Iran - Israel STRIKES: Full Friday Update

I think those are high hurdles for the

Iranians to get to, but at some point in

time, their country will continue to get

uh devastated and will need to come to

the table. And look, I know something

important to your viewers. We have yet

to see a heavy impact on the Iranian

economy, particularly the energy sector.

And u you know, if Isra Israel moves to

that first, attacking uh in large

measure sites such as Car Island, that

could have a dramatic impact on energy

production, on the global economy. And

so there are all these incentives for

there to be some type of negotiation.

The question is, given the regime, its

head, its popularity, or I should say

unpopularity with the Iranian people,

what's it going to take to get them

there? Let's break some of this down.

Here's the latest that you've got to

understand on Israel. Yesterday, we

heard Donald Trump tell us that, look,

we're going to wait 2 weeks. This is a

form of taco, okay? Trump always

chickens out. Now, is that necessarily a

bad thing? No. In fact, in the meet

Kevin Alpha report, we said best case

scenario is that we would get some form

of negotiated solution before strikes.

Very critical. Ideally, and best case

scenario, negotiated solution before

strikes. Simply put, let's get some of

the latest though. So, when we look at

what else is going on, we're still

having this exchange of, you know,

ballistic missiles as well as air

strikes. So, essentially strikes between

the two. The United States is trying to

sanction Iran more. But something that

is important to remember is the JCPOA,

the the Joint Comprehensive Plan of

Action with Iran did lead Iran to join

in on agreements to limit in the

enrichment of uranium. They are now

offering to limit the enrichment of enra

of uranium. Again, this is uh supposedly

the talk that's going on in Geneva right

now to have peace talks with uh Iran uh

and the international community. Now,

what is interesting about the enrichment

of uranium? So, I want you to think

about this for a moment. When you

utilize U238

in peaceful programs such as in the Iraq

heavywater nuclear facility, remember

that one that just got attacked over the

weekend? There's the Iraq heavy water

reactor that's used primarily for uh you

know research purposes or whatever. That

facility was just bombed by the Israelis

and a lot of people are saying, "Oh my

gosh, this could lead to you know

fallout or larger issues." But it

actually should for you paint a bigger

issue. Not so much one to follow, but

one that helps you understand why even

peaceful use of a nuclear reactor could

end up leading to

a Iran having a weapon. So, here's that

reactor that was directly bombed. You

could see that here. Israel, by the way,

also released uh footage. I'll pull it

up in just a moment here. Israel

released footage of the facility being

bombed. But what's important is

understanding what happens when you have

a peaceful uranium energy program and

how that could still help you get a

bomb. So, this is a little tricky. I'll

explain it right after I show this

little footage here because it's really

cool. Uh, so look at this. This is the

video right here. And we'll play it from

the beginning here. There's the reactor.

There it is. Inactive. They say

inactive. inactive. Some people say it

was still, you know, active for research

purposes or whatever. And here you could

see the uh footage of the uh direct

strike, which is kind of remarkable. Uh

so

some of the footage that you can see out

there is just insane. Just actual war

footage of this happening. But here's

why it matters. Okay, we're going to

take out some really heavy technology

here. We're going to take this piece of

paper and I'm going to explain

something. And you should like take a

screenshot of this and understand this

when it comes to Iran. Okay. So when you

have uranium 238, you basically just

have ore. Okay. So most of uranium, most

of it's, you know, mass weight is

basically uranium 238. That's pretty

much what you find in ore. Okay. There

are a few things you could do with

uranium 238.

You can use it in peaceful energy

programs and you could use it with a

little smidgen like 3 to 5% of U235

to create a peaceful energy program.

Okay, great. when you create or use uh

let's call it 97%

U238

uh and let's call it 3% of U235

which is your weaponsgrade uh enriched

uranium. When you use these in an energy

reactor to for for peaceful purposes,

you end up creating plutonium.

I want to say it's P239

if I have that correct. Kind of like the

handgun. Plutonium. Yeah, it is.

Plutonium uh 239.

Okay. Plutonium 239 is one of the

byproducts. is basically when 238 gains

a neutron and becomes plutonium 239. The

irony of this is that you can start with

this peaceful initiative that this is

just a peaceful energy reactor program.

But the byproduct of this peaceful

reactor program is plutonium 239, which

guess what you could do with plutonium

239?

You can create the bomb.

Okay. The other option uh is you could

just go with uh enriching or we call it

centrifuging

uh 238 and you try to separate out a lot

of the 235. You do this in a centrifugal

process and I always get this backwards

but I believe that the heavier stuff

goes to the outside. So the 238 and then

the U35 the lighter stuff goes to the

bottom. I I believe cuz basically this

is a big spinning centriuge and the 238

goes to the outside and then in the

gaseous state the 235 goes to the bottom

and you could separate it through you

know valves or or suction valves or you

know gas valves or whatever right okay

so then what can you do with U235?

Well, you could either say, "Oh, don't

worry. The 235 is just for peaceful

purposes, or you could create

the bomb." Okay, this this is like a

very oversimplified

explanation here, but this is why people

are worried about Iran doing any kind of

enriching at all. Because if you

consider that, oh, we're just going to

have a peaceful program. Well, in order

to have a peaceful program, you still

need weapons uranium to begin the 238

reaction. And if you have this nuclear

reactor going, you create plutonium 239,

which could be used in a bomb. Okay? But

in order to have this peaceful reaction,

you have to have U235 centrifuged out of

the 238 ore. But when you do that, what

do you end up with? Well, you end up

with a lot of U235, which could also be

then put into those energy reactors or a

bomb. So either way, okay, no matter how

you have an enrichment program, no

matter what you do, whether it's

peaceful or not, you are going to end up

with components that are possible for a

bomb. Okay? Peaceful. Uh so so you have

the peaceful one creates peaceful

plutonium for a bomb. You have the non-

peaceful one, you create the components

for a bomb. So this is why all of these

negotiations around Iran stopping their

enrichment of uranium completely is

probably best case scenario. So I would

say best case scenario Iran does zero

enrichment. They entirely give up

enrichment. The next best case scenario

is Iran says, "Okay, we'll agree to

inspections and we'll agree to some kind

of massive limitations on what we can

do." The way you limit that is you

basically monitor how much 235 they

create that it's just enough for the

peaceful purposes. And then you monitor

what they do with bomb equipment. Not

only do you monitor where the heavily

enriched uranium is, the 235 uh and and

other uh and again I'm way

oversimplifying here, but you also

monitor where that plutonium goes,

right? That is an option. It's a less

ideal than people just ending the

enrichment program. That is exactly why

the United States is open to potentially

attacking the uh afford nuclear facility

because people are sick and tired of

every time for the last 30 years Iran

goes back to enriching. They end up with

enough crap to make a bomb because again

even in the peaceful process you get

material to make a bomb. So it kind of

is logical when people say oh Israel has

enough material to make a bomb. Yeah.

because even through the peaceful

process you end up getting bomb

byproducts uh which is kind of wild to

think of uh but anyway so uh we do have

uh Geneva talks beginning for peace

talks this combining with Donald Trump's

uh two you know sort of weak TBD if

we're going to strike or whatever will

lead to calming of tensions in this

region at least

globally you know you still have the

potential for strikes vis you know vice

versa basically each side striking each

other but broadly and for the longer

term these discussions around enrichment

are the most important. Now my point of

view uh is what everybody really wants

to pay attention to is not only the loss

of life but ultimately and limiting that

uh and hopefully seeing strikes maybe

move towards more you know less

population centric targets that would be

nice. Uh however, the big issue that you

have right now is that 3 hours ago we

got an update from Iran that quote zero

enrichment will quote undoubtedly be

rejected. And this is where you kind of

have this question of like this, you

know, uh, uh, interviewer on CNBC was

saying, okay, is Iran publicly saying

that they won't go for zero enrichment

or are they publicly saying that and

then quietly saying, we're open to zero

enrichment, you know, if we get some

other opportunities. Okay, what other

opportunities could there be? Well, the

other things that matter to Iran

are oil exports. In fact, Iran is

skyrocketing their oil exports right now

to try to get as much oil as they can

out into the public uh uh markets

because they realize that they are an

easy target uh for uh Israel to strike.

Uh in fact, if you look at uh in fact,

I've got some pictures here. Hold on,

let me grab those really quickly. Uh,

all right. So, we've got

some photos of tank reserves that uh

Iran has, and they're pumping them up to

not only get them out of areas

where they are at risk of being

attacked, but they're also being pumped

up to get them onto ships as soon as

possible so they can make as much money

as they possibly can. So the first

picture I want you to see is uh this one

on oil tanks. And this is a little

interesting to keep in mind or how this

works. Oil tanks have a floating lid to

prevent vapors uh from separating from

the oil. And so you have these floating

lids on these giant oil canisters uh you

know oil wells or whatever you want to

call them. And so the lid moves up with

the level of oil. And so you can see how

low the lid levels are based on the

shadow on these various different oil uh

wells here. And uh this was a photo from

before the strikes. So June 11th. And if

you jump in over here, you could see by

June 18th, the oil wells are

substantially more full as you're

preparing to pump them out uh into a

sailable environment. Uh another thing

that you're finding is that ships that

used to dock around the Car Island oil

terminal basically now are away from the

terminal. But what they're doing is

they're coming in, grabbing oil,

leaving, coming in, grabbing oil,

leaving. Like they're they're sort of

rapidly relay racing in and out. And the

suggestion of this from oil

professionals is that Iran is secretly

trying to get as much oil as they

possibly can out for two reasons. One,

because of geopolitical issues, oil

prices go up, which means they get more

profit per barrel. So, in a weird way,

the more the conflict goes on, the

higher oil prices go, the more Iran

makes in terms of money and the more

they can keep funding their war. There

is now also talk that aircraft, cargo

aircraft are potentially, and this is

talk, could be a rumor, but that cargo

aircraft are leaving Russia and coming

to Iran with uh resupplies of weapons.

Uh, okay. There is now a comment. I just

see here this is okay. Yeah. No, that's

that's older. That's fine. And then

there is talk here. Yeah. Okay. Of these

cargo planes potentially coming from

Russia with restructs of these

hypersonic missiles or ballistic

missiles. Uh Iran, for example, just now

launched 35 missiles, which is a step up

from the sort of more 5 to 10 Baldies

we've been seeing recently. So, you can

see this is nowhere really near getting

close to done. uh even though

negotiations are going on. Since last

Friday, Iran has now launched 520

missiles against uh Israel, which is,

you know, quite a shocking level. Uh

expectations were that they'd have about

2,000 in their arsenal. And Israel is

expected to potentially only have

another 7 days of defensive munitions,

though I would anticipate that the

United States would be willing to

restock those very rapidly. So, keeping

an eye on that as well. So, uh, in

addition to these oil exports from Iran,

there's at these higher prices, there's

also talk that there could just be

direct trade for more weapons, uh, and

discounted oil to sneak past sanctions

from Russia. Russia seems to be a lot

more supportive right now than China.

China is not providing a lot of support

other than in the uh sort of verbal

sphere if you will uh suggesting that uh

China condemns these attacks against

Iran's sovereignty but really we're not

getting uh broader support from China.

Additionally, uh, Israel is potentially

also considering striking

Iran with a commando group in that Fordo

enrichment facility itself rather than

also having to utilize the United States

bunker busting bombs. So, uh, this

Israel has done before. For example, in

Syria, Syria had a uh a commando uh raid

uh into uh to eliminate an Iranian

um uh bunker. This was back in September

of last year and they had 120 aircraft

involved in striking around the area,

providing air cover and superiority to

their commandos who could then come in

and raid a bunk uh raid an underground

bunker where Iran was believed to be

enriching or storing uh enriched uranium

either creating enriched uranium or or

um uh you know uh storing it. In

addition to producing missiles quote

unquote deep into the mountain side,

obviously if you use commandos, you

don't have to blow up the entire

mountain side because you could just

break through the doors and and uh you

know blast your way through like Tanya

planting C4. Now, the other option that

Israel also has, obviously they could

use a strategic nuclear weapon, which

would be really bad because of the

fallout considerations, but another

option is literally just forget the

30,000lb bunker busting bomb, just drop

dozens and dozens of 2,000 to 4,000lb

bombs, which Biden did authorize finally

the sale of those 2,000 lb bombs or

gift, whatever you want to call it, uh

to uh to Israel. And the reason I say

that is because some things are gifted,

some things are, you know, heavily

discounted, other things are sold. It a

lot of it is just marketing to the

American and Israeli population. So, we

don't always know exactly what's going

on. So, Israel has done these things

again as recently as last September in

Syria,

uh, where Israel has done these commando

raids against these tunnels. Another

concern that I have with the United

States using a 30 lb bunker busting bomb

is what if

we miss? Then we're going to we're going

to be very embarrassed. We're going to

look like losers who have lost our

military edge. And so there's a real

concern of missing and failing. And if

you miss and fail, well then the United

States looks like a clown. Uh and it's

not good. Now, I was I've been talking

to folks like how do we get the

intelligence to actually know where to

bomb? I've previously suggested you we

could have on the ground intelligence,

which is highly likely what we would

need. But another thing that is possible

is that some of the intelligence that we

have had through satellite imagery when

these bunkers were originally built

could be in our archives. So, we know

exactly where and how these these

underground bunkers were built while

they were being built, you know, maybe

20, 30 years ago or 15 years ago,

whenever they were built. It's a it's a

fascinating potential uh idea for how we

would actually have the precision to

know uh where the uh the exact

centrifugal tunnels are to strike them.

Uh that said, there's also the broader

concern that more countries uh are going

to want uh and this is the big issue

that if Iran is encouraged or allowed to

have a nuclear bomb, that countries like

Syria and Turkey would want to have a

bomb as well, which is obviously

undesirable for because now we would

have more countries proliferating a

nuclear arsenal. China has already added

a 100 arsenals to its uh 100 warheads to

its arsenal and they've been doing so

every single year, sort of just growing

it by about a 100 per year. Uh Russia

obviously has a very large nuclear

arsenal. Israel has a large nuclear

arsenal. And there's some concern that

if Iran has a bomb, then Turkeykey's

going to get on board. Syria is going to

get on board. We're really walking away

from this 1968 style policy of nuclear

non-prololiferation and getting more

towards proliferation which again seen

as bad. So where do we go from here? TVD

Trump says we can't let Iran have a

nuclear bomb. That sounds good, but are

we actually going to be able to achieve

the prevention of that? That's critical.

uh and

strikes by the United States, those

strikes, best case scenario, some

negotiated very limited enrichment or no

enrichment, much better case scenario.

Hopefully, we could be uh in that sort

of direction. So, so that's my that's my

opinion uh on the nukes and where we

stand with enrichment, why there's such

problems with enrichment uh and why uh

this this Israeli crisis and Iranian

crisis is actually really complicated

because there is no easy answer. And so

while it's easy to argue that, you know,

Trump is tacoing on the strikes, you

know, Trump always chickens out, it also

makes sense because potentially on the

verge of embarrassing ourselves and

maybe there are better ways to get to

zero enrichment, especially since some

think that if we struck,

Iran would do whatever it could with its

stored highlyenriched uranium to just

rush a bomb. Why? This is the other

people think people ask me, they're

like, Kevin, why would they rush to make

a bomb? Because look at North Korea.

North Korea has nuclear weapons and we

don't attack them. We don't strike them.

It's kind of the perfect way to have

what's called nuclear deterrence.

Basically, once you have a bomb, you

could deter countries like Israel from

attacking you. Whereas Israel is

attacking now because is Iran does not

yet have a bomb. Uh very interesting. So

anyway, that said, there's obviously a

lot that's involved when it comes to

these nuclear talks. Hopefully this adds

a lot of perspective to where your

mindset is on what's going on with uh

Israel and Iran.