cycle

i don't know that filming this here on

january 28th my 30th birthday that we

are with certainty at the top of an

economic cycle

but we have red flags that indicate we

might be due

for

the turn in the cycle no guarantees we

could always have manipulation in the

market but if we are at the top of a

macroeconomic cycle the pain could be

outsized and last for a very long time

we're going to talk about time in just a

moment but first

and we're going to talk about sort of

risk benefit analysis as well but first

let's go back to to psychology here

so

once

when the first people start selling you

know when people are selling when

everybody's buying they're just an idiot

bear right when when somebody who's

usually a bull turns to a bear and you

have an inflection point

there's a lot of emotion not only

that it comes from individuals watching

that person or paying attention to

somebody but there's also a lot of

emotion that that can come within that

person like for example if uh if if you

change

directions because you start seeing

massive

five-year two-year macroeconomic changes

and you're concerned about a potential

macroeconomic shift then

that's that's a point where you're it's

almost like you have to reprogram all of

what you've been doing if you're during

the expansion cycle let's let's go back

to that real estate cycle during that

real estate expansion cycle you're like

your mentality is okay buy the dip on

everything every fixer-upper that comes

up i'm a buy no second thought and you

program yourself to being on this side

of the cycle when you're on this side of

the cycle the programming is it's

automatic it's by the dip don't worry

long-term investing rules uh we we uh

you know no matter what it's it's gonna

end up correcting uh back to the upside

it'll be fine selloffs are normal blah

blah blah blah right you are programmed

to buy when you are on this side

uh especially hopefully when you're on

the bottom half because you're in an

expansionary

cycle

when you get to a peak or potential peak

or you believe and this is the tough

part you believe you're ready peak you

have to reprogram all of that you go

from hey let's get the private jet let's

go spend the money in cabo let's buy

everything by the dip man

bed's always here first that changes

to

uh-oh we got to start paying attention

to these red flags because they're

indicative of a potential top no

guarantees but they could be indicative

of a potential

macro top not a short term top not like

ah things are selling off a little bit

because of the election coming up or

whatever right some data's bad but don't

worry those red flags aren't that bad

right

whatever like we get through that over

here it's not like real estate was

straight up either i know i drew it kind

of straight up but it had vacillations

you know

whatever

wasn't a big deal

the bigger issue is when you get

confounding macro red flags we're going

to talk about those again in just a

second

then why again do we have emotion here

we have emotion at the peak because now

when you're at a potential peak

everything changes the first thing that

changes is you have to start programming

into your own mind okay look i'm a big

fan of guns and butter i'm a big fan of

saving money but now i gotta ramp it up

now we're gonna save even more

now we're going to cut from our

discretionary spending even more

now we're going to double down and work

harder and build more cash and build

more wealth as soon as we can

just in case we do go into an extended

bear market see folks

miss this and and this is what's so so

critical okay

people like to say oh well i'm a long

run investor i'm just investing for the

long term look at the the s p 500 over

the long term it's basically like this

all the little gyrations are this that's

fine that's totally true

but a problem that we run into when we

look at a line like this so we end up

extending a massive you know 80-year

line like this and forgetting that

missing one year worst case in a worst

case scenario if you missed one year and

this was the normal line let's say you

missed the year right here maybe your

returns from having been the same path

might be slightly under that right if

you sat out for example a year or six

months like how much is the nasdaq or

the s p 500 really going to go to

all-time new highs in 2022 who knows it

could be a minus one percent year it

could be a plus five percent year okay

is is that five percent worth the risk

and this is something you'd have to

evaluate yourself right but anyway what

what folks

generally miss is not only

evaluating your risk tolerance in the

event that we are at the top of a cycle

uh but the the psychological pain of

changing

so again we are in when we're in this

part of the cycle by the dip by the by

the everything's good wind is at our

back we're in this part of the cycle we

everything we do changes we become again

hoarders by the dippers cash orders okay

now before we keep going we've we've got

to address this right here take a look

at this right if you invested in the s p

500 right here in 1973

i kid you not it would have taken 20

years

for you to break even

if you would have invested right here

during the dot-com bubble and maybe you

even started buying the early dip it

would take you about 14

years to break even

so yeah people like to draw these

average charts where they just draw a

line and they say oh long run investing

long run investing great great great

always good yes

for

the vast majority of folks that is the

easiest thing to do

but macroeconomic cycles do exist

and

you've got to ask yourself if you think

you are at a potential top in an

economic cycle is it worth just

hodling maybe and not buying the dip

because the first dip could just be the

beginning of the dips right

look look at the relative strength index

hop on over to the s p 500 people use

this technical indicator wrong all the

time and it drives me nuts you go over

to the s p 500 look at the march of 2020

dip over here relative strength index

right here uh any anything under this

line means we're oversold anything above

the yellow line here means we're

overbought and so folks like to say oh

yeah yeah buy when the uh when the rsi

is below 30

that's a sign that we're oversold and

right now here january 28th we're in the

oversold territory the s p 500 is down

like what eight percent or whatever

right well look at this folks the s p

was down eight percent

ish eight to ten percent right here and

we were oversold according to the

relative strength index the downside is

it sold off another 30

in the month thereafter

and the only reason this is the scary

part the only reason

and this is also going to go back full

circle to the red flags of our economic

cycle

the only reason the market bottomed out

was here on march 23rd the federal

reserve bailed us out the federal

reserve said they will bail us out now

i wanna i wanna draw this on a real

estate cycle with you but first i gotta

give you some examples here so you can

believe this look at this

stock market crashed in 1987 you might

have heard of that famous monday stock

market crashed in 2000 and i'm gonna

write the bottoms here okay uh well no

i'm not gonna write the problem so stock

market crash in two thousand uh stock

market crashed in 2008. stock market

crashed briefly briefly in 2018 stock

market crashed in 2020.

these are your stock market crashes of

the last what is that 35 years okay

the stock market bottomed in 87

because the federal reserve came out and

said

hey we'll bail you out don't worry

this was the first time the fed did that

the usually it was congress that would

sort of have to bail markets out this

was really the first time

in

bubble

massive euphoria you know that excel

phase uh or or

i should say rather that by by phase uh

was was quite frantic uh in the cartoon

here which i don't even think we

got to that part of the cartoon yet

right but uh see how excel becomes i

can't take this madness anymore i'm

leaving goodbye goodbye bye bye bye bye

right this would be your confusion part

of the market again your bottom and then

bye-bye and then you get that euphoria

again right which turns into a cell but

anyway

uh jump in over here

you get the euphoria of the dot-com

bubble

geez this is ridiculous the market

bottoms

in q1 of 2003

why did it bottom out

because the fed

came in with massive interest rate

reductions so fed bailout

and discussions of continued support

whatever because there's pain

interest rates started going up again

after two three years because things

started getting excessive again in 2005

and six but anyway fed bailout 2008

market crashed one day at bottom it

bottomed in exactly february of 2009

why

because even though in 2008 congress

authorized 700 billion dollars of

spending it wasn't until february of

2009 that the federal reserve authorized

one

trillion dollars of bailout money and

that's when the market bottom

federal reserve

on december 19th of 2018 said hey you

know what we're not going to do three

rate hikes next year instead we're going

to do two

that was a u-turn in the federal

reserve's

tenancies and that led the market to go

up within within a week it started going

up it didn't go up quickly it

it slowly bottomed and slowly started

going back up

important to keep in mind in 2020 we

bottomed out

on march 23rd why did we bottom out

because the federal reserve said we will

print an unlimited amount of money

unlimited qe right

so

now what i want you to ask yourself is

if all of these years here are economic

cycles

where are we in the federal reserve

economic cycle right now

let me ask you that

so let's draw instead of the real estate

cycle or the business cycle let's draw

the federal reserve cycle this is the

federal reserve cycle

market crashes market turns around folks

when does the market turn around

at the bottom the market turns around at

the bottom when the fed

bails us

out

that's when the market turns around at

the bottom this is when we start ticking

back up slowly and the federal reserve

continues to accommodate the markets

this is an emotional spot because it's

like oh my gosh we're getting bailed out

it's confusing it's like wait does this

mean bye no no it's a false bottom it's

a double dip recession oh no and you get

people angry that other people are

buying because it's like no it's a fake

out

that emotion is really high at turning

points the most emotional times in

investing are right there that's when

everybody's freaking out and mad at

everybody else it's also when mistakes

are made in terms of uh you know not not

coming across potentially as crystal

clear because

like when we're when we're on this

turning point

it it can happen so quickly that we're

like um

okay wow this was a really quick change

we got to adapt to this in a business

cycle time to start cutting back time to

start saving money you know that's a

quick change on families and people can

get mad and people getting upset

it's normal though at these periods

within a cycle and so what what is the

top

well

historically

it's when the fed

tightens

or begins to tighten uh

however

this has to be coupled with and this is

this is crystal clear this is like where

i shouldn't say crystal because this is

critical

fed titans

in

exuberant

market

see the federal reserve talked about

tightening in 2013 and started

tightening in 2016. the market didn't

crash why did the market not crash

because everything was pretty chill we

were clearly uh at more of this phase of

the cycle you know 2013

uh 2016 was really over here how did we

know we were at these levels well

because we didn't have massive glaring

red flags that would indicate we're in

an exuberant market and uh the federal

reserve needs to tighten

the federal reserve was not saying in

2013 or 2016 that oh

valuations are excessively high you know

what they were saying

we need to keep making sure we

accommodate the economy

because we want this expansion to be

broad-based and help people of different

races and sexes and make sure that

everybody can enjoy this economic

recovery which we're finally starting to

see so the federal reserve's tone was

hey we we still got to accommodate yeah

we're going to raise rates a little bit

but we still gotta accommodate

that's why the market actually did well

during those rate cycles right because

the economy was not overly hot

what is the federal reserve telling us

right now

they are

they're so clear about this i don't

understand why people don't understand

this they're telling us a few things

number one they're telling us they don't

care about the stock market

that what they care about is inflation

and maximum employment

so in other words if prices go down

that's not our problem that's not the

fed's problem is what they're saying

they're also telling us that

what you have

is a situation of massive inflation with

excessive valuations they believe that

excessive valuations lead to more risk

in the economy

why because excessive valuations

ultimately mean

that risk goes up people take on more

debt debt becomes more burdensome if

debt becomes more burdensome then the

risk of bankruptcy goes up and if that

spreads throughout the entire economy

then it's entirely possible that the

market could uh not just correct but

crash and lead to the loss of faith

in the united states dollar

and that is the most important thing

that the federal reserve can try to

preserve is the full faith and credit of

the united states

so no they don't care about the stock

market to the extent that it doesn't

affect uh jobs negatively and quite

frankly so what if the market corrects

there's still plenty of time right now

where people are like oh no there's

plenty of hiring going on it doesn't

really matter s p's down 10 or whatever

right it doesn't matter

so

the fed titan's in exuberant markets

right here january 20th 2020

two

we have the federal reserve telling us

valuations are excessive

not only are valuations excessive

but we don't care about the stock market

we care about getting inflation down and

see that's the big red flag that we have

right now is inflation

was thought to get better in 2022 and

the big u-turn and it i tell you it

comes fast this is where people like oh

my gosh how do you change your mind so

quickly oh it's flip flop this

folks

when we got hit in the face

with the minutes of the december meeting

from the federal reserve

and we combined that with the latest

data on inflation and earnings calls

that inflation was getting worse not

better

and inflation was broadening we know we

have a massive red flag

and so the question is

when we have a massive red flag and the

federal reserve is telling us this

how are we going to get how could we say

we're here how could we actually expect

to go to higher valuations

we can't

until the fed u-turns

and so folks are wondering kevin what

are you doing right now in a

macroeconomic cycle change

well

we know

the best thing to do in a larger

change that could last years

is obviously

to

build cash by whatever means necessary

and be prepared to buy

over here

you can only buy the bottom when you

have money you cannot buy the bottom of

the market and i'm telling you you can't

even buy the bottom half of the market

when you have no money

all the people who wanted to buy homes

in 2010 who didn't build up cash during

2007 and the beginning of 2008 all those

folks were not able to buy homes cheap

because they potentially got wiped out

they didn't clean up their debt they

didn't reduce their spending they didn't

build cash

now the people who just bought and

huddled that's fine for i would say 90

plus percent of investors that's fine if

we draw an average of of uh stock prices

you're good you sat through four or five

years of pain or potentially more

depending on when you bought you had to

sit through that

but sure as long as you got as long as

you were more exposed to the market than

not you did well it's fine time corrects

all sins and so this is where you have

to ask yourself

are you willing

to bet

on your belief of the macroeconomic

cycle

but if you're wrong

you got to get back in quickly and so

this is dangerous and risky

so

you have to ask yourself what you want

to put yourself through what kind of

stress do you want to put yourself

through

do you believe that the red flags

indicate we are at the top of an

economic cycle if they are there's no

harm in taking profits

and preparing even if that means having

to take some losses like for example

let's say this is what your net worth

did over the last uh you know 10 years

or whatever and all of a sudden your net

worth went down like 20

and it's like oh my gosh but i don't

want to sell because i used to be here

okay well if you believe the trajectory

for the next five years

is that

then then potentially if you can avoid

that fall here and have more cash to buy

you could actually extrapolate your

wealth more

now i want to be critically clear this

is all risky and if you're wrong about

timing the macro economic cycle you've

got to make sure you get back on train

america otherwise train america is going

to leave you behind

now i want to give you exactly what my

thoughts are right now as of january

20th 2020 first of all i have no

freaking idea

when

we are going to get a u-turn in

inflation data that is the red flag goes

away or jerome powell u-turns i have no

idea but if we got a u-turn and that red

flag went away i need to get back in the

market because i gotta be long train

america i can't bet against train

america my whole life i will get left

behind i will get screwed selling uh and

not being in the market you will get

screwed being out of the market for the

long term

but

but but but

if you see massive red flags that

indicate we are on a downward trajectory

that is potentially likely to continue

then it is entirely appropriate to say i

believe we're at the top of an economic

cycle

i'm going to sell

even if i've already taken a little bit

of a haircut i'm going to wait on the

sidelines until i get evidence that

being at the top of the economic cycle

is over

and potentially that is when there is

actually blood on the streets when

people are really freaking out right

and that's when you buy you don't have

to be perfectly in the bottom remember

you don't have to time it perfectly you

have to be the bottom half of the darn

cycle you don't want to be at the top

half of the cycle

and

you got to ask yourself are we at the

top half are we in the bottom half

i think it's pretty damn obvious where

we are

uh but anyway

there's been a lot of question

about uh emotions involved in this

uh and the top and bottom

are always emotional because we're

changing directions for changing

strategies and when it comes to

the psychology of money no matter

whether it's real estate or stocks

you've got to ask yourself

do i want to play the economic cycle or

am i willing to potentially sit upside

down for four or five years you

almost certainly will be positive again

in the future

almost certainly

but are you willing to hold through that

and either way

you've got to determine or is is the

risk of being out of the market worth it

because when you get a turn sometimes it

can happen fast

sometimes you can get a rebound very

very quickly so keep that in mind uh

usually the turns uh do take more time

because people regularly think that

they're just fake out rallies so it it

takes quite a bit of time i would say at

least in the stock market uh u-turns

could take

quite frankly six months you're not

gonna get the best pricing as if you

timed the market perfectly at the bottom

but but uh

that's that's generally unrealistic

just do your best and wait for u-turns

in the macro economic cycle so i hope

this helps on the macroeconomic cycle

and folks we'll see in the next one

quick append it's also worth noting that

in japan you could have invested in the

90s and still not be break even uh but i

do want to just provide uh thoughts

you've uh on on resources like how do

you know uh that the economic the macro

indicators are shifting you've got to

pay attention to what actually moves

markets right now that's the federal

reserve but it doesn't always have to be

the federal reserve there are other

things that can move markets uh there

are things that move markets short term

and they're things that move markets

long term short term would be more like

your daily kind of news cycle oh war

here or you know geopolitical tensions

here saber rattling here blah blah blah

right that creates your sort of daily

ups and downs your daily fluctuations

macro you're usually looking at

indicators of gdp indicators of

recession

the inverted yield curve

you're looking at what the federal

reserve is doing are they blowing wind

at your back or are they providing

headwinds

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those are critical

very very critical you don't want the

yield curve to invert

uh that is the sign of the bond market

pricing and the potential for a

recession coming uh as uh short-term

bonds are more expensive or provide

higher yields and long-term bonds which

is bizarre

uh you you um

you really gotta pay attention to the

fed

you should become a student of the

federal reserve if you want to time

macroeconomic cycles you should be a

student of the federal reserve

absolutely critical uh and reading a lot

about the federal reserve studying prior

crashes huge i think one of the things

that they should do in schools is not

teach like ancient history like egypt

and stuff like that they should teach

like market history

that would be the best history like

studying all the different crashes uh

but like in detail you know it's like

now we're doing egypt now we're doing it

wrong why

you know persia or whatever no why

mesopotamia come on man

teach something that's useful anyway

thank you