…this is really good news

right folks so let's talk about what

happened this morning it's important to

pay attention to because obviously the

last couple days the market was red

today we're sort of isolating it like

essentially zero with the indices

although some individual stocks are

doing just totally fine amc announced

the stock split and we've got a little

bit of a deeper inversion of the yield

curve between the 5 and the 10 and the

10 and the two have also inverted so

it's like oh no what what is this

potentially going to signal well i want

to show you what it could potentially

signal uh but first just quick mention

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what they do now take a look at this

though so you over here

i tweeted this yesterday the ten two

yield curve just inverted i wrote this

last night uh this happened in uh july

august of 2019 and you know what

happened over the next 12 months

thereafter the s p 500 returned to 18.25

percent the nasdaq returned 60 and tesla

stock returned 869 percent uh in it one

of the things that i noticed about the

yield curve his head historically the

yield curve inverts when there's a lot

of fear or uncertainty that oh no

something bad's gonna happen and

generally it's it's signaled a recession

especially the ten two now there's a

debate does the yield curve have to stay

inverted for a long period of time if

the covet pandemic didn't happen would

we have uninverted the yield curve and

not had a recession i mean think about

it would we have had a recession without

the pandemic happening right uh and so

it's like did the yield curve in 2019

just happened to invert because of

short-term uh bond market fluctuations

and and is it maybe not the best judge

of recession nobody really knows it has

been very consistent that at some point

in the next 18 to 24 months we might hit

a session but hey you look at this yield

curve inversion from the code pandemic

it's like oh that's not that bad but you

know what else is not that bad is that

jobs report that we got this morning you

know we know the unemployment rate fell

to about 3.6 percent black unemployment

fell to 6.2 percent some of the greatest

levels that we've seen in a while take a

look at this one down here

the number of permanent job losers

declined to 1.4 million in march and

that's a little different from february

of 2020 when the number of permanent job

losers were 1.3 million that's great but

another thing that's also great is that

almost every category gained jobs with

the exception of warehousing and

transportation roughly flat down about a

thousand but the uh what was really

great is the month-over-month payrolls

increased about 13 cents now in january

we i was really really sad because we

had the sign of a wage price spiral

starting the report came in showing us

an 8.6

rate of wage growth month over month and

then annualized right that's terrible

because that's more than the rate of

inflation was at that point which

signals a wage price spiral this is

really bad and the university of

michigan was telling us the same thing

uh now that ended up getting revised

down to 6.6 so they changed it like and

then it's like oh my gosh how

manipulated is this data right but

anyway the next month of february was

zero and now it's 4.8

these are great all three of these

numbers here are fine no wage price

spiral like one of my main fears that

could have led us to a stronger like

paul volcker style recession is gone uh

not only do i not think we're going to

get paul volcker by the federal reserve

but i do think that uh we are in a

situation where

our employment market is not overly hot

it's hot we got like 10 million jobs

available right but it's not at a point

where i think we need to get paul

volcker which if we had a wage price

spiral the fed would do everything in

their power to make sure uh the wage

price spiral does not become entrenched

that would be very very very bad

so uh where does that put us now well i

mean if you think about it

obviously with a strong jobs report uh

markets are going to probably price in a

little bit of a higher chance of that 50

basis point hike so you're going to see

a little bit of fluctuations on this i

think this is why when we got a good

jobs report this morning at 5 30 a.m i

was watching this i'm like of course

nasdaq like instantly drops half of a

percent why well because people are

worried about that potential uh 50 basis

point hike and i look at that even and

i'm like dude this is not paul volcker

like i was worried in january that we

were gonna get some kind of paul volcker

which would be like hey we're just gonna

raise rates two percent now because

inflation's so out of control they're

not they're not doing that uh you know

even if they do a 50 bp hike which now

is getting priced in even more right now

we look at about a 76 market a chance of

of a 50 basis point hike so the market's

kind of like yeah

we're we're pretty confident 50 bps can

happen and even if it happens who cares

and so this is where i also

look at uh where we are market wise we

don't have any massive new fears to

bring us down to like that triple bounce

that we had on the qqq here we'll go

ahead and pull up uh the qqq exactly and

uh we'll look at it together right here

look we we don't really have any new

scary news uh the reports that are

coming in now are either benign or

not worse like sure things haven't

gotten like substantially better but if

if anything oil prices commodity prices

are starting to settle a little bit uh

it looks like russia is focusing mostly

just on the don boss which we expected

we're moving away from this idea of an

all-out war we're moving away from this

idea of nuclear weapons russia is not

cutting off gas supplies to europe

things are settling down like cooler

heads are starting to prevail now but

why do we have a little bit of red here

well because quite frankly we shouldn't

be in these upper bounds until really

war ends until some of the madness goes

away we should not be trading above the

or in the range of the top third or the

s p 500 uh or the uh the nasdaq which we

kind of still are actually no we just

dropped below it and on the spy we wore

yesterday uh so uh not a big deal to me

now i was planning on shorting

the nasdaq when we got into this level

because i think we would have had a

pretty large drop this right here

falling off a 61.8 down to 50

not super excited if anything yesterday

i bought the dip a little bit uh because

i'm keeping a lot of cash on the side

for the expectation that we're gonna

have some form of maybe a little drop

and then a rebound but not a lot i mean

i'm 85 in this market i have more shares

now than i did before uh in january so

i'm really happy about that and you are

seeing some individual stocks run pretty

decently uh and in my opinion one of the

things that you can do in this market is

is really consider exposing yourself to

some upside protection like if you got

some 90 calls for example on on trade

desk those are killing it today uh if

you got some inexpensive out of the

money call options on an arc invest or a

matterport some stocks that have been

depressed hey those could be inexpensive

ways to either potentially lose all the

money you put on that upside hedge or

make a decent amount of money but that

way you don't have to go all in if you

don't want to so it gives you an option

of literally gives you an option

right just be careful you know obviously

options can lose value very quickly

you've got faded decay you don't want to

hold these things too darn long but

those are things to keep in mind those

are things to consider not seeing wage

price spiral not worried about the

economy really i'm super bullish so i

don't want to be like mega bull here and

say hey go reckless like me personally

just to be transparent i've got about

430 000

in short-term call options like anywhere

between four to eight weeks i think that

bond rotation we had yesterday uh and

the day before is pretty much over

wouldn't be surprised if we end up the

day green here and then end up having a

pretty green period of time with a brief

pause for cpi data which we expect to be

bad anyway uh coming out you know in a

couple weeks uh but then pretty much

chillaxing until uh the fed actually uh

has their meeting at the beginning of

may so we got quite a bit of time to

wait for that 50 basis point hike and

really even if we get it who freaking

cares anyway those are my thoughts

thanks so much for watching go check out

extra by the link down below and folks

we'll see you next time thanks bye