Ark Invest Tesla Investor Day Preview | *Massive* Announcement.

March 1st I think Tesla's going to

announce a vehicle that'll you know

they'll claim they're going to be able

to produce for half the cost you think

they're going to announce a car oh yeah

yeah yeah yeah I mean that they've

they've definitely indicated that

they're likely to wow so I think they'll

it'll be a new model that um you know

will be

um very economical and tuned to be a

robo taxi probably uh and that um you

know it it'll it'll just like set the

entire industry off sites on a cost

basis again as in you know now kind of

like the industry is trying to like

design how are we going to scale and and

you know they're just

I I just think that they're designing

for a cost of manufacture that is going

to not have them able to profitably

compete with where Tesla's at but

Charlie Munger says byd is better

I mean I think that

for one thing the Chinese market is is

like a very different Beast than the US

market and I do average vehicles with 13

14 000 there our average use a new car

price 47 000 somewhere around yeah I I

well I don't know about the Chinese

average but but there is like a whole

class of vehicles that's more like a

neighborhood electric vehicle so it

depends on how many of those you bundle

into how you do the averaging

um but you know in net I think within

China it's more likely that Tesla sits

at a premium tier and is not you know

competitive with with real mass volume

manufacturers hitting the Chinese market

that we'll see

um

but I I think that there's like it's

very clear to us that that

um almost all of the automarket is going

to become electric drivetrain based uh

you know we think within five years

it'll be 90 plus percent of the auto

market we also think the auto market is

going to be smaller because Robo taxis

will take up more miles than traditional

Vehicles so there's going to be a

compression and Top Line Sales but you

end up with like 60 million EVS sold in

2027. uh and and we think you know Tesla

is worldwide that is worldwide yeah uh

Tesla is going to command a plurality of

that you know some 20 million vehicles

or so uh and um it's hard for me to see

how at least a legacy automaker is able

to successfully scale and compete and

then the startups which I think

designing an EV from the ground up is is

like a better way to approach the

problem there's a reason that Ford ended

up with way too much harness in its

vehicle like you said and and it's

because you know they didn't probably

didn't take a first principles approach

to design and

um

yeah I I just think that there's

like huge problems in in Legacy

automakers um even leaving aside the

pressure they'll face from Robo taxi and

um you know the fact that they have a

lot of auto loans on their books that

probably aren't going to look very good

over the next few years my idea is that

we probably only really need a a 20

kilowatt battery for for most people

that now brings down the weight of the

vehicle because you're carrying around a

battery that's one-third the weight uh

certainly one-third the cost maybe even

less and so it has an 80 to 100 mile

range that's more than enough for your

daily commute going to the grocery store

as you mentioned probably not I mean

it's like I think that was

range anxiety is not rational as in as

in um I think even the early EVS like

the GM bolt they were kind of that was

their idea was hey we'll deliver a

vehicle that doesn't have you're not

going to go on a road trip with it but

it'll be your electric around town car

right I think for the U.S buyer in

particular when somebody buys a car they

in their head say what is the most

exciting thing I'm going to do with the

car this year and it needs to meet that

need so and they never do it anyway yeah

and then they might it might even be

over four years it's like why do people

buy pickup trucks it's not because

they're hauling things around every day

it's because that one one day it's like

they will feel really good when they

need to dump a mattress in the back and

they're able to do so and so I think

when you're making a big purchase like

that it's you like purchase for that

that tail event

um and and that's just the reality they

consumers not America that that might be

that's me indexing to the American buyer

because I'm more familiar with that yeah

and I think the neighborhood electric

vehicle segment is really interesting

and hasn't been penetrated with a

compelling product and it could be

interesting as in they all look like

golf carts right now and they're

expensive golf carts but I always

thought I never

understood why Apple didn't go after

that segment if they were going to do a

car why not do like a fifteen thousand

dollar Apple car that was an around town

car yeah or twenty thousand dollars

either even and you have like a set of

buyers who would probably be like oh

that's it if it looked cool yeah yeah

like you would massively open up your

design engineering space because you're

no longer designing it to hurdle along

the highway right 70 miles per hour

right and so it could be like a really

interesting product now on the robo taxi

side you know the um there because it's

driving a bunch of people around you

still need a relatively big battery

because they'll probably have to go 200

or 300 miles maybe even a day right and

so then it then it's like you actually

don't get down to that small battery

size that's interesting so

your thought is uh this next vehicle

that Tesla might announce wouldn't

necessarily be something smaller battery

it's Robo taxi it's the direction I

think so and I think I mean if I had to

guess I I think that there's a

optimization they could do in providing

a robo taxi that at least has two or

maybe four separate passenger

compartments that are independent of

each other as in oh wow so part of the

problem with Robo taxi in our view is

that you will um uh you'll massively

increase the number of miles that people

drive on roads okay because it's going

to be much less expensive and much less

convenient to ride around in a car sure

uh and so it's like I don't go to

downtown L.A because it's like an hour

and 15 minute schlog and it's you know

expensive and an Uber and driving myself

it's like exhausting exhausting uh but

if instead of costing three dollars a

mile it costs 30 cents a mile yeah uh

and I'm just riding in the back seat

not only will I do it everybody will do

it and so traffic will get worse because

because the pain of sitting in traffic

isn't as high and it's not as costly to

go from place to place sure okay and and

so then like you know Uber had this

great idea they're like we'll do Uber

pool people along the route to ride with

other people along the Route and um but

that's weird people yes people didn't

use that because then you're like

sitting next to a stranger right you

know and so uh you definitely won't want

to do that in a robo taxi because in a

robo taxi you're either by yourself you

don't even have the Uber driver right

you're just by yourself or with a

stranger no way you choose the stranger

to save yourself like five cents a mile

yeah right but if you can create a robo

taxi that has like separate compartments

that open up and it's like your own

little pod and since it's like you don't

actually care how long it takes anyway

because you're just you know whatever

watch Netflix anyway then you could have

something that enabled that kind of

pooled concept to work that's

interesting they might do that because

they also have some

um FCC patents that but in my opinion

are starting to suggest maybe they're

trying to get Starling into cars that

could potentially align with this idea

who knows sure I mean I think that

starlink on all I mean

you know they already have starlink for

RVs I think I think that um you know and

this is Sam's work who covers reusable

rockets for us but uh we think there's

you know tens of billions of dollar

opportunity and attaching star links to

moving our low earth orbit satellite

constellation comps to moving Vehicles

cars planes RVs boats whatever yeah

maybe you yeah it's I think there's a

like then you're weighing like

um yeah the cost of the antenna versus

like the utility you get uh out of

having it on the vehicle but it seems

like

um if they're doing something like

um uh uh enabling people like

connectivity in their ride absolutely

yeah so that's actually interesting so

initially

yeah because you all have a very strong

bull thesis on uh self-driving Auto taxi

um the um I think your your Tesla

projections almost exclusively in your

bowl case give most of your weight to

the taxis it's like two two-thirds of

the value of Tesla from five years five

years from now is in our view driven by

Robo taxi versus at the 132 electric

vehicles

um and but but I I suspect the product

they'll they'll release will be a this

is an inexpensive vehicle platform to

manufacture that's optimized for

adaptation to Robo taxi but also we can

sell it into people who you know are the

um kind of like median car buyer not

just the average car buyer in the US

which is a lower price point so that

would be the 25-ish thousand dollar car

plus maybe some inflation since then

right right and yeah I don't know what

the price point would be but think about

you know half the half the cost of

produce of the model three and so if the

average model 3 is selling for 50 yeah

maybe 25 or 30. and why do you think

they would announce that now

why because I think that they are

gearing up to manufacture it because

they are even before cyber and semi well

no right I think they as in they'll

announce that they're doing it they'll

reveal just like they did with the Cyber

truck they'll reveal what it looks like

and then they'll go through kind of

engineering for manufacturing so that'll

take a year or two yeah yeah yeah wow

wow okay so uh all in on Tesla except

when Jerome Powell gets angry huh