Why I JUST Flipped.

everyone meet kevin here in this video

i'm going to talk about why i just

bought stocks again this video is

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now we got to talk about

why would i buy especially when there's

so much uncertainty in the marketplace

right now

and what the heck changed well let's set

this up

first i'm going to keep this very simple

before the geopolitical crisis in the uh

well in ukraine and uh and with russia

before that there were two scenarios

there both of the scenarios involved no

war maybe like some threats of war but

no actual war and we were really

evaluating okay we've got no war no war

high inflation high inflation wage price

spiral or not

and in the wage price spiral scenario

this is where when workers have pricing

power they continue demanding higher

wages especially amongst lower wage

earners businesses have to continue

raising their prices to keep margins up

and consumers keep paying for it the

only way you get out of this is if you

have aggregate demand come down right

this ends up being very important so

hold on to that for a moment

statistically the last information that

we had by the way was the federal

reserve in december telling us a bad

thing would be a wage price spiral and

the imf tells us the first sign of a

wage price spiral is when essentially in

a labor report you see that wages are

rising faster

than

inflation and that's literally what we

had in january in the january labor

report that we got at the beginning of

february what happened we saw evidence

of a wage price spiral forming which is

very very bad because if you have a wage

price spiral even if the inflationary

pressures of supply chains go away the

wage price spiral keeps prices going up

very very bad in this scenario the fed

has to force a recession because that's

how you get rid of inflation

easily you force a recession easy uh now

that doesn't mean we're definitely going

to see a recession in fact we're going

to talk about my thoughts on a recession

in just a moment but more importantly

this scenario has now changed the second

scenario is no wage price spiral and if

there's no wage price spiral then as

supply chains were lent then inflation

comes down because prices start coming

down right so in the second base

scenario you're not really selling

stocks anyway in the first scenario if

you believe in the wage price file

you're like okay this is a problem big

problem potentially we got to pay

attention to this and maybe we gotta you

know

sit on the sidelines a little bit and be

a little patient

okay so what's changed well i've gone

through a few scenarios uh and what i'm

going to do is i'm going to provide you

the bottom line scenario so that way you

know exactly what i'm looking at and why

do i feel it made sense to buy back in

with a portion of my portfolio i'm going

to tell you how much i bought back in

with and what i'm looking for in

companies first two quick notes number

one check out the daily upside via that

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did about seven and a half million

dollars over the last couple weeks in

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out and let's get into

why i bought okay so i've i've put

together many scenarios on this and i've

already explained a lot of these

thoughts to course members but one of

the things that i wanted to do here was

try to give you a concise summary of the

scenario so this scenario is really an

update to scenario number one which is

what i believe we would likely be

heading down and that's now changed

scenario number one was the no war high

inflation but wage price spiral and then

the fed being forced to force a

recession that has shifted now now this

doesn't mean go rush to stocks and and

go all in but i did buy i'm going to

explain this and my strategy for the

rest of the year at least based on the

outlook that i can have right now so

here's what changed first of all the

federal reserve is likely at least based

on comments from barkin daley mester

and uh and bullard that yeah there is an

upside risk to inflation but russia

ukraine bring

unexpected

uncertainties the european central bank

is talking about potentially delaying

stimulus withdrawals

energy bills could actually rise as well

as food bills could rise which lead to

more inflation but those inflation

reasons have there basically there's a

scapegoat for that inflation right it's

not companies just raising prices it's

companies raising prices because of oil

and food possibly related to ukraine and

now the fed has another excuse to say

well

inflation's transitory

we just have to wait for the russia

ukraine disaster to end and then oh and

then supply chains will rebuild and we

just continue down this transitory path

and so my belief is that the fed is

actually going to u-turn and we've

already seen this in commentary people

that were super hawks are now turning a

little bit more dovish

the federal reserve ends up being more

dovish as the international community is

uncertain about what is going to be

the fallout of the ukraine russia crisis

they're going to be patient and wait for

more data this is why right now fed

funds futures markets are pricing in

only a quarter percent rate hike march

16th at the next fomc meeting they're

pricing this in with 90 certainty now

there is fear that a short-term uh a

short-term crisis in ukraine and russia

could just lead to a short-term spike of

inflation and then we're kind of

potentially back to scenario number one

which is uh oh we have a wage price

spiral and we need to deal with crushing

inflation uh but because this is so

uncertain mixing a pandemic and now this

war aspect i think the fed is not going

to full vulcarus like they did

essentially in the 70s i'm calling for a

pseudo volcker ring in the event we end

up going into a wage price spiral where

they end up just believing that we need

to get we need more time to get through

this higher inflation and we're going to

be more consistent with how we raise

hikes and i'm guessing they're just

going to go 25 25 20 25 25 and so on

probably for the next eight to 12 fed

meetings so that's all of this year the

seven more meetings

and the first half of next year hike

hike hike hike hike all at 25 basis

points and they're gonna go super chill

super chill offloading of the balance

sheet and they're not going to end up

going super dark and rug pulling us

because of the uncertainty of ukraine so

even though i believe we're still going

to be victims of a

temporary wage price spiral i do think

the fed is turning more dovish in

addition to the fed turning more dovish

the fed has also already told us that as

food and energy prices go up we might

actually reduce aggregate demand because

people might have less money and

remember what the condition was for

getting rid of the wage price spiral i

told you to remember this at the

beginning video at least i think i did

uh

aggregate demand going down

so now why would aggregate demand uh go

down well i mean a prolonged war maybe

not only would lead to higher energy

costs potentially lower savings over

time because we have less stimulus uh

and and over time there's uncertainty in

markets i mean look it's not like you're

going to go to disneyland and spend less

money but gdp can fall due to a

reduction in travel in certain areas you

see global demand kind of fall at

certain companies uh

especially those related to eastern

europe travel in that area kind of voids

a down to a halt people start having

fear about nato and world war three and

nuclear starts going trending on twitter

and terrorism fears start coming up and

splinter cell fears start coming up like

all this disaster

will have the effect of somewhat

reducing demand again i still think

you're gonna go to disneyland don't get

me wrong it's not like you're gonna go

to disney and everybody's gonna be like

oh gosh there's a war in ukraine

no like it's terrible that's not gonna

happen but you're still gonna see some

compression and demand

so

what does this all mean like what's the

bottom line of all of this well the

bottom line is

the fed because of this invasion is very

likely going to be more dovish they've

already started becoming more dovish the

fed is more uncertain and they've

already been uncertain about hiking

rates i do think they're still going to

do a 25 basis point hike i do believe

that they've made that crystal clear

that it's time for liftoff in march and

ukraine doesn't super impact us right

now

but the long term effects of the

uncertainty will lead the fed to want to

be more

data dependent

will be less likely to want to volca us

as soon and take their time more they're

going to look at the data what data are

they going to look at well the next

thing they're going to look at is the

march 4th labor report

and the march 10th cpi report so make

sure you are ready uh to to react to

those reports

now i believe there could still be a lot

of fear that ends up popping up between

now and march 16th though it's not gonna

take a lot in my opinion for let's say

this uh this ukraine uh crisis ends

quickly it's entirely possible maybe it

doesn't maybe it worsens i don't know

uh maybe somebody from the fed comes out

and says some nonsense or a bad report

comes out on the 4th or 10th i think

there is a lot of reason to have

uncertainty between now and march 16th

to where i don't think it's necessary to

necessarily rush into the market and go

all in right away because you're going

to miss the boat i don't really see us

going to all-time highs until

all of the ukraine russia issues are

resolved and we've already felt what a

few interest rate hikes are like demand

stays high and inflation starts coming

down that those are going to be our

catalyst for going back to all-time

highs problem is i don't think q1

earnings which we're going to start

getting in april are going to be

anywhere near as strong we saw in q4 so

i actually think even after march 16th

we're going to be four weeks away from

earnings season we're probably not going

to have as beautiful of earnings and

we're going to have a lot of complaints

about oh q1 you know people don't have

as much money uh people didn't spend as

much in q1 ukraine made people nervous

spending went down and stuff so i don't

think there's necessarily a reason to

like super rush into stocks

but i did invest about 43 of my

portfolio in crypto and stocks the rest

is cash i closed my gold position

yesterday morning and if you look at

what gold did you'll know that i was in

my course member live stream when gold

was at that peak and i was with course

members saying i think now that the

incursion is happening we're going to be

at peak fear for gold sold and gold fell

right afterwards uh it's not my fault i

can't move a 10 trillion dollar market

it's just something to know so if you

want these kind of alerts just to see

where my head is or why i'm thinking of

something it's i think of it as kind of

like a siren like oh that's what kevin's

thinking right now check out those

programs remember you get lifetime

access to these a lot of people are

bundling stocks on psychology money and

the wealth group but anyway

uh so i went into stocks and crypto and

what am i looking for not a lot in

crypto but definitely in certain stocks

what am i looking for in stocks i'm

looking for

unimpeded actual growth and high margins

see i think the end the uh sorry the

etsy run is a little bit ridiculous that

we've seen the last two days because

their guide for q1 was ten percent low

but the market's totally ignoring it

just because it had been low square did

decently they met expectations so i i

respect the run-up on square i think

that's fair i don't know how long it'll

last we've had a lot of convictionless

rallies in this market and again like i

said there's so much uncertainty still

ahead i don't think you need to like

rush in to this market patience i think

is going to be rewarded in 2022 but the

big issue

in my opinion you want to look for is

margin you want companies that have big

growth and margin profitability so they

got to be profitable profitless tech is

just not sexy right now it's not going

to be sexy until we get back to the

euphoric times in my opinion

i wouldn't try to bet on a short squeeze

i would be looking for high margin high

growth companies what are some examples

of these

apple tesla end phase

those are some good examples nvidia amd

great margins i mean these are these are

some really strong players to some

degree disney trade desk google these

are great companies as well now

i don't own all of these i love these

companies i don't own all of them

i went a little bit too concentrated

probably in a few of those that i

mentioned here

but look i don't think we're rushing to

the moon anytime soon

obviously i'm up from the purchases that

i made yesterday uh in the morning and i

saved a lot sitting out some of the

drama of the market but like i said i'm

in no rush

but i am seeing some

positive signs from the fed

and i do think as well as the ecb and

putting all this together and i do think

these uncertainties can help move

aggregate demand down which is

thankfully good for hopefully minimizing

that wage price spiral so i'm very

excited check out the daily upside by

the link down below next the link for

the courses thank you so much for being

here we'll see you next one bye