A Biden Replacement will CRASH the Stock Market.

could a Joe Biden replacement crash the

stock market my belief is yes here's

exactly why let's get right into it

first there's a coupon expiring today

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that's said and you get my Buy sell

alerts when we trade that said take a

look at this this is my thesis you get a

replacement announcement for Joe Biden

and I'll explain why but I think the

market has a potential of trending down

into the election now I'm not exactly

sure when that downtrend will begin but

I think it will be here by the typical

election selloff period which is usually

your September to October period we saw

it happen in 2020 we typically see it

happened in an average election we

expect it will happen again this year

now of course we already anticipated

well most people should at least so it

shouldn't come as a surprise in my

opinion this is not the time to freak

out and be fearful and pay hand and sell

everything this is just typical election

fear now again I'm going to explain why

a Biden replacement might cause this to

happen but after that I expect broadly a

v-shaped recovery to continue as long as

we're going towards the direction of a

soft landing and no second wave of

inflation my belief is that yes the

longer term inflation we've seen between

21 23 will end up proving in the long

run to fade away to be a CO blip and we

won't see a second wave I don't see a

second wave happening in Commodities I

don't see a second wave happening in

Goods pricing and I don't think the

services pricing that we're seeing is

going to remain sticky for as long as

people think so that's why I'm in

Direction train America Nike Swoosh

recovery soft Landing I do think there

will be a dip before the election though

I can't guarantee this obviously is just

my opinion why do I think a Biden

replacement would be the Catalyst for

that moment well mostly because after

the debate we went from Flat at this FIB

retracement level of between 478 to 481

we bobbed around there for quite a while

we've had trouble staying above that

line now after that debate with Biden

and Trump has gone so miserably for

Biden markets are really pricing in a

Joe a a Donald Trump presidency and the

stock market generally when it

transitions from Democrat to Republican

moves up at a higher Pace though no

matter who wins generally after someone

is chosen as president the stock market

rallies absent a recession this is why

my crystal ball says post recession we

go up a recess so sorry post elction we

go up now how much we go up depends on

if we're sticking on the path of soft

Landing or we start pricing in a

recession I'd probably put this at about

a 7030 right here so I'd go

7030 now right now where we sit I'm at

about a 6.7 is on what I call the meat

Kevin Bull bear scale in other words I'm

not a full 10 all in on margin YOLO

we're going to the Moon although you

could probably do that with Tesla for

probably another two weeks I think Tesla

will probably have an uptrend for the

next 14 13 days uh although there could

be some red days sprinkled in there I

think the trend will be up 300's looking

you know like 295 300s looking awfully

juicy right now which we did predict the

volatility Spike and subsequent price

increase in June like June 9th or so we

made a video on that you can go back in

history and fact check man but anyway uh

so the reason I'm not full bull is

mostly because I do worry that there are

some potential downside weights that we

have some of the downside weights that

we have to pay attention to First the

economic surprise

indices unfortunately they're starting

to come in a little weaker and a little

bit more rapidly than I think people

would like uh and that's not great for

encouraging a market to continue to

Rally up though of course we've been in

environments before where the market uh

goes up despite the fact that the

economy is doing poorly so it is

possible but look over here uh uh David

uhles here posted looks like the US

economy is cooling quicker than most

analysts think Bloomberg US economic

surprise indices have dropped to a

9-year low this means economists are

actually forecasting a Rosier economy

than what's truly happening right now

which is not great combine this with

where we sit in the stock market sure

right now it says fear which would lead

some people to think oh I want to be

contrari and I'm going to go buy when

there's fear but I think what people are

missing is that you've got to look at

where the greed is the greed is on

Market momentum name a stock Nvidia for

example the greed is also in not stock

price strength or stock price breadth

the number of stocks going up but it's

also in puts and calls which is not

great it suggests there's a lot of sort

of yoloing going on uh so to speak it's

not necessarily a sign though that the

end is near and we're totally screwed

but it is uh something to say that hey

makes sense things are a little toppy

right now those are part of the reason

why I'm a little less bullish right now

especially since history tells us the

market usually sells off Donald Trump or

I should say Joe Biden uh uh getting

replaced would end up being bearish for

the market is remember the market Market

started going up under a higher

likelihood of Donald Trump being

president but if you replace Joe Biden

you actually give Democrats a chance

that they could win this November I

don't think they're going to win with

Joe Biden and then what happens is you

have to unpr Donald Trump a little bit

uh and when you unpriced Donald Trump a

little bit I think you're going to give

a little bit back to the market and

we're going to see some of that extreme

greed and some of that extreme momentum

fade a little bit and it makes somewhat

sense in my opinion with what I'm seeing

as well uh unfortunately with uh with

the market for example I was um I was

exploring let's see if I can zoom in on

this a little bit it makes it a little

hard to see uh if I can rotate oh no

that's not good all right whatever so I

was exploring Target a little bit uh

with Jack yesterday and I found it very

interesting because uh the only items

that were really selling out and it's a

little small to see here uh but most of

where the stickers were 50% off

clearance that's where we started seeing

empty shelves everything else was fully

stocked so I went around and I started

talking to some employees I'm going to

blow this up a little larger I I started

talking to some of the employees in the

Target uh and they're like yeah we you

know we've just got a lot of stuff that

we got to clear and the only way we can

really clear these things is just by

discounting them uh to me that's not

actually the sign that a sign that we

have a strong economy that's a sign that

we have underlying weakness and we're

starting to see some of that come

through in the data as well even some of

the manufactur ing data that came out

this week not great really does signal a

Slowdown in the economy we could be

having some summer enthusiasm but once

we get into Q3 I'm a little less

enthusiastic I'm also slightly concerned

about this uh for what we expect for

Tesla and people get mad at me for

saying this but I'm just saying like I I

I if I were a Tesla investor I would

certainly be pricing in some

consideration that we might be an envir

that's much better we might be an

environment in Q3 Q4 where numbers come

in worse because rates are still high

unfortunately I think the Federal

Reserve will be way too slow to actually

reacting to this let me go to another

video here I think the Federal Reserve

will be way too slow and I look at 2008

see look clearance it's cleared uh with

the exception of those bottom ones they

had a lot of those we were kind of

looking at those wondering like oh okay

that's interesting they just have a lot

of those but generally as we went

through this we found I'll fast forward

a little bit wherever the uh yellow

stickers were sold out everywhere else

it was packed except that Transformers I

guess nobody liked that Transformers

there were obviously it wasn't perfect

but it was pretty clear that probably

nine out of 10 times yellow sticker sold

out or it was like misarranged like some

of these things are misarranged or

there's only one product left on the

Shelf found that very interesting uh so

yeah look at that there's the clearance

see all the clearance ones sell out but

the most of the non-clearance ones don't

uh this was true uh at at multiple

different targets in fact uh take a look

at this this was the non-clearance

luggage packed packed to the brim no

clearance theoretically likely because

it's the summer travel season a lot of

sales going on on TV is not a surprise

although the fact that you can get a 65

in for some of these prices now like

$3.99 is pretty remarkable something

else that I noticed is that they were

doing sales on toilet paper and there

was actually some research I was reading

that people are buying less toilet paper

bathroom tissues uh uh you know tissues

in general paper towels because they're

starting to try to cut back on the house

sold Essentials because money is so

tight right now that's not great uh Jack

likeed that that said 669 I'm not sure

he wanted a pict why he wanted a picture

of that we had Oreos over I don't know

why they have Oreo Sour Patch now that's

just like somewhat disturbing to me uh

but something else that's worth looking

at that I thought was really cool if you

have never been to uh a a Nerf gun Arena

before this was like super cool that was

Jack uh and myself and uh we're like

let's uh let's just go Rush some people

and try to go shoot some kids with Nerf

guns this is really fun uh so I don't

know I I found it very entertaining I I

probably got all right what am I doing

over

here yeah we we're on their side getting

wrecked over here but it was worth it I

think once they hit us I was out over

here uh but anyway so um I do think that

was only 12 bucks you could be there all

day it was crazy thanks Idaho uh anyway

I do think there's some potential

weakness uh coming and that a Biden

replacement that gives Democrats a

Chance is going to lead to some pricing

in of a Democrat and and that could lead

to some softening in this market rally

that we're seeing right now I think it's

in the short term a little blowing off

the top a bit now don't get me wrong I'm

all forward okay my my fund this is not

an advertisement for it so I'm not going

to mention its name I just run an

actively managed ETF it is at alltime

highs right now it's doing really really

well I think we've Managed IT uh as as

well as uh as possible of course there

are always things you look at you're

like okay yeah next time we'll do this a

little differently this time a little

differently but doing really well uh and

uh so so like I'm all for it like I I

want to be bullish it is easier for me

to run my businesses house hack my other

you know broker dealer startup and the

other things I'm doing it's easier in a

bullish environment the point of this

video is just to warn that I do think a

period of uncertainty will happen I

don't know if that starts in July or if

that ends up starting in August

September October but I'm just going to

Be watchful for it maybe we get to

continue rallying for July go take some

profits on the Longs or not uh just know

when when it starts coming down that is

very normal and it doesn't necessarily

mean everything's going into the pooper

I'm long run bullish here hope this is

helpful for you sorry Bitcoin back at 58

that was my target for it uh just a few

weeks ago and here we are let's see if

he can bounce off of this anyway thanks

for watching we'll see you in the next

one goodbye good luck use the coupon

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congratulations man you have done so

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