Selling: The Stock Market is Capitulating.

oh retail might be starting to

capitulate oh that is actually really

freaking good news final freaking Lee

jeez man I have been waiting for those

paper handists to paper hand for a

long freaking time now now I don't think

you and I should paper hand okay it's

not Financial advice either but between

us okay usually when retail and mass

starts capitulating it forms the bottom

of the market it's great retail's really

good and find the top and sell on the

bottom okay they're really really great

at it and mass okay now we know we don't

want to be like that okay so let's take

a look at some of this information from

this JP Morgan report that just came out

I have the JP Morgan report it is pretty

thorough it's pretty good we're gonna

keep it nice and simple but wow it is

awesome we're gonna talk a lot about

this let's get right into it remember if

you're an accredited investor or check

out househark.com home by going to

househack.com and submitting your invest

ready letter and join before October

31st to get up to 50 percent well if

your course member up to 60 and

basically free call options on the

company which is awesome read all the

details this is not a solicitation just

go to househack.com read the PPM you can

read the details obviously you have to

invest so they're not really free and

warrants aren't really call options but

you get all the details just I'm

simplifying okay anyway let's get into

this so what do we have here we have a

retail order and bound so first we

according to JPM okay and and all these

companies have sort of their own access

to data according to JPM retail Traders

were sellers for the second week in a

row this is actually like the first time

that anybody has said retail has been a

seller so far like since December since

this has been dipping everybody's been

like yeah this is it by today by the dip

and it's just like it's like like mental

uh it's just constant all you gotta do

is like no no

okay no that's not the only thing you

could do you could sell you can wait for

your 30-day tax lost harvesting period

to go by and then you get you to slowly

start nibbling into things that are

better more likely to survive in a

recession although

tentatively that hasn't been working out

too well for Tesla but just wait topic

for a different video anyway this past

week they sold net 1.1 billion dollars

almost two standard deviations below the

12-month average okay so basically what

that means is if the 12-month average of

retail buying is this we are one Sigma

below no two Sigma below uh like usual

selling by retail and see I purposely

said Sigma because we remember when Vlad

during the whole Robinhood crisis is

like this is a five Sigma event

uh Sigma is a reference to how many

standard deviations you're away one is

like 60 what seven percent two brings

you to 95 so basically we're like at the

far tail uh you know visually we're

we're at like

over here in terms of retail selling

okay it's kind of crazy uh anyway so uh

so they sold a lot and they also sold

both the Monday and Tuesday rallies that

we had it's actually that's not so

terribly dumb I mean it's kind of like

hey we got a little bit of a rally here

let's take some tandies okay I mean I

can't blame that they do remain buyers

of ETFs though including buying the S P

500 and selling the Russell 2000 which

is small cap so they're kind of moving

into s p 500. now we got some specific

tickers and stuff and we'll talk about

those in just a moment oh well they

actually mentioned some of them here

we'll go even deeper on this in just a

moment but retail Traders sold 2.4

billion dollars of individual stocks and

then if they sold 2.4 billion of

individual and then they net sold 1.1

that means the difference went into ETFs

right anyway large cap names including

Apple Facebook and Google were sold off

all of those suffered from from heavy

selling in the last two years and

represented the worst selling and single

stock since March of 2020. man I was

making videos in March of 2020. it's

literally sitting next to my fireplace I

sat next to my fireplace and I'm like

guys I don't have any cash here done I

took out cash I'm like guys I really

feel like I'm taking money and I'm just

throwing it into the fireplace that's

what it felt like in March attorney it

was just so terrible it was so bad it

kind of feels that way now every time

you buy it's just like and it's gone

yeah I don't know why I'm laughing it

sucks uh

oh gosh Jack tells me my seven-year-old

he tells me I laugh at him too much not

like at him but like sort of with him

like he'll tell me something at school

uh and I'll be like Jack would you do at

school today because he he goes to a

religious school uh so I'm like Jack

what'd you do at school living he's like

God

like no you did not do God

oh dear anyway uh bearish sentiment was

also evident in the options Market as

retail Traders traded risk for

volatility okay yeah that's that's going

bearish uh they Supply okay yeah that's

those are sort of the numbers on that

that's fine uh okay interesting so now

let's look at some charts of order and

balance so take a look at the ETF uh

sort of selling pressure here uh you can

see basically El charto going down

though it is still positive but the

amount that it's positive by is less

than it has been uh taking charto here

get out of there a little circle

uh since about the middle of 2020 for

ETFs yeah crazy now when we look over

here at uh we'll put that Circle right

back there okay now when we look over

here and we look at this circle we're

actually the worst single stock selling

uh actually as they said since 2020.

yikes that's wild and you could see the

downtrend here look at the downtrend in

these lows over here lower low lower low

lower low I mean retail's just like

I'm peacing I'm dipping boys it's over

it's over it was a good run we have fun

together but we're done

oh man it's the best time to buy yep

all right so let's get to a few charts

here that I thought were interesting

short interest in the top 100 names top

100 names this isn't like the small ones

okay uh although it's the top 100 uh

small and mid caps over here but still

the top 100 of those right look at that

real big imbalance here uh in terms of

uh Short Selling overall whether it's

institutions or retail pretty stable

here on the large caps and then here's

some particular signals or uh you know

imbalance read it looks like inflows to

the S P 500 either through a ticker spy

and ticker vo or positively imbalanced

so more inflows than outflows right uh

Tesla had larger inflows probably

because the damn thing's crashing to I

mean it's basically going to go to like

69 a share okay I don't actually believe

that and Amazon's doing uh doing well

the ones that are actually sucking are

Apple uh oh that's actually kind of

surprising some out flows on The sqq

Meta Google AMD triple QQQ uh Occidental

Petroleum I'm surprised by that and Nike

uh Nvidia Microsoft seeing some outflows

over here now I do want to say something

about Nike okay this morning a very very

uh smart uh course member I mean it was

great this is the kind of stuff we do in

the course member live streams in the

morning so this morning we were supposed

to do an Etsy Deep dive and we didn't

get to do too much of an Etsy Deep dive

we kind of did like a scratch of a dive

for Etsy and then we've got some more

charts to look at here in a moment as

well but we did like a scratch of a deep

dive in Etsy and uh one of the course

members was like Oh Hey Kevin you know

what about Lulu like do we think that

Lululemon has the potential of surviving

an earnings recession and uh I have to

say I was really really impressed I'm

not going to go through all of the

details right now but I'm impressed I'm

not impressed with the fact that their

share count like doubled over the last

uh uh last year but but that you know

has a lot of different reasons for it

and that's kind of boring for this video

but

what's crazy is they they actually are

like not reducing prices the way Nike is

that's why when I saw Nike I thought

about this like Nike's like we have too

much inventory more inventory came in

when people stopped buying we believe in

our story let us tell you about how

great our story is but yeah we're uh

we're discounting more Lula on the other

hand's like oh no oh we ain't

discounting anything we still selling

everything for full pop uh-huh get you a

dollar Hollis yeah really incredible I

have to say that was really really

impressive so not necessarily something

I want to go dive into got to study

those those the share dilution that

happened their shares doubled over the

last like their shares outstanding

doubled over the last year but anyway uh

aside from that

very very big difference there and uh

and I know Tesla's not performing the

best right now but uh really I mean do

we actually think they're gonna have

negative EPS compared to any other

quarter going forward here no absolutely

not and they just got their s p upgrade

for investment grade uh debt which is

actually quite bullish but uh anyway

Let's uh let's keep going over here so

this was interesting this is what JP

Morgan uses to to sort of get data on

retail and I have to say I thought it

was quite an insult that only about one

percent that little green line right at

the top little green line then only

about one percent of retail activity was

actually quibble

which remember folks you could get

literally 12 free stocks with Weeble by

going to metcaven.com Weeble but it was

only one percent Weeble Robin Hood uh

where you can also sign up with okay you

can go to metcaven.com Robinhood

Robinhood represented just two percent

of retail activity per JP Morgan here in

just the last you know few months that

goes to June over there

the one who's really killing it

apparently with retailers TD

well damn

I don't have an affiliate link for them

so anyway uh margin balances I like

looking at this because I like to see uh

margin go down so margin account balance

change change is good

so yeah but the chart's actually a

little difficult to read and it looks

like it really only goes to about June

so I don't know how useful that chart is

to us screw that chart all right forget

it next we'll go over to this this here

gives you a little bit of a visual in

terms of some stocks that that I'm

watching and the more they are to the

right the more retail interest uh they

have this is now per Vanda track okay

and this is for the last last few days

rather than the last couple weeks

because remember JP Morgan told us we

actually had some outflows for Nike over

the last few weeks well uh Rita Vander

track over the last two days is actually

seeing more bullishness come back over

into Netflix uh Nike and Tesla these

names over here getting a little bit

more retail attraction that is while

their prices are going down so you're

seeing some buy the defectivity there

uh I have to say shopify's financials

were not very good when we did that in a

course member live stream remember you

can still get lifetime access uh we're

we're actually having issues with

Shopify right now and trying to uh

launch a particular uh product that

won't have lifetime access but anyway if

you want lifetime access to the live

streams join using the link down below

and the coupon code and I'll let you

know when I finally get this fixed uh

retail super not interested apparently

in uh eBay over here uh MST DraftKings

Uber less interest in in Hut you're

getting a little bit more institutional

buying over here so quite fascinating as

well as Posh not getting a lot of retail

interest over there as well uh but

anyway this gives you a little bit of a

look here now Vanda track is also

noticing that uh we are seeing this sort

of increase of retail accumulating

positions in Occidental now remember JP

Morgan showed an order imbalance over

the last two weeks that's okay this

chart is just showing you a more like

over the last two years kind of look

into into retail's interest in

Occidental Petroleum this is probably

some coattail riding of Warren Buffett

going on here and something that is odd

is that Vanda track and this just shows

you like we have to be a little bit

careful but I'll give some bottom lines

here about the data that we look at

because Vanda track actually thought

that retail had net inflows into the

market over the last uh over the the

Monday and Tuesday period not by much

though you know somewhere between 900 to

1.1 billion and we've had we've had

higher days of uh of inflows but yeah

you know then then again you know

probably right there at least according

to the Vantage track averages so the way

I kind of reconcile that is is I look at

all right

nobody actually knows because the

definition of retail could be very very

different based on every company that's

looking at it and so what I like to do

is I like to do the following when you

get sort of mixed messages and I'm

purposely talking about this here at the

end because I think it's it's logical to

look at it this way okay so let's say

you have one data set and it says okay

retail is slowing which is Vanda track

right retail slowing

which is true well I did a report last

week and we were seeing that retail

Investments overall were starting to

average lower we're getting more instead

of like an average inflow of 1.4 billion

dollars we're getting closer to like one

to nine hundred million dollars of

inflows so that average is going down

right so retail's slowing so I guess if

I were to draw the line for retail it

probably looks a little bit more like

this right so this is probably your

Vanda track report right here and then

let's do our JPM report JPM is kind of

implying that the trajectory looks a

little bit more like that right so the

point though is that both of them even

though they have a little bit confusing

data here in the last couple weeks you

know JPMorgan thinks things are a lot

more dire than Vanda track think it

thinks things are you are still seeing

what is an inflection point down in

Vanda tracks retail tracking data and an

inflection down in jpmorgan's data and

the point is when we see retail starting

to sell is usually when we form that

favorite word called a bottom now

obviously we've got two big things

coming up I'm going to do a separate

video on those we got a jobs report

coming up tomorrow morning that's going

to be at 5 30 a.m Pacific time which is

8 30 a.m uh 8 30 a.m Eastern make sure

you come to that in case you don't have

a convenient link for that just go to

metkevin.com Links

metkevin.com links you could do it on

your phone right now whatever and just

click the top link I put it there for

you to make it really really easy so

medkevin.com links and you could just

basically RSVP to the jobs live stream

uh tomorrow October 7th and uh if you do

that metkevin.com links and then click

the little Jobs live stream and then

click the video you'll get you know a

reminder to notify you that hey we're

going live tomorrow morning hopefully

you're there or you could watch it

whenever you you wake up or whatever

that Jobs live stream is tomorrow and

then next week actually today's the

sixth yeah next week Thursday we'll have

the pleasure of doing the CPI report now

both of these are going to be Mission

critical to the Federal Reserve and it's

possible that we're seeing some of this

retail selling right before these two

reports because retail thinks maybe

these reports are just going to be bad

and if and Retail will be right here if

those reports are bad

we screwed baby it was screwed it's

gonna suck you're gonna wish you so

foreign

folks I mean um happy coffee drinking

folks

day drinking is bad have a good one

goodbye